Tag: Society of Actuaries

14th Actuarial Speculative Fiction Submissions

Mary Pat Campbell

Link: https://www.soa.org/sections/2020-speculative-fiction-contest/

Excerpt:

The 14th Speculative Fiction Contest is over, and we now get to find out which story is the readers’ favorite!

Read each of the stories submitted by our creative and imaginative actuaries. Pick up to three of your favorite stories and vote for no more than three, so that we have a true Readers’ Choice Award. We will award the author of the story getting the most votes a specially designed Speculative Fiction Zoom background and an SOA branded gift. Be sure to tell your friends about this contest. Get them to read the stories and pick their favorites too!

Voting online must occur from March 8 – April 15. On May 1 this award, as well as all the other awards will be announced on the SOA website.

Publication Date: March 2021

Publication Site: Society of Actuaries

A Primer on Insurance Policies and Genetics

Mary Pat Campbell

Link: https://www.soa.org/resources/research-reports/2021/primer-ins-policies-genetics/

Full report: https://www.soa.org/globalassets/assets/files/resources/research-report/2021/primer-ins-policies-genetics-report.pdf

Graphic:

Excerpt:

A new subset of Somatic non-blueprint information is the growing field of Epigenetics, defined as changes ‘above
the genetics,’ where it has recently been found that lifestyle choices also induce non-heritable physical or chemical
changes directly on a person’s DNA after birth, and can be measured by isolating the DNA and revealing these
features. The U.S. Center for Disease Control states: “Epigenetics is the study of how your behaviors and
environment can cause changes that affect the way your genes work. Unlike genetic changes, epigenetic changes
are reversible and do not change your DNA sequence.” (9)


An example of the latter is a finding that the tips of our chromosomes – called telomeres – can shorten or lengthen
in correlation with health status and ‘biological aging,’ a finding that was the subject of a 2009 Nobel Prize (10). An
additional example of epigenetics is in tobacco use, shown below, and generally discussed at the 2020 SOA Health
Conference by Dr. Brian Chen at this link https://webcasts.soa.org/products/actuarial-innovation-and-technologyupdate-on-recent-research#tab-product_tab_speaker_s.

Author(s): James Timmins

Publication Date: March 2021

Publication Site: Society of Actuaries

COVID-19 Impact on Long-Term Care Insurance 2020 Survey

Mary Pat Campbell

Link: https://www.soa.org/resources/experience-studies/2021/covid-impact-ltc-2020-survey/

Full study: https://www.soa.org/globalassets/assets/files/resources/experience-studies/2021/covid-impact-ltc-2020-survey.pdf

Graphic:

Excerpt:

Overall, the survey results show that COVID-19 has had an impact on emerging LTC insurance experience through
higher mortality (for both active and disabled lives) and lower claim incidence. Results on voluntary lapse rates were
mixed; however, premium grace period extensions due to COVID-19 may have contributed to differences in
reporting. The survey results also indicated that, in many cases, the impact of COVID-19 has not yet been studied or
there is not yet data available. This was especially true in relation to studying COVID-19’s impact across various
characteristics (gender, attained age, marital status, situs).


For questions studying the impact of COVID-19 on specific assumptions, the effect was measured on a multiplicative
basis compared to the expectation without COVID-19, except for voluntary lapse, which was measured on an
additive basis. See examples in the full survey questions in Appendix A for additional detail.

Authors: Mike Bergerson, FSA, MAAA, Principal and Consulting Actuary
Andrew Dalton, FSA, MAAA, Principal and Consulting Actuary
Robert Eaton, FSA, MAAA, Principal and Consulting Actuary
James Stoltzfus, FSA, MAAA, Principal and Consulting Actuary

Milliman

Publication Date: March 2021

Publication Site: Society of Actuaries

2020 Excess Deaths in the US general population by Age and Sex

Mary Pat Campbell

Link: https://www.soa.org/resources/research-reports/2021/excess-deaths-gen-population/

Report link: https://www.soa.org/globalassets/assets/files/resources/research-report/2021/excess-deaths-gen-population.pdf

Graphic:

Excerpt:

Excluding the first two and a half months of 2020 before COVID-19 deaths were prevalent, the total U.S. mortality A/E ratio ranged between 119% and 121%, with about 84% of the excess deaths identified as due to COVID-19. Considering the full year of 2020, the A/E ranged between 114% and 116%.

Deaths for people under age 15 were lower than expected, but all older ages showed excess mortality. The following table considers the A/E ratios for the period after the emergence of COVID-19 and uses a fiveyear trend on death rates by ages and sex to set the expected deaths.

Author(s): Rick Leavitt, ASA, MAAA

Publication Date: February 2021

Publication Site: Society of Actuaries

U.S. Death Counts Have Climbed for All Adult Age Groups: Actuary

Mary Pat Campbell

Link: https://www.thinkadvisor.com/2021/02/25/u-s-death-counts-have-climbed-for-all-adult-age-groups-actuary/

Excerpt:

The actual number of deaths for people of all ages has been 18.4% higher than the expected number.

For women, the worst actual-to-expected death ratio is for the 35-44 age group.

For men, the highest percentage of excess deaths was was for the 35-54 age group.

Author(s): Allison Bell

Publication Date: 25 February 2021

Publication Site: Think Advisor