Tag: recession

Millions retired early during the pandemic. Many are now returning to work, new data shows.

Mary Pat Campbell

Link: https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2022/05/05/retirement-jobs-work-inflation-medicare/

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Excerpt:

Roughly 2.4 million additional Americans retired in the first 18 months of the pandemic than expected, making up the majority of the 4.2 million people who left the labor force between March 2020 and July 2021, according to Miguel Faria-e-Castro, a senior economist at the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.

The percentage of retirees returning to work has picked up momentum in recent months, hitting a pandemic high of 3.2 percent in March, according to Indeed. In interviews with nearly a dozen workers who recently “un-retired,” many said they felt comfortable returning to work now that they’ve gotten the coronavirus vaccine and booster shots. Almost all said they’d taken on jobs that were more accommodating of their needs, whether that meant being able to work remotely, travel less or set their own hours.

“This is primarily a story of a tight labor market,” said Bunker of Indeed, who added that there was a similar rebound in people returning from retirement after the Great Recession. “For so much of last year, the big question in the labor market was: Where are all the workers? This year we’re seeing that they’re coming back.”

Author(s): Abha Bhattarai

Publication Date: 6 May 2022

Publication Site: WaPo

417(e) Barometer

Mary Pat Campbell

Link: https://burypensions.wordpress.com/2022/05/24/417e-barometer/

Excerpt:

The 417(e) segment rates for April, 2022 were just released and two takeaways:

  1. 50 basis point increase in one month indicates that lump sums being paid out of Defined Benefit plans will be greatly decreased in 2023 from 2022; and
  2. The economy is in a recession similar to 2008-9.

Author(s): John Bury

Publication Date: 24 May 2022

Publication Site: Burypensions

5 Ways the New Stock Market Rollercoaster Could Affect Life Insurers

Mary Pat Campbell

Link: https://www.thinkadvisor.com/2022/06/16/5-ways-the-new-stock-market-rollercoaster-could-affect-life-insurers/

Excerpt:

1. Clients could swarm on life and annuity products with benefits guarantees like ants on a candy bar that fell under the picnic table.

Sales of products such as non-variable indexed annuities and non-variable indexed universal life insurance policies soar, as clients flocks to arrangements that can protect them against further drops in stock prices but help them share in gains if and when prices go back up.

Author(s): Allison Bell

Publication Date: 16 June 2022

Publication Site: Think Advisor

Equity Markets Plunge Near Bear Market Territory

Mary Pat Campbell

Link: https://content.naic.org/sites/default/files/capital-markets-hot-spot-equity-markets-may2022.pdf

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On May 19, the S&P 500 opened the day near bear market territory; i.e., at a 20% drop from a recent
high. On May 18, the S&P 500 experienced a 4% decline—the largest single-day decrease since June 2020. The last time the S&P 500 entered bear market territory was in March 2020, albeit short-lived, as
the market turned around and headed into a two-year rally that peaked in early January 2022.


The current equity market losses (and some corporate bond losses) are primarily the result of several
factors: 1) earnings reports from large American retailers, including Walmart and Target, show evidence
that the continued high inflation rate may be affecting consumer demand; 2) the war in Ukraine has
added to inflationary pressures, prompting the Federal Reserve (Fed) to increase interest rates and
reduce bond holdings; and 3) recent COVID-19 shutdowns in China have led to a slowdown in the
world’s second largest economy.

Author(s): Jennifer Johnson and Michele Wong

Publication Date: 19 May 2022

Publication Site: NAIC Capital Markets Special Report

Has COVID Affected Pensions for Workers without Social Security?

Mary Pat Campbell

Link:https://crr.bc.edu/briefs/has-covid-affected-pensions-for-workers-without-social-security/

PDF: https://crr.bc.edu/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/SLP81.pdf

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At the outset of the pandemic recession, many feared it would undermine workers’ employer-sponsored retirement plans.

State and local employees who are not covered by Social Security would have been particularly vulnerable, as they lack the buffer this program offers.

Their employer defined benefit plans would have been hurt by a long recession with poor investment returns and reduced contributions due to tax shortfalls.

Instead, these plans exceeded their return targets; tax revenues held up; and government sponsors got stimulus aid, so plan funded ratios actually improved.

And long-term structural headwinds such as negative cash flows and aggressive return targets still pose little risk to their ability to pay future benefits.

Author(s):Jean-Pierre Aubry and Kevin Wandrei

Publication Date: January 2022

Publication Site: Center for Retirement Research at Boston College, Working Paper

Covid Is Hitting Workers Differently Than the 2008 Financial Crisis

Mary Pat Campbell

Link: https://www.ineteconomics.org/perspectives/blog/covid-is-hitting-workers-differently-than-the-financial-crisis

Excerpt:

In a new INET working paper, we examine inequality in employment outcomes across social groups during recessions. We take a comparative perspective, studying results from two recent and severe US recessions: the “Great Recession” linked with the global financial crisis beginning in late 2007 and the “lockdown” recession caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. Comparing these two events presents an interesting case study to explore inequality in recessions.

The severity of a recession depends both on how much employment declines and the persistence of those declines. The primary job-months lost statistic in our analysis is designed to capture both of these dimensions. This measure simply adds up the difference between actual employment and pre-recession employment over the recession months. For example, if the pre-recession employment trend for a demographic group was flat and a person in that group lost a job in April but went back to work in July, that person’s experience would add three job-months lost to the total in their demographic group.

Author(s): Steven Fazzari, Ella Needler

Publication Date: 19 April 2021

Publication Site: Institute for New Economic Thinking

All eyes on Chile´s Pinera as congress approves a fresh pensions drawdown

Mary Pat Campbell

Link: https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/all-eyes-chiles-pinera-congress-approves-fresh-pensions-drawdown-2021-04-23/

Excerpt:

Chile´s Congress on Friday approved by a large majority a move to allow citizens to withdraw a third tranche of their privately held pensions to assuage economic hardship wrought by the coronavirus pandemic.

Lawmakers in the country´s lower house approved the measure with 119 to 17, with 3 abstentions, prompting cheering and applause. Senators greenlighted the move earlier this week.

Previously, Congress approved two withdrawals of 10% from pension pots in July and December, with the help of members of President Sebastian Pinera’s Chile Vamos coalition who defied instructions to vote the initiatives down.

Author(s): Aislinn Laing

Publication Date: 23 April 2021

Publication Site: Reuters

How covid-19 triggered America’s first female recession in 50 years

Mary Pat Campbell

Link: https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2021/03/08/how-covid-19-triggered-americas-first-female-recession-in-50-years

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RECESSIONS TYPICALLY hit men harder than women, not least because they tend to disproportionately affect male-dominated industries, such as construction and manufacturing. In the recession of 2008-09, for example, men accounted for some three-quarters of American job losses. The most recent downturn, by contrast, has weighed on female-dominated sectors, such as retail and hospitality. Last year the share of women on American payrolls fell from 50% in March 2020 to 49.1% two months later, before inching back up to 49.8% today.

A recent paper by three economists at the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco suggests that some of the disparity can be explained by differences in parental responsibilities. Using monthly data from the Census Bureau’s Current Population Survey, the researchers analysed the labour-market outcomes of four groups of prime-age workers (those aged from 25 to 54): mothers; fathers; women without children; and men without children. They found that women suffered more than men in the wake of the pandemic but mothers fared worst of all. Between February and December the employment rate of mums dropped by 7% and their labour-force participation rate fell by 4%. Fathers, by comparison, suffered the least among the four groups—even less than childless men. Their employment and labour-force participation rates fell by 4% and 1%, respectively. Another recent study from the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis found that that the effect was biggest for mothers with children under five.

Publication Date: 8 March 2021

Publication Site: The Economist