Tag: predictions

2022 Predictions

Mary Pat Campbell

Link: https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/2022-predictions-max-rudolph/

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Regional conflicts are heating up around the world. Resource needs will accelerate the trend. Fresh water in the Himalayas provide multiple countries who have nuclear arsenals. Oil and rare earth metals could also trigger a war. Climatic events are happening more often, so the cost takes money away from solutions while making the goals seem more obvious.

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Resource depletion has no recommended debit treatment from accountants, but attribution analysis is going to do the work after the fact and charge companies for their past practices through the court system. I assume this is how the asbestos risk played out but I will need to learn more about similar historical events as these events play out. How should this enter your thought process as an investor? In 2021 I wrote 4 papers about climate; Climate System, Integrated Assessment Models, Impact of Climate Change on Investors and Municipalities and Climate Change. They are part of the SOA’s Environmental Risk Series. The impact of climate on investors will continue to evolve for many years. One topic of interest to me is how TCFD (disclosures) will play out – we could see “bad” investments like oil companies, gun makers and cigarette companies become privately owned. This would make it harder to apply peer pressure so is an important reminder to be careful what you wish for!

Author(s): Max Rudolph

Publication Date: 16 Jan 2022

Publication Site: LinkedIn

Let’s Review 50 Years of Dire Climate Forecasts and What Actually Happened

Mary Pat Campbell

Link: https://mishtalk.com/economics/lets-review-50-years-of-dire-climate-forecasts-and-what-actually-happened

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1970 Boston Globe: Scientist Predicts New Ice Age by 21st Century said James P. Lodge, a scientist at the National Center for Atmospheric Research.
1971 Washington Post: Disastrous New Ice Age Coming says S.I. Rasool at NASA.
1972 Brown University Letter to President Nixon: Warning on Global Cooling
1974 The Guardian: Space Satellites Show Ice Age Coming Fast

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1989 Salon: New York City’s West Side Highway underwater by 2019 said Jim Hansen the scientist who lectured Congress in 1988 about the greenhouse effect.
2000 The Independent: “Snowfalls are a thing of the past. Our children will not know what snow is,” says senior climate researcher.
2004 The Guardian: The Pentagon Tells Bush Climate Change Will Destroy Us. “Britain will be Siberian in less than 20 years,” the Pentagon told Bush.

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2013 The Guardian: US Navy Predicts Ice Free Arctic by 2016. “The US Navy’s department of Oceanography uses complex modeling to makes its forecast more accurate than others.
2014 John Kerry: “We have 500 days to Avoid Climate Chaos” discussed Sec of State John Kerry and French Foreign Minister Laurent Fabious at a joint meeting.

Author(s): Mike Shedlock

Publication Date: 18 February 2021

Publication Site: Mish Talk

Mantic Monday: Judging April COVID Predictions

Mary Pat Campbell

Link: https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/mantic-monday-judging-april-covid

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In April 2020, I made my yearly predictions, and many of them were about the (then new) coronavirus pandemic.

Two other people on Less Wrong, Zvi and Bucky, decided to test themselves against me by trying to predict the same questions. Zvi saw my answers beforehand; Bucky didn’t. Here’s how we did (except where otherwise stated, all predictions are for 12/31/20):

Author(s): Scott Alexander

Publication Date: 22 February 2021

Publication Site: Astral Codex Ten

Covid 2/18: Vaccines Still Work

Mary Pat Campbell
Covid 2/18: Vaccines Still Work

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Excerpt:

Oh, right, you came here to learn about Covid-19 news. The short news is great. Infections and deaths are down much faster than anticipated. The vaccine news is less great. The process continues to accelerate, but that acceleration was slower than expected, and there’s still lots of FUD about what vaccinated people can and can’t ‘safely’ do and little movement yet towards saner policy in other ways, although there are signs of moving in that direction. The new strains aren’t here in force yet, but it seems likely that will happen soon.

One potentially big thing we learned is the study from infected NBA players, which suggests that the English strain causes infections to play out over a longer period of time than the classic strain, with all the implications of that.

Another was that it got even clearer than it already was that the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines are highly effective after only one dose, and that First Doses First would be a vast improvement while we continue to have much less vaccine than we need.

Author(s): TheZvi

Publication Date: 18 February 2021

Publication Site: Don’t Worry About the Vase

Online-Trading Platform Will Let Investors Bet on Yes-or-No Questions

Mary Pat Campbell

Link: https://www.wsj.com/articles/online-trading-platform-will-let-investors-bet-on-yes-or-no-questions-11613557800

Excerpt:

Kalshi Inc. expects to launch in March. It plans to let users bet on “yes” or “no” answers to questions about future events. For instance, had the platform existed last year, it might have asked users whether a Covid-19 vaccine would be approved by the end of 2020.

The San Francisco-based startup hopes to benefit from surging interest in trading by individual investors. Individuals have jumped into stocks and options during the past year, using apps like those offered by Robinhood Markets Inc. Kalshi also hopes its marketplace will be used by people and businesses looking to hedge against risks that they face from future events.

Kalshi’s fundraising round comes after it won approval from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission in November to run a derivatives exchange. Sequoia led the Series A round, which brings the total money raised by Kalshi since its 2018 founding to about $36 million.

Author(s): Alexander Osipovich

Publication Date: 17 February 2021

Publication Site: Wall Street Journal