Tag: life expectancy

U.S. Life Expectancy Fell in First Half of 2020 as Covid-19 Deaths Surged

Mary Pat Campbell

Link: https://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-life-expectancy-fell-in-first-half-of-2020-as-covid-19-deaths-surged-11613624460

Graphic:

Excerpt:

U.S. life expectancy declined by a year during the first half of 2020, according to federal figures released Thursday that show the deadly impact of the coronavirus pandemic’s early months.

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s National Center for Health Statistics said life expectancy at birth was 77.8 years as of the end of June based on provisional estimates. The one-year decline from the previous year was the largest drop since World War II, when life expectancy fell 2.9 years between 1942 and 1943. It put life expectancy at its lowest level in the U.S. since 2006.

“It’s very concerning when we see mortality increase to such a degree,” said Elizabeth Arias, a health scientist at the center and a co-author of the report. “It gives you a clear picture of the magnitude of the effect of the Covid pandemic.”

Author(s): Janet Adamy

Publication Date: 18 February 2021

Publication Site: Wall Street Journal

THE CONSEQUENCES OF CURRENT BENEFIT ADJUSTMENTS FOR EARLY AND DELAYED CLAIMING

Mary Pat Campbell

Link: https://crr.bc.edu/wp-content/uploads/2021/01/wp_2021-3_.pdf

Abstract
Workers have the option of claiming Social Security retirement benefits at any age between 62 and 70, with later claiming resulting in higher monthly benefits. These higher monthly benefits reflect an actuarial adjustment designed to keep lifetime benefits equal, for an individual with average life expectancy, regardless of when benefits are claimed. The actuarial
adjustments, however, are decades old. Since then, interest rates have declined; life expectancy has increased; and longevity improvements have been much greater for high earners than low earners. This paper explores how changes in longevity and interest rates have affected the
fairness of the actuarial adjustment over time and how the disparity in life expectancy affects the equity across the income distribution. It also looks at the impact of these developments on the costs of the program and the progressivity of benefits.


The paper found that:
• The increases in life expectancy and the decline in interest rates argue for smaller reductions for early claiming and a smaller delayed retirement credit for later claiming.
• Specifically, the benefit at 62 should equal 77.5 percent, as opposed to 70.0 percent, of the full age-67 benefit, and the benefit at 70 should equal 119.9 percent, instead of 124.0 percent, of the full benefit.
• The outdated actuarial adjustments are a modest moneymaker for the program – about $1.9 billion in 2018, with most of the gains coming from those claiming at 62, who are typically lower earners. Surprisingly, the correlations between earnings and life expectancy and between earnings and claiming behavior have only modest implications for both the cost and progressivity of Social Security benefits.
• Finally, the cost and distributional effects of earnings-related life expectancy and claiming cannot be addressed through the actuarial adjustments for early and late claiming. They reflect the fact that high earners get their large benefits for a long time and low earners get their more modest benefits for a shorter time.

Authors: Andrew G. Biggs, Anqi Chen, and Alicia H. Munnell

Publication Date: January 2021

Publication Site: Center for Retirement Research at Boston College

Reductions in 2020 US life expectancy due to COVID-19 and the disproportionate impact on the Black and Latino populations

Mary Pat Campbell

Link: https://www.pnas.org/content/118/5/e2014746118

Abstract: COVID-19 has resulted in a staggering death toll in the United States: over 215,000 by mid-October 2020, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Black and Latino Americans have experienced a disproportionate burden of COVID-19 morbidity and mortality, reflecting persistent structural inequalities that increase risk of exposure to COVID-19 and mortality risk for those infected. We estimate life expectancy at birth and at age 65 y for 2020, for the total US population and by race and ethnicity, using four scenarios of deaths—one in which the COVID-19 pandemic had not occurred and three including COVID-19 mortality projections produced by the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation. Our medium estimate indicates a reduction in US life expectancy at birth of 1.13 y to 77.48 y, lower than any year since 2003. We also project a 0.87-y reduction in life expectancy at age 65 y. The Black and Latino populations are estimated to experience declines in life expectancy at birth of 2.10 and 3.05 y, respectively, both of which are several times the 0.68-y reduction for Whites. These projections imply an increase of nearly 40% in the Black−White life expectancy gap, from 3.6 y to over 5 y, thereby eliminating progress made in reducing this differential since 2006. Latinos, who have consistently experienced lower mortality than Whites (a phenomenon known as the Latino or Hispanic paradox), would see their more than 3-y survival advantage reduced to less than 1 y.

Authors: Theresa Andrasfay and Noreen Goldman

Reference: PNAS February 2, 2021 118 (5) e2014746118; https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2014746118

Publication Date: 2 February 2021

Publication Site: PNAS

LiveScience: US life expectancy drops dramatically due to COVID-19

Mary Pat Campbell

Link: https://www.livescience.com/us-life-expectancy-drop-covid-19.html

Description: U.S. life expectancy just dropped by more than a year — the largest decline in decades — as a result of the sheer number of deaths from COVID-19, according to estimates from a new study. This is calculating “life expectancy” from calendar year mortality.

Author: Rachael Rettner

Publication date: 16 January 2021

Publication site: LiveScience