Tag: Joe Biden

What Happens if US Debt Defaults? Just Short-Term Pain, Sages Say

Mary Pat Campbell

Link: https://www.ai-cio.com/news/what-happens-if-us-debt-defaults-just-short-term-pain-sages-say/

Excerpt:

So what is likely to occur this year?

Everything will be settled without a big problem for investors, predicts Robert Hunkeler, International Paper’s vice president of investments.

“I guess Congress and the White House will eventually finish their game of chicken, and the debt limit will be raised,” he opines. “There might be a little more drama and brinksmanship this time around, because there are more cooks in Congress than usual, and that’s saying a lot. Either way, I wouldn’t change my investments because of it.”

To Kostin and his Goldman staff, the risk that Congress fails to boost the debt limit by the deadline is “higher than at any point since 2011,” but “the team believes it’s more likely that Congress will raise the debt limit before the Treasury is forced to delay scheduled payments.”

If the debt ceiling is not raised in time to make those payments, in Goldman’s estimate, the economy would shrink by about $225 billion per month, or 10% of annualized gross domestic product. That’s provided that the Treasury does what policy wonks call, “prioritize,” meaning somehow continuing to pay interest on the national debt, but to stop payment on other obligations.

For Thomas Swaney, CIO for global fixed income at Northern Trust Asset Management, another credit downgrade for the government is possible.

“The practical implications of a credit downgrade are not entirely clear,” he writes in a report. “But we don’t expect a modest downgrade to result in market disruptions for Treasuries, U.S. agency debt or overnight repurchase agreements.”

Author(s): Larry Light

Publication Date: 6 Feb 2023

Publication Site: ai-CIO

Does the GOP Want a Government Default So It Can Kill Social Security?

Mary Pat Campbell

Link: https://jacobin.com/2023/01/republicans-debt-ceiling-shock-doctrine-spending-cuts

Excerpt:

The debt ceiling is normally a dull topic, and many have understandably neglected to follow along. To recap, the debt ceiling is the artificial cap Congress places on the amount of money the government can borrow. As Secretary of the Treasury Janet Yellen and others have pointed out, there is little practical reason for the debt ceiling to exist at all. From a technical point of view, it is a formality to authorize the Treasury to pay bills the government has already incurred. Through creative accounting, the Treasury can keep paying for a few more months, and then it will have to stop unless Congress votes to raise the debt ceiling.

All sides agree that the US government deliberately defaulting on debts would be the financial equivalent of an atom bomb, causing immediate painful shocks across the world economy and unpredictable long-term effects. In order to avoid this scenario, voting to raise the debt ceiling is usually a matter of course — though the number of near and actual government shutdowns from Congress playing chicken with the ceiling have increased in recent decades.

But it might be different this time. As Politico reported last week, a number of former government officials who negotiated during previous standoffs over the debt ceiling think there’s much less room for a negotiated settlement this year.

The main reason is that, at least on the surface, House Speaker Kevin McCarthy is in a weak position, effectively held hostage by conditions that were imposed on him by the most extreme members of the House Republican conference during his election to speaker. Those conditions specifically require significant spending cuts in exchange for raising the debt ceiling.

….

Democrats also argue that though Republicans insist on reducing spending, they have refused to make specific demands for what they want cut. Here is where The Shock Doctrine might provide a hint of what’s to come. The idea of privatizing Social Security has been “lying around” since George W. Bush’s presidency. Joe Biden himself has a long, well-documented history of trying to cut Social Security and Medicare, though in public statements since 2020 he has consistently said he would not agree to do so.

Kevin McCarthy and other Republicans have repeatedly floated the idea of cutting the popular programs over the past year. While McCarthy appeared to abruptly back off the idea of cutting Social Security and Medicare as part of the debt ceiling negotiations on Sunday, his ambiguous promise to “strengthen” the programs without specifying what that means leaves plenty of room for privatization.

Author(s): Ben Beckett

Publication Date: 31 Jan 2023

Publication Site: Jacobin

BIDEN PROMISES NEARLY $36 BILLION FOR NATIONAL PENSION BAILOUTS

Mary Pat Campbell

Link: https://www.illinoispolicy.org/biden-promises-nearly-36-billion-for-national-pension-bailouts/

Excerpt:

The Biden administration promised nearly $36 billion to stabilize pension plans for Teamsters nationwide after forecasts predicted the system’s default by 2026. Union members would have seen their retirement benefits slashed by 60% if the system defaulted.

President Joe Biden announced Dec. 8 the federal government will use nearly $36 billion to stabilize failing Teamsters union pension plans nationwide, preventing severe benefits cuts for more than 350,000 union workers.

….

Illinois is home to more than 20 Teamster’s chapters and the nation’s worst pension debt, estimated at nearly $140 billion by state authorities in 2022. Private investor services projected that debt as high as $313 billion, using more realistic assumptions on returns.

In September these state pension funds had just 47 cents for every dollar in promised pension benefits.

Springfield lawmakers cannot routinely rely on federal authorities to bail out overly generous and underfunded state and local pensions. Illinois public servants deserve to receive the retirements they’ve been promised in full – not the 40% that would remain after default.

Author(s): Patrick Andriesen

Publication Date: 12 Dec 2022

Publication Site: Illinois Policy Institute

What the 1970s Can Teach Us About Today’s Inflationary Politics

Mary Pat Campbell

Link: https://reason.com/2022/10/13/inflation-remixed/

Graphic:

Excerpt:

American politicians had tried to control inflation before. The presidents and power brokers of the 1970s had tried price controls, public campaigns, pressure programs, blame games, and attempts to redefine basic economic terminology. The parties differed on the specifics, but both seemed to agree that the voting public and the private sector were to blame, not the bureaucrats and politicians in charge.

Inflation, in short, was a political problem, in the sense that it caused problems for politicians. But it wasn’t one America’s politicians knew how to solve.

On the contrary, America’s political class had spent the ’70s failing to fix inflation, or actively making it worse, often with policies designed to address other political and economic problems. That decade’s price hikes were prolonged and exacerbated by political decisions born of short-term thinking, outright cowardice, and technocratic hubris about policy makers’ ability to enact sweeping changes and manage the macroeconomy.

Author(s): Peter Suderman

Publication Date: November 2022

Publication Site: Reason

Why Aren’t More People Claiming Government Benefits?

Mary Pat Campbell

Link: https://knowledge.wharton.upenn.edu/article/why-arent-more-people-claiming-government-benefits/

Excerpt:

When the Biden administration expanded the Child Tax Credit in 2021 with direct cash payments of up to $3,600 to alleviate child poverty, millions of the most vulnerable families never received the automatic payments because they didn’t have a digital connection with the Internal Revenue Service through a previous income tax filing online. The burden was on those families to seek out the public benefit.

To boost awareness, the government launched a messaging campaign to let families know that up to $3,600 a year was waiting for them. But months later, millions of dollars were still unclaimed.

A new study led by Wharton marketing professor Wendy De La Rosa pinpoints the reason why so many Americans left money on the table: The large amount seemed like an abstraction because people don’t think about money on a yearly basis. Through a series of experiments, the researchers found that people were more likely to collect the money if it was conveyed as a monthly or weekly amount — $300 or $69 — similar to how they budget.

Author(s): Angie Basiouny

Publication Date: 11 Oct 2022

Publication Site: Knowledge @ Wharton

PBGC Finalizes Rescue of Ailing Multiemployer Pension Plans

Mary Pat Campbell

Link: https://www.ai-cio.com/news/pbgc-finalizes-rescue-of-ailing-multiemployer-pension-plans/

Excerpt:

The Pension Benefit Guaranty Corporation, under the direction of the Biden administration, has published the final rule implementing the American Rescue Plan Act of 2021’s Special Financial Assistance program.

According to supporters of the program, the Special Financial Assistance program, which is already operating on an interim basis, will protect millions of workers in stressed multiemployer union pension plans who previously faced the possibility of significant cuts to their benefits.

….

Initially, the interim final rule applied a single rate of return included in the statute that is higher than could be expected for SFA funds given that they were required to be invested exclusively in safe, but low-return, investment-grade fixed-income products. The final rule uses two different rates of return for SFA and non-SFA assets, so that the interest rate for SFA assets is more realistic given the investment limitations on these funds.

Another change in the final rule allows up to 33% of SFA to be invested in return-seeking assets that are projected to allow plans to receive a higher rate of return on their investments than under the interim final rule, subject to certain protections. Namely, this portion of plans’ SFA funds generally must be invested in publicly traded assets on liquid markets to ensure responsible stewardship of federal funds. These return-seeking investments include equities, equity funds and bonds. The other 67% of SFA funds must be invested in investment-grade fixed-income products.

The third major change is meant to ensure plans can confidently restore both past and future benefits and enter 2051 with rising assets. PBGC designed the final rule to ensure that no “MPRA plan”—a group of fewer than 20 multiemployer plans that remained solvent by cutting benefits pursuant to the Multiemployer Pension Reform Act of 2014—was forced to choose between restoring its benefit payments to previous levels and remaining indefinitely solvent. Instead, the final rule ensures that all MPRA plans avoid this dilemma, supporting them with enough assistance so that these plans can both restore benefits and be projected to remain indefinitely solvent going into 2051.

According to PBGC leadership, these changes collectively ensure that all plans that receive SFA are projected to be solvent and pay full benefits through at least 2051.

Author(s): John Manganaro

Publication Date: 7 July 2022

Publication Site: ai-CIO

Hospitals Are Flouting — And Fighting — Price Transparency Rules

Mary Pat Campbell

Link: https://www.levernews.com/hospitals-are-flouting-and-fighting-price-transparency-rules/

Excerpt:

The vast majority of U.S. hospitals are ignoring a new bipartisan federal law that requires the facilities to make their service prices available to the public, new research shows, and the Biden administration is facing growing criticism for not doing enough to enforce compliance with the landmark rule.

Now one state, Colorado, has taken matters into its own hands, passing an innovative law to bring its hospitals into compliance with the federal price transparency requirements — despite health care lobbyists’ efforts to sink the legislative effort.

….

Against the backdrop of limited federal enforcement, Colorado is leading the charge on creatively bringing hospitals into compliance, thanks to a new state law: House Bill 1285.

The law, recently signed by Gov. Jared Polis (D) and effective starting this August, has dual goals of accelerating the timeline on which hospital systems must meet the federal mandate, and curbing the crippling medical debt that plagues more than 100 million Americans.

The measure adds a state-level enforcement mechanism by requiring that hospitals be in compliance with the federal pricing transparency act in order to send Coloradans to collections for medical bills.

David Silverstein, founder and chairman of patient advocacy organization Broken Healthcare, wrote the bill and spearheaded the effort to get it across the finish line.

Author(s): Aditi Ramaswami

Publication Date: 27 Jun 2022

Publication Site: The Lever

Will Democrats Try Cutting Social Security and Medicare After a Disastrous Midterms?

Mary Pat Campbell

Link: https://jacobin.com/2022/06/austerity-entitlement-reform-social-security-democrats-gop

Excerpt:

Days after Obama lamented Democrats’ 2010 electoral “shellacking,” his commission released a plan to slash Social Security benefits and raise the program’s eligibility age. Economist Paul Krugman noted at the time that the commission also suggested using newly gained revenue to finance “sharp reductions in both the top marginal tax rate and in the corporate tax rate.”

The plan ultimately did not receive the fourteen commission votes it needed to move forward, and a few years later in 2012, the House voted down a version of the proposal. That didn’t stop the Obama-Biden administration’s push: right after winning reelection — and after cementing much of the George W. Bush tax cuts — they tried to limit cost-of-living increases for Social Security, to the applause of Republican lawmakers.

…..

Like Obama, Biden campaigned on a promise to protect Medicare and Social Security. But as we have reported, Biden is already affirming big Medicare premium increases and accelerating the privatization of that health care program. Biden also has not pushed to fulfill his promise to expand Social Security, even though there is new Democratic legislation that would do so.

And now with Graham’s comments, Republicans are banking on him becoming the old Joe Biden on Social Security if they win in November.

It’s not an insane political bet. After all, Biden for decades proposed cuts and freezes to Social Security and publicly boasted about it. Indeed, Biden spent most of his career depicting himself as an allegedly rare and courageous Democrat who was willing to push off his party’s base and tout austerity.

Author(s): David Sirota

Publication Date: 16 Jun 2022

Publication Site: Jacobin

In a Rare White House Meeting, Biden Meets Powell to Discuss Inflation

Mary Pat Campbell

Link: https://mishtalk.com/economics/in-a-rare-white-house-meeting-biden-meets-powell-to-discuss-inflation-guilty-meets-guilty

Graphic:

Excerpt:

PCE stands for Personal Consumption Expenditures. Those numbers come from the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA)

CPI stands for Consumer Price Index. Those numbers come from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS)

The key difference is the PCE includes prices paid on behalf of consumers (e.g. Medicare and Medicaid), whereas the CPI only contains prices directly paid by consumers.

The PCE tends to overweight medical expenses while the CPI tends to overweight rent.

The Fed’s preferred measure of inflation is PCE.

CPI and PCE Both Seriously Flawed

Neither measure directly incorporates home prices. Economists explain this away by stating homes are a capital expense. 

OK, so what? The fact is, rising home prices (asset prices in general), are a direct reflection of inflation.

By ignoring asset prices, the Fed helped blow the biggest economic bubble yet. Now the Fed struggles to contain the serious inflation it helped create.


Author(s): Mike Shedlock

Publication Date: 30 May 2022

Publication Site: Mish Talk

What We’ve Learned — and Failed to Learn — from a Million COVID Deaths

Mary Pat Campbell

Link: https://www.governing.com/now/what-weve-learned-and-failed-to-learn-from-a-million-covid-deaths

Excerpt:

The pandemic is not done. The number of new infections — surely an undercount due to unreported home tests — again tops 75,000 per day. The number of hospitalizations has climbed 20 percent over the past two weeks. The Biden administration has warned there could be 100 million more Americans infected by early next year. Yet Congress seems unwilling to provide more money for basic responses such as tests and vaccines, even as it becomes increasingly clear that even mild cases can lead to dangerous long-term damage.

Yet there are positive developments to consider as well. Vaccinations and certainly boosters are not where they should be, but three out of four Americans have received at least a single dose and two-thirds are fully vaccinated. The Commonwealth Fund has estimated that, absent vaccines, an additional 2.3 million Americans would have died, and 17 million more would have been hospitalized. Public health measures such as masking have largely fallen out of favor, but they helped prevent a death toll that could have been even more terrible.

“A million is way too many people, but as a result of the work that has been done, through public health and vaccination, it’s a number that’s a lot lower than it might have been,” says David Fleming, a distinguished visiting fellow at the Trust for America’s Health. “If we did not do those things, we would not be looking at the 1 million death threshold, we’d be looking at the 3 million death threshold.”

Author(s): Alan Greenblatt

Publication Date: 12 May 2022

Publication Site: Governing

President Biden changing his mind on student loan forgiveness ‘is a tremendous victory,’ Rep. Pressley says

Mary Pat Campbell

Link: https://finance.yahoo.com/news/student-loan-forgiveness-biden-pressley-141234731.html

Graphic:

Excerpt:

Pressley, alongside Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY), and Senator Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) have repeatedly called on Biden to cancel $50,000 in student loan debt immediately via executive order on the premise that there is sufficient legal backing for the administration to do so.

….

Cancelling $10,000 in student loan debt per borrower would help the most number of borrowers at the lowest cost, recent research from the New York Fed found.

The Fed researchers, using data from the New York Fed/Equifax Consumer Credit Panel, estimated the cost of two federal loan forgiveness proposals, one for $10,000 and another for $50,000. They found that limited forgiveness and placing income caps on who would be eligible would “distribute a larger share of benefits” to low-income borrowers while also reducing the cost of forgiveness.

Rep. Pressley has repeatedly stressed that women and people of color hold significant levels of student loan debt and that cancellation would represent a massively impactful form of relief given the disproportionate burden.

Author(s): Aarthi Swaminathan

Publication Date: 30 Apr 2022

Publication Site: Yahoo Finance

Republicans are winning in state government because their tax policies are winning

Mary Pat Campbell

Link: https://www.dallasnews.com/opinion/commentary/2022/03/06/republicans-are-winning-in-state-government-because-their-tax-policies-are-winning/

Excerpt:

Tax cuts remain a powerful tool to entice people and firms, and the pandemic has triggered a new tax war. After the lockdowns, states and cities predicted unprecedented revenue drops. Instead, economies bounced back quickly from the pandemic, partly because of widespread adoption of remote work and extensive federal aid from the Trump and Biden administrations — hundreds of billions of dollars in unemployment benefits (which kept individuals spending money), business loans and funding for local governments to fight COVID-19.

The March 2021 Biden stimulus then provided local governments with an unprecedented $350 billion to bolster their budgets. The revenue gusher has produced state budget surpluses where experts had only recently predicted steep deficits.

Nearly a dozen states, mostly Republican-governed, have used the windfall to cut taxes. Idaho reduced its corporate and individual tax rates and shrank its income-tax brackets from seven to five, producing a $163 million tax cut for residents and businesses. The state also sent $220 million in rebates to everyone who filed tax returns in 2019.

….

Advocates for higher taxes often say that the levies don’t drive away wealthy individuals or businesses. When New Jersey raised taxes on the wealthy in November 2020, Democratic Gov. Phil Murphy said, “When people say folks are going to leave, there’s no research anywhere that suggests that happens.”

Yet New Jersey, with taxes on the wealthy and on businesses long ranking among the nation’s highest, ranked a dismal 42nd in economic growth over the five years preceding the pandemic, according to one study, and it has been an economic laggard for two decades. Voters in this overwhelmingly Democratic state showed their disapproval in giving incumbent Murphy an extremely narrow victory in his November reelection bid. Polls showed that most voters favored the Republican position on cutting taxes over Murphy’s.

Author(s): Steven Malanga

Publication Date: 7 Mar 2022

Publication Site: Dallas Morning News