inflation – Page 3 – Actuarial News

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Inflation continues to rise in the United States. Although gas prices have recently fallen since their record high over the summer, the cost of groceries rose by 11.4 percent over the last year, and there is no expectation that they will fall back to reasonable levels. Prices overall have risen by 8.2 percent, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics’ Consumer Price Index report covering September 2022 as compared to the same month last year. While most working Americans are not getting hefty wage raises to compensate for inflation, seniors will see their Social Security benefits—which are pegged to inflation—rise next year. Starting in January 2023, beneficiaries will see an 8.7 percent cost-of-living adjustment (COLA) bump in their Social Security checks.
Conservatives are scoffing at this automated increase, as if it were a special treat that the Biden administration has cooked up to bribe older voters. Fox News reported that there was a “social media backlash” against White House Chief of Staff Ron Klain’s tweet lauding the upcoming increased COLA benefits for seniors. The outlet elevated comments by the conservative America First Policy Institute’s Marc Lotter, who retorted to Klain, “Nice try Ron. Raising benefits next year does not help seniors with the higher prices they are paying today or the higher prices they’ve been paying since you took office.”
But Social Security benefits have risen automatically with inflation since 1975 by design, precisely so that the livelihoods of seniors are not beholden to partisanship. This is an imminently sensible way to ensure that retired Americans, who spent their working lives paying Social Security taxes, can have a basic income.
If conservatives are complaining that an 8.7 percent bump is not enough to counter inflation, one might expect them to demand an even greater increase to Social Security benefits.

Author(s): Sonali Kolhatkar

Publication Date: 15 Oct 2022

Publication Site: naked capitalism

Bank of England Bought Only Small Amounts of Bonds even Today, Warns Pension Funds They Have “Only Three Days Left” to Unwind Derivatives with BOE Support

October 19, 2022October 19, 2022 Mary Pat Campbell

Link: https://wolfstreet.com/2022/10/11/bank-of-england-bought-only-small-amounts-of-bonds-even-today-warns-pension-funds-they-have-only-three-days-left-to-unwind-derivatives-with-boe-support/

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The relatively puny amounts of actual purchases show that the BOE is trying to calm the waters around the gilts market enough to give the pension funds some time to unwind in a more or less orderly manner whatever portion of the £1 trillion in “liability driven investment” (LDI) funds they cannot maintain.
The small scale of the intervention also shows that the BOE is not too upset with the gilts yields that rose sharply in the run-up to the crisis, triggering the pension crisis, and have roughly remained at those levels. The 10-year gilt yield today at 4.44% was roughly unchanged from yesterday and just below the September 27 spike peak.
And it makes sense to have these kinds of yields in the UK, and it would make sense for these yields to be much higher, given that inflation has spiked to 10%, and yields have not kept up with it, nor have they caught up with it. And to fight this raging inflation, the BOE will need to maneuver those yields far higher still:
So today, BOE Governor Andrew Bailey, speaking at the Institute of International Finance annual meeting in Washington D.C., warned these pension fund managers that the BOE will only provide this level of support, however little it may be, through the end of the week, to smoothen the gilt market and give the pension funds a chance to unwind in a more or less orderly manner the portions of their LDI funds that they cannot maintain.

Author(s): Wolf Richter

Publication Date: 11 Oct 2022

Publication Site: Wolf Street

What the 1970s Can Teach Us About Today’s Inflationary Politics

October 18, 2022October 18, 2022 Mary Pat Campbell

Link: https://reason.com/2022/10/13/inflation-remixed/

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American politicians had tried to control inflation before. The presidents and power brokers of the 1970s had tried price controls, public campaigns, pressure programs, blame games, and attempts to redefine basic economic terminology. The parties differed on the specifics, but both seemed to agree that the voting public and the private sector were to blame, not the bureaucrats and politicians in charge.
Inflation, in short, was a political problem, in the sense that it caused problems for politicians. But it wasn’t one America’s politicians knew how to solve.
On the contrary, America’s political class had spent the ’70s failing to fix inflation, or actively making it worse, often with policies designed to address other political and economic problems. That decade’s price hikes were prolonged and exacerbated by political decisions born of short-term thinking, outright cowardice, and technocratic hubris about policy makers’ ability to enact sweeping changes and manage the macroeconomy.

Author(s): Peter Suderman

Publication Date: November 2022

Publication Site: Reason

The History of the Social Security COLA: A Timeline

October 18, 2022October 18, 2022 Mary Pat Campbell

Link: https://www.thinkadvisor.com/2022/10/11/the-history-of-the-social-security-cola-a-timeline/

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The first Social Security COLA — an 8% benefit increase — happened in 1975. The COLAs were effective in June of the applicable year. Since 1982, adjustments have taken effect in December, with benefit increases reflected in January payments.
Over the years, adjustments have ranged from no adjustment — in both 2009 and 2010 — to a high of 14.3% in 1980. The COLA was 5.9% in 2022.
The 2023 COLA will be 8.7%, the biggest increase since 1981. Here are some thoughts on a few notable past COLAs. Tap or hover your mouse over the graph to see the COLAs for each year.

Author(s): Roger Wohlner

Publication Date: 11 Oct 2022

Publication Site: Think Advisor

Interest Rate Hikes vs. Inflation Rate, by Country

October 14, 2022October 14, 2022 Mary Pat Campbell

Link: https://www.visualcapitalist.com/interest-rate-hikes-vs-inflation-rate-by-country/

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To understand how interest rates influence inflation, we need to understand how inflation works. Inflation is the result of too much money chasing too few goods. Over the last several months, this has occurred amid a surge in demand and supply chain disruptions worsened by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
In an effort to combat inflation, central banks will raise their policy rate. This is the rate they charge commercial banks for loans or pay commercial banks for deposits. Commercial banks pass on a portion of these higher rates to their customers, which reduces the purchasing power of businesses and consumers. For example, it becomes more expensive to borrow money for a house or car.
Ultimately, interest rate hikes act to slow spending and encourage saving. This motivates companies to increase prices at a slower rate, or lower prices, to stimulate demand.

Author(s): Jenna Ross, Nick Routley

Publication Date: 24 June 2022

Publication Site: Visual Capitalist

Ensuring Tax Rates Don’t Rise with Inflation

October 5, 2022October 5, 2022 Mary Pat Campbell

Link: https://taxfoundation.org/inflation-tax-legacy/

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With record inflation now squeezing American household budgets, you can thank our Senior Fellow Emeritus Steve Entin for shielding U.S. workers from being pushed into higher tax brackets. If ever there was a paycheck protection program, defending people from bracket creep may be the most important one ever designed.
It all started some 40 years ago. After Ronald Reagan was elected President, Steve Entin, who had previously served as a staff economist on the Joint Economic Committee and studied under notable professors like Milton Friedman at the University of Chicago, was invited to work at the Department of the Treasury as Deputy Assistant Secretary for Economic Policy.
As many at the Tax Foundation can attest, Steve’s stories about his time in the Reagan administration are legendary, but one stands out. Steve did something that every household in America should be grateful for—he convinced President Reagan to call for indexing the tax code to inflation.
At the time, American taxpayers were subject to bracket creep, which occurs when inflation pushes taxpayers into higher income tax brackets or reduces the value of credits, deductions, and exemptions. The bracket thresholds failed to keep pace with inflation, resulting in an increase in income taxes without an increase in real income.
Indeed, President Reagan used the chart that Steve drew for him during a televised address asking Americans to call their members of Congress and demand they index the tax code. People did. And it worked.

Author(s): Scott A. Hodge

Publication Date: 12 Sept 2022

Publication Site: Tax Foundation

Wharton professor Jeremy Siegel says Jerome Powell is making one of the biggest policy mistakes in the Fed’s 110-year history, and it could lead to a major recession

September 27, 2022September 27, 2022 Mary Pat Campbell

Link: https://finance.yahoo.com/news/wharton-professor-jeremy-siegel-says-191800487.html

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The Wharton professor Jeremy Siegel has a big issue with the Federal Reserve’s aggressive interest-rate hikes in its bid to tame inflation, and he’s worried that the central bank is making the biggest mistake in its history and may provoke a steep recession.
Siegel said inflation is starting to come down significantly, but the Fed is still moving forward with its rate hikes.
He said it could be “one of the biggest policy mistakes in the 110-year history of the Fed, by staying so easy when everything was booming.”
…..
“I think the Fed is just way too tight. They’re making exactly the same mistake on the other side that they made a year ago,” Siegel added.
To Siegel’s point, the Fed has had a lousy record of accurately forecasting where it expects interest rates to be just a few months into the future.
….
“I am very upset. It’s like a pendulum. They were way too easy through 2020 and 2021, and now ‘we’re going to be real tough guys until we crush the economy,'” Siegel said of the Fed.
Siegel expects the Fed to “eventually see the light” as none of their recent predictions are likely to come true.
“I think they’re going to be forced to lower the rates much more rapidly than they think,” Siegel said, a move that could set up stocks for a potential recovery from their ongoing decline.

Author(s): Matthew Fox

Publication Date: 25 Sept 2022

Publication Site: Yahoo Finance

Dot Plot Show Fed Anticipates More Hikes in 2023 to 4.50 Percent

September 22, 2022September 22, 2022 Mary Pat Campbell

Link: https://mishtalk.com/economics/dot-plot-show-fed-anticipates-more-hikes-in-2023-to-4-50-percent

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Hikes Come Hell or High Water?

The Fed participants have a median expectation of 4.25 to 4.50 percent for the end of 2022
That’s another 1.25 percentage points more this year.
The Fed then anticipates one more hike in 2023 to 4.50 to 4.75 percent.

I have to admit that a year ago I did not foresee this. But here we are.

The key question is not where we’ve been but where we are headed. I Highly doubt the Fed hikes another 1.25 percentage points this year or gets anywhere close to 4.50 to 4.75 percent in 2023.

Author(s): Mike Shedlock

Publication Date: 21 Sept 2022

Publication Site: Mish Talk

The biggest Fed rate hike in 40 years? It could be coming next week.

September 14, 2022September 14, 2022 Mary Pat Campbell

Link: https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-biggest-fed-rate-hike-in-40-years-it-might-be-coming-11663097227

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After another dismal U.S. inflation report, economists at the brokerage Nomura Securities on Tuesday became the first on Wall Street DJIA, 0.12% to predict a full-percentage-point increase in the Fed’s benchmark short-term rate.
“We continue to believe markets underappreciate just how entrenched U.S. inflation has become and the magnitude of response that will likely be required from the Fed to dislodge it,” the economists at Nomura wrote in a report to clients.
The last time the Fed made such a drastic move was in the early 1980s — another period marked by sky-high inflation.
At each of the last two meetings, the monetary-policy-setting Federal Open Market Committee raised the targeted rate by 0.75 point.

Author(s): Jeffry Bartash

Publication Date: 13 Sept 2022

Publication Site: MarketWatch

Fed Rate Hike Odds Jump to Full Point After the Hot CPI Report

July 14, 2022July 14, 2022 Mary Pat Campbell

Link: https://mishtalk.com/economics/fed-rate-hike-odds-jump-to-full-point-after-the-hot-cpi-report

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Yesterday, the market penciled in a three-quarter point hike. Today, the market expectation is for a full point hike.
The WSJ notes that would be the largest hike since the Fed started directly using overnight interest rates to conduct monetary policy in the early 1990s.

Author(s): Mike Shedlock

Publication Date: 13 July 2022

Publication Site: Mish Talk

Inflation Hits 9.1 Percent, Highest Level in 41 Years

July 14, 2022July 14, 2022 Mary Pat Campbell

Link: https://reason.com/2022/07/13/inflation-hits-9-1-percent-highest-level-in-41-years/?utm_medium=email

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Prices were 9.1 percent higher in June than a year before, exceeding expectations and surging to a 41-year high.
Department of Labor data released Wednesday morning showed that inflation picked up speed in June, rather than slowing. Prices rose by 1.3 percent during the month, up from a 1 percent increase in May. A sharp rise in energy prices, and gasoline prices particularly, helped power the annualized inflation rate to its highest levels in more than four decades. Food prices rose by 1 percent during June, and are up 10.4 percent over the past year.

Author(s): Eric Boehm

Publication Date: 13 July 2022

Publication Site: Reason