Trends in Mandatory Spending

Link:https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/R/R44641

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In FY2023, mandatory spending accounts for an estimated 63% of total federal spending. Social Security alone accounts for about 21% of federal spending. Medicare and the federal share of Medicaid together account for another 25% of federal spending. Therefore, spending on Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid now makes up almost half of total federal spending.

These figures do not reflect the implicit cost of tax expenditures, which are revenue losses attributable to provisions of the federal tax laws that allow a special exclusion, exemption, or deduction from gross income or provide a special credit, a preferential tax rate, or a deferral of tax liability.8 As with mandatory spending, tax policy is not controlled by annual appropriations acts, but by other types of legislation.

Author(s): Congressional Research Service

Publication Date: last updated 7 Nov 2023

Publication Site: U.S. Congress

High Inflation Creates Tax Winners and Losers. What Are You?

Link:https://www.wsj.com/articles/high-inflation-creates-tax-winners-and-losers-what-are-you-11634981401

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As inflation trends near a 13-year high, middle-income workers will benefit from automatic annual adjustments to tax provisions such as the standard deduction for income taxes. Some other provisions are frozen in time, stuck to specific dollar amounts from decades ago. Those provisions tend to pinch higher-income households.

For example, the standard deduction for married couples is likely to rise to $25,900 from $25,100, according to Wolters Kluwer NV, which provides tax services to accountants and others. As nominal wages and prices rise, that adjustment will shield more money from taxation and block inflation — currently above 5% on an unadjusted annual rate — from causing a sharp tax increase.

Some home sellers, however, will be squeezed because married couples can exclude up to $500,000 in gains from capital-gains taxes. That figure hasn’t changed since a 1997 law, while the median home sale price has more than doubled since then.

Author(s):Richard Rubin

Publication Date:23 Oct 2021

Publication Site:WSJ

House Panel Votes to Rein in Large Retirement Account Balances

Link: https://www.asppa.org/news/browse-topics/house-panel-votes-rein-large-retirement-account-balances

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Mega-Roth, backdoor IRAs and large retirement account balances would be limited under legislation approved Sept. 15 by the House Ways and Means Committee.

In a near party-line vote of 24-19, the changes were approved as part of the $3.5 trillion Build Back Better Act reconciliation recommendations that address everything from implementing infrastructure development and green energy incentives, to expanding Medicare, offering paid family and medical leave, and extending Trade Adjustment Assistance. 

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These revenue-raising retirement proposals are included in Subtitle I, “Responsibly Funding Our Priorities,” along with a host of other individual and corporate tax increases. The Joint Committee on Taxation estimates that these tax changes would raise approximately $2.1 trillion over 10 years to help pay for the fiscal year 2022 budget reconciliation bill. (For a more detailed description of the retirement-based revenue proposals, click here.)

Author(s): Ted Godbout

Publication Date: 16 Sept 2021

Publication Site: American Society of Pension Professionals & Actuaries

ProPublica’s Plan for a Poorer America

Link: https://www.wsj.com/articles/propublicas-plan-for-a-poorer-america-11623881781?st=0g4wamiq5m5ces3&reflink=desktopwebshare_twitter

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ProPublica substitutes a magazine’s estimate of wealth appreciation, which never appears on the stolen tax returns, to falsify income. Using this deception the site calculates its “true tax rate.” ProPublica laments that taxpayers are acting “perfectly legally” in not paying a federal wealth tax, which doesn’t exist.

That wealth is taxed only when converted into income or on death may be an outrage to those in government who want to spend that wealth, but it is a purposeful, enlightened policy that lets wealth work as the nation’s seed corn, making America the richest nation in the history of the world. That wealth in turn makes it possible for the government today to provide $45,000 a year in transfer payments to the average household in the bottom 20% of American earners.

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Taxing wealth accumulation will mean less wealth accumulation, lower productivity growth, lower wages and a less prosperous America. If you had to pay a federal property tax on the appreciation of your home and the growth in the value of your retirement assets, farm and business every year, how could you or America ever get ahead? Private investment has created $32 trillion of equity wealth in America. “Public investment” has created $21 trillion of public debt.

Author(s): Phil Gramm, Mike Solon

Publication Date: 16 June 2021

Publication Site: Wall Street Journal

A G-7 Deal on a Global Minimum Tax for Companies Faces Hurdles

Link: https://www.wsj.com/articles/a-g-7-deal-on-a-global-minimum-tax-for-companies-faces-hurdles-11623016756

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An agreement by wealthy countries to impose minimum taxes on multinational companies faces a rocky path to implementation, with many governments likely to wait to see what others, especially a divided U.S. Congress, will do.

Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen hailed the deal, reached by finance ministers of the Group of Seven leading rich nations over the weekend in London, calling it a return to multilateralism and a sign countries can tighten the tax net on profitable firms to fund their governments.

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In countries with parliamentary systems, governments can quickly deliver on pledges, turning them into local laws and regulations. In the U.S., however, a slim Democratic majority in the House, an evenly split Senate, antitax Republicans and procedural hurdles complicate passage.

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Buy-in will also have to come from a broader group of 135 countries in what is known as the Inclusive Framework. Some countries with very low tax rates — such as Ireland, with a 12.5% charge on profit — are reluctant to sign up. The U.S. has proposed tax changes that would penalize companies from countries that don’t impose the minimum taxes.

Author(s): Richard Rubin, Paul Hannon, Sam Schechner

Publication Date: 6 June 2021

Publication Site: Wall Street Journal

Cut Spending For The Rich Before Raising Their Taxes

Link: https://www.manhattan-institute.org/cut-spending-rich-raising-their-taxes

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Members of Congress have increasingly demanded large tax hikes on upper-income families to finance large spending increases on top of soaring baseline deficits. But even the most aggressive tax hikes on the rich would make only a small dent in the long-term budget deficits, and they would significantly harm the economy. Before considering any new taxes, lawmakers should first reduce federal spending benefits for high-income families. This bipartisan strategy would achieve both the redistributive goals of the left and the spending restraint goals of the right.

Such upper-income spending cuts have several advantages over new taxes: 1) they will not harm economic growth, 2) they increase future policy flexibility, 3) they are better targeted, and 4) they promote political compromise.

Several programs target spending to wealthy Americans. This report focuses on three of the largest: Social Security, Medicare, and farm subsidies, where basic reforms could save upward of $1 trillion in the first decade, and substantially more in future decades.

Author(s): Brian Riedl

Publication Date: 20 May 2021

Publication Site: Manhattan Institute

Biden’s Tax On Large Capital Gains At Death Will Catch A Few With Annual Incomes Of Less than $400,000

Link: https://www.thewealthadvisor.com/article/bidens-tax-large-capital-gains-death-will-catch-few-annual-incomes-less-400000

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For a relatively small number of decedents, this plan could run headlong into Biden’s promise to not raise taxes on those with incomes below $400,000. Of course, the vast majority of decedents will have unrealized gains of far less than $1 million. Indeed, most will leave entire estates far below that threshold. Among people over 70, about 83 percent live in a household with total net worth of less than $1 million.

But some people with large unrealized gains will have been living on relatively low incomes. Imagine someone who is retired and living on Social Security, a modest pension, and some savings. But they still are holding that Microsoft stock they bought in 1987.  

Author(s): Howard Gleckman

Publication Date: 31 May 2021

Publication Site: The Wealth Advisor

Biden Said His Tax Hikes Would Only Affect the Rich. He Can’t Keep That Promise.

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It’s time for the Democrats who elect presidents that promise not to jack up taxes on anybody but the rich to come to terms with something: These politicians can’t continue to spend that much money without raising taxes on nearly everyone, and that includes some regressive taxes. I don’t like it, since I’d prefer the size and scope of government to be significantly smaller—but this reality is not optional.

Here’s another reason why Biden was never going to be able to keep his promise: He already announced his intention to increase the corporate income tax from the current 21 percent to 28 percent. The reality here is that the corporations that he says are going to send bigger checks to the Internal Revenue Service (IRS) after the tax hike aren’t the ones who actually shoulder this heavier tax burden.

Author(s): Veronique de Rugy

Publication Date: 1 April 2021

Publication Site: Reason

Testimony: Senate Budget Committee Hearing on the Progressivity of the U.S. Tax Code

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In case you are thinking, “Well, the rich make more, they should pay more,” the top 1 percent of taxpayers account for 20 percent of all income (AGI). So, their 40 percent share of income taxes is twice their share of the nation’s income.  

Similarly, in 2018, the top 0.1 percent of taxpayers paid $311 billion in income taxes. That amounted to 20 percent of all income taxes paid, the highest level since 2001, as far back as the IRS data allows us to measure. The top 0.1 percent of taxpayers in 2018 paid a greater share of the income tax burden than the bottom 75 percent of taxpayers combined.

Author(s): Scott A. Hodge

Publication Date: 25 March 2021

Publication Site: Tax Foundation

After $1.9 Trillion Spending Hike, Biden Is Planning $3 Trillion in New Spending

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The numbers here are simply staggering. Consider the fact that in 2019, the last full budget year before the pandemic, the federal government spent a grand total of $4.4 trillion. Combined with the bill that already passed in March, this plan represents nearly $5 trillion in new spending.

Though the specifics of the proposal are in flux, it seems to bear some similarities to the $1.9 trillion American Rescue Plan (ARP) that Biden signed into law earlier this month. That bill was ostensibly a COVID-19 relief measure, but only a small percentage of the money was actually directed toward dealing with the pandemic. The upcoming $3 trillion package will be called an infrastructure bill, but the Times says only about $1 trillion would be directed toward such traditional infrastructure items as roads, bridges, ports, and improvements to the electric grid.

Author(s): Eric Boehm

Publication Date: 22 March 2021

Publication Site: Reason

Memo to Dems: Don’t Lift SALT Cap to Help the Rich, Help States Directly Instead

Link: https://www.realclearpolicy.com/articles/2021/03/01/memo_to_dems_dont_lift_salt_cap_to_help_the_rich_help_states_directly_instead_685729.html

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But at a national level, it is much less clear that the SALT deduction makes for good politics. Most of the key swing states, including Georgia, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, New Hampshire, and Arizona were below the national average in the value of the SALT deduction as a percent of adjusted gross income before the new cap. Florida and Nevada were in the bottom seven states.  

Of course, states and local governments do need help from the Federal government. In fact, more help is needed now more than ever. The pandemic is hurting state and local government revenues, to the tune of around $350 billion over the next three years. Now is the time to enact a better federal support system for states and localities, and to replace the SALT deduction, rather than revert to the previous system. 

The good news is that there are a number of good policy options available to legislators, many of which were outlined at a recent Brookings event on this subject, and any of which would be much fairer and more effective than lifting the SALT deduction cap. The key point is that Congress should help states directly, rather than through the long, roundabout route of a regressive tax break to individuals.  

Author(s): Richard V. Reeves, Christopher Pulliam

Publication Date: 1 March 2021

Publication Site: Real Clear Policy

Elizabeth Warren Still Wants a Wealth Tax. It Still Won’t Work.

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Warren is spending this week talking up her “Ultra-Millionaire Tax Act.” It’s essentially a refreshed version of the same idea she proposed during her failed bid for the Democratic presidential nomination. The current measure, like the old one, would tax the net worth of American households with more than $50 million in assets to the tune of 2 percent annually, with an additional 1 percent tax for households worth more than $1 billion. Warren favored the wealth tax in 2019 when the economy was generally doing pretty well. But now, she says, it’s needed “because of the changes in this country under the pandemic.”

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Yellen is right, by the way, that Warren’s plan would have “implementation problems.” That’s a polite way of saying it wouldn’t work. The wealthy tend to have difficult-to-value assets, and forcing the IRS to value them every year in order to assess the tax would, in the words of one tax expert, be an “administrative nightmare.” 

Author(s): Peter Suderman

Publication Date: 2 March 2021

Publication Site: Reason