Tag: fed funds rate

Dot Plot Show Fed Anticipates More Hikes in 2023 to 4.50 Percent

Mary Pat Campbell

Link: https://mishtalk.com/economics/dot-plot-show-fed-anticipates-more-hikes-in-2023-to-4-50-percent

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Hikes Come Hell or High Water? 

  • The Fed participants have a median expectation of 4.25 to 4.50 percent for the end of 2022
  • That’s another 1.25 percentage points more this year.
  • The Fed then anticipates one more hike in 2023 to 4.50 to 4.75 percent.

I have to admit that a year ago I did not foresee this. But here we are. 

The key question is not where we’ve been but where we are headed. I Highly doubt the Fed hikes another 1.25 percentage points this year or gets anywhere close to 4.50 to 4.75 percent in 2023.

Author(s): Mike Shedlock

Publication Date: 21 Sept 2022

Publication Site: Mish Talk

Major Divergences: ECB Says No Hikes in 2022, Fed Sees 3 Hikes, BOE Hiked Today

Mary Pat Campbell

Link:https://mishtalk.com/economics/major-divergences-ecb-says-no-hikes-in-2022-fed-sees-3-hikes-boe-hiked-today

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How many rate hikes are coming? The Fed thinks 6 by the end of 2023. I am unconvinced the Fed gets in any hikes in 2022 and certainly not 6 by the end of 2023.

These ridiculous predictions assume there will not be another recession in “the longer run”. 

Central banks like to pretend they will hike, but by the time comes, they have delayed so long they find an excuse to no do so. 

Possible excuses: A recession, stock market plunge, another pandemic, global warming, global cooling, or an asteroid crash. 

Central banks will find some excuse to delay hikes. But the most likely excuse is a recession or stock market crash. 

Author(s): Mike Shedlock

Publication Date: 16 Dec 2021

Publication Site: Mish Talk