Tag: excess mortality

Nationwide Surge In Deaths Among People Aged 18-49: A State by State Overview

Mary Pat Campbell

Link: https://www.theepochtimes.com/mkt_morningbrief/northeast-fares-best-amid-2021-prime-age-mortality-spike_4208797.html

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Deaths among people aged 18 to 49 increased more than 40 percent in the 12 months ending October 2021 compared to the same period in 2018–2019, before the COVID-19 pandemic, according to an analysis of death certificate data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) by The Epoch Times.

The agency doesn’t yet have full 2021 numbers, as death certificate data trickles in with a lag of one to eight weeks or more.

…..

It’s not clear why the mortality spike seemed to exhibit a geographical trend. Overall, a part of the surge could be likely blamed on drug overdoses, which increased to more than 101,000 in the 12 months ending June 2021 from about 72,000 in 2019, the CDC estimated. About two-thirds of those deaths involved synthetic opioids including fentanyl that are often smuggled to the United States from China through Mexico.

For those ages 50 to 84, mortality went up more than 27 percent, representing more than 470,000 excess deaths. Almost four out of five of the deaths had COVID marked on the death certificate as the cause or a contributing factor.

Author(s): Petr Savb

Publication Date: 13 Jan 2022

Publication Site: The Epoch Times

Mortality Nuggets: Videos on Death Numbers, Ranking Table for States’ Mortality for 2020

Mary Pat Campbell

Link:https://marypatcampbell.substack.com/p/mortality-nuggets-videos-on-death

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The ranking tables do reflect where COVID hit hard in 2020 — the spring 2020 wave in the northeast, and the summer 2020 wave along the south and southwest (Texas, in particular). No, Florida didn’t show its big COVID impact until January 2021, so it’s pretty far down on this ranking table.

This way, we can see if there are any geographic patterns. We did know the hot spots of NY, NJ, IL (mainly around Chicago), DC, TX, Louisiana (around New Orleans), Arizona. I had not been aware of Mississippi being so bad, but maybe that was spillover from New Orleans.

Author(s): Mary Pat Campbell

Publication Date: 15 Jan 2022

Publication Site: STUMP at substack

Top Causes of Death by Age Group, 2020: Raw Numbers

Mary Pat Campbell

Link: https://marypatcampbell.substack.com/p/top-causes-of-death-by-age-group

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The numbers below each cause are the total number of finalized deaths in CDC Wonder as of 11 January 2022 for the completed calendar year 2020.

COVID deaths for under age 15 weren’t in the top 10 causes for those age groups, which is why they aren’t seen in the table. But you may be interested in those numbers:
at #12 for ages 5-14, with 49 deaths
at #12 for ages 1-4, with 19 deaths
at #13 for infant mortality (<1 year), at 35 deaths

In general, other than the new cause of COVID, most of the causes of death were in the same rank order as in 2019, with a few switches for causes that tend to be close in numbers.

Author(s): Mary Pat Campbell

Publication Date: 12 Jan 2022

Publication Site: STUMP at substack

5 States Where Dying People Are Most Likely to Be Working Age

Mary Pat Campbell

Link: https://www.thinkadvisor.com/2021/12/21/5-states-where-dying-people-are-the-most-likely-to-be-working-age/

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Whatever the omicron variant of COVID-19 does to U.S. life insurance insurance claims, the delta variant and its siblings have been continuing to drive up the number of deaths of working-age Americans.

Some life and health insurers reported that an enormous surge of COVID-19 deaths appeared in September and then seemed to end quickly.

A look at weekly death count data from the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention shows that, from 2015 through 2019, about 12,900 people ages 25 through 64 died, from all causes, in a typical week.

In September, the number climbed more than 7,000, or more than 50%, over the median.

That total includes both people killed directly by COVID-19 and by the effects of the pandemic on the health care system, the economy and U.S. society as a whole.

Author(s): Allison Bell

Publication Date: 3 Jan 2022

Publication Site: Think Advisor

Indiana life insurance CEO says deaths are up 40% among people ages 18-64

Mary Pat Campbell

Link:https://www.thecentersquare.com/indiana/indiana-life-insurance-ceo-says-deaths-are-up-40-among-people-ages-18-64/article_71473b12-6b1e-11ec-8641-5b2c06725e2c.html

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The head of Indianapolis-based insurance company OneAmerica said the death rate is up a stunning 40% from pre-pandemic levels among working-age people.

“We are seeing, right now, the highest death rates we have seen in the history of this business – not just at OneAmerica,” the company’s CEO Scott Davison said during an online news conference this week. “The data is consistent across every player in that business.”

OneAmerica is a $100 billion insurance company that has had its headquarters in Indianapolis since 1877. The company has approximately 2,400 employees and sells life insurance, including group life insurance to employers in the state.

Davison said the increase in deaths represents “huge, huge numbers,” and that’s it’s not elderly people who are dying, but “primarily working-age people 18 to 64” who are the employees of companies that have group life insurance plans through OneAmerica.

“And what we saw just in third quarter, we’re seeing it continue into fourth quarter, is that death rates are up 40% over what they were pre-pandemic,” he said.

Author(s): Margaret Menge

Publication Date: 1 Jan 2022

Publication Site: The Center Square

As U.S. Nears 800,000 Virus Deaths, 1 of Every 100 Older Americans Has Perished

Mary Pat Campbell

Link: https://www.nytimes.com/2021/12/13/us/covid-deaths-elderly-americans.html

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As the coronavirus pandemic approaches the end of a second year, the United States stands on the cusp of surpassing 800,000 deaths from the virus, and no group has suffered more than older Americans. All along, older people have been known to be more vulnerable, but the scale of loss is only now coming into full view.

Seventy-five percent of people who have died of the virus in the United States — or about 600,000 of the nearly 800,000 who have perished so far — have been 65 or older. One in 100 older Americans has died from the virus. For people younger than 65, that ratio is closer to 1 in 1,400.

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After the first known coronavirus death in the United States in February 2020, the virus’s death toll in this country reached 100,000 people in only three months. The pace of deaths slowed throughout summer 2020, then quickened throughout the fall and winter, and then slowed again this spring and summer.

Throughout the summer, most people dying from the virus were concentrated in the South. But the most recent 100,000 deaths — beginning in early October — have spread out across the nation, in a broad belt across the middle of the country from Pennsylvania to Texas, the Mountain West and Michigan.

These most recent 100,000 deaths, too, have all occurred in less than 11 weeks, a sign that the pace of deaths is moving more quickly once again — faster than at any time other than last winter’s surge.

By now, Covid-19 has become the third leading cause of death among Americans 65 and older, after heart disease and cancer. It is responsible for about 13 percent of all deaths in that age group since the beginning of 2020, more than diabetes, accidents, Alzheimer’s disease or dementia.

Author(s): Julie Bosman, Amy Harmon and Albert Sun

Publication Date: 13 Dec 2021

Publication Site: New York Times

Covid Spurs Biggest Rise in Life-Insurance Payouts in a Century

Mary Pat Campbell

Link:https://www.wsj.com/articles/covid-spurs-biggest-rise-in-life-insurance-payouts-in-a-century-11639045802

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The Covid-19 pandemic last year drove the biggest increase in death benefits paid by U.S. life insurers since the 1918 influenza epidemic, an industry trade group said.

Death-benefit payments rose 15.4% in 2020 to $90.43 billion, mostly due to the pandemic, according to the American Council of Life Insurers. In 1918, payments surged 41%.

The hit to the insurance industry was less than expected early in the pandemic because many of the victims were older people who typically have smaller policies. The industry paid out $78.36 billion in 2019, and payouts have typically increased modestly each year.

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In the 1918 flu pandemic, the number of U.S. deaths reached about 675,000, with mortality high in people younger than 5 years old, 20 to 40 years old, and 65 years and older, according to the CDC’s website.

The ACLI’s data show two other years, both in the 1920s, when year-over-year increases topped 15%, when there also were influenza epidemics, said Andrew Melnyk, the ACLI’s vice president of research and chief economist.

Author(s): Leslie Scism

Publication Date: 9 Dec 2021

Publication Site: Wall Street Journal

Omicron Wave Sees South Africa’s Weekly Excess Deaths Almost Double

Mary Pat Campbell

Link:https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-12-08/s-african-weekly-excess-deaths-almost-double-amid-omicron-wave

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South African excess deaths, a measure of mortality above a historical average, almost doubled in the week ending Nov. 28 from the preceding seven-day period as a new coronavirus variant spread across the country.

During the period 2,076 more people died than would normally be expected, the South African Medical Research Council said in a report on Wednesday. That compares with 1,091 the week earlier.

The rise, while only reflecting a week of data, contrasts with hospitalization numbers that show that most admissions have mild forms of the coronavirus, spurring hope that the omicron variant is more benign than earlier strains.

Author(s):Antony Sguazzin

Publication Date: 8 Dec 2021

Publication Site: Bloomberg

COVID-19 Vaccination and Non–COVID-19 Mortality Risk — Seven Integrated Health Care Organizations, United States, December 14, 2020–July 31, 2021

Mary Pat Campbell

Link:https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/70/wr/mm7043e2.htm?s_cid=mm7043e2_w

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What is already known about this topic?

Although deaths after COVID-19 vaccination have been reported to the Vaccine Adverse Events Reporting System, few studies have been conducted to evaluate mortality not associated with COVID-19 among vaccinated and unvaccinated groups.

What is added by this report?

During December 2020–July 2021, COVID-19 vaccine recipients had lower rates of non–COVID-19 mortality than did unvaccinated persons after adjusting for age, sex, race and ethnicity, and study site.

What are the implications for public health practice?

There is no increased risk for mortality among COVID-19 vaccine recipients. This finding reinforces the safety profile of currently approved COVID-19 vaccines in the United States. All persons aged ≥12 years should receive a COVID-19 vaccine.

Author(s): Stanley Xu, PhD1; Runxin Huang, MS1; Lina S. Sy, MPH1; Sungching C. Glenn, MS1; Denison S. Ryan, MPH1; Kerresa Morrissette, MPH1; David K. Shay, MD2; Gabriela Vazquez-Benitez, PhD3; Jason M. Glanz, PhD4; Nicola P. Klein, MD, PhD5; David McClure, PhD6; Elizabeth G. Liles, MD7; Eric S. Weintraub, MPH8; Hung-Fu Tseng, MPH, PhD1; Lei Qian, PhD1

Publication Date: 29 October 2021

Publication Site: MMWR at CDC

Covid Mortality Update for November 2021: Before the Omicron Variant

Mary Pat Campbell

Link:https://marypatcampbell.substack.com/p/covid-mortality-update-for-november

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As noted earlier, the Hispanic excess mortality was about a level as the other non-White groups, but then spiked with Wave 2 and stayed very high.

The Asian group saw its excess mortality peak with Wave 3 — remember, that’s the large wave with the most COVID deaths. But they have been at about 30 – 35% excess mortality for the other waves.

The Black group looks like it’s slightly rising in excess mortality, but staying within a fairly narrow range of about 33% to 37% excess mortality.

The White group is definitely showing an increasing trend of excess mortality. Interesting.

Due to the White group’s increasing excess mortality, the overall population is showing an increasing trend — look, Whites have been the majority of deaths for a long time, as they’re the majority of old folks. That’s how that works.

Author(s): Mary Pat Campbell

Publication Date: 28 Nov 2021

Publication Site: STUMP at substack

Predictable country-level bias in the reporting of COVID-19 deaths

Mary Pat Campbell

Link:https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2667319321000124

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We examine whether a country’s management of the COVID-19 pandemic relate to the downward biasing of the number of reported deaths from COVID-19. Using deviations from historical averages of the total number of monthly deaths within a country, we find that the probability of underreporting of COVID-related deaths for countries with the most stringent policies was 58.6%, compared to a 28.2% for countries with the least stringent policies. Countries with the lowest ex ante healthcare capacity in terms of number of available beds underreport deaths by 52.5% on average, compared to 23.1% for countries with the greatest capacity.

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jge.2021.100012

Author(s): Botir Kobilov, Ethan Rouen, George Serafeim

Publication Date: Summer 2021

Publication Site: Journal of Government and Economics

Why COVID-19 Probably Killed More People Than We Realize

Mary Pat Campbell

Link:https://hbswk.hbs.edu/item/why-covid-19-probably-killed-more-people-than-we-realize

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As the number of casualties from COVID-19 ballooned at an alarming rate last year, some feared that government officials were failing to report several coronavirus-related losses and the actual death toll was much higher worldwide.

While the official count shows more than 5 million people have died of the disease, a new study of underreported casualties in several countries indicates that COVID has actually killed hundreds of thousands more people than government records document.

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The HBS researchers gathered the reported monthly numbers of deaths during the pandemic in each of the 51 countries from a variety of sources, including reports in the New York Times and the European Commission’s database, Eurostat. They compared that data to figures from the same months for the past three to five years to calculate excess deaths. Subtracting the number of official COVID deaths for each country helped them gauge potential underreporting.

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In fact, countries with more stringent policies in place did, on average, have 59 percent higher unexplained excess deaths—that is, 159 deaths for every 100 reported for COVID.

Author(s): Ethan Rouen, George Serafeim

Publication Date: 2 Nov 2021

Publication Site: Working Knowledge at Harvard Business School