Tag: Demographic Data Analysis

German death figures 2023 – almost back to normal, still a disturbing overall picture

Mary Pat Campbell

Link: https://ulflorr.substack.com/p/german-death-figures-2023-almost

Graphic:

Excerpt:

Destatis yesterday published deaths figures for the whole of 2023. In order to obtain a reliable assessment of the situation, I calculated the weekly time series of life expectancy, applied an ARIMA forecast from the reference epoch 2016-2020 and compared it with the actual values. In this way, results are now available for all 4 pandemic years to date (Fig. 1)

Author(s): Ulf Lorre

Publication Date: 10 Jan 2024

Publication Site: Demographic Data Analysis

Excess mortality and life expectancy

Mary Pat Campbell

Link: https://ulflorr.substack.com/p/excess-mortality-and-life-expectancy

Graphic:

Fig. 1: Annual values of life expectancy in Germany with fit (blue). The fit did not respect the values for 2021 and 2022.

Excerpt:

Life expectancy is relatively difficult to calculate. The mortality risk has to be determined from death and population figures for each individual year of life. A hurdle is that data are often only available in age cohorts. So the missing values have to be interpolated. Using the mortality risks, a fictitious newborn cohort is projected forward year by year until all have died. A weighted average value is calculated from those who died each year in this modeled time series, yielding the life expectancy.

Life expectancy in Germany increased for many years until 2020, allthough this trend seemed to be gradually approaching a saturation point, which might be around 82 years (Fig. 1).

Author(s): ULF LORRÉ

Publication Date: 30 Mar 2023

Publication Site: Demographic Data Analysis