Climate risk vs. interest-rate risk

Link: https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2024-01-18/coinbase-trades-beanie-babies

Excerpt:

An important meta-story that you could tell about financial markets over the past few years would be that, for a long time, interest rates were roughly zero, which means that discount rates were low: A dollar in the distant future was worth about as much as a dollar today. Therefore, investors ascribed a lot of value to very long-term stuff, and were not particularly concerned about short-term profitability. Low discount rates made speculative distant-future profits worth more and steady current profits worth less.

And then interest rates went up rapidly starting in 2022, and everyone’s priorities shifted. A dollar today is now worth a lot more than a dollar in 10 years. People prioritize profits today over speculation in the future.

This is a popular story to tell about the boom in, for instance, tech startups, or crypto: “Startups are a low-interest-rate phenomenon.” In 2020, people had a lot of money and a lot of patience, so they were willing to invest in speculative possibly-world-changing ideas that would take a long time to pay out. (Or to fund startups that lost money on every transaction in the long-term pursuit of market share.) In 2022, the Fed raised rates, people’s preferences changed, and the startup and crypto bubbles popped. 

I suppose, though, that you could tell a similar story about environmental investing? Climate change is, plausibly, a very large and very long-term threat to a lot of businesses. If you just go around doing everything normally this year, probably rising oceans won’t wash away your factories this year. But maybe they will in 2040. Maybe you should invest today in making your factories ocean-proof, or in cutting carbon emissions so the oceans don’t rise: That will cost you some money today, but will save you some money in 2040. Is it worth it? Well, depends on the discount rate. If rates are low, you will care more about 2040. If rates are high, you will care more about saving money today.

We have talked a few times about the argument that some kinds of environmental investing — the kind where you avoid investing in “dirty” companies, to starve them of capital and reduce the amount of dirty stuff they do — can be counterproductive, because it has the effect of raising those companies’ discount rates and thus making them even more short-term-focused. And being short-term-focused probably leads to more carbon emissions. (If you make it harder for coal companies to raise capital, maybe nobody will start a coal company, but existing coal companies will dig up more coal faster.)

But that argument applies more broadly. If you raise every company’s discount rate (because interest rates go up), then every company should be more short-term-focused. Every company should care a bit less about global temperatures in 2040, and a bit more about maximizing profits now. Maybe ESG was itself a low-interest-rates phenomenon.

Anyway here’s a Financial Times story about BlackRock Inc.:

BlackRock will stress “financial resilience” in its talks with companies this year as the $10tn asset manager puts less emphasis on climate concerns amid a political backlash to environmental, social and governance investing.

With artificial intelligence and high interest rates rattling companies globally, BlackRock wants to know how they are managing these risks to ensure they deliver long-term financial returns, the asset manager said on Thursday as it detailed its engagement priorities for 2024.

BlackRock reviews these priorities annually as it talks with thousands of companies before their annual meetings on issues ranging from how much their executives are paid to how effective their board directors are.

“The macroeconomic and geopolitical backdrop companies are operating in has changed. This new economic regime is shaped by powerful structural forces that we believe may drive divergent performance across economies, sectors and companies,” BlackRock said in its annual report on its engagement priorities. “We are particularly interested in learning from investee companies about how they are adapting to strengthen their financial resilience.”

There is a lot going on here, and it is reasonable to wonder— as the FT does — whether BlackRock’s shift from environmental concerns to high interest rates is about the political and marketing backlash to ESG. But you could take it on its own terms! In 2020, interest rates were zero, and BlackRock’s focus was on the long term. What was the biggest long-term risk to its portfolio? Arguably, climate change. So it went around talking to companies about climate change. In 2024, interest rates are high, and the short term matters more, so BlackRock is going around talking to companies about interest-rate risk.

I don’t know how AI fits into this model. For most of my life, “ooh artificial intelligence will change everything” has been a pretty long-term — like, science-fiction long-term — thing to think about. But I suppose now “how will you integrate large-language-model chatbots into your workflows” is an immediate question.

Author(s): Matt Levine

Publication Date: 18 Jan 2024

Publication Site: Bloomberg

NGO Study IDs Vanguard, BlackRock as Big Climate-Change Villains

Link: https://www.ai-cio.com/news/ngo-study-ids-vanguard-blackrock-big-climate-change-villains/

Excerpt:

Guess who the largest investors in climate-harming energy companies are? That would be major asset managers, with BlackRock and Vanguard Group the biggest offenders. So says an environmentalists’ report, “Investing in Climate Chaos.”

The report, spearheaded by Urgewald, a German environmental group, and conducted “in partnership” with more than 20 other nongovernmental organizations, comes down hard on two financial service stalwarts in particular: Vanguard, the mutual fund powerhouse, and BlackRock, the world’s largest asset manager.

Beyond those two, half of the stakes in fossil fuel companies identified in the report are held by just 23 investors. What’s more,18 of them are U.S.-based, the advocacy group stated, basing the report on data collected in January.

….

BlackRock has positions in oil and gas companies that account for two-thirds of the world’s yearly hydrocarbon production, per Urgewald. Its single largest energy holding is also Exxon, which is the firm’s ninth biggest equity position overall. . Although the asset manager has a policy against investing in any business that gets at least one-quarter of its revenue from coal, the report charged that BlackRock exempts power companies that use coal. “As a result, BlackRock remains the world’s largest investor in coal developers,” it said.

….

In the past, BlackRock has responded to critics on the right and the left by saying that, while it supports ESG, is not about to “dictate how clients should invest.” In a statement, it declared that “transition to a low carbon is in the interest of realizing the best long-term financial results for our clients.” 

Vanguard, also under GOP attack, has made much the same argument. It did raise environmentalists’ ire last year when it quit the investment-industry initiative on combating climate change, saying it wanted to “speak independently on matters of importance to our investors.” Some contended that Vanguard was just knuckling under to politicians’ pressure.

Author(s): Larry Light

Publication Date: 25 Apr 2023

Publication Site: ai-CIO

The great anti-ESG backlash

Link: https://thespectator.com/topic/great-anti-esg-backlash/

Excerpt:

The ESG story starts in 2004, when the three-letter acronym appeared in a UN report arguing for environmental, social and governance considerations to be hardwired into financial systems. Since then the term has been on a long but rapidly accelerating journey from NGO-world obscurity into the financial mainstream and subsequently the political limelight, prompting strong reactions from a chorus of prominent figures. Elon Musk calls it “a scam.” Peter Thiel says it’s a “hate factory.” Warren Buffett describes it as “asinine.”

Unsurprisingly for a piece of UN jargon that has become part of the political cut and thrust, “ESG” is often used to mean different things. Properly defined, it refers to an investment strategy that factors in environmental, social and corporate governance considerations. That might mean not investing in oil and gas companies, for example. Or it might mean only investing in companies that have a stated commitment to diversity, equity and inclusion. As it has grown in infamy, the acronym has also come to refer not only to investment products billed as ESG, but to other practices through which investment firms use their customers’ money to push political ends. For example, your pension may not be invested in an ESG fund, but the manager of that money may still be using stocks owned on your behalf to pursue political goals. A third, even broader, meaning is as a synonym for woke capitalism: a broad catch-all for big business’s embrace of bien pensant opinion, particularly on the environment.

….

This win-win rhetoric has been the rallying cry of the ESG crowd on what has looked like an unstoppable march. Make money and do good: who could possibly object? Millions have bought into this seductive logic. Globally, more than $35 trillion of assets are invested according to ESG considerations, an increase of more than 50 percent since 2016. From 2020 to 2022, the size of ESG assets in the United States grew by 40 percent. According to an analysis by the asset manager Pimco, ESG was mentioned on just 1 percent of earnings calls between 2005 and 2018. By 2021, that figure had risen to 20 percent.

….

If the anti-ESG movement has the wind in its sails, that’s in large part thanks to last year’s tumultuous geopolitical events and economic trends, foremost among them the war in Ukraine. The Russian invasion has transformed the ESG debate in two ways.

First, it has underscored the ethical dilemmas ESG champions would rather ignore. For example, many ESG funds rule out investment in weapons manufacturers. Is it really ethical to deny capital to the firms producing the material Ukraine needs to survive? Indeed, the socially responsible position is arguably the exact opposite.

Second, it has transformed the energy conversation in a way that has made many more of us acutely aware of the importance of cheap, abundant and reliable energy — and conscious that it cannot be taken for granted. In other words, each of us is a little more like Riley Moore’s West Virginia constituents, who don’t have much time for net-zero grandstanding given that they will be the ones who pay a heavy price for someone else’s pursuit of feel-good goals. What has always been true is becoming clearer: a financial system that starves domestic energy producers of capital not only hurts those whose savings are being used to pursue political ends, but ends up as a de facto tax on US consumers in the form of higher energy costs. ESG, says Goldman Sachs’s Michele Della Vigna, “creates affordability problems which could generate political backlash. That is the risk — political instability and the consumer effectively suffering from this cost inflation.”

Author(s): Oliver Wiseman

Publication Date: 22 Dec 2022

Publication Site: The Spectator

Arizona divesting funds from BlackRock over ESG push

Link: https://www.foxbusiness.com/markets/arizona-divesting-funds-from-blackrock-over-esg-push

Excerpt:

Arizona is forging ahead with its plan to pull the state’s funds from BlackRock due to concerns over the massive investment firm’s push for environmental, social, and governance (ESG) policies that have led other states to take similar actions.

Arizona Treasurer Kimberly Yee said in a statement released Thursday that the state treasury’s Investment Risk Management Committee (IRMC) began to assess the relationship between the state’s trust fund and BlackRock in late 2021. 

“Part of the review by IRMC involved reading the annual letters by CEO Larry Fink, which in recent years, began dictating to businesses in the United States to follow his personal political beliefs,” Yee wrote. “In short, BlackRock moved from a traditional asset manager to a political action committee. Our internal investment team believed this moved the firm away from its fiduciary duty in general as an asset manager.”

In response to those findings, Yee noted that Arizona began to divest over $543 million from BlackRock money market funds in February 2022 and “reduced our direct exposure to BlackRock by 97%” over the course of the year. Yee added that Arizona “will continue to reduce our remaining exposure in BlackRock over time in a phased in approach that takes into consideration safe and prudent investment strategy that protects the taxpayers.”

….

Florida’s chief financial officer announced recently that the state’s treasury is taking action to remove about $2 billion in assets from BlackRock’s stewardship before the end of this year. In October, Louisiana and Missouri announced they would reallocate state pension funds away from BlackRock, which amounted to roughly $1.3 billion in combined assets. Taken together with Arizona’s divestment, roughly $3.8 billion in state funds have been divested from BlackRock by those four states alone.

Additionally, North Carolina’s state treasurer has called for BlackRock CEO Larry Fink’s resignation and the Texas legislature has subpoenaed BlackRock for financial documents.

The investment firm has also taken heat from activists who argue BlackRock isn’t doing enough to follow through with its ESG commitments. New York City Comptroller Brad Lander wrote to Fink in September citing an “alarming” contradiction between the company’s words and its deeds. Lander wrote, “BlackRock cannot simultaneously declare that climate risk is a systemic financial risk and argue that BlackRock has no role in mitigating the risks that climate change poses to its investments by supporting decarbonization in the real economy.”

Author(s): Eric Revell

Publication Date: 11 Dec 2022

Publication Site: Fox Business

BlackRock’s Red-State Woes Continue as Florida Divests

Link: https://www.ai-cio.com/news/blackrocks-red-state-woes-continue-as-florida-divests/

Excerpt:

State Chief Financial Officer Jimmy Patronis announced Thursday that the Florida Treasury will begin divesting $2 billion worth of assets currently under management by BlackRock.

BlackRock managed $1.43 billion of Florida’s long duration portfolio, which includes investments such as corporate bonds, asset-backed securities and municipal bonds. Additionally, BlackRock managed $600 million of Florida funds in a short-term treasury fund, which invests in short-term and overnight investments.

Patronis cited efforts by BlackRock and its CEO, Larry Fink, to embrace environmental, social and governance investment principles as the reason Florida will pull the funds from the manager.. In the wake of the announcement, the state will freeze the $1.43 billion in long-term securities at its custodial bank.

….

“It’s my responsibility to get the best returns possible for taxpayers,” Patronis said in the statement. “The more effective we are in investing dollars to generate a return, the more effective we’ll be in funding priorities like schools, hospitals and roads. As major banking institutions and economists predict a recession in the coming year, and as the Fed increases interest rates to combat the inflation crisis, I need partners within the financial services industry who are as committed to the bottom line as we are – and I don’t trust BlackRock’s ability to deliver. As Larry Fink stated to CEOs, ‘Access to capital is not a right. It is a privilege.’ As Florida’s CFO, I agree wholeheartedly, so we’ll be taking Larry up on his offer.”

Author(s): Dusty Hagedorn

Publication Date: 2 December 2022

Publication Site: ai-CIO

19 GOP Attorneys General Slam BlackRock Over ESG Investments

Link: https://www.ai-cio.com/news/19-gop-attorneys-general-slam-blackrock-over-esg-investments/

Excerpt:

A group of 19 Republican state attorneys general have written a letter to BlackRock stating that the asset manager is using state pension fund assets in environmental, social and governance investments that “force the phase-out of fossil fuels, increase energy prices, drive inflation and weaken the national security of the United States.”

The eight-page letter outlines how the group believes BlackRock is using “the hard-earned money of our states’ citizens to circumvent the best possible return on investment.”

“Our states will not idly stand for our pensioners’ retirements to be sacrificed for BlackRock’s climate agenda. The time has come for BlackRock to come clean on whether it actually values our states’ most valuable stakeholders, our current and future retirees, or risk losses even more significant than those caused by BlackRock’s quixotic climate agenda,” the letter says.

The attorneys general asked BlackRock to respond by August 19.

Author(s): Amy Resnick

Publication Date: 9 Aug 2022

Publication Site: ai-CIO

Louisiana Divests Nearly $800 Million from BlackRock to Protect Fossil Fuel Industry

Link: https://www.ai-cio.com/news/louisiana-divests-nearly-800-million-from-blackrock-to-protect-fossil-fuel-industry/

Excerpt:

Louisiana Treasurer John Schroder is divesting $794 million worth of state funds from BlackRock because the world’s largest asset manager’s “blatantly anti-fossil fuel policies would destroy Louisiana’s economy.”

The divestment is in response to BlackRock’s sustainable investing philosophy, and for the firm calling on other companies to embrace net zero investment strategies that would harm the fossil fuel industry, which Schroder notes is a “vital part” of Louisiana’s economy.

“This divestment is necessary to protect Louisiana from actions and policies that would actively seek to hamstring our fossil fuel sector,” Schroder said in a letter to BlackRock CEO Larry Fink. “I refuse to invest a penny of our state’s funds with a company that would take food off tables, money out of pockets and jobs away from hardworking Louisianans.”

When asked to comment, a BlackRock spokesperson said the firm’s view is captured by a line in its Sept. 7 response to a letter it received from a group of 19 Republican state attorneys general saying environmental, social, and governance  investments weaken America’s national security.

Author(s): Michael Katz

Publication Date: 10 Oct 2022

Publication Site: ai-CIO

Louisiana Divests Nearly $800 Million from BlackRock to Protect Fossil Fuel Industry

Link: https://www.ai-cio.com/news/louisiana-divests-nearly-800-million-from-blackrock-to-protect-fossil-fuel-industry/

Excerpt:

Louisiana Treasurer John Schroder is divesting $794 million worth of state funds from BlackRock because the world’s largest asset manager’s “blatantly anti-fossil fuel policies would destroy Louisiana’s economy.”

The divestment is in response to BlackRock’s sustainable investing philosophy, and for the firm calling on other companies to embrace net zero investment strategies that would harm the fossil fuel industry, which Schroder notes is a “vital part” of Louisiana’s economy.

“This divestment is necessary to protect Louisiana from actions and policies that would actively seek to hamstring our fossil fuel sector,” Schroder said in a letter to BlackRock CEO Larry Fink. “I refuse to invest a penny of our state’s funds with a company that would take food off tables, money out of pockets and jobs away from hardworking Louisianans.”

When asked to comment, a BlackRock spokesperson said the firm’s view is captured by a line in its Sept. 7 response to a letter it received from a group of 19 Republican state attorneys general saying environmental, social, and governance  investments weaken America’s national security.

Author(s): Michael Katz

Publication Date: 10 Oct 2022

Publication Site: ai-CIO

Biden’s ESG Tax on Your Retirement Fund

Link: https://www.wsj.com/articles/bidens-esg-tax-on-your-retirement-fund-pension-planning-regulation-climate-change-investment-returns-portfolios-11658245467?st=4e8f8bvbqr4vurf&reflink=desktopwebshare_permalink

Excerpt:

BlackRock CEO Larry Fink wrote in 2020 that “sustainable investing is the strongest foundation for client portfolios.” Al Gore said in 2021 that “you don’t have to trade values for value. Green can enhance returns.” These claims haven’t aged well: ESG (environmental, social and governance) funds have trailed the market since the beginning of the year and are badly underperforming the sectors they shun, including oil, gas and coal.

That may spur retirement fund managers to reconsider their commitments to ESG funds. But new ESG-favoring regulations may come to the rescue. Last year the U.S. Labor Department proposed a regulation that would tell retirement-fund managers to consider ESG factors such as “climate change” and “collateral benefits other than investment returns” when investing employees’ money.

This would encourage America’s perpetually underfunded pension plans to invest in politically correct but unproven ESG strategies. It would also violate retirees’ basic right to have their money invested solely to advance their financial interests.

….

The new regulation may also expose fiduciaries who don’t consider ESG factors to lawsuits. Already, activist shareholders are pursuing litigation against public companies that don’t take ESG-approved steps. NortonLifeLock was sued for allegedly breaching its fiduciary duties by telling investors it was committed to “diversity” when it had no racial minorities on its board. Exxon was sued for allegedly misleading investors by failing to disclose the likely effect of climate change on its bottom line. To date, courts have generally found that no reasonable investor would make investment decisions based on board diversity or, as one judge put it, “speculative assumptions of costs that may be incurred 20+ or 30+ years in the future.”

Author(s): Vivek Ramaswamy and Alex Acosta

Publication Date: 19 Jul 2022

Publication Site: WSJ

BlackRock Tweaked Some Models. It Triggered a Wave of Buying and Selling.

Link: https://www.wsj.com/articles/blackrock-tweaked-some-models-it-triggered-a-wave-of-buying-and-selling-11625857596?mod=itp_wsj&ru=yahoo

Excerpt:

In late May, an obscure BlackRock Inc. commodities fund took in more than $1 billion in new money in less than a week.

The iShares GSCI Commodity Dynamic Roll Strategy exchange-traded fund was a relatively small fund in BlackRock’s larger suite of funds. But on the week of May 26, the ETF—which trades under the ticker COMT and tracks futures contracts tied to commodities from energy to metals to agriculture—scored its biggest one-day influx of new cash on record, according to FactSet data.

The surge helped the ETF more than double its assets under management to more than $2 billion.

The answer for why so much money flowed into the fund wasn’t solely because Wall Street traders were up in arms with inflation fears that were helping to drive idle funds into commodity investments. According to BlackRock documents and people familiar with the matter, BlackRock had sent instructions to brokerages and other financial platforms to alter a series of “model portfolios” to include this fund.

Model portfolios are ready-made fund combos delivered through financial advisers and brokerages to everyday investors. Brokerages can design their own model portfolios, or rely on guidance from fund companies like BlackRock. The May surge in the BlackRock fund shows just how powerful that guidance can be.

Author(s): Dawn Lim

Publication Date: 9 July 2021

Publication Site: WSJ

GOP senators press TSP managers on fiduciary duty vs. ESG

Link: https://www.pionline.com/washington/gop-senators-press-tsp-managers-fiduciary-duty-vs-esg?utm_source=p-i-editor-s-pick&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=20210702&utm_content=article3-headline&CSAuthResp=1625616942174%3A0%3A73393%3A0%3A24%3Asuccess%3AFEA86842B20E7441526766BAA1004F10#cci_r=

Excerpt:

Two Republican senators expressed concern that Thrift Savings Plan asset managers BlackRock and State Street Global Advisors are putting ESG and their CEOs’ “left-leaning” priorities ahead of their fiduciary duties when it comes to proxy voting.

In a letter Thursday to Federal Retirement Thrift Investment Board Acting Chairman David A. Jones, Sens. Pat Toomey of Pennsylvania and Ron Johnson of Wisconsin questioned the priorities of BlackRock and State Street Global Advisors, who between them manage nearly $500 billion for the $762.3 billion Thrift Savings Plan’s 6.2 million federal employees and members of the uniformed services. Of that, roughly $57 billion is managed by SSGA.

“We are concerned that BlackRock and SSGA may be prioritizing their CEOs’ personal policy views over retirees’ financial security,” the letter said.

Author(s): Hazel Bradford

Publication Date: 1 July 2021

Publication Site: Pensions & Investments

Who Really Pays for ESG Investing?

Link: https://www.wsj.com/articles/who-really-pays-for-esg-investing-11620858462

Excerpt:

A recent analysis by Scientific Beta disputes “claims that ESG funds have tended to outperform the wider market.” Sony Kapoor, managing director of the Nordic Institute for Finance, Technology and Sustainability, a think tank, told the Financial Times that the research “puts in black and white what is only whispered in the corridors of finance — most ESG investing is a ruse to launder reputations, maximize fees and assuage guilt.”

BlackRock’s former chief investment officer for sustainable investing, Tariq Fancy, appears to understand this. He recently wrote in USA Today that he was concerned about portfolio managers exploiting the “E” of ESG investing because “claiming to be environmentally responsible is profitable” but advancing “real change in the environment simply doesn’t yield the same return.” Mr. Fancy criticized “stalling and greenwashing” in “the name of profits.”

This is a tacit admission that ESG investing upends the fiduciary duties portfolio managers owe their clients. As Mr. Fancy acknowledged, “no matter what they tout as green investing, portfolio managers are legally bound” to “do nothing that compromises profits.” As former Labor Secretary Eugene Scalia wrote on these pages last year, under the federal law that protects retirement assets, known as Erisa, “one ‘social’ goal trumps all others — retirement security for American workers.”

Author(s): Andy Puzder, Diane Black

Publication Date: 12 May 2021

Publication Site: Wall Street Journal