Tag: 2020

The Covid-19 Death Toll Is Even Worse Than It Looks

Mary Pat Campbell

Link: https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-covid-19-death-toll-is-even-worse-than-it-looks-11610636840

Graphic:

Description: Estimating global excess mortality, and comparing against official COVID death counts. As of date of publication, official COVID deaths globally were about 2 million (excluding: China and India, and many other large countries), while excess deaths for 2020 were about 2.8 million.

Authors: Paul Overberg, Jon Kamp and Daniel Michaels

Graphs by: Lindsay Huth

Publication Date: 14 January 2021

Publication Site: Wall Street Journal

Reductions in 2020 US life expectancy due to COVID-19 and the disproportionate impact on the Black and Latino populations

Mary Pat Campbell

Link: https://www.pnas.org/content/118/5/e2014746118

Abstract: COVID-19 has resulted in a staggering death toll in the United States: over 215,000 by mid-October 2020, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Black and Latino Americans have experienced a disproportionate burden of COVID-19 morbidity and mortality, reflecting persistent structural inequalities that increase risk of exposure to COVID-19 and mortality risk for those infected. We estimate life expectancy at birth and at age 65 y for 2020, for the total US population and by race and ethnicity, using four scenarios of deaths—one in which the COVID-19 pandemic had not occurred and three including COVID-19 mortality projections produced by the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation. Our medium estimate indicates a reduction in US life expectancy at birth of 1.13 y to 77.48 y, lower than any year since 2003. We also project a 0.87-y reduction in life expectancy at age 65 y. The Black and Latino populations are estimated to experience declines in life expectancy at birth of 2.10 and 3.05 y, respectively, both of which are several times the 0.68-y reduction for Whites. These projections imply an increase of nearly 40% in the Black−White life expectancy gap, from 3.6 y to over 5 y, thereby eliminating progress made in reducing this differential since 2006. Latinos, who have consistently experienced lower mortality than Whites (a phenomenon known as the Latino or Hispanic paradox), would see their more than 3-y survival advantage reduced to less than 1 y.

Authors: Theresa Andrasfay and Noreen Goldman

Reference: PNAS February 2, 2021 118 (5) e2014746118; https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2014746118

Publication Date: 2 February 2021

Publication Site: PNAS

LiveScience: US life expectancy drops dramatically due to COVID-19

Mary Pat Campbell

Link: https://www.livescience.com/us-life-expectancy-drop-covid-19.html

Description: U.S. life expectancy just dropped by more than a year — the largest decline in decades — as a result of the sheer number of deaths from COVID-19, according to estimates from a new study. This is calculating “life expectancy” from calendar year mortality.

Author: Rachael Rettner

Publication date: 16 January 2021

Publication site: LiveScience