Tag: 2020

The Leading Causes of Death in the US for 2020

Mary Pat Campbell

Link: https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2778234

Graphic:

Excerpt:

The provisional number of deaths occurring in the US among US residents in 2020 was 3 358 814, an increase of 503 976 (17.7%) from 2 854 838 in 2019 (Table). Historic trends in mortality show seasonality in the number of deaths throughout the year, with the number of deaths higher in the winter and lower in the summer. The eFigure in the Supplement shows that death counts by week from 2015 to 2019 followed a normal seasonal pattern, with higher average death counts in weeks 1 through 10 (n = 58 366) and weeks 35 through 52 (n = 52 892) than in weeks 25 through 34 (n = 50 227). In contrast, increased deaths in 2020 occurred in 3 distinct waves that peaked during weeks 15 (n = 78 917), 30 (n = 64 057), and 52 (n = 80 656), with only the latter wave aligning with historic seasonal patterns.

Author(s): Farida B. Ahmad, Robert N. Anderson

Publication Date: 31 March 2021

Publication Site: JAMA

Yahoo Story on Florida COVID Study Misrepresented Key Finding, Study’s Author Says

Mary Pat Campbell

Link: https://www.nationalreview.com/news/yahoo-story-on-florida-covid-study-misrepresented-key-finding-studys-author-says/

Excerpt:

But Moosa Tatar, the lead author of the study featured by Yahoo, said the story’s framing of his analysis was incorrect, and he does not yet know how many of the excess deaths are attributable to COVID.

“The impact of COVID-19 on mortality is significantly greater than the official COVID-19 data suggest. But we need further research to determine specific reasons for this,” he told National Review. “These deaths may have been directly or indirectly associated with COVID-19.”

Nazaryan went on to imply that Governor Ron DeSantis could be pressuring the state’s medical examiners, who have “some discretion,” to deliberately undercount COVID deaths. “In Florida, the state’s 25 district medical examiners are directly appointed by the governor,” he noted.

Author(s): Tobias Hoonhout

Publication Date: 30 March 2021

Publication Site: National Review

Opioid deaths in America reached new highs in the pandemic

Mary Pat Campbell

Link: https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2021/03/30/opioid-deaths-in-america-reached-new-highs-in-the-pandemic

Graphic:

Excerpt:


LAST YEAR was a woeful time for people suffering from a drug addiction. Government shutdowns brought job losses and social isolation—conditions that make a transportive high all the more enticing. Those who had previously used drugs with others did so alone; if they overdosed, no one was around to call for help or administer naloxone, a medication that reverses opioid overdoses.

Fatal overdoses were marching upwards before the pandemic. But they leapt in the first part of last year as states locked down, according to provisional data from the Centres for Disease Control and Prevention. Deaths from synthetic opioids—the biggest killer—were up by 52% year-on-year in the 12 months to August, the last month for which data are available. Those drugs killed nearly 52,000 Americans during the period; cocaine and heroin killed about 16,000 and 14,000, respectively (see chart). Once fatalities are fully tallied for 2020, in a few months’ time, it is likely to be the deadliest year yet in America’s opioid epidemic.

Publication Date: 30 March 2021

Publication Site: The Economist

Has the Pandemic Set Female Leadership Back?

Mary Pat Campbell

Link: https://knowledge.wharton.upenn.edu/article/pandemic-set-female-leadership-back/

Excerpt:

About 2.3 million women have exited the U.S. labor force since the pandemic began, compared with about 1.8 million men, according to government data. Many were driven out by layoffs in food service, health care, and hospitality — sectors that employ a majority of women and that have been most affected by the economic slowdown. Others left their jobs voluntarily, forced to stay home and care for children suddenly unable to attend school or daycare.

As a result, female participation in the workforce has dropped to 57%, a level not seen since 1988. The situation is dire enough that U.S. President Joe Biden called it “a national emergency.” With schools reopening and vaccines becoming more widely available, there is light at the end of the pandemic tunnel, but questions remain about whether working women will recover from such a deep setback.

Publication Date: 30 March 2021

Publication Site: Knowledge @ Wharton

Financial Report of the United States Government, 2020

Mary Pat Campbell

Link: https://www.fiscal.treasury.gov/files/reports-statements/financial-report/2020/fr-03-25-2021-(final).pdf

Graphic:

Excerpt:

The government deducts tax and other revenues from net cost (with some adjustments) to derive its FY 2020
“bottom line” net operating cost of $3.8 trillion.
o From Chart 4, total government tax and other
revenues decreased slightly by $49.4 billion (1.4
percent) to about $3.6 trillion for FY 2020. This
net decrease was due primarily to a $51.6 billion
decrease in individual tax revenue, compared with
an offsetting decrease and increase in corporate
and other tax revenue, respectively.
o Together, individual income tax and tax
withholdings, and corporate taxes accounted for
about 88.8 percent of total tax and other revenues
in FY 2020. Other revenues include Federal
Reserve earnings, excise taxes, and customs
duties.

Publication Date: March 25, 2021

Publication Site: Treasury Department

The Spike in Drug Overdose Deaths During the COVID-19 Pandemic and Policy Options to Move Forward

Mary Pat Campbell

Link: https://www.commonwealthfund.org/blog/2021/spike-drug-overdose-deaths-during-covid-19-pandemic-and-policy-options-move-forward

Graphic:

Excerpt:

The CDC’s National Vital Statistics System (NVSS) provides monthly provisional data on predicted total drug overdose deaths during the preceding 12 months. The most recent data reflect September 2019 through August 2020. During that period, there were 88,295 predicted deaths, a record high that is almost 19,000 more deaths (27%) than the prior 12-month period.

Using these predicted data in combination with final data from 2019, we estimated monthly overdose deaths from January to August 2020. Our estimates show that total overdose deaths spiked to record levels in March 2020 after the pandemic hit. Monthly deaths grew by about 50 percent between February and May to more than 9,000; they were likely still around 8,000 in August. Prior to 2020, U.S. monthly overdose deaths had never risen above 6,300.

Author(s): Jesse C. Baumgartner, David C. Radley

Publication Date: 25 March 2021

Publication Site: The Commonwealth Fund

State Aid in American Rescue Plan Act Is 116 Times States’ Revenue Losses

Mary Pat Campbell
State Aid in American Rescue Plan Act Is 116 Times States’ Revenue Losses

Excerpt:

Forty-three states and the District of Columbia have now published revenue data for all 12 months of 2020; in those states, revenues are up $3.2 billion in aggregate compared to the previous calendar year, thanks to robust gains in financial markets and federal assistance that has kept businesses afloat and provided benefits to individuals. Some of those are, indeed, taxable benefits, in the case of enhanced and expanded unemployment compensation benefits. For the remaining seven states, it is necessary to project revenues through the end of the calendar year based either on U.S. Census Bureau data through the three quarters, or, in Nevada and New Mexico, state data running through October and November respectively.

These adjustments yield an aggregate $1.7 billion decline in state revenues. Under the American Rescue Plan Act, states would receive $195.3 billion in aid, divided according to each state’s share of national unemployed workers. Under Senate amendments, a further adjustment is made to ensure that each state receives, at minimum, the amount it was allocated for purposes of the Coronavirus Relief Fund under the CARES Act. While some conservative lawmakers have criticized this allocation model (which benefits states with steeper job losses) on the grounds that different state policies and approaches may yield some of this variation and that the federal government should be neutral to these decisions, we have argued previously that using the change in unemployment is a more efficient targeting method than allocating aid per capita. Far less defensible, however, is the notion that aid to states should be 116 times the decline in state revenues—especially since the federal government has already provided over $200 billion in fungible aid to subnational governments.

Author(s): Jared Walczak

Publication Date: 3 March 2021

Publication Site: Tax Foundation

The world is far from hitting its target for carbon emissions

Mary Pat Campbell

Link: https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2021/03/05/the-world-is-far-from-hitting-its-target-for-carbon-emissions

Graphic:

Excerpt:

LAST YEAR’S clear spring skies foreshadowed it and the numbers bear it out: covid-19 lockdowns caused a sharp drop in emissions from burning fossil fuels, the largest such drop since the second world war. The latest data, published on March 3rd by the Global Carbon Project, an international consortium of climate researchers, puts industrial carbon-dioxide emissions produced in 2020 at 34bn tonnes, 2.6bn tonnes (7%) lower than in 2019.

Clearly, 2020 was an unusual year and emissions have already started to rebound. What is more, the drop came at a huge cost to economies and societies. Yet, in order to meet the Paris agreement’s goal of limiting global warming to between 1.5°C and 2°C above pre-industrial levels, more big cuts will be needed for the rest of the decade. “We need a cut in emissions of about the size of the fall [from the pandemic] every two years, but by completely different methods,” said Corinne Le Quéré, of the University of East Anglia, one of the lead researchers on the study.

Publication Date: 5 March 2021

Publication Site: The Economist

Covid Baby Bust Has Governments Rattled

Mary Pat Campbell
Covid Baby Bust Has Governments Rattled

Graphic:

Excerpt:

Of course, there’s a case to be made that fewer people in advanced economies is a good thing. But arrayed against that are all the “because groaf” forces. The two drivers of growth are demographic growth, as in more people, and productivity increases. National leaders are afraid of becoming the new Japan, having an aging population and falling in the “size of economy” pecking order, when Japan has weathered a financial system crisis and implosion of real estate prices with remarkable grace. And the demographic time bomb? The feared dependency ratio? More older Japanese work. Japanese even more so than Westerners prize attachment to communities and organizations, so it would probably suit those who are able to handle it to remain in the saddle or get a part-time job.

But the big point is that the Covid impact on child-bearing is widespread and looks set to continue for quite a while. The old solution in advanced economies for low birth rates was immigration. But that’s now become fraught. First is that neoliberalism-induced widening income disparity means those on the bottom are extremely insecure. Bringing more people in to them sure looks like a mechanism for keeping their crappy wages down. Second is advanced economies now eschew assimilation as if it were racist. But what did you expect, say, when Germany brought in Syrian refugees, who skewed male and young, and didn’t even arrange to teach them German? The notion that there’s a public sphere, where citizens hew to national norms versus a private sphere seems to have been lost (having said that, I don’t understand the fuss about headscarves; Grace Kelly wore them, so why should a religious intent matter?).

Author(s): Yves Smith

Publication Date: 5 March 2021

Publication Site: naked capitalism

Covid-19 Isn’t the Only Thing Shortening American Lives

Mary Pat Campbell

Link: https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2021-02-23/covid-19-isn-t-the-only-thing-shortening-american-lives

Graphic:

Excerpt:

The 2020 life expectancy numbers also underscore longer-term health challenges that were already alarming. For two to three decades, life expectancy has been improving much more rapidly for higher earners than for lower earners, and 2020 has probably made these gaps worse. The one bright spot in the differential trends before the pandemic had been a narrowing of racial differences. These new estimates show a dramatic reversal of that hopeful pattern. From the early 1990s to 2016, the racial gap in life expectancy for males at birth shrunk from more than 8 years to about 4.5. During the first half of 2020, it widened to more than 7 years.

…..

On the contrary, 2020 mortality data indicate that death rates from non-Covid causes rose, despite the economic recession. More Americans than expected died from diabetes, high blood pressure and pneumonia. Some of these deaths may have been misreported, and actually caused by Covid. But a large number may also reflect the challenges in providing non-Covid health care during the past year, as people have avoided hospitals, and government mandates have restricted discretionary medical procedures. The pandemic will provide hard lessons on which types of medical care truly improve health, and which ones can be safely skipped or delayed.

Author(s): Peter R. Orszag

Publication Date: 23 February 2021

Publication Site: Bloomberg

US life expectancy drops a year in pandemic, most since WWII

Mary Pat Campbell

Link: https://apnews.com/article/us-life-expectancy-huge-decline-f4caaf4555563d09e927f1798136a869

Graphic:

Excerpt:

Life expectancy in the United States dropped a staggering one year during the first half of 2020 as the coronavirus pandemic caused its first wave of deaths, health officials are reporting.

Minorities suffered the biggest impact, with Black Americans losing nearly three years and Hispanics, nearly two years, according to preliminary estimates Thursday from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

“This is a huge decline,” said Robert Anderson, who oversees the numbers for the CDC. “You have to go back to World War II, the 1940s, to find a decline like this.”

Author(s): MARILYNN MARCHIONE

Publication Date: 17 February 2021

Publication Site: Associated Press

2020 Excess Deaths in the US general population by Age and Sex

Mary Pat Campbell

Link: https://www.soa.org/resources/research-reports/2021/excess-deaths-gen-population/

Report link: https://www.soa.org/globalassets/assets/files/resources/research-report/2021/excess-deaths-gen-population.pdf

Graphic:

Excerpt:

Excluding the first two and a half months of 2020 before COVID-19 deaths were prevalent, the total U.S. mortality A/E ratio ranged between 119% and 121%, with about 84% of the excess deaths identified as due to COVID-19. Considering the full year of 2020, the A/E ranged between 114% and 116%.

Deaths for people under age 15 were lower than expected, but all older ages showed excess mortality. The following table considers the A/E ratios for the period after the emergence of COVID-19 and uses a fiveyear trend on death rates by ages and sex to set the expected deaths.

Author(s): Rick Leavitt, ASA, MAAA

Publication Date: February 2021

Publication Site: Society of Actuaries