Is the Great Stagnation Over?

Excerpt:

Cowen cautioned that many technological advances would doubtlessly improve human welfare but still might not show up in U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) and productivity statistics. For example, the new plug-and-play vaccine platforms may well result in highly effective vaccines for malaria and HIV, and that would be a huge boon for millions of people living in poor countries, but those benefits would be unlikely to show up U.S. GDP per capita statistics. He also pointed out that the recent significant advances in green energy production are occurring chiefly as a way to avoid the possible catastrophe of man-made climate change. Because climate change is a hidden counterfactual, replacing fossil fuels with solar, wind, and batteries would not necessarily lead people to feel as though their standard of living had risen.

Strain countered that the toll that infectious disease takes on the stunting of talents and skills in poor countries would be greatly ameliorated by rolling out cheap effective vaccines now made possible by messenger RNA technology. Over a longer time horizon, the U.S. and the rest of the world would significantly benefit from efflorescence of invention and entrepreneurship arising in regions whose development is held back by prevalent plagues.

Author(s): Ronald Bailey

Publication Date: 7 April 2021

Publication Site: Reason

14th Actuarial Speculative Fiction Submissions

Link: https://www.soa.org/sections/2020-speculative-fiction-contest/

Excerpt:

The 14th Speculative Fiction Contest is over, and we now get to find out which story is the readers’ favorite!

Read each of the stories submitted by our creative and imaginative actuaries. Pick up to three of your favorite stories and vote for no more than three, so that we have a true Readers’ Choice Award. We will award the author of the story getting the most votes a specially designed Speculative Fiction Zoom background and an SOA branded gift. Be sure to tell your friends about this contest. Get them to read the stories and pick their favorites too!

Voting online must occur from March 8 – April 15. On May 1 this award, as well as all the other awards will be announced on the SOA website.

Publication Date: March 2021

Publication Site: Society of Actuaries

Huge vaccine error: 9,000 patients were forgotten

Link: https://stiften.dk/artikel/k%C3%A6mpe-vaccinefejl-9-000-patienter-blev-glemt

Excerpt (via Google Translate):

Jørgen Schøler Kristensen, Medical Director at Aarhus University Hospital, explains the error as follows:

– When patients with a civil registration number beginning with 0 had to be entered, the civil registration number was declared invalid if a hyphen was missing. So 26 percent of the civil registration numbers we have reported have not been entered correctly, so they have not received the invitation in their e-box to be vaccinated as they should have had, says Jørgen Schøler Kristensen.

Patients born the first nine days of any month and having been unlucky with a hyphen were forgotten.

Additional:

Author(s): Jens Christian Thaysen

Publication Date: 19 March 2021

Publication Site: Århus Stiftstidende

Amazon jumps into health care with telemedicine initiative

Link: https://abcnews.go.com/Business/wireStory/amazon-jumps-health-care-telemedicine-initiative-76508970

Excerpt:

Amazon is making its first foray into providing health care services, announcing Wednesday that it will be offering its Amazon Care telemedicine program to employers nationwide.

Currently available to the company’s employees in Washington state, Amazon Care is an app that connects users virtually with doctors, nurse practitioners and nurses who can provide services and treatment over the phone 24 hours a day. In the Seattle area, it’s supplemented with in-person services such as pharmacy delivery and house-call services from nurses who can take blood work and provide similar services.

On Wednesday, the tech giant announced it will immediately expand the service to interested employers in Washington who want to purchase the service for their employees. By the summer, Amazon Care will expand nationally to all Amazon workers, and to private employers across the country who want to join.

Author(s): MATTHEW BARAKAT, Associated Press

Publication Date: 17 March 2021

Publication Site: ABC News

Ethics and use of Data Sources for Underwriting ft. Neil Raden and Kevin Pledge -NSNA(Ep.4)

Video:

Description:

The video features Neil Raden who is the author of ethical use of AI for Actuaries. Alongside him , it features Kevin Pledge who is CEO of Acceptiv , FSA,FIA and chair of Innovation and Research Committee of SOA. We discuss about the issue of ethics and about the use of new data sources in the recent Emerging issues in Underwriting Survey Report by IfOA.

Authors: Harsh Jaitak, Kevin Pledge, Neil Raden

Publication Date: 17 March 2021

Publication Site: TBD Actuarial at YouTube

Excel Never Dies: The Spreadsheet That Launched A Million Companies

Link: https://www.notboring.co/p/excel-never-dies

Graphic:

Excerpt:

Excel may be the most influential software ever built. It is a canonical example of Steve Job’s bicycle of the mind, endowing its users with computational superpowers normally reserved for professional software engineers. Armed with those superpowers, users can create fully functional software programs in the form of a humble spreadsheet to solve problems in a seemingly limitless number of domains. These programs often serve as high-fidelity prototypes of domain specific applications just begging to be brought to market in a more polished form. 

If you want to see the future of B2B software, look at what Excel users are hacking together in spreadsheets today. Excel’s success has inspired the creation of software whose combined enterprise value dwarfs that of Excel alone.

Author(s): Packy McCormick

Publication Date: 8 March 2021

Publication Site: Not Boring

Recovering from the SolarWinds hack could take 18 months

Link: https://www.technologyreview.com/2021/03/02/1020166/solarwinds-brandon-wales-hack-recovery-18-months/

Excerpt:

Brandon Wales, the acting director of CISA, the US Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Agency, says that it will be well into 2022 before officials have fully secured the government networks compromised by Russian hackers. The list includes at least nine federal agencies, including the Department of Homeland Security and the State Department. Even fully understanding the extent of the damage will take months.

“I wouldn’t call this simple,” Wales says. “There are two phases for response to this incident. There is the short-term remediation effort, where we look to remove the adversary from the network, shutting down accounts they control, and shutting down entry points the adversary used to access networks. But given the amount of time they were inside these networks—months—strategic recovery will take time.”

Author(s): Patrick Howell O’Neill

Publication Date: 2 March 2021

Publication Site: MIT Technology Review

A Letter Sealed for Centuries Has Been Read—Without Even Opening It

Link: https://www.wsj.com/articles/a-letter-sealed-for-centuries-has-been-readwithout-even-opening-it-11614679203?mod=djemwhatsnews

Excerpt:

The “virtual unfolding” of the letter—the culmination of a four-year project described in a paper published Tuesday in the journal Nature Communications—points to a new line of historical research into the centuries-old practice of letterlocking. That’s the term used to describe the use of origami-like folds to hide the content of letters before envelopes came into wide use in the mid-1800s.

“This is a dream come true in the field of conservation,” said Jana Dambrogio, the conservator at the research library at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology and one of 11 authors of the paper.

Experts say the technique used to reveal the text of the letter, which includes a type of imaging called X-ray microtomography, could also have applications in healthcare and engineering.

Author(s): Sara Castellanos

Publication Date: 2 March 2021

Publication Site: Wall Street Journal

Former SolarWinds CEO blames intern for ‘solarwinds123’ password leak

Link: https://www.cnn.com/2021/02/26/politics/solarwinds123-password-intern/index.html

Excerpt:

Current and former top executives at SolarWinds are blaming a company intern for a critical lapse in password security that apparently went undiagnosed for years.

The password in question, “solarwinds123,” was discovered in 2019 on the public internet by an independent security researcher who warned the company that the leak had exposed a SolarWinds file server.

Several US lawmakers ripped into SolarWinds for the password issue Friday, in a joint hearing by the House Oversight and Homeland Security committees.

“I’ve got a stronger password than ‘solarwinds123’ to stop my kids from watching too much YouTube on their iPad,” said Rep. Katie Porter. “You and your company were supposed to be preventing the Russians from reading Defense Department emails!”

Author(s): Brian Fung and Geneva Sands

Publication Date: 26 February 2021

Publication Site: CNN

Analyzing Census Data in Excel

Link: https://www.census.gov/data/academy/courses/excel.html

Description

Excel is a very popular tool among all data users. It can be leveraged to unlock the value of open data of all kinds, and it is particularly well-suited to transforming, analyzing, and visualizing Census data. This course will show how to use Excel to access, manipulate, and visualize Census data.  It will also tools for doing advanced statistical analysis.

After completing this course, you will be able to:
    ✓    Access data from the Census Bureau using the American FactFinder
    ✓    Format tables for data analysis
    ✓    Perform basic and advanced analysis of Census data using Excel
    ✓    Create data visualizations such as sparklines, hierarchical charts, and histograms

Author(s): Andy Hecktman, Alexandra Barker

Date Accessed: 27 February 2021

Publication Site: U.S. Census Bureau

The R Inferno

Link: https://www.burns-stat.com/pages/Tutor/R_inferno.pdf

Graphic:

Abstract: If you are using R and you think you’re in hell, this is a map for
you.

Excerpt:

I wandered through
http://www.r-project.org.

To state the good I found there, I’ll also say what else I saw.

Having abandoned the true way, I fell into a deep sleep and awoke in a deep dark wood. I set out to escape the wood, but my path was blocked by a lion. As I fled to lower ground, a figure appeared before me. “Have mercy on me, whatever you are,” I cried, “whether shade or living human.”

Author(s): Patrick Burns

Publication Date: 30 April 2011

Publication Site: Burns Statistics