TD Was Convenient for Criminals

Link: https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2024-10-14/td-was-convenient-for-criminals?srnd=undefined

Excerpt:

But TD Bank’s problem — which led to the largest AML-failures penalty ever — was not just about ignoring red flags. The more fundamental problem is that TD Bank tried to do its anti-money-laundering compliance on the cheap, and the prosecutors and regulators hate that. The Justice Department says:

[The TD Bank Global Anti-Money Laundering (GAML) group]’s budget was a primary driver of its decisions about projects, hiring, staffing, and technology enhancements throughout the relevant period. GAML executives strove to maintain what TD Bank Group referred to as a “flat cost paradigm” or “zero expense growth paradigm,” meaning that each department’s budget, including GAML’s, was expected to remain flat year-over-year, despite consistent growth in TD Bank Group’s revenue over the relevant period. This budgetary pressure originated with senior bank executives and was achieved within GAML and US-AML by [its chief AML officer] and [its Bank Secrecy Act officer], both of whom touted their abilities to operate within the “flat cost paradigm without compromising risk appetite” in their self-assessments. GAML’s base and project expenditures on USAML were less in fiscal year 2021 than they were in fiscal year 2018 and were not sufficient to address AML deficiencies including substantial backlogs of alerts across multiple workstreams, despite TDBNA’s profits increasing approximately 26% during the same period. In 2019, [the chief AML officer] referred to the Bank’s “historical underspend” on compliance in an email to the Group senior executive responsible for the enterprise AML budget, yet the US-AML budget essentially stayed flat. GAML and US-AML employees explained to the Offices that budgetary restrictions led to systemic deficiencies in the Bank’s transaction monitoring program and exposed the Bank to potential legal and regulatory consequences.

That, I think, is why the fine was so big. The message that this case is meant to send to banks is “if your compliance team wants more money to build a better AML program, you’d better give it to them, because otherwise we will fine you orders of magnitude more money than you would have spent.” The attorney general said:

TD Bank chose profits over compliance, in order to keep its costs down.

That decision is now costing the bank billions of dollars in criminal and civil penalties.

The deputy attorney general added:

We are putting down a clear marker on what we expect from financial institutions — and the consequences for failure.

When it comes to compliance, there are really only two options: invest now – or face severe consequences later.

As I’ve said before, a corporate strategy that pursues profits at the expense of compliance isn’t a path to riches; it’s a path to federal prosecution.

One job of a bank is to stop crime, which means that banks employ thousands of people who essentially work for the US Department of Justice. But the Department of Justice has no direct control over how many of those people there are, how much they get paid or what resources they have. Law enforcement agencies cannot directly set the banks’ budgets for anti-money-laundering programs, even though those budgets really are part of law enforcement. It is, perhaps, a frustrating situation: The Justice Department would like banks to spend more money catching criminals, and it can’t quite make them.

Except obviously it can. The Justice Department can’t directly set banks’ AML budgets, but it can do it indirectly, and it just did. If you are a bank compliance officer and you want to hire 2,000 people and get some shiny new computers, you can go to your regulators and say “do we need to spend this money on AML,” and they will say “that would be better,” and you will go to your chief executive officer with a transcript of the TD Bank press conference, and you will get whatever you want. 

Author(s): Matt Levine

Publication Date: 14 Oct 2024

Publication Site: Bloomberg

Longevity Illustrator: Find Out How Long You Might Live

Link: https://www.kiplinger.com/retirement/longevity-illustrator-find-out-how-long-you-might-live

Excerpt:

When planning for retirement, it’s important to consider all the risks, and one consideration that individuals often overlook is “longevity risk.” Longevity risk refers to the chance a person could outlive their savings. Understanding longevity and reasonably estimating the probabilities of living to various advanced ages and the risk of outliving resources are important for planning a secure retirement.

As a result of healthy lifestyles, medical advancements and scientific discoveries, it has become much more common for people these days to live into their 80s and 90s — or even their 100s! In fact, Pew Research Center writes that, according to estimates by the U.S. Census Bureau, there are about 101,000 centenarians in the U.S. in 2024, and this population could quadruple to about 422,000 in 2054.

While a long life is something most people desire, it requires planning for a longer retirement than in the past. For example, if a worker retires at 67, planning for a 20-year retirement may not be enough, and if they live to be in their 90s, or even past 100, they could outlive their savings or end up with fewer assets to leave their heirs.

Author(s):  Lisa A. Schilling, FSA, EA, FCA, MAAA

Publication Date: 22 Sept 2024

Publication Site: Kiplinger Personal Finance

Actuarial ChatBots

Link: https://riskviews.wordpress.com/actuarial-chatbots/

Graphic:

Excerpt:

Here are several examples of ChatBots and other AI applications for actuaries to try.

Answers that you might get from a general AI LLM such as ChatGPT may or may not correctly represent the latest thinking in actuarial science. These chatBots make an effort to educate the LLM with actuarial or other pertinent literature so that you can get better informed answers.

But, you need to be a critical user. Please be careful with the responses that you get from these ChatBots and let us know if you find any issues. This is still early days for the use of AI in actuarial practice and we need to learn from our experiences and move forward.

Note from meep: there are multiple Apps/Bots linked from the main site.

Author(s): David Ingram

Publication Date: accessed 28 Aug 2024

Publication Site: Risk Views

Adele vs. Taylor Swift, Covid, and Entertainment Industry Pandemic Insurance

Link: https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2024/02/adele-vs-taylor-swift-covid-and-entertainment-industry-pandemic-insurance.html

Graphic:

Excerpt:

Making those timelines — 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024 — really brought home to me how long this pandemic has been going on; I lost track in the daily grind (though the daily grind is also my form of coping). And it’s a bit discouraging to see the most solidarity our society seems capable of fizzle out after 2020, followed by a struggle to return to business as usual, a struggle that failed by 2024, in that a once-essential part of touring — contact with the fans — has now gone missing.

We can, of course, moralize about what how these artists have gone about their business:

To be fair, though, when CDC Director Mandy Cohen is swanning about with no mask, modeling how to infect everybody she breathes on, what’s a poor celebrity to do? Restoring social norms that support non-pharmaceutical interventions will probably take a whole-of-society approach (which could happen when those Tiktokers start doing their research).

Here, however, are two small steps artists like Adele and Taylor Swift could do to improve the Covid pandemic situation.

First, big acts could really help out smaller acts by supporting organizations like this one: [Clean Air Club]

Second, sell N95s at your concerts and on your websites as branded merch. K-Pop powerhouse Twice already does this (though KN94s, not N95s):

And if, by some happy chance, some intern from either organization reads this post, please champion these ideas!

Oh, and champion clean air, too. Who could be against that? Miasma delenda est!

Author(s): Lambert Strether

Publication Date: 28 Feb 2024

Publication Site: naked capitalism

Few Nursing Facility Residents and Staff Have Received the Latest COVID-19 Vaccine

Link: https://www.kff.org/medicaid/issue-brief/few-nursing-facility-residents-and-staff-have-received-the-latest-covid-19-vaccine/

Graphic:

Excerpt:

Uptake of the current COVID-19 vaccine is higher in non-profit facilities than in for-profit or government facilities (Figure 2). The percentage of nursing facility residents who received the updated vaccine is 46% in non-profit facilities compared with 35% in for-profit facilities and 43% in government facilities. Uptake of the fall 2022 vaccine was also highest in non-profit facilities and lowest in for-profit facilities. Rates of vaccine uptake for nursing facility staff were low in all types of facilities with minimal variation across facility types (data not shown).

Author(s): Priya Chidambaram and Alice Burns

Publication Date: 13 Feb 2024

Publication Site: KFF, Medicaid

Lessons Learned During the Pandemic Can Help Improve Care in Nursing Homes

Link: https://oig.hhs.gov/documents/evaluation/9808/OEI-02-20-00492.pdf

Graphic:

Excerpt:

OIG recommends that the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS):

1. Implement and expand upon its policies and programs to strengthen the nursing home workforce.

2. Reassess nurse aide training and certification requirements.

3. Update the nursing home requirements for infection control to incorporate lessons learned from the pandemic.

4. Provide effective guidance and assistance to nursing homes on how to comply with updated infection control requirements.

5. Facilitate sharing of strategies and information to help nursing homes overcome challenges and improve care.

CMS did not explicitly state its concurrence or nonconcurrence for the five recommendations.

Author: Christi A. Grimm

Publication Date: February 2024

Publication Site: Office of the Inspector General, HHS

Eyes on the road: Automated speed cameras get a fresh look as traffic deaths mount

Link:https://www.npr.org/2024/02/16/1231362802/automated-speed-cameras-traffic-fatalities

Excerpt:

Richmond joins a growing list of cities turning to speed cameras. New laws in California and Pennsylvania will allow them in major cities where they’ve long been blocked.

Traffic fatalities have risen sharply over the past decade, and safety advocates around the country are desperately searching for anything that will get drivers to slow down. But critics say speed cameras can be a financial burden on those who are least able to pay.

Still, they’ve earned the endorsement of prominent safety advocates, including Jonathan Adkins, the CEO of the Governors Highway Safety Association.

“Automated enforcement works,” Adkins said. “For lack of a better term, it sucks to get a ticket. It changes your behavior.”

….

No one likes getting a speeding ticket. But the objections to automated traffic enforcement go deeper than that.

“We are very skeptical that safety is the real goal,” says Jay Beeber, with the National Motorists Association, a driver advocacy group.

There are other ways to get drivers to slow down, Beeber argues, including speed feedback signs that show drivers how fast they’re going in real time.

Author(s): Joel Rose

Publication Date: 16 Feb 2024

Publication Site: NPR, All Things Considered

Insurance Fraud on the March

Link: https://www.insurancejournal.com/blogs/right-street/2024/02/12/760360.htm

Graphic:

Excerpt:

Some of the most chilling examples of insurance fraud are grisly affairs revealing the darkest of humanity’s dark side:

  • John Gilbert Graham placed a time-release bomb on a plane in which his mother was traveling, for the life insurance payment. The bomb exploded. In addition to Graham’s mother all 43 other passengers and crew perished.
  • Utah physician Farid Fata administered chemotherapy to hundreds of women who did not have cancer. Fata submitted $34 million in fraudulent claims to Medicare and private insurance companies.
  • Ali Elmezayen staged a freak car accident which took the lives of his two autistic children and nearly drowned his wife. He collected a $260,000 insurance payout, but his crime was discovered. He was sentenced to 212 years in prison.
  • A Chicago federal grand jury charged 23 defendants with participating in a fraud scheme swindling $26 million from ten life insurers. The scheme featured submission of fraudulent applications to obtain policies, and misrepresenting the identity of the deceased.

There are thousands of other equally horrific insurance fraud stories. The annual Dirty Dozen Hall of Shame report describes some of the most egregious, and contributes to an understanding of how far fraudsters will go to cheat insurance companies.

….

Improvements in predictive modeling and the introduction of artificial intelligence (AI) have strengthened insurers abilities to identify, and ultimately investigate, submitted claims that may be fraudulent. At the same time, however, AI is also being used as a weapon to penetrate insurers’ fraud detection systems. Techniques being used include AI-created fake photographs of cars of a particular make and model showing damage that is not real, but used to extract a claims payment. Some insurers are no longer accepting photos because they may be doctored, and are returning to adjustors physically visiting the allegedly damaged car. A nefarious life insurance scam includes AI-enabled manipulation of ones voice so that a criminal third party gets past insurers’ voice recognition technology, and initiates a policy being surrendered to a non-policyholder, non-beneficiary. It seems that for every additional layer of protection insurers introduce, the criminals are keeping up, if not forging ahead.

Author(s): Jerry Theodorou, R Street

Publication Date: 12 Feb 2024

Publication Site: Insurance Journal

Regulatory Capital Adequacy for Life Insurance Companies

Link: https://www.soa.org/4a194f/globalassets/assets/files/resources/research-report/2023/erm-191-reg-capital-with-final-visuals.pdf

Graphic:

Excerpt:

The purpose of this paper is to introduce the concept of capital and key related terms, as well as to compare and contrast four key regulatory capital regimes. Not only is each regime’s methodology explained with key terms defined and formulas provided, but illustrative applications of each approach are provided via an example with a baseline scenario. Comparison among these capital regimes is also provided using this same model with two alternative scenarios.

The four regulatory required capital approaches discussed in this paper are National Association of Insurance Commissioners’ (NAIC) Risk-Based Capital (RBC; the United States), Life Insurer Capital Adequacy Test (LICAT; Canada), Solvency II (European Union), and the Bermuda Insurance Solvency (BIS) Framework which describes the Bermuda Solvency Capital Requirement (BSCR). These terms may be used interchangeably. These standards apply to a large portion of the global life insurance market and were chosen to give the reader a better understanding of how required capital varies by jurisdiction, and the impact of the measurement method on life insurance company capital.

All of these approaches are similar in that they identify key risks for which capital should be held (e.g., asset default and market risks, insurance risks, etc.). However, they differ in significant ways too, including their defined risk taxonomy and risk diversification / aggregation methodologies, as well as required minimum capital thresholds and corresponding implications. Another key difference is that the US’s RBC methodology is largely factor-based, while the other methodologies are model-based approaches. For the model-based approaches, Solvency II and BIS allow for the use of internal models when certain conditions are satisfied. Another difference is that the RBC methodology is largely derived using book values, while the others use economic-based measurements.

As mentioned above, this paper provides a model that calculates the capital requirements for each jurisdiction. The model is used to compare regulatory solvency capital using identical portfolios for both assets and liabilities. For simplicity, we have assumed that all liabilities originated in the same jurisdiction as the calculation. As the objective of the model is to illustrate required capital calculation methodology differences, a number of modeling simplifications were employed and detailed later in the paper. The model considers two products – term insurance and payout annuities, approximately equally weighted in terms of reserves. The assets consist of two non-callable bonds of differing durations, mortgages, real estate, and equities. Two alternative scenarios have been considered, one where the company invests in riskier assets than assumed in the base case and one where the liability mix is more heavily weighted to annuities as compared to the base case.

Author(s): Ben Leiser, FSA, MAAA; Janine Bender, ASA, MAAA; Brian Kaul

Publication Date: July 2023

Publication Site: Society of Actuaries

Climate risk vs. interest-rate risk

Link: https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2024-01-18/coinbase-trades-beanie-babies

Excerpt:

An important meta-story that you could tell about financial markets over the past few years would be that, for a long time, interest rates were roughly zero, which means that discount rates were low: A dollar in the distant future was worth about as much as a dollar today. Therefore, investors ascribed a lot of value to very long-term stuff, and were not particularly concerned about short-term profitability. Low discount rates made speculative distant-future profits worth more and steady current profits worth less.

And then interest rates went up rapidly starting in 2022, and everyone’s priorities shifted. A dollar today is now worth a lot more than a dollar in 10 years. People prioritize profits today over speculation in the future.

This is a popular story to tell about the boom in, for instance, tech startups, or crypto: “Startups are a low-interest-rate phenomenon.” In 2020, people had a lot of money and a lot of patience, so they were willing to invest in speculative possibly-world-changing ideas that would take a long time to pay out. (Or to fund startups that lost money on every transaction in the long-term pursuit of market share.) In 2022, the Fed raised rates, people’s preferences changed, and the startup and crypto bubbles popped. 

I suppose, though, that you could tell a similar story about environmental investing? Climate change is, plausibly, a very large and very long-term threat to a lot of businesses. If you just go around doing everything normally this year, probably rising oceans won’t wash away your factories this year. But maybe they will in 2040. Maybe you should invest today in making your factories ocean-proof, or in cutting carbon emissions so the oceans don’t rise: That will cost you some money today, but will save you some money in 2040. Is it worth it? Well, depends on the discount rate. If rates are low, you will care more about 2040. If rates are high, you will care more about saving money today.

We have talked a few times about the argument that some kinds of environmental investing — the kind where you avoid investing in “dirty” companies, to starve them of capital and reduce the amount of dirty stuff they do — can be counterproductive, because it has the effect of raising those companies’ discount rates and thus making them even more short-term-focused. And being short-term-focused probably leads to more carbon emissions. (If you make it harder for coal companies to raise capital, maybe nobody will start a coal company, but existing coal companies will dig up more coal faster.)

But that argument applies more broadly. If you raise every company’s discount rate (because interest rates go up), then every company should be more short-term-focused. Every company should care a bit less about global temperatures in 2040, and a bit more about maximizing profits now. Maybe ESG was itself a low-interest-rates phenomenon.

Anyway here’s a Financial Times story about BlackRock Inc.:

BlackRock will stress “financial resilience” in its talks with companies this year as the $10tn asset manager puts less emphasis on climate concerns amid a political backlash to environmental, social and governance investing.

With artificial intelligence and high interest rates rattling companies globally, BlackRock wants to know how they are managing these risks to ensure they deliver long-term financial returns, the asset manager said on Thursday as it detailed its engagement priorities for 2024.

BlackRock reviews these priorities annually as it talks with thousands of companies before their annual meetings on issues ranging from how much their executives are paid to how effective their board directors are.

“The macroeconomic and geopolitical backdrop companies are operating in has changed. This new economic regime is shaped by powerful structural forces that we believe may drive divergent performance across economies, sectors and companies,” BlackRock said in its annual report on its engagement priorities. “We are particularly interested in learning from investee companies about how they are adapting to strengthen their financial resilience.”

There is a lot going on here, and it is reasonable to wonder— as the FT does — whether BlackRock’s shift from environmental concerns to high interest rates is about the political and marketing backlash to ESG. But you could take it on its own terms! In 2020, interest rates were zero, and BlackRock’s focus was on the long term. What was the biggest long-term risk to its portfolio? Arguably, climate change. So it went around talking to companies about climate change. In 2024, interest rates are high, and the short term matters more, so BlackRock is going around talking to companies about interest-rate risk.

I don’t know how AI fits into this model. For most of my life, “ooh artificial intelligence will change everything” has been a pretty long-term — like, science-fiction long-term — thing to think about. But I suppose now “how will you integrate large-language-model chatbots into your workflows” is an immediate question.

Author(s): Matt Levine

Publication Date: 18 Jan 2024

Publication Site: Bloomberg

The insurance industry’s renewed focus on disparate impacts and unfair discrimination

Link: https://www.milliman.com/en/insight/the-insurance-industrys-renewed-focus-on-disparate-impacts-and-unfair-discrimination

Excerpt:

As consumers, regulators, and stakeholders demand more transparency and accountability with respect to how insurers’ business practices contribute to potential systemic societal inequities, insurers will need to adapt. One way insurers can do this is by conducting disparate impact analyses and establishing robust systems for monitoring and minimizing disparate impacts. There are several reasons why this is beneficial:

  1. Disparate impact analyses focus on identifying unintentional discrimination resulting in disproportionate impacts on protected classes. This potentially creates a higher standard than evaluating unfairly discriminatory practices depending on one’s interpretation of what constitutes unfair discrimination. Practices that do not result in disparate impacts are likely by default to also not be unfairly discriminatory (assuming that there are also no intentionally discriminatory practices in place and that all unfairly discriminatory variables codified by state statutes are evaluated in the disparate impact analysis).
  2. Disparate impact analyses that align with company values and mission statements reaffirm commitments to ensuring equity in the insurance industry. This provides goodwill to consumers and provides value to stakeholders.
  3. Disparate impact analyses can prevent or mitigate future legal issues. By proactively monitoring and minimizing disparate impacts, companies can reduce the likelihood of allegations of discrimination against a protected class and corresponding litigation.
  4. If writing business in Colorado, then establishing a framework for assessing and monitoring disparate impacts now will allow for a smooth transition once the Colorado bill goes into effect. If disparate impacts are identified, insurers have time to implement corrections before the bill is effective.

Author(s): Eric P. Krafcheck

Publication Date: 27 Sept 2021

Publication Site: Milliman

SBF Was Reckless From the Start

Link: https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2023-10-04/sbf-was-reckless-from-the-start?srnd=undefined#xj4y7vzkg

Excerpt:

First: “A Jane Street intern had what amounted to a professional obligation to take any bet with a positive expected value”? Really? I feel like, if you are a trading intern, you are really there to learn two things. One is, sure, take bets with positive expected value and avoid bets with negative expected value.

But the other is about bet sizing. As a Jane Street intern, you have $100 to bet each day, and your quasi-job is to turn that into as much money as possible. Is betting all of it (or even $98) on a single bet with a 1% edge really optimal?[6] 

People have thought about this question! Like, this is very much a central thing that traders and trading firms worry about. The standard starting point is the Kelly criterion, which computes a maximum bet size based on your edge and the size of your bankroll. Given the intern’s bankroll of $100, I think Kelly would tell you to put at most $10 on this bet, depending on what exactly you mean by “this bet.”[7] Betting $98 is too much.

I am being imprecise, and for various reasons you might not expect the interns to stick to Kelly in this situation. But when I read about interns lining up to lose their entire bankroll on bets with 1% edge, I think, “huh, that’s aggressive, what are they teaching those interns?” (I suppose the $100 daily loss limit is the real lesson about position sizing: The interns who wipe out today get to come back and play again tomorrow.) 

But I also think about a Twitter argument that Bankman-Fried had with Matt Hollerbach in 2020, in which Bankman-Fried scoffed at the Kelly criterion and said that “I, personally, would do more” than the Kelly amount. “Why? Because ultimately my utility function isn’t really logarithmic. It’s closer to linear.” As he tells Lewis, “he had use for ‘infinity dollars’” — he was going to become a trillionaire and use the money to cure disease and align AI and defeat Trump, sure — so he always wanted to maximize returns.

But as Hollerbach pointed out, this misunderstands why trading firms use the Kelly criterion.[8] Jane Street does not go around taking any bet with a positive expected value. The point of Kelly is not about utility curves; it’s not “having $200 is less than twice as pleasant as having $100, so you should be less willing to take big risks for big rewards.” The point of Kelly is about maximizing your chances of surviving and obtaining long-run returns: It’s “if you bet 50% of your bankroll on 1%-edge bets, you’ll be more likely to win each bet than lose it, but if you keep doing that you will probably lose all your money eventually.” Kelly is about sizing your bets so you can keep playing the game and make the most money possible in the long run. Betting more can make you more money in the short run, but if you keep doing it you will end in ruin.

Author(s): Matt Levine

Publication Date: 4 Oct 2023

Publication Site: Bloomberg