Category: Public Finance

Social Security’s 2024 COLA, While Modest, Could Still Trigger Higher Taxes

Mary Pat Campbell

Link: https://www.thinkadvisor.com/2023/10/13/social-securitys-2024-cola-while-modest-could-still-trigger-higher-taxes/

Excerpt:

And, as Mary Johnson, the league’s Social Security and Medicare policy analyst, highlighted in a call with ThinkAdvisor, there is also widespread concern about what the relatively modest 2024 COLA could mean for the taxes seniors pay on their federal government benefits.

As many as 26% of survey participants who have received Social Security for more than three years reported paying taxes on a portion of their benefits for the first time during the 2023 tax season — i.e., for tax year 2022.

“Because Social Security recipients received an even higher COLA of 8.7% in 2023, we expect more beneficiaries to become liable for federal income taxes on their Social Security benefits for the first time in the upcoming 2024 tax season,” Johnson warned.

….

“Up to 85% of Social Security benefits can be taxable when income exceeds certain thresholds,” Johnson explains. “Unlike other parts of the federal income tax code, though, the income thresholds that subject Social Security benefits to taxation have never been adjusted for inflation.”

Author(s): John Manganaro

Publication Date: 13 Oct 2023

Publication Site: Think Advisor

Medicaid Enrollment and Unwinding Tracker – 11 Oct 2023

Mary Pat Campbell

Link: https://www.kff.org/medicaid/issue-brief/medicaid-enrollment-and-unwinding-tracker/

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Excerpt:

There is wide variation in disenrollment rates across reporting states, ranging from 66% in Texas to 11% in Illinois. Differences in who states are targeting with early renewals as well as differences in renewal policies and system capacity likely explain some of the variation in disenrollment rates. Some states (such as Texas and South Carolina) are initially targeting people early in the unwinding period that they think are no longer eligible or who did not respond to renewal requests during the pandemic, but other states are conducting renewals based on an individual’s renewal date. Additionally, some states have adopted several policies that promote continued coverage among those who remain eligible and have automated eligibility systems that can more easily and accurately process renewals while other states have adopted fewer of these policies and have more manually-driven systems.

Publication Date: last updated 11 Oct 2023

Publication Site: Kaiser Family Foundation

The Debt Crisis Is Getting Real

Mary Pat Campbell

Link: https://reason.com/2023/10/04/the-debt-crisis-is-getting-real/

Excerpt:

When Yglesias wrote that column for Vox in 2016, the federal government owed about $19 trillion. Today, it owes more than $33 trillion, and we just added another $2 trillion in a fiscal year with no major national emergencies.

In short, the federal government followed Yglesias’ advice. But it might be more accurate to say it went along with what was clearly a bipartisan consensus formed in the mid-2010s: that borrowing was cheap, debt was easy to afford, and deficit spending allowed everyone to enjoy “a better life” with none of the downsides of austerity.

Unfortunately, the downsides have arrived.

The yields on U.S. Treasury bonds are now hitting levels not seen in decades. The 10-year Treasury bond is nearing 5 percent, while the 20-year bond has already crossed that threshold—and some analysts expect higher yields to be coming, CNBC reported Tuesday.

Why does that matter? “We took out a mortgage thinking we’d be paying 2%, but now we’re paying 5%,” Marc Goldwein, director of policy at the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget (CRFB) wrote on X (formerly known as Twitter) on Tuesday.

Unlike most mortgages, which have fixed interest rates, much of the U.S. government’s debt is tied up in short-term bonds which periodically “roll over” into new bonds with updated interest rates. As a result, higher interest rates mean higher interest payments—and those funds come directly out of the federal budget, leaving less revenue for everything else the government might aspire to do, whether funding welfare programs or buying more fighter jets.

“That debt, borrowed at low rates, is now being rolled over into Treasuries paying interest rates between 4.5 and 5.6 percent,” the CRFB explained last month. “Though borrowing seemed cheap during those periods, policymakers failed to account for rollover risk, and we are now facing the cost.”

Interest payments on the debt will be the fastest-growing part of the federal budget over the next three decades, according to the Congressional Budget Office’s (CBO) projections. In the shorter term, interest payments are set to triple by 2033, when they will cost an estimated $1.4 trillion—a total that will only grow higher if more unplanned borrowing takes place before then, or if interest rates rise higher than the CBO expects.

Author(s): Eric Boehm

Publication Date: 4 Oct 2023

Publication Site: Reason

A Huge Threat to the U.S. Budget Has Receded. And No One Is Sure Why

Mary Pat Campbell

Link: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2023/09/05/upshot/medicare-budget-threat-receded.html?smid=url-share

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Excerpt:

For decades, runaway Medicare spending was the story of the federal budget.

Now, flat Medicare spending might be a bigger one.

Something strange has been happening in this giant federal program. Instead of growing and growing, as it always had before, spending per Medicare beneficiary has nearly leveled off over more than a decade.

The trend can be a little hard to see because, as baby boomers have aged, the number of people using Medicare has grown. But it has had enormous consequences for federal spending. Budget news often sounds apocalyptic, but the Medicare trend has been unexpectedly good for federal spending, saving taxpayers a huge amount relative to projections.

….

Some of the reductions are easy to explain. Congress changed Medicare policy. The biggest such shift came with the Affordable Care Act in 2010, which reduced Medicare‘s payments to hospitals and to health insurers that offered private Medicare Advantage plans. Congress also cut Medicare payments as part of a budget deal in 2011.

But most of the savings can’t be attributed to any obvious policy shift. In a recent letter to the Senate Budget Committee, economists at the Congressional Budget Office described the huge reductions in its Medicare forecasts between 2010 and 2020. Most of those reductions came from a category the budget office calls “technical adjustments,” which it uses to describe changes to public health and the practice of medicine itself.

Older Americans appear to be having fewer heart attacks and strokes, the likely result of effective cholesterol and blood pressure medicines that became cheap and widely used in recent years, according to research from Professor Cutler and colleagues. And drug makers and surgeons haven’t developed as many new blockbuster treatments recently — there has been no new Prozac or angioplasty to drive up spending. (Medicare is currently barred by statute from covering the new class of expensive anti-obesity drugs.)

….

Medicare may even wind up saving money because of Covid-19 — because the older Americans who died from the disease tended to have other illnesses that would have been expensive to treat if they had survived, according to an analysis from the Medicare actuary.

Author(s): Sanger-Katz, Margot; Parlapiano, Alicia

Publication Date: 5 Sept 2023

Publication Site: NY Times

No Hope In Sight For Chicago’s Worst-In-The-Nation Pension Plans

Mary Pat Campbell

Link:https://www.forbes.com/sites/ebauer/2023/08/01/no-hope-in-sight-for-chicagos-worst-in-the-nation-pension-plans/?sh=4fd6218f24c2

Excerpt:

Back on July 18, the Equable Institute released the 2023 version of its annual State of Pensions report, which means that, yes, it’s time for another check-in on these infamously-poorly-funded pension plans. Among the wealth of tables is a list of the best and worst-funded of the 58 local pension plans studied, and, yes, you guessed it, the bottom five spots are Chicago plans, with the bottom three at levels far below all others:

  • Municipal employees, 21% funded,
  • Chicago police, 21.8% funded, and
  • Chicago fire, 18.8% funded.

Combined with the Chicago Laborers’ pension fund, with a 41% funded status, the pensions for which the city bears a direct responsibility have a total pension debt on a market value of assets basis of $35 billion. (This data is from the actual reports*, released in May, which doesn’t match the Equable report precisely.) Spot fifth-worst is taken up by the Chicago Teachers, at 42.4% funded, and the first non-Chicago system in their list, Dallas Police & Fire at 45.2%, is twice as well funded, percentage-point-wise, as the Terrible Trio.

…..

What’s more, Ralph Martire and his Center for Tax and Budget Accountability continue to promote what he calls “reamortization” as a solution to the problem, both through an April Chicago Sun Times commentary and through the release of a report, “Understanding – and Resolving Illinois’ Pension Funding Challenges” (which is an update of a prior proposal). This proposal, which is directed at Illinois pensions but is clearly meant based on other comments to be an all-purpose fix, sounds innocuous, as merely a sort of “refinancing” as one might with a mortgage, but it’s really much more as he proposes to

  • Reduce the funded status target from 90% to 80%, based on the claim that the GAO deems this funded status to be the right target for a “healthy” plan (whether he deliberately misleads or not, he is wrong here, the National Association of State Retirement Administrators or NASRA clearly explained more than a decade ago that 100% funding is always the right target and the only significance of an 80% level is that private sector pension law requires plans funded less than 80% to take immediate corrective action rather than have a long-term funding schedule, and the American Academy of Actuaries more explicitly calls this a “myth”);
  • Issue large sums of Pension Obligation Bonds, which were questionable already when they first began promoting this but are now a terrible idea with our current high bond rates, all the more so for a low-credit-rating city such as Chicago; and
  • Move contributions from last day of the fiscal year to the first day, which he argues would be a gain of a year’s investment return while forgetting that it requires the city to have this money on Day 1 and forgo the other uses it would have.

Author(s): Elizabeth Bauer

Publication Date: 1 Aug 2023

Publication Site: Forbes

Chicago Confronts $35B Pension Crisis, Among Nation’s Worst

Mary Pat Campbell

Link: https://www.governing.com/finance/chicago-confronts-35b-pension-crisis-among-nations-worst?utm_campaign=Newsletter%20-%20GOV%20-%20Daily&utm_medium=email&_hsmi=266392609&_hsenc=p2ANqtz-908JiZoECoiHOSFWeUAutUv8VbdD2wEgfZjFzCrsEv6iI9JACAt9QL1zdrKBCqmO35ZPGv3sCgZURy904H11nrX4AQ5RWJg5Ti63o3xBq99exXZg0&utm_content=266392609&utm_source=hs_email

Excerpt:

One of Brandon Johnson’s first moves as Chicago mayor was to buy himself time to address the city’s biggest financial problem: the more than $35 billion owed to its pension funds.

Just days after his May inauguration, Johnson persuaded state lawmakers to shelve legislation that would’ve added billions to the pension debt, while pledging to establish a working group to come up with solutions by October.

Now, the clock is ticking for the progressive Democrat to fix the worst pension crisis among major U.S. cities.

Just as Chicago reels from a spate of shootings and carjackings, inequities exacerbated by the pandemic and high-profile corporate departures, its pension gap creates a financial burden that threatens its recovery and the mayor’s agenda.

The situation makes for a cautionary tale for municipalities across the country facing long-neglected contributions and funding shortfalls. Already, the third-largest U.S. city spends roughly $1 of every $5 on pensions, while more than 80 percent of property-tax dollars go toward retirement payouts.

….

In 2022, for the first time, the city put in an actuarially calculated contribution for all four pensions funds – a step that helped it shed the junk rating.

Author(s): Shruti Date Singh, Bloomberg News, TNS

Publication Date: 14 July 2023

Publication Site: Governing

Protecting Social Security for All: Making the Wealthy Pay Their Fair Share Testimony by Stephen C. Goss, Chief Actuary, Social Security Administration United States Senate Committee on the Budget

Mary Pat Campbell

Link:https://www.budget.senate.gov/imo/media/doc/Mr.%20Stephen%20C.%20Goss%20-%20Testimony%20-%20Senate%20Budget%20Committee.pdf

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Excerpt:

First, the 1983 Amendments were an interim solution to the well-understood changing of the age distribution due to the drop in birth rate after 1965. These Amendments were expected to extend the ability to pay scheduled benefits from 1982 to the mid-2050s, with the clear understanding that further changes would be needed by then.

Second, the redistribution of earned income to the highest earners was not anticipated in 1983. This shift resulted in about 8 percent less payroll tax revenue by 2000 than had been expected, with this reduced level continuing thereafter. The severity of the 2007-09 recession was also not anticipated.

Third, with the passage of 40 years since 1983, we clearly see the shortcomings of the 1983 Amendments in achieving “sustainable solvency” for Social Security. We are now in a position to formulate further changes needed, building on the start made in 1983.

Fourth, the long-known and understood shift in the age distribution of the US population will continue to increase the aged dependency ratio until about 2040, and in turn increase the cost of the OASDI program as a percentage of taxable payroll and GDP. Once this shift, which reflects the drop in the birth rate after 1965, is complete, the cost of the program will be relatively stable at around 6 percent of GDP. The unfunded obligation for the OASDI program over the next 75 years represents 1.2 percent of GDP over the period as a whole.

Author(s): Stephen C. Goss, Chief Actuary, Social Security Administration

Publication Date: 12 July 2023

Publication Site: Senate Budget Committee

Detroit police, fire pensioners push back on bankruptcy ruling to extend payments

Mary Pat Campbell

Link:https://www.detroitnews.com/story/news/local/detroit-city/2023/07/11/detroit-police-fire-pensioners-push-back-on-ruling-to-extend-payments/70401452007/

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Excerpt:

The Police and Fire Retirement System of Detroit filed on Monday a motion for reconsideration, pushing back on a federal bankruptcy judge’s ruling in favor of the Duggan administration’s plan to extend the city’s pension payment obligations over 30 years rather than 20 years.

The city’s police and fire retirees are continuing litigation that has been ongoing since August when the city administration initially filed suit against the pension system to enforce a 30-year pay-out schedule. On June 26, Judge Thomas Tucker ruled in the city’s favor, stating that a 30-year amortization period is “indeed part of the (bankruptcy) Plan of Adjustment and that the Police Fire Retirement System cannot change it.”

The new motion seeks clarification of the court’s possible imposition of a 6.75% rate of return that was specifically set to expire after 10 years under the Plan of Adjustment, the bankruptcy exit plan. After June 30, the pension fund’s rate of return and its amortization funding policy are within the purview of the Police and Fire Retirement System’s Board of Trustees and Investment Committee, according to the pensioners’ filing.

At the 30-year determined rate, the city will complete its debt obligations in 2054. Police and fire retirees want their pension fund to be made whole sooner.

Author(s): Sarah Rahal

Publication Date: 11 July 2023

Publication Site: The Detroit News

First We Get the Money…:$12 Billion to Fund a Just Chicago

Mary Pat Campbell

Link: https://www.scribd.com/document/645874607/First-We-Get-the-Money-FINAL-v3#

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Excerpt:

Reinstitute the big business head tax: Mayor Johnson should reinstitute the big business head tax to make large corporations pay what they owe for benefiting from the city’s public infrastructure. The head tax existed previously in Chicago, until Mayor Rahm Emanuel eliminated it as a handout to corporations.3 Reinstating the head tax at a level of $33 per employee per year would generate $106 million a year in new revenue.4

….

Institute a city income tax on high earners: Mayor Johnson should lobby Springfield to give the city the authority to institute a municipal income tax on high earners who live or work in the city. A 3.5% tax on household income above $100,000 would bring in an estimated $2.1 billion a year in new revenue, of which $1.6 billion would be from high-earning Chicagoans and $490 million from high-earning commuters.16 By way of comparison, New York and Philadelphia both have municipal income taxes with top rates above 3.7%.17 By exempting the first $100,000 of income from the tax, the city could ensure the tax is progressive without a change in the state constitution.

  Institute a luxury apartment vacancy fee: Mayor Johnson should work withstate officials to implement a vacancy fee on large, luxury apartment buildings with units that sit vacant for more than 12 months at a time. Landlords who own more than 20 units and are asking for a monthly rental price that exceeds the 75th percentile in the city (based on the number of bedrooms) must pay a fee equal to the median rental price in the city on each unit that sits vacant for more than 12 consecutive months, if more than three units in the building sit vacant for more than 12 consecutive months. This would encourage luxury developers to charge more affordable rents that can maintain higher occupancy rates. This policy is designed to encourage landlords to lower rents to avoid having to pay the fee; thus, if it works as intended, we hope that it would eventually not produce any revenue for the city but that it would increase affordable housing options.

Author(s): Saqib Bhatti, Gabriela Noa Betancourt

Publication Date: May 2023

Publication Site: Scribd

Understanding the State and Local Tax Deduction (SALT)

Mary Pat Campbell

Link: https://www.cato.org/blog/understanding-salt

Excerpt:


The SALT deduction is still distorting tax policy even in its limited form. For example, the poorly conceived temporary $4,000 bonus deduction proposed in the Tax Cuts for Working Families Act, part of the Republican economic tax package, is the result of SALT politics. The proposal attempts to give additional tax relief to taxpayers concerned by the SALT cap.

As initially proposed by House Republicans in the lead‐​up to 2017, the correct policy is to repeal the SALT deduction entirely. The $10,000 cap was a political compromise necessary to get enough votes for the bill. Raising or lifting the cap significantly reduces revenue, making it harder to extend or expand the tax cuts when they expire at the end of 2025.

Author(s): Adam N. Michel

Publication Date: 22 Jun 2023

Publication Site: Cato

Adverse Effects of Automatic Cost‐​of‐​Living Adjustments to Entitlement and Other Payments

Mary Pat Campbell

Link: https://www.cato.org/policy-analysis/adverse-effects-automatic-cost-living-adjustments-entitlement-other-payments

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Excerpt:

COLAs for Social Security’s OASDI have had an additional significant fiscal effect. Until recently, the payroll taxes paid for Social Security each year have usually exceeded the cost of benefits paid in that year. This balance was transferred to the general fund of the U.S. Treasury, which in turn issued special Treasury bonds to the Social Security Trust Fund to be redeemed later when taxes collected were less than the benefits paid. The fund balance reached $2.9 trillion at the end of 2020. Then in 2021, the Social Security Trust Fund had to redeem $56.3 billion of those bonds to pay OASDI benefits. Social Security actuaries have calculated that increasingly larger withdrawals will continue until the Trust Fund is fully depleted in early 2035.36 Under current law, once the Trust Fund balance is fully depleted, payments to beneficiaries must be reduced to the level supported by current Social Security taxes.

If Social Security COLAs had been calculated using the combination of C‑CPI‑U and PCEPI, then the Trust Fund balance in 2020 would have been $3.5 trillion, and full depletion of the Trust Fund would have been delayed two more years to 2037. If the price indexes had also been improved to minimize new‐​item bias (the best‐​practices index), the balance in 2020 would have been $4.4 trillion, and full depletion of the fund would have been delayed until 2039 (see Figure 1).

Author(s): John F. Early

Publication Date: 22 Jun 2023

Publication Site: Cato

MBTA retirement fund is headed for a financial reckoning

Mary Pat Campbell

Link: https://www.bostonglobe.com/2023/06/19/opinion/mbta-retirement-fund-finances/

Excerpt:

The MBTA Retirement Fund is going over a cliff, and the reasons why are well known. But neither the T nor its unions are in a hurry to do anything about it.

The new MBTA Retirement Fund Actuarial Valuation Report shows the fund’s balance as of Dec. 31, 2022, was $1.62 billion — about $300 million less than what it was just 12 months earlier. Its liability — the amount it will owe current and future T retirees — is over $3.1 billion, meaning the fund is about 51 percent funded. In 2006, it was 94 percent funded. A “death spiral” generally accelerates when retirement system funding dips below 50 percent.

In April, the Pioneer Public Interest Law Center got the MBTA to hand over an August 2022 arbitration decision regarding a pension dispute between the T and its biggest union. It contained a critical win for the authority: Arbitrator Elizabeth Neumeier decided that most employees would have to work until age 65 to earn a full pension, saving the MBTA at least $12 million annually.

But the Carmen’s Union sued to invalidate that portion of the decision, and the parties returned to the bargaining table. The new pension agreement they hammered out doesn’t include the historic retirement age victory; T management negotiated it away.

….

As of Dec. 31, 2022, 5,555 active employees paid into the fund, but 6,783 retirees collected from it. The biggest reason for the mismatch is the age at which T employees retire. Those hired before December 2012 can retire with a full pension after 23 years of service, regardless of age. Those hired after December 2012 can retire with a full pension at age 55 after 25 years.

The arbitrator finally gave the MBTA the win it so desperately needed, and T management promptly gave it back. Many MBTA managers have long opposed changing the age at which employees can earn a full pension, fearing the reaction of T unions.

….

Hard as it may be to believe, the T retirement fund’s financial outlook is even worse than it appears. Financial projections assume the fund’s assets will earn 7.25 percent annually. Over time, actual returns have been more like 4 percent to 7 percent.

These misleading projections are based on other faulty assumptions. In her 2022 decision, Neumeier refused the MBTA’s request to use newer actuarial tables, ruling that changing would be costly and that there was no compelling reason to update the tables. The ones in place are from 1989 — so old that they assume all T employees are men. Since women tend to live longer, the tables materially understate the retirement fund liability.

Author(s): Mark T. Williams, Charles Chieppo 

Publication Date: 19 Jun 2023

Publication Site: Boston Globe