Category: Public Finance

Comptroller Mendoza claims Illinois paying its bills but needs more federal bailout to avoid a big one – Wirepoints Quickpoint

Mary Pat Campbell

Link: https://wirepoints.org/comptroller-mendoza-claims-illinois-paying-its-bills-but-needs-more-federal-bailout-to-avoid-a-big-one-wirepoints-quickpoint/

Excerpt:

As for Mendoza’s claim that Illinois is paying its bill, that’s simply not true. The state entirely ignored the hole in its unemployment fund in its current budget and future budget forecasts. In reality, the state will not just have to repay the loan but must also restore the fund to a sound balance, which will probably take another $1.5 billion at least, which was the balance before the pandemic. Nor does Illinois pay its full bill for the 800-pound gorilla, pensions. Year after year it contributes far less to its pension funds than actuaries say is required to prevent unfunded liabilities from growing.

Mendoza supported her claim that Illinois is paying its bills by saying, as she frequently does, that Illinois shrunk its bill backlog by about 80% since its historic high of $16.7 billion during the 2015-2017 budget impasse.

Author(s): Mark Glennon

Publication Date: 3 Jan 2022

Publication Site: Wirepoints

SFA Update – Revisions

Mary Pat Campbell

Link: https://burypensions.wordpress.com/2022/01/14/sfa-update-revisions/

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The PBGC Special Financial Assistance program for troubled multiemployer plans is updating again this weekend. No new applicants but the PBGC summary worksheets did have two plans withdrawing and reapplying which made me wonder if these revisions were looking for more or less money.

Author(s): John Bury

Publication Date: 14 Jan 2022

Publication Site: Burypensions

Illinois reaches funding milestone with its second-largest pension fund

Mary Pat Campbell

Link:https://capitolfax.com/2022/01/13/illinois-reaches-funding-milestone-with-its-second-largest-pension-fund/

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* The State Actuary issued a report on December 22nd entitled “Actuarial Assumptions and Valuations of the State-Funded Retirement Systems.” Yeah, I didn’t read it, either.

But one of my very smart readers did go through it and reached out to me yesterday…

Hi Rich,

Long time follower, first time writer. In full disclosure, I recently retired from the [redacted] after more than [redacted] years. I just read the COGFA article today and was encouraged about the State’s finances yet again.

Another report that came out in late December that received no coverage was the State Actuary Report (see link below). The unheralded news in this report was that there were several State pension systems that passed the “Tread Water” point in FY21; meaning we are now paying in more than we owe and reducing the liability for those systems.

Author(s): Rich Miller

Publication Date: 13 Jan 2022

Publication Site: Capitol Fax

Bonds are the key to reining in runaway municipal pension plans

Mary Pat Campbell

Link: https://thehill.com/opinion/finance/588537-bonds-are-the-key-to-reining-in-runaway-municipal-pension-plans?rl=1

Excerpt:

In what is the product of the sustained low-rate environment, many municipalities are considering addressing their pension position through bonds. This should be encouraged by policymakers and explored by pension systems.  

Bond markets are offering municipalities the opportunity to exchange discount rates of 6, 7 and sometimes even 8 percent for bonds with yields below 3 percent. The spread between the discount rate and the bond yield is the root of the appeal of pension obligation bonds. 

Author(s): Eric J. Mason

Publication Date: 6 Jan 2022

Publication Site: The Hill

Lightfoot messages indicate how flippantly state government stuck Chicago with higher pension cost – Wirepoints Quickpoint

Mary Pat Campbell

Link: https://wirepoints.org/lightfoot-messages-indicate-how-flippantly-state-government-stuck-chicago-with-higher-pension-cost-wirepoints-quicktake/

Excerpt:

You may recall earlier this year when the General Assembly passed a bill that Gov. JB Pritzker signed to increase certain pension benefits for Chicago firefighters. The new law is expected to cost Chicago some $850 million and could drop the funded status from what was an already abysmal 18% down to an even-worse 16%.

Well, it appears that Illinois Senate leadership didn’t even bother to talk to Chicago Mayor Lori Lightfoot before mandating that additional burden.

The Chicago Tribune has released Lightfoot email and text messages it obtained on a number of matters. One went from Lightfoot to Senate President Don Harmon. “A courtesy call regarding the fire pension bill would have been helpful, particularly since there is no funding for it,” Lightfoot said. “When that pension fund collapses, I will be talking a lot about this vote.”

Author(s): Mark Glennon

Publication Date: 31 Dec 2021

Publication Site: Wirepoints

Comptroller Mendoza claims Illinois paying its bills but needs more federal bailout to avoid a big one – Wirepoints Quickpoint

Mary Pat Campbell

Link: https://wirepoints.org/comptroller-mendoza-claims-illinois-paying-its-bills-but-needs-more-federal-bailout-to-avoid-a-big-one-wirepoints-quickpoint/

Excerpt:

Most states have either repaid what they borrowed for their unemployment funds or never borrowed in the first place. Illinois is one of ten states with loans still outstanding. The other states that joined Mendoza’s request to the Treasury are, like Illinois, heavily Democratic — New York, Colorado, Pennsylvania, Connecticut, New Jersey, Massachusetts and Minnesota. A recent research report detailed how federal pandemic bailout money, in general, has gone disproportionately to Democratic states.

As for Mendoza’s claim that Illinois is paying its bill, that’s simply not true. The state entirely ignored the hole in its unemployment fund in its current budget and future budget forecasts. In reality, the state will not just have to repay the loan but must also restore the fund to a sound balance, which will probably take another $1.5 billion at least, which was the balance before the pandemic. Nor does Illinois pay its full bill for the 800-pound gorilla, pensions. Year after year it contributes far less to its pension funds than actuaries say is required to prevent unfunded liabilities from growing.

Author(s): Mark Glennon

Publication Date: 3 Jan 2022

Publication Site: Wirepoints

In the Next 10 Years, Nearly All the Population Increase Will Be Age Group 65+

Mary Pat Campbell

Link: https://mishtalk.com/economics/in-the-next-10-years-nearly-all-the-population-increase-will-be-age-group-65

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The above stats from Census Bureau Projects U.S. and World Populations on New Year’s Day.

Looking ahead to the next decade the percentage of those 60 and over will rise from 23.29% to 25.93%. 

Meanwhile, the prime working age population age 20-59 declines from 52.06% to 50.75%.

And this is happening with public union pension plans severely stressed despite huge stock market gains. 

Author(s): Mike Shedlock

Publication Date: 3 Jan 2022

Publication Site: Mish Talk

Revisiting The ‘Retirement Crisis’ And Retirement Legislation In 2022 – What’s In Store In The New Year?

Mary Pat Campbell

Link: https://www.forbes.com/sites/ebauer/2021/12/31/revisiting-the-retirement-crisis-and-retirement-legislation-in-2022whats-in-store-in-the-new-year/

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First, we need to keep a distinction in mind between efforts to ensure the elderly do not suffer actual material deprivation, whether that’s lack of nutritious food or adequate housing or medical needs, for instance, and efforts to help Americans plan for retirement and alleviate their expressed worries about the unknowns of retirement.

Second, issues of well-being, such as social isolation, and larger questions of the “right” form of provision of long-term care assistance, are not simple issues of finances but are nonetheless important as Americans age, and these topics should not be drowned out by a “retirement crisis” narrative. It should also go without saying that we will urgently need to turn our attention to the Medicare system as well.

And, third, in one crucial respect our models may fail us: experts have worked out a set of recommendations for asset allocation and income spend-down in retirement, and a set of projections for building those models, which fall apart if our new low-interest world continues, Japan-like, rather than being a temporary situation that resolves itself as we recover from the pandemic. Whether this is a result of government policies or an inevitable consequence of the changing economy, this could upend both Biggs’ projections of retiree well-being and the path to retirement security envisioned by legislation like the SECURE Act 2.0.

Author(s): Elizabeth Bauer

Publication Date: 31 Dec 2021

Publication Site: Forbes

CT to borrow over $1.3 billion to fund a long list of state, local projects

Mary Pat Campbell

Link:https://ctmirror.org/2021/12/21/ct-to-borrow-over-1-3-billion-to-fund-a-long-list-of-state-local-projects/

Excerpt:

Gov. Ned Lamont helped to hand out more than $1.3 billion on Tuesday by voting to have the state borrow money to pay for various infrastructure projects, state grant programs, improvements at a mental health center in Bridgeport and a new train station in Enfield.

In total, the State Bond Commission, which Lamont leads, agreed to fund more than 50 different projects, programs and initiatives — some of which were championed by state lawmakers who are heading into a campaign season next year and are eager to bring home financial wins to their district.

….

The more than $1 billion in spending that was approved Tuesday will be financed through state revenue and general obligation bonds, which Connecticut officials market to Wall Street investors and will eventually need to repay with interest.

Connecticut frequently relies on that type of borrowing capacity to finance school construction efforts, capital projects at state universities, transportation upgrades, building maintenance projects, land preservation deals and the smaller community projects that often benefit state legislators. This week’s meeting marked the third bond commission gathering this year.

State legislators largely control the first step in the borrowing process by adopting a two-year bond package, but after that, the governor and the executive branch get to decide what gets funded and when.

Author(s): Andrew Brown

Publication Date: 21 Dec 2021

Publication Site: CT Mirror

I come to bury Build Back Better, and dance on its grave

Mary Pat Campbell

Link:https://marypatcampbell.substack.com/p/i-come-to-bury-build-back-better

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Productivity gains in consumer electronics have not been able to exceed the erosion of the currency’s value.

Bills such as Build Back Better are just a piece of the reason — we have more coming. We have a huge demographic issue, and a huge Social Security and Medicare bill not yet paid. Shoveling out more money and writing more IOUs will not help matters.

So, RIP, BBB. Please stay dead.

Author(s): Mary Pat Campbell

Publication Date: 21 Dec 2021

Publication Site: STUMP at substack

Omicron Is an Economic Threat, but Inflation Is Worse, Central Bankers Say

Mary Pat Campbell

Link:https://www.nytimes.com/2021/12/16/business/economy/omicron-inflation.html

Excerpt:

Facing surging inflation, three of the world’s most influential central banks — the Federal Reserve, Bank of England and European Central Bank — took decisive steps within 24 hours of each other to look past Omicron’s economic uncertainty.

On Thursday, Britain’s central bank unexpectedly raised interest rates for the first time in more than three years as a way to curb inflation that has reached a 10-year high. The eurozone’s central bank confirmed it would stop purchases under a bond-buying program in March. The day before, the Fed projected three interest rate increases next year and said it would accelerate the wind down of its own bond-buying program.

….

Aside from Omicron, the central banks were running out of reasons to continue emergency levels of monetary stimulus designed to keep money flowing through financial markets and to keep lending to businesses and households robust throughout the pandemic. The drastic measures of the past two years had done the job — and then some: Inflation is at a nearly 40-year high in the United States; in the eurozone it is the highest since records began in 1997; and price rises in Britain have consistently exceeded expectations.

….

The Federal Reserve and Bank of England are worried about the persistence of high inflation. For the European Central Bank, inflation in the medium term is too low, not too high. It is still forecasting inflation to be below its 2 percent target in 2023 and 2024. To help reach that target in coming years, the central bank will increase the size of an older bond-buying program beginning in April, after purchases end in the larger, pandemic-era program. This is to avoid “a brutal transition,” Ms. Lagarde said.

Author(s): Eshe Nelson

Publication Date: 16 Dec 2021

Publication Site: New York Times

Tiering Up – The Unfinished Business of Public Pension Reform in New York

Mary Pat Campbell

Link:https://www.empirecenter.org/publications/tieringup/

PDF of report: https://www.empirecenter.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/12/Tiering-Up_FINAL-Copy.pdf

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The Tier 5 and Tier 6 changes combined are saving New York state and local governments outside New York City more than $1 billion this year.

After record-busting investment returns in 2021, most of the state’s public pension plans report they are fully funded—but adjusting for financial risk, their combined unfunded liabilities still total nearly $400 billion.

The traditional defined-benefit pension system remains biased in favor of career and long-term employees, to the disadvantage of those who work shorter government careers.

Author(s): E.J. McMahon

Publication Date: 14 Dec 2021

Publication Site: Empire Center