Category: Public Finance

What happens when the public health emergency associated with COVID-19 ends?

Mary Pat Campbell

Link: https://contingencies.org/the-great-unwinding/

Excerpt:

The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic has now spanned three years. A lot has changed and will continue to change once society and every industry, especially health care, adjusts to the new post-COVID world. With the pandemic, a federal public health emergency (PHE) was declared, and legislation was then passed that had a major impact on how health care is administered from both an operational and financial perspective. Many temporary provisions were put into place that mostly impact Medicaid but ultimately affect all health insurance payers. As we look ahead to a point at which the PHE ends, those temporary provisions start to end in what many in the industry are calling the “unwinding of the PHE.” This article aims to provide an overview of the flexibilities that have been offered as a result of legislation tied to the PHE, examine the impacts of increased Medicaid enrollment, and assess how the risk profile of covered lives for all health insurance payers has changed.

The PHE that has been in effect because of the virus SARS-CoV-2 (which causes the disease COVID-19, or simply COVID), was declared on March 12, 2020, retroactively effective as of Jan. 31, 2020. 

….

Where does this leave us now? At the time of this writing, the PHE is under its ninth renewal (90-day extensions) and is set to expire July 15, 2022. HHS has previously informed states that at least 60 days’ notice will be provided, which means the end of the PHE will occur July 2022 or later. States receive the additional FMAP bump through the end of the quarter in which the PHE ends, which is slated to be Sept. 30, 2022. Before the omicron wave, many thought the PHE would end in early 2022. Popular opinion seems to have shifted to a later time period, with mid-to-late 2022 being the likely end of the PHE. Any continued uncertainty with the pandemic, such as another wave of cases, is likely to extend the PHE.

As we get close to the end of the PHE though, the focus shifts from case counts and test kits to the virus becoming endemic and moving past the PHE. This puts, front and center, the unwinding of all of the operational and financial elements that have been tied to the PHE since FFCRA was passed. When the unwinding starts, it will radically change the risk profile of Medicaid and all other health payors. Measuring and mitigating against this changing risk profile is where the nature of our profession as actuaries becomes critical. The biggest driver in the changing risk profile is the enrollment growth that has occurred with Medicaid since the pandemic began, as a number of these new members are at risk of losing their coverage.

Author(s): Colby Schaeffer

Publication Date: May/June 2022

Publication Site: Contingencies

Providence voters back $515m pension bond in low-turnout election

Mary Pat Campbell

Link: https://www.bostonglobe.com/2022/06/07/metro/providence-voters-back-515m-pension-bond-low-turnout-election/

Excerpt:

Fewer than 3,600 city voters on Tuesday backed Mayor Jorge Elorza’s proposal to borrow $515 million to shore up Providence’s ailing pension fund, according to unofficial results from the Board of Canvassers.

But even fewer voted against the bond.

In a special election that saw just 4 percent of the Providence’s 124,000 registered voters participate, the $515 million pension obligation bond won approval by a wide margin, with 70 percent supporting the proposal.

The plan still needs to be approved by the state Senate, but Tuesday’s vote dramatically increased the likelihood that Providence will be allowed to borrow $515 million and deposit the proceeds into the retirement system to invest.

Elorza has said the infusion of cash from the bond will allow the city to stabilize its pension fund, which has just 26 percent of the $1.6 billion it needs to pay current and future retirees over the next several decades, according to the city’s financial records.

Publication Date: 7 June 2022

Publication Site: Boston Globe

Legacy Debt in Public Pensions: A New Approach

Mary Pat Campbell

Link: https://crr.bc.edu/briefs/legacy-debt-in-public-pensions-a-new-approach/

Graphic:

Excerpt:

The inclusion of “legacy debt” – unfunded liabilities from long ago – with current liabilities impedes effective pension policy.

A new approach would separate legacy debt from other unfunded liabilities in order to:

spread the legacy cost over multiple generations; and

properly identify fixed vs. variable costs.

It would also use the municipal bond yield – rather than the assumed return on assets – to calculate liabilities and required contributions.

This approach, by properly allocating costs, would improve intergenerational fairness, government resource decisions, and public credibility.

Author(s): Jean-Pierre Aubry

Publication Date: June 2022

Publication Site: Center for Retirement Research at Boston College

The Empire of Fees

Mary Pat Campbell

Link: https://www.city-journal.org/how-charges-and-fines-drive-government-growth

Excerpt:

hen I wake up in the morning at my home in Austin, Texas, I turn on the lights, and thereby provide a few cents to the city government’s electric company. I flush the toilet, owing a few more to Austin’s sewer service. When I pour myself a glass of water, the city water department gets a piece. After I get dressed and step outside, I watch the city take my trash, my recycling, and my compost—each pickup costs a few dollars. Sometimes, I discover a $25 ticket for parking my car in the wrong spot. Then I swallow my anger and drive down the MoPac highway, where I pay a toll to the Central Texas Regional Mobility Authority. I park in a garage downtown owned by the Austin Transportation Department, pay them a few bucks, and walk to my office. If I need to take a trip out of town, I pay $1.25 for a Capital Metro District bus to the city-owned Austin-Bergstrom International Airport, where, along with the price of my plane ticket, I pay a $5.60 fee for the benefit of being patted down by a TSA agent, a Passenger Facility Charge, and a small part in any rents the city charges restaurants and retailers. Only when I’m in the air does the drain to the government stop.

In one typical morning, I handed over money to several government bodies. But I didn’t pay any taxes—only fees, charges, and fines. These are the future of government in the United States.

The idea that government operates just by taxing and spending money is anachronistic. A growing share of its revenue comes from charges that the government imposes in exchange for its services or as a penalty for breaking its rules. In 1950, about 1 percent of Americans’ income went to charges from state and local governments. Today, that number is 4 percent. Include federal fees and charges, themselves the fastest-growing part of federal revenue, and that number rises to over 5.5 percent. Though largely hidden from the public, fees and charges account for most of the growth in government over the past 70 years and have become the top source of revenue for state and local governments.

Author(s): Judge Glock

Publication Date: Spring 2022

Publication Site: City Journal

Jacksonville’s public pension reform helps the city get an improved credit rating

Mary Pat Campbell

Link: https://reason.org/commentary/jacksonvilles-public-pension-reform-helps-the-city-get-an-improved-credit-rating/

Excerpt:

The city of Jacksonville is about to enjoy the benefits of a credit rating boost. Moody’s Investors Service moved the Florida city’s credit rating to Aa2 from Aa3, citing pension reform among the main reasons for the upgrade. The credit rating increase will allow the state to borrow funds at a lower interest rate and invest in more infrastructure and public services. 

Five years ago, the Jacksonville City Council approved a pension reform package while enacting innovative changes, reducing debt by more than $585 million and adding over $155 million to pension reserves. A key element of the pension reform that led to reduced debt was closing the city’s three pension plans to new public employees in 2017. Since that change was put in place, over $715 million has been used to grow Jacksonville’s economy and invest in public services for its population. In addition, credit rating agencies, such as Moody’s, assign “grades” to governments’ ability and willingness to service their bond obligations, taking into consideration the jurisdiction’s economic situation and fiscal management. Since the pension reform reduced budgetary pressure, it improved the chances of the city getting a credit upgrade. 

Author(s): Jen Sidorova

Publication Date: 1 Jun 2022

Publication Site: Reason

CHICAGO CASINO REVENUE DOESN’T ADDRESS 91% OF CITY PENSION DEBT

Mary Pat Campbell

Link: https://www.illinoispolicy.org/chicago-casino-revenue-doesnt-address-91-of-city-pension-debt/

Excerpt:

The Chicago City Council approved a casino development in the River West neighborhood. The generated revenue will exclusively pay for pension debt, but only an estimated 9% of what the city needs.

The Chicago City Council approved a $1.7 billion casino in a 41-7 vote May 25. The River West development is being touted as a pension solution, but even the highest projections show only a drop in the bucket.

“This one casino project will pay for approximately 9% of our $2.3 billion pension contribution and reduce the likelihood that the city will need to raise property taxes in the future for pensions,” said Jennie Huang Bennet, chief financial officer for the city.

Author(s): Dylan Sharkey

Publication Date: 31 May 2022

Publication Site: Illinois Policy

Action on Social Security 2100 Bill Coming ‘Very Soon’: Rep. Larson

Mary Pat Campbell

Link: https://www.thinkadvisor.com/2022/05/23/action-on-social-security-2100-bill-coming-very-soon-rep-larson/

Excerpt:

The House Ways and Means Social Security Subcommittee plans to debate his Social Security 2100: A Sacred Trust bill soon, Rep. John Larson, D-Conn., chairman of the House Ways and Means Social Security Subcommittee, told ThinkAdvisor in a recent email.

The legislation adopts the consumer price index for the elderly as the basis of the annual cost-of-living adjustment (COLA) and applies the payroll tax to annual wages above $400,000.

“We are in the process of working toward markup, which will be held hopefully very soon,” Larson said in the email.

Author(s): Melanie Waddell

Publication Date: 23 May 2022

Publication Site: Think Advisor

WHAT’S THE PRICE OF FORGETTING FAT LEONARD?

Mary Pat Campbell

Link: https://inkstickmedia.com/whats-the-price-of-forgetting-fat-leonard/

Graphic:

Excerpt:

“How is this not a movie?”

This is the common response when people learn about the US Navy’s Fat Leonard scandal. The high stakes drama and salacious details do seem made for the silver screen, but what’s more surprising is how many people — among them Hill staff, Pentagon budget experts, and other defense policy participants — are unaware of the crimes that proliferated up and down the ranks of the 7th Fleet less than a decade ago. That military leaders, Congress, and the public seem to have forgotten this affair that took down rising leaders, defrauded the US government, and undermined our national security is at least as troubling as the events themselves. 

Here’s the short version of events: 

The US Navy contracted with Glenn Marine Group (GMG), a ship husbanding company that assisted the Navy with port security, repairs, fueling, restocking and other dockside needs. The president of GMG, Francis Leonard (aka Fat Leonard), overbilled the Navy for things like fresh water and redirected carrier movements to ports where he could charge the most. He bribed officers with $18,000 meals and extravagant hotel stays, prostitutes, parties, cash, and luxury goods. He gained access to sensitive information and paid off people in roles who could help avoid investigations into his activities. Only after the US Department of Justice stepped in — to investigate a suspected mole within the Naval Criminal Investigative Service (NCIS) who was tipping off Leonard — did the enterprise start to unravel. 

In 2013, federal agents arrested Leonard in San Diego and charged another 33 people with various crimes, though Leonard’s activities cast a much wider net. In 2018, the Washington Post reported that: “According to the Navy, an additional 550 active-duty and retired military personnel — including about 60 admirals — have come under scrutiny for possible violations of military law or ethics rules.” 

Author(s): Nan Swift

Publication Date: 18 March 2022

Publication Site: Inkstick Media

UMWA 5500 Update – 6/30/21

Mary Pat Campbell

Link: https://burypensions.wordpress.com/2022/06/02/umwa-5500-update-6-30-21/

Excerpt:

Five years ago retired coal miners traveled to Washington, D.C. to lobby lawmakers to put in place a federal safety net in case the United Mine Workers of America (UMWA) pension fund fails. Coal plant closures and company bankruptcies have sent the pension fund to the edge of collapse. In October, 2019 Murray Energy, the last major company propping up the dwindling fund, also went bankrupt and the prediction was insolvency in FY23.

By the April 15, 2022 deadline, the plan submitted their 5500 form for the year ended 6/30/21 showing only 68 active participants remaining and providing an idea of how much more taxpayers will now be on the hook for on top of what appears to be the $330 million that came in during the plan year.

Author(s): John Bury

Publication Date: 3 June 2022

Publication Site: Burypensions

New York loses $19.5 billion in population exodus, IRS confirms

Mary Pat Campbell

Link: https://www.thecentersquare.com/new_york/new-york-loses-19-5-billion-in-population-exodus-irs-confirms/article_c805dfd6-dde6-11ec-8d0e-4f667cd41881.html

Excerpt:

The Internal Revenue Service this week released more troubling data for New York, with the federal agency showing more high-earning taxpayers leaving the state.

Tracking returns filed in 2019 and 2020 showed that 479,826 people left New York for another state or country in those years. Over the same timeframe, just 231,439 people moved to the state. That means the state suffered a net loss of 248,387 residents.

And, of course, those people took their money with them. The IRS figures show the moves generated an economic exodus of more than $19.5 billion.

New Jersey and Florida were the biggest beneficiaries. More than 84,500 people moved from New York to New Jersey and took $5.3 billion. By contrast, only 37,127 New Jersey residents moved to New York and brought $2.2 billion in income.

….

Wirepoints, in its analysis, noted New York suffered the worst net loss of income of any state, with the $19.5 billion representing a 2.5 percent decline in adjusted gross income. 

Author(s): Steve Bittenbender

Publication Date: 28 May 2022

Publication Site: The Center Square

Census: Illinois cities combined lose 104,000 people in 2021

Mary Pat Campbell

Link: https://www.thecentersquare.com/illinois/census-illinois-cities-combined-lose-104-000-people-in-2021/article_5a261c26-dc63-11ec-8881-f30cf9c72ea4.html?utm_source=Master+List&utm_campaign=e66598c836-MICHIGAN_B2C_NEWSLETTER&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_d03ba9ddf1-e66598c836-74692253

Graphic:

Excerpt:

Cities and towns in Illinois lost more than 104,000 people in the 12 months up to July 1, 2021, according to new U.S. Census data released Thursday. Nearly half of Illinois’ losses were from Chicago.

The report for the entire country shows populations continue to shift to towns in the South and West regions of the United States.

“Arizona, Texas, Florida and Idaho all had several places among the 15 fastest-growing cities or towns,” the report said.

Of the 15 largest cities, New York lost nearly 305,500 people. Chicago lost 45,175 people, which was larger than Los Angeles’ loss of 40,537 people. Chicago is the third most populous city behind New York and L.A..

Author(s): Greg Bishop

Publication Date: 26 May 2022

Publication Site: The Center Square

PBGC Approves Bailouts for Five More Multiemployer Plans in May

Mary Pat Campbell

Link: https://www.ai-cio.com/news/pbgc-approves-bailouts-for-five-more-multiemployer-plans-in-may/

Excerpt:

The Pension Benefit Guaranty Corporation has approved applications submitted to the Special Financial Assistance Program by five more struggling multiemployer plans in May alone. The PBGC has now approved more than $6.2 billion in bailout funds to plans covering close to 120,000 workers and retirees.

The PBGC said it will provide $210.4 million in SFA funding to the Local 365 UAW Pension Fund Pension Plan of Englewood Cliffs, New Jersey, which covers 3,736 participants in the manufacturing industry.

The Local 365 UAW Plan became insolvent in December 2020, at which time the PBGC began providing the plan with financial assistance. As required by law, the plan reduced participants’ benefits to the PBGC guarantee levels, which were approximately 20% below the benefits payable under the terms of the plan.

Author(s): Michael Katz

Publication Date: 23 May 2022

Publication Site: ai-CIO