George, who is 51 years old, has been a police officer in Chester County for 31 years. He has lived a life of action — which comes with some feelings of invincibility. “As a police officer, there are times we think we are indestructible,” he explains.
Because of his active lifestyle — and no signs of heart problems whatsoever — heart disease was the furthest thing from George’s mind. “I walked anywhere from 6 to 8 hours a day. I was never winded, never tired, and I had no numbness. All of those telltale signs of heart disease — I never got any of them,” George explains.
Through a collaboration between Chester County Hospital and local police departments, George was offered a free cardiac risk screening for first responders. Despite zero signs of heart disease, he figured he might as well take advantage. Little did he know, he would end up having open-heart surgery just a few months later.
Publication Date: 10 Feb 2020
Publication Site: Chester County Hospital, Penn Medicine blog
Men and women in the prime of their lives are increasingly being diagnosed with serious cancers, including colorectal, breast, prostate, uterine, stomach (gastric), pancreatic, and more. One forecast predicts cancer for this age group will increase by 30% globally from 2019 to 2030.
MSK is a pioneer in caring for the specific needs of people facing what are often called early-onset cancers, who confront very different challenges than older adults. The coming surge in cases is a key reason MSK is building a new state-of-the-art hospital, called the MSK Pavilion.
Just as importantly, MSK experts are leading the investigation into why this is happening.
This paper analyzes the all-cause mortality experience of a large cohort of applicants linked to the number and severity of their recent driving infractions. The study verifies that significant excess mortality risk exists for applicants with a recent history of either major or frequent driving violations. The extra mortality risk for drivers with adverse MVRs is persistent across ages for both genders. The results from this study also suggest that MVRs likely have positive protective value across a wide spectrum of ages and face amounts.
When planning for retirement, it’s important to consider all the risks, and one consideration that individuals often overlook is “longevity risk.” Longevity risk refers to the chance a person could outlive their savings. Understanding longevity and reasonably estimating the probabilities of living to various advanced ages and the risk of outliving resources are important for planning a secure retirement.
As a result of healthy lifestyles, medical advancements and scientific discoveries, it has become much more common for people these days to live into their 80s and 90s — or even their 100s! In fact, Pew Research Center writes that, according to estimates by the U.S. Census Bureau, there are about 101,000 centenarians in the U.S. in 2024, and this population could quadruple to about 422,000 in 2054.
While a long life is something most people desire, it requires planning for a longer retirement than in the past. For example, if a worker retires at 67, planning for a 20-year retirement may not be enough, and if they live to be in their 90s, or even past 100, they could outlive their savings or end up with fewer assets to leave their heirs.
The Society of Actuaries (SOA) Research Institute’s Mortality and Longevity Strategic Research Program Steering Committee issued a call for essays to explore the application of artificial intelligence (AI) to mortality and longevity. The objective was to gather a variety of perspectives and experiences on the use of AI in mortality modeling, forecasting and prediction to promote discussion and future research around this topic.
The collection includes six essays that were accepted for publication from all submissions. Two essays were chosen for prizes based on their creativity, originality, and likelihood of further thought on the subject matter.
Author(s): multiple
Publication Date: September 2024
Publication Site: Society of Actuaries, SOA Research Institute
This data visualization presents provisional counts for drug overdose deaths based on a current flow of mortality data in the National Vital Statistics System. Counts for the most recent final annual data are provided for comparison. National provisional counts include deaths occurring within the 50 states and the District of Columbia as of the date specified and may not include all deaths that occurred during a given time period. Provisional counts are often incomplete and causes of death may be pending investigation (see Technical notes) resulting in an underestimate relative to final counts. To address this, methods were developed to adjust provisional counts for reporting delays by generating a set of predicted provisional counts (see Technical notes).
The provisional data presented in this visualization include: (a) the reported and predicted provisional counts of deaths due to drug overdose occurring nationally and in each jurisdiction; (b) a U.S. map of the percentage changes in provisional drug overdose deaths for the current 12 month-ending period compared with the 12-month period ending in the same month of the previous year, by jurisdiction; and (c) the reported and predicted provisional counts of drug overdose deaths involving specific drugs or drug classes occurring nationally and in selected jurisdictions. The reported and predicted provisional counts represent the numbers of deaths due to drug overdose occurring in the 12-month periods ending in the month indicated. These counts include all seasons of the year and are insensitive to variations by seasonality. Deaths are reported by the jurisdiction in which the death occurred.
Several data quality metrics, including the percent completeness in overall death reporting, percentage of deaths with cause of death pending further investigation, and the percentage of drug overdose deaths with specific drugs or drug classes reported are included to aid in interpretation of provisional data as these measures are related to the accuracy of provisional counts (see Technical notes). Reporting of the specific drugs and drug classes involved in drug overdose deaths varies by jurisdiction, and comparisons of death rates involving specific drugs across selected jurisdictions should not be made (see Technical notes). Provisional data presented in this visualization will be updated on a monthly basis as additional records are received.
Publication Date: Accessed 19 Sept 2024
Publication Site: National Center for Health Statistics, CDC
Four years on from the outbreak of the pandemic in 2020, many countries worldwide still report elevated deaths in their populations. This impact appears generally independent of healthcare systems and population health. This trend is evident even after accounting for shifting population sizes, and the range of reporting mechanisms and death classifications that make inter-country comparisons complex. There is also likely a degree of excess mortality under-reporting.
Quantifying excess mortality has been an acute challenge since 2020 due to the exceptional mortality rates of the pandemic. Excess mortality refers to the number of deaths over and above an assumed “expected” number of deaths. The different methods of estimating expected mortality can generate very different excess mortality rates.
This represents a potential challenge for Life and Health (L&H) insurance, with potentially several years of elevated mortality claims ahead, depending on how general population trends translate into the insured population. Ongoing excess mortality can have implications for L&H insurance claims and reserves. Excess mortality that continues to exceed current expectations may affect the long-term performance of in-force life portfolios as well as the pricing of new life policies.
Author(s): By Daniel Meier, Life & Health R&D Manager, CUO L&H Reinsurance & Prachi Patkee, Life & Health R&D Analyst, CUO L&H Reinsurance & Adam Strange, Life & Health R&D Manager, CUO L&H Reinsurance
Introduction More than 30 million adults are released from incarceration globally each year. Many experience complex physical and mental health problems, and are at markedly increased risk of preventable mortality. Despite this, evidence regarding the global epidemiology of mortality following release from incarceration is insufficient to inform the development of targeted, evidence-based responses. Many previous studies have suffered from inadequate power and poor precision, and even large studies have limited capacity to disaggregate data by specific causes of death, sub-populations or time since release to answer questions of clinical and public health relevance.
Objectives To comprehensively document the incidence, timing, causes and risk factors for mortality in adults released from prison.
Methods We created the Mortality After Release from Incarceration Consortium (MARIC), a multi-disciplinary collaboration representing 29 cohorts of adults who have experienced incarceration from 11 countries. Findings across cohorts will be analysed using a two-step, individual participant data meta-analysis methodology.
Results The combined sample includes 1,337,993 individuals (89% male), with 75,795 deaths recorded over 9,191,393 person-years of follow-up.
Conclusions The consortium represents an important advancement in the field, bringing international attention to this problem. It will provide internationally relevant evidence to guide policymakers and clinicians in reducing preventable deaths in this marginalized population.
Author(s): Borschmann, R., Tibble, H., Spittal, M. J., Preen, D., Pirkis, J., Larney, S., Rosen, D. L., Young, J. T., Love, A. D., Altice, F. L., Binswanger, I. A., Bukten, A., Butler, T., Chang, Z., Chen, C.-Y., Clausen, T., Christensen, P. B., Culbert, G. J., Degenhardt, L., Dirkzwager, A. J., Dolan, K., Fazel, S., Fischbacher, C., Giles, M., Graham, L., Harding, D., Huang, Y.-F., Huber, F., Karaminia, A., Kouyoumdjian, F. G., Lim, S., Møller, L., Moniruzzaman, A., Morenoff, J., O’Moore, E., Pizzicato, L. N., Pratt, D., Proescholdbell, S. F., Ranapurwala, S. I., Shanahan, M. E., Shaw, J., Slaunwhite, A., Somers, J. M., Spaulding, A. C., Stern, M. F., Viner, K. M., Wang, N., Willoughby, M., Zhao, B. and Kinner, S. A.
Publication Date: February 2020
Publication Site: International Journal of Population Data Science
We analyzed all deaths from 1999 to 2023 in which the International Statistical Classification of Diseases and Related Health Problems, 10th Revision code was P81 (environmental hyperthermia of newborn), T67 (effects of heat and light), or X30 (exposure to excessive natural heat) as either the underlying cause or as a contributing cause of death, as recorded in the Multiple Cause of Death file. Data were accessed through the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s WONDER platform,5 which combines death counts with population estimates produced by the US Census Bureau to calculate mortality rates. For each year, we extracted age-adjusted mortality rates (AAMRs) per 100 000 person-years for heat-related deaths. The AAMR accounts for differences due to age structures, allowing direct comparisons across time. The approach of analyzing cause-specific mortality rates rather than excess mortality is warranted because the excess mortality methodology is subject to confounding from the COVID-19 pandemic from 2020 to 2023. This study used publicly available, deidentified aggregate data; thus, it was not considered human subjects research.
Joinpoint version 5.2.0 (National Cancer Institute) regression6 was used to analyze AAMRs to assess trends and determine elbow points where the trend began to shift to a new trajectory. Results of joinpoint analyses are reported as average annual percentage change (AAPC) in rates with 95% CIs. Statistical significance was defined as 2-sided P < .05. Data were visualized with R version 4.2.2 (R Foundation for Statistical Computing).
Results
From 1999 to 2023, 21 518 deaths were recorded as heat-related underlying or contributing cause of death, with an AAMR of 0.26 per 100 000 person-years (95% CI, 0.24-0.27) (Table). The number of heat-related deaths increased from 1069 (AAMR = 0.38; 95% CI, 0.36-0.40) in 1999 to 2325 (AAMR = 0.62; 95% CI, 0.60-0.65) in 2023, a 117% increase in the number of heat-related deaths and a 63% increase in the AAMR. The lowest number of heat-related deaths in the study period was 311 in 2004, whereas the highest, 2325, was in 2023.
Results of the joinpoint trend analysis showed that during the entire period, the AAMR increased by 3.6% per year (AAPC = 3.6%; 95% CI, 0.1%-7.2%; P = .04) from 1999 to 2023 (Figure). The number of heat-related deaths and AAMR showed year-to-year variability, with spikes in 2006 and 2011, before showing steady increases after 2016. Joinpoint results showed a nonsignificant decrease of 1.4% per year from 1999 to 2016 (AAPC = −1.4%; 95% CI, −4.7% to 2.1%; P = .42), followed by a significant increase of 16.8% per year in the AAMR from 2016 to 2023 (AAPC = 16.8%; 95% CI, 6.4%-28.2%; P = .002).
Author(s): Jeffrey T. Howard, PhD1; Nicole Androne, MS1; Karl C. Alcover, PhD2; et al
Publication Date: Published online August 26, 2024 ` Publication Site: JAMA Network
More Americans died from heat in 2023 than any year in over two decades of records, according to the findings published Monday. Last year was also the globe’s hottest year on record, the latest grim milestone in a warming trend fueled by climate change.
The study, published in the American Medical Association journal JAMA, found that 2,325 people died from heat in 2023. Researchers admit that number is likely an undercount. The research adjusted for a growing and aging U.S. population, and found the death toll was still staggering.
….
Howard – along with researchers from the Uniformed Services University of the Health Sciences, in Maryland, and Pennsylvania State University – examined death certificate data between 1999 and 2023. Deaths were counted if heat was listed as an underlying or contributing cause of death.
Reported deaths remained relatively flat until around 2016, when the number of people dying began increasing, in what Howard, who studies health effects from extreme weather, calls a “hockey stick.” The hockey stick analogy has been used to describe warming global temperatures caused by climate change, where temperatures have swooped upward at alarming rates in recent years.
Howard’s study suggests the human toll follows the same outline. An important indicator is age-adjusted deaths per 100,000 people. That heat-related death rate has increased dramatically compared to the early 2000s, regardless of age or population size.
The upward trajectory appears to be sharpening recently. In 2022, 1,722 people died at an adjusted rate of 0.47. But 2023 saw 603 more deaths than the previous year, with an adjusted rate of 0.63, the highest on record.
Deaths weren’t evenly spread nationally. In an interview, Howard said deaths were overwhelmingly concentrated in traditionally hot regions: Arizona, California, Nevada and Texas.
The study is limited in how local governments classify heat-related deaths, which could mean the actual number of deaths is an undercount. It’s also potentially skewed as more people become aware of the fatal risks of heat. The study didn’t break down vulnerable groups. For example, people without air conditioning, those who live or work outdoors, and people with underlying health conditions, are all at greater risk of serious illness or death from heat.
FIGURE 1. Provisional* number of COVID-19–associated deaths† and other deaths and percentage of deaths associated with COVID-19, by week of death — National Vital Statistics System, United States, 2023
* National Vital Statistics System provisional data for 2023 are incomplete. Data from December 2023 are less complete because of reporting lags. These data exclude deaths that occurred in the United States among residents of U.S. territories and foreign countries.
† Deaths with confirmed or presumed COVID-19 as an underlying or contributing cause of death, with International Classification of Diseases, Tenth Revision code U07.1.
Excerpt:
Abstract
Final annual mortality data from the National Vital Statistics System for a given year are typically released 11 months after the end of the calendar year. Provisional data, which are based on preliminary death certificate data, provide an early estimate of deaths before the release of final data. In 2023, a provisional total of 3,090,582 deaths occurred in the United States. The age-adjusted death rate per 100,000 population was 884.2 among males and 632.8 among females; the overall rate, 750.4, was 6.1% lower than in 2022 (798.8). The overall rate decreased for all age groups. Overall age-adjusted death rates in 2023 were lowest among non-Hispanic multiracial (352.1) and highest among non-Hispanic Black or African American persons (924.3). The leading causes of death were heart disease, cancer, and unintentional injury. The number of deaths from COVID-19 (76,446) was 68.9% lower than in 2022 (245,614). Provisional death estimates provide an early signal about shifts in mortality trends. Timely and actionable data can guide public health policies and interventions for populations experiencing higher mortality.
Author(s): Farida B. Ahmad, MPH1; Jodi A. Cisewski, MPH1; Robert N. Anderson, PhD
Suggested citation for this article: Ahmad FB, Cisewski JA, Anderson RN. Mortality in the United States — Provisional Data, 2023. MMWR Morb Mortal Wkly Rep 2024;73:677–681. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.15585/mmwr.mm7331a1
