Category: Investments

Ontario Teachers Pension Could Lose $95 Million on FTX Investment

Mary Pat Campbell

Link: https://www.ai-cio.com/news/ontario-teachers-pension-could-lose-95-million-on-ftx-investment/

Excerpt:

Canada’s Ontario Teachers Pension Plan could lose as much as $95 million that it had invested in now bankrupt cryptocurrency exchange FTX.

In October of last year, the C$242.5 billion ($182.9 billion) pension fund announced that it had participated along with 68 other investors in a $420 million funding round for FTX Trading Ltd., which is the owner and operator of FTX.COM. The investment was made through OTPP’s C$8.2 billion Teachers’ Venture Growth platform.

The pension fund says TVG, which was established in 2019 to invest in emerging technology companies raising late-stage venture and growth capital, seeks out innovative companies “that are using technology to shape a better future.”

Although the pension fund didn’t say how much of the $420 million it accounted for at the time of the announcement, it recently disclosed that it invested a total of $75 million during that round of funding in both FTX International and its U.S. entity FTX.US. It also revealed that it made a follow-on investment of $20 million in FTX .US three months later in January.

Author(s): Michael Katz

Publication Date: 11 Nov 2022

Publication Site: ai-CIO

People Will Pay for Illiquidity

Mary Pat Campbell

Link: https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2022-11-01/people-will-pay-for-illiquidity

Excerpt:

Adding liquidity is, conventionally, desirable. It reduces risk: If you can sell a thing easily, that makes it less risky to buy it, so you are more likely to commit capital to the thing. It increases demand: If only a few rich people can buy a thing with great difficulty, it will probably have a lower price than if everyone can buy a share of it easily. It improves transparency and makes prices more efficient. Also, financial innovation tends to be done by banks and other financial intermediaries, and their goal is pretty much to do more intermediation. More liquidity means more trading, which means more profits for banks.

Another, funnier sort of financial innovation is about subtracting liquidity. If you can buy and sell something whenever you want at a clearly observable market price, that is efficient, sure, but it can also be annoying.

….

Or we have talked about a fun post from Cliff Asness titled “ The Illiquidity Discount,” in which he argues that private equity is essentially in the business of selling illiquidity. If you are a big institution and you buy stocks in public companies, the stocks might go down, and you will be sad for various reasons. You might be tempted to sell at the wrong time. You will have to report your results to your stakeholders, and if the stocks went down those results will be bad and you will get yelled at or fired. Whereas if you put your money in a private equity fund, it will buy whole public companies and take them private, and then you won’t know what the stock price is and won’t be able to sell. The private equity fund will send you periodic reports about the values of your investments, but those values won’t necessarily move that much with public-market stock prices: The fund will base its valuations on its estimates of long-term cash flows, and those will not change from day to day. By being illiquid, the private equity fund can look less volatile. Getting similar returns with less volatility is good; getting similar returns and feeling like you have less volatility also might be good.[4] Asness writes:

If people get that PE is truly volatile but you just don’t see it, what’s all the excitement about? Well, big time multi-year illiquidity and its oft-accompanying pricing opacity may actually be a feature not a bug! Liquid, accurately priced investments let you know precisely how volatile they are and they smack you in the face with it. What if many investors actually realize that this accurate and timely information will make them worse investors as they’ll use that liquidity to panic and redeem at the worst times? What if illiquid, very infrequently and inaccurately priced investments made them better investors as essentially it allows them to ignore such investments given low measured volatility and very modest paper drawdowns? “Ignore” in this case equals “stick with through harrowing times when you might sell if you had to face up to the full losses.” What if investors are simply smart enough to know that they can take on a lot more risk (true long-term risk) if it’s simply not shoved in their face every day (or multi-year period!)? 

One objection to this sort of financial product — illiquidity provision — is that it does not generate a lot of transactions. If you work at a bank and you think of a product that will cause customers to trade bonds or houses or diamonds more often, then it is pretty easy to figure out how to make money from that product. 

Author(s): Matt Levine

Publication Date: 1 Nov 2022

Publication Site: Bloomberg

Milliman analysis: Corporate pension funding ratio surges to 112.8% in October thanks to rising discount rates

Mary Pat Campbell

Link: https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/milliman-analysis-corporate-pension-funding-ratio-surges-to-112-8-in-october-thanks-to-rising-discount-rates-301669154.html

Excerpt:

Milliman, Inc., a premier global consulting and actuarial firm, today released the results of its latest Milliman 100 Pension Funding Index (PFI), which analyzes the 100 largest U.S. corporate pension plans.

During October, the Milliman 100 PFI funded ratio rose from 108.8% on September 30 to 112.8% on October 31, reaching a new high for the year. The change was driven by a 35-basis-point hike in the monthly discount rate. The PFI projected benefit obligation decreased to $1.266 trillion as the discount rate rose from 5.36% in September to 5.71% for October—the highest rate since March 2010. This increase helped to offset October’s flat investment returns of 0.21%, which lowered the Milliman 100 PFI asset value by $4 billion.

Publication Date: 4 Nov 2022

Publication Site: PRNEWSWIRE

Why Bond Liquidity May Be Headed for Trouble

Mary Pat Campbell

Link: https://www.ai-cio.com/news/why-bond-liquidity-may-be-headed-for-trouble/

Excerpt:

Reduced liquidity for bonds is getting to be a problem, according to Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen.

At a speech before the Securities Industry and Financial Markets Association annual meeting Tuesday, she reiterated an earlier observation that diminished ability to sell bonds is worrisome. Still, at SIFMA, she sought to temper her concern by adding that traders aren’t facing snags executing orders, with the biggest negative impact of lessened liquidity confined to higher transaction costs.

…..

The gauge for bond volatility, the Merrill Lynch Option Volatility Estimate, aka MOVE index, has jumped some 40% since mid-August. Other than a spike in March 2020 at the onset of the pandemic, the index (it launched in 2019) has been fairly placid—until 2022 and the beginning of big rate hikes. This all is reminiscent of the stock market’s fast-paced volatility lately.

Another related difficulty for bonds:  the imbroglio resulting from the Federal Reserve’s interest rate increases and the resulting strong dollar risk worldwide. That has promoted a rush by other central banks to match the Fed and jack up rates. To Richard Farr, chief market strategist at Merion Capital, one risk of this trend is that Treasury bonds will end up hurt.

Author(s): Larry Light

Publication Date: 26 Oct 2022

Publication Site: ai-CIO

A Coalition of Republican Attorneys General Targets Banks for Net-Zero Alliance Membership

Mary Pat Campbell

Link: https://www.ai-cio.com/news/a-coalition-of-republican-attorneys-general-target-banks-for-net-zero-alliance-membership/

Excerpt:

Republicans have seized upon the issues of net-zero and environmental, social and governance investing to call attention to what they claim are negative effects of so-called ‘woke’ orthodoxy on portfolio performance, and harm the U.S. energy industry.

They have also raised the potential for a lapse in fiduciary duty by arguing that allocating towards long-term ESG goals may create short-term underperformance, harming plan beneficiaries.

The attorneys general of 14 states – Arizona, Arkansas, Indiana, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Mississippi, Missouri, Montana, Nebraska, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Texas, Virginia, and five more that have joined but can’t be named due to state laws or regulations regarding confidentiality –have sent civil investigative demands to the six U.S. banks the investigation targets

The six banks did not respond to requests for comment.

The coalition argues that the banks’ membership in the Net-Zero Banking Alliance is damaging U.S. energy companies. The CIDs, similar to subpoenas, are legally enforceable requests for information related to state or federal investigations.

Author(s): Dusty Hagedorn

Publication Date: 25 Oct 2022

Publication Site: ai-CIO

Interest Rate Hikes Will Make Climate Change Worse

Mary Pat Campbell

Link: https://jacobin.com/2022/10/interest-rates-climate-change-liz-truss-tories

Excerpt:

Raising interest rates won’t just push Britain into a recession and make the cost-of-living crisis worse for working-class people — it will discourage badly needed investments in green energy, undermining the UK’s efforts to address climate change.

….

The theory goes that higher interest rates help bring inflation down by making credit more expensive across the economy and reducing the amount of money firms and families have to spend on goods and services, thereby slowing price increases. But our inflation is predominantly driven by external factors, most notably high gas prices resulting from COVID-19 supply issues and the war in Ukraine. Instead, the bank’s policy is likely to push the UK economy into a recession, without addressing the main underlying causes of rising prices. That also means higher costs of borrowing for the very investments we need to reduce our reliance on costly fossil gas, like wind farms and home insulation.

To compound the problem, higher interest rates discourage investment in clean projects more than dirty ones. Running renewables doesn’t cost much: they rely on free wind and solar energy instead of expensive fossil fuels. But building them in the first place does come with high initial costs, meaning they are particularly impacted by the higher costs of credit. Similarly, insulation and heat pumps need to be paid for up front, before they begin to lower energy bills for households. Demand for improvements like heat pumps is significantly influenced by the availability of cheap loans to cover the initial installation costs.

Author(s): LUKASZ KREBEL

Publication Date: 23 Oct 2022

Publication Site: Jacobin

CalSTRS’ board sets science-based emissions goal for 2030 and commits to additional net zero actions

Mary Pat Campbell

Link: https://www.calstrs.com/calstrs-board-sets-science-based-emissions-goal-for-2030-and-commits-to-additional-net-zero-actions

Excerpt:

The board set four initial measures for integrating the net zero strategy across the portfolio, with a specific focus on emissions reductions:

  1. Interim science-based goal. Reduce greenhouse gas emissions across the investment portfolio by 50% by 2030, consistent with the latest findings of the United Nations’ Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.
  2. Systematic decision-making process. Adopt processes to incorporate greenhouse gas emissions into investment decisions as part of traditional risk-and-return analyses and their potential impacts on the CalSTRS Funding Plan.
  3. Reduced emissions. Target a 20% allocation of the Public Equity portfolio to a low-carbon index to significantly reduce portfolio emissions while managing active risk.
  4. Integration of climate scenarios. Incorporate future climate-related scenarios into CalSTRS’ asset-liability modeling framework to help guide CalSTRS’ investment allocations.

These actions reflect increasing global momentum toward achieving a net zero economy. CalSTRS will review its net zero goals and strategy annually to adjust for the latest available data, market fluctuations and related scientific advancements.

“CalSTRS’ net zero pledge is rooted in its century-long promise to deliver a secure retirement for California’s hard-working educators and their families,” said Board Chair Harry Keiley. “Taking these interim actions to reduce emissions in our portfolio is a profound step forward and underscores our commitment to considering the impacts of climate change fully and systematically as we manage our fund on every level.”

Author(s): Rebecca Forée

Publication Date: 31 August 2022

Publication Site: Calstrs

New York Announces Historic Fossil Fuel Divestment Plan

Mary Pat Campbell

Link: https://www.nrdc.org/experts/rich-schrader/new-york-announces-historic-fossil-fuel-divestment-plan

Excerpt:

As part of the plan, the Comptroller announced an aggressive schedule of divestment activity over the next four years. This year already, the Common Fund has divested from 22 coal companies. In the next few months, it will divest from companies with tar sands investments. After that, over the next several years, it will divest from these subsectors of the fossil fuel industry:

  • Shale oil and gas firms;
  • Integrated oil/gas majors like Exxon and Chevron as well as smaller integrated companies;
  • All oil/gas exploration and production firms;
  • Fossil fuel service firms, like Schlumberger;
  • And finally, fossil fuel transportation and pipeline companies like Kinder Morgan and Williams.

In addition, the Common Fund is moving forward with two key steps, both supported by the 2018 Decarbonization Panel that was jointly appointed by Governor Cuomo and Comptroller DiNapoli. First, the Fund will hire new staff trained in financial analysis of climate impacts and dangers. And second, the Common Fund will actively vote against board directors of non-fossil fuel companies that do not prioritize climate concerns in alignment with the Fund’s decarbonization goals.

Author(s): Rich Schrader

Publication Date: 9 Dec 2020

Publication Site: NRDC

So Are ESG Investments Lousy, or Not?

Mary Pat Campbell

Link: https://www.ai-cio.com/in-focus/market-drilldown/so-are-esg-investments-lousy-or-not/?oly_enc_id=2359H8978023B3G

Excerpt:

One criticism of ESG investing is that, when it shows good returns, this might be because of temporary factors that have an outsize impact. Such superior returns are  often driven by climate-news “shocks,” declared Robert Stambaugh, a professor at the University of Pennsylvania’s Wharton School, and two other academics, in a recent paper. The reference is apparently to a spell of severe drought or destructive hurricanes. The professors expressed uncertainty as to whether any future ESG outperformance can be assumed.

Of course, with climate-oriented investing now a partisan issue, a welter of claims and counter-claims has appeared. To pro-ESG folks, science is on their side, hence the opposition is just blowing smoke to confuse people.

Anti-ESG politicians appear to be convincing the public that a “false equivalence” exists between their stance and the sustainability advocates, contended Witold Henisz, director of Wharton’s ESG Initiative, in a recent article in the Knowledge Wharton periodical. He wrote that “ideological opposition [is] cynically seeking a wedge issue for upcoming political campaigns — and, so far, it appears to be working.”

Whatever the outcome of the current debate over ESG-related bans and the like, the climate change question is not going away. Says CalSTRS’s Ailman, “It will be with us for the next 50 years.”

Author(s): Larry Light

Publication Date: 8 Sept 2022

Publication Site: ai-CIO

Transcript: Tom Rampulla

Mary Pat Campbell

Link: https://ritholtz.com/2022/10/transcript-tom-rampulla/

Excerpt:

BARRY RITHOLTZ, HOST, MASTERS IN BUSINESS: This week on the podcast, I have an extra special guest, Tom Rampulla has been with the Vanguard Group since 1988. He has worked with every CEO, starting with Jack Bogle, all the way up to the current CEO Tim Buckley, and has essentially helped to establish the Financial Advisors Group, essentially the group at Vanguard that works with RIAs and broker dealers and other financial professionals who provide portfolios, advice, financial plans to the investing public.

He has a unique perch from with which to view the financial services industry, both from within Vanguard as well as looking out over the financial landscape and seeing what’s going on with such trends as mutual funds, ETFs, direct indexing, the rise of passive, the rise not just of Vanguard, but the dominance of Vanguard, and the associated Vanguard effect, the pressure on fees that have helped make investing so affordable. We discussed all these things as well as why there has never been a better time to be a retail investor than right now, right here in this era. I found the conversation to be absolutely fascinating, and I think you will also.

So with no further ado, my conversation with the Vanguard Group’s Tom Rampulla.

I’m Barry Ritholtz. You’re listening to Masters in Business on Bloomberg Radio. My special guest this week is Tom Rampulla. He is the managing director of Vanguard’s Financial Advisor Services Division, where he began back in 2002. That group provides investment services, education and research to more than a thousand financial advisory firms, representing more than $3 trillion in assets. Tom joined Vanguard back in 1988. Tom Rampulla, welcome to Bloomberg.

THOMAS RAMPULLA, MANAGING DIRECTOR, FINANCIAL ADVISOR SERVICES DIVISION, VANGUARD: Thanks, Barry. It’s great to be here.

……

RAMPULLA: You talk to them off the ledge. My clients, the advisors are really earning their fees right now, and providing a tremendous amount of value. So there’s a lot of phone volume, a lot of digital volume, so we’re very, very, very busy. And you know, it’s all about calming people down, we’ll get through this, you look at the long term. Things tend to work out. We — you know, our investing philosophy is, first of all, get an objective, put a plan together, make sure it’s a low cost plan.

And the other thing is be disciplined, right. Stick to your plan, just get rid of the noise. This is big noise. This isn’t just some little blip. This is big noise, but you know, get rid of noise and be disciplined. Most times that’s around rebalancing. This time, stocks and bonds are both going down, so you’re not rebalancing so much. But you know, March of 2020 was a great opportunity to rebalance and add some value. So it’s really sticking to that long-term approach and that discipline is what we really recommend.

Publication Date: 18 Oct 2022

Publication Site: Barry Ritholtz

Why private equity sees life and annuities as an enticing form of permanent capital

Mary Pat Campbell

Link: https://www.mckinsey.com/industries/private-equity-and-principal-investors/our-insights/why-private-equity-sees-life-and-annuities-as-an-enticing-form-of-permanent-capital

Graphic:

Excerpt:

Once they’ve acquired a book, firms can turn their attention to driving value. Building on our guidelines for closed-book value creation, owners have six levers that can collectively improve ROE by up to four to seven percentage points (exhibit):

  • Investment performance: optimization of the SAA and delivery of alpha within the SAA
  • Capital efficiency: optimization of balance-sheet exposures—for example, active management of duration gaps
  • Operations/IT improvement: reduction of operational costs through simplification and modernization
  • Technical excellence: improvement of profitability through price adjustments, such as reduced surplus sharing
  • Commercial uplift: cross-selling and upselling higher-margin products
  • Franchise growth: acquiring new blocks or new distribution channels

Most PE firms view the first lever, investment performance, as the main way to create value for the insurer, as well as for themselves. This lever will grow in importance if yields and spreads continue to decline. Leading firms typically have deep skills in core investment-management areas, such as strategic asset allocation, asset/liability management, risk management, and reporting, as well as access to leading investment teams that have delivered alpha.

Capital efficiency is also well-trod ground, and for private insurers it presents a greater opportunity given their different treatment under generally accepted accounting principles, (GAAP), enabling them to apply a longer-term lens and reduce the cost of hedging. However, most firms have yet to explore the other levers—operations and IT improvement, technical excellence, commercial uplift, and franchise growth—at scale. Across all these levers, advanced analytics can enable innovative, value-creating approaches.

Author(s): Ramnath Balasubramanian, Alex D’Amico, Rajiv Dattani, and Diego Mattone

Publication Date: 2 February 2022

Publication Site: McKinsey

Beware of Private Equity Gobbling Up Life Insurance and Annuity Companies

Mary Pat Campbell

Link: https://cepr.net/report/beware-of-private-equity-gobbling-up-life-insurance-and-annuity-companies/

Graphic:

Excerpt:

Private equity (PE) firms have had their eye on individual retirement savings since 2013 when they were first allowed to market directly to individuals. Pension funds already allocate workers’ retirement savings to PE firms, which use these assets to fund a range of risky equity and debt investments. Access to personal retirement savings, including IRAs and 401(k)s, would open up a huge new source of capital for PE.

PE firms’ first attempts to get a piece of these very sizable direct contribution assets were largely unsuccessful. More recently, however, they have turned to acquiring and/or managing life insurance and annuity assets. Some PE firms buy out life insurance and annuity companies, acquiring their assets. Others take a minority stake in a life insurance or annuity company in exchange for the right to manage all of the company’s assets. In both cases, the PE firm substantially increases assets under its management. They have also stepped-up efforts to recruit near-wealthy as well as wealthy investors, so-called retail investors, to allow PE firms to manage their assets. These activities have been a game changer for the largest PE firms. As Blackstone CEO Stephen Schwarzman put it as he lauded the firm’s third quarter 2021 performance, this quarter has been “the most consequential quarter [in history] . . . a defining moment in terms of our expansion into the vast retail and insurance markets.”1

Meanwhile, policyholders find that a PE firm now manages their retirement savings. This raises a major concern for individuals and government regulators: Given PE firms’ track record of failing to observe their duty of care as owners of Main Street companies as well as their poor fund performance in recent years,2 can they be trusted to protect the retirement savings of millions of Americans?

Author(s): EILEEN APPELBAUM

Publication Date: 13 January 2022

Publication Site: CEPR (Center for Economic and Policy Research)