Category: Investments

The Impact of Rising Rates on U.S. Insurer Investments

Mary Pat Campbell

Link: https://content.naic.org/sites/default/files/capital-markets-special-reports-impact-of-rising-rates.pdf

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As corporate bonds are mainly fixed rate, their relative value will decrease as floating rate investments
become more attractive with higher benchmark rates. That is, bond prices will fall as yields rise to make
them more attractive, given that their fixed-rate coupons will be lower. About half of insurer bond
investments are corporate bonds, and the vast majority of U.S. insurer corporate bond investments are
investment grade credit quality. From January 2022 to January 2023, the ICE Bank of America (BofA)
Investment Grade Corporate Bond Index, which measures the performance of investment grade
corporate debt, was down by about 14%.


Corporate bond yields have increased significantly since the beginning of 2022 with rising interest rates
and widening credit spreads. As of year-end 2022, investment grade and high-yield corporate bond
yields averaged 5.5% and 8.9%, respectively (refer to Table 1). Investment grade yields increased by
approximately 270 bps during 2022, while speculative-grade yields increased by about 370 bps.

Author(s): Jennifer Johnson and Michele Wong

Publication Date: 23 Feb 2023

Publication Site: NAIC Capital Markets Special Report

BlackRock, Fidelity Lose Out in $1 Trillion China Pension Market

Mary Pat Campbell

Link: https://finance.yahoo.com/news/blackrock-t-compete-free-advil-000000028.html

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China launched private pension plans for the first time last year and Beijing has ensured that domestic banks and fund managers win the vast majority of the new business in a market that may eventually grow to $1.7 trillion. Global companies including BlackRock and Fidelity International Ltd have been off to a slow start.

Given their tiny asset bases in China, most foreign money managers have so far been excluded from pilot trials in 36 cities, allowing banks like Industrial & Commercial Bank of China Ltd. and China Merchants Bank Co. to grab all the inflows. To cement their lead, the banks are offering everything from cash incentives to free ibuprofen for each new account.

“The first bite at the cake here won’t be easy” for foreign companies, said Zhou Yiqin, president of GuanShao Information Consulting Center, a financial regulations specialist.

While it’s still early days for the new pension scheme, the head start for domestic companies illustrates the daunting challenges for global firms eyeing a piece of China’s $60 trillion financial services sector. From mergers advice to stock sales and trading, Wall Street is struggling in a market that combines endless potential with stiff local competition and regulatory roadblocks.

China’s fledging private pension system is loaded with promise, as Beijing desperately tries to entice retirement savings to support an aging population. The number of people over 60 is expected to jump more than 50% by 2040, according to the World Health Organization. China’s population shrank last year for the first time in six decades.

To address the problem, China has launched three pension pillars. The first two — a compulsory state-backed plan and a voluntary corporate matching option — don’t come close to meeting the future needs of most pensioners. Savings in the government-led program covering urban employees may run out by 2032 and face a shortfall of more than 7 trillion yuan by 2035, according to Citic Securities Co. estimates.

Author(s): Bloomberg News

Publication Date: 28 Mar 2023

Publication Site: Yahoo Finance

What You Can Do To Force Your State Pension To Be Transparent About Its Investments

Mary Pat Campbell

Link: https://pensionwarriorsdwardsiedle.substack.com/p/what-you-can-do-to-force-your-state

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So what can you do to force your state or local government pension to be more transparent? That’s a question I asked Marc Dann, an attorney in private practice in Ohio and the former Attorney General of Ohio. (Dann is currently litigating a public records request on my behalf against the State Teachers Retirement System of Ohio.)

Say attorney Dann: “Refer to your state’s public records laws in making a request. Be as detailed and specific in the request as you can possibly be. Remember public records are only those records that may actually exist. For example, instead of asking for a list of all hedge, private equity or venture capital fund investments, ask for a prospectus, offering documents or reports provided to the pension by each investment fund (and name the investment funds—which are generally named on the state or local pension’s website).  Most states allow legal fee-shifting in public records lawsuits. So if the pension or fund resists, you may wish to consider bringing in a lawyer who agrees to be paid his fee from any recovery from the pension. Don’t forget to reach out to allied members of your state legislature or city council who can put pressure on the pensions to properly respond to the requests.”

Author(s): Edward Siedle

Publication Date: 22 Mar 2023

Publication Site: Pension Warriors on substack

Illinois Bill Would Give State Treasurer Voting Control On Pension Assets – Wirepoints

Mary Pat Campbell

Link: https://wirepoints.org/illinois-bill-would-give-state-treasurer-voting-control-on-pension-assets-wirepoints/

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Count on the Illinois legislature to find a way to further maim its crippled pension system.

Senate Bill 2152 would strip pension trustees of control over how to vote shareholder matters and vest the power in the state treasurer, currently, Michael Frerichs.

Still worse, the treasurer would then be bound to comply with the Illinois Sustainable Investing Act on how he votes on behalf of stocks owned by the pensions. That law requires officials like the treasurer to include “sustainability” considerations in how public money is invested. It’s basically a progressive policy agenda also known as ESG (Environmental, Social, Governance). It’s often ridiculed as “woke capitalism,” and includes the goals of zero fossil fuels, “equity,” gender and identity politics, and pretty much any other social justice fad in vogue.

….

Shareholders, including pensions, usually have the right to vote on key corporate issues such as board of director elections, rights offerings, mergers and acquisitions. For interests in private investment partnerships, which pensions also hold, voting powers include other major matters. If the bill becomes law, Frerichs, or whoever is treasurer, would hold a proxy for all those votes and execute ballots, voting as he alone decides — a huge concentration of power in one individual.

The bill would eliminate any fiduciary obligation to vote shares in a way that maximizes their value, diluting that goal with progressive’s political agenda. Today, pension managers are fiduciaries for pensioners – a strict, legal standard — but the treasurer would not be if the bill becomes law.

Author(s): Mark Glennon

Publication Date: 17 Mar 2023

Publication Site: Wirepoints

Ohio State Teachers Retirement System Had Massive Investment in Failed Bank

Mary Pat Campbell

Link: https://news.yahoo.com/ohio-state-teachers-retirement-system-200100935.html

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Already under fire for high pay despite big investment losses, the pension system for Ohio’s retired teachers lost between $27 million and $40 million when Silicon Valley Bank failed last weekend. That appears to be by far the biggest investment by a public pension system in the United States.

The losses follow a nearly $10 million loss last year when cryptocurrency platform FTX failed, according to the Ohio Retired Teachers Association, a group that represents pension system members.

The exact losses aren’t immediately known because Anthony Randazzo, executive director of pension watchdog Equable, said they were $39.3 million in a tweet. But pension system spokesman Dan Minnich said in an email, “As of last Wednesday, STRS Ohio held shares of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) worth $27.2 million.”

Author(s): Marty Schladen

Publication Date: 16 Mar 2023

Publication Site: Yahoo News

Yellen Said “No Bailout” But It’s a Huge Bailout of the Banking System

Mary Pat Campbell

Link: https://mishtalk.com/economics/yellen-said-no-bailout-but-its-a-huge-bailout-of-the-banking-system

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It won’t matter but I am pleased the Journal blasted Bill Ackman and venture investor David Sacks,  as “frantic panic spreaders“.

There’s more in the article about how Rohit Chopra, an Elizabeth Warren acolyte on the FDIC board, is hostile to bank mergers on ideological grounds, perhaps preventing a merger.

The Journal speculates how Biden might illegally act to guarantee all deposits or pressure House Speaker Kevin McCarthy.

….

Once again, the Fed kept interest rates too low, too long, encouraged speculation, then bailed out the banks.

Spare me the sap about this was a depositor bailout not a bank bailout. 

When you value assets at par so that banks don’t have losses, what the hell is it.

Author(s): Mike Shedlock

Publication Date: 12 Mar 2023

Publication Site: Mish Talk

U.S. Asset Managers Fear Federal Reserve Rate Hikes Will Cause Recession

Mary Pat Campbell

Link: https://www.ai-cio.com/news/u-s-asset-managers-fear-federal-reserve-rate-hikes-will-cause-recession/?oly_enc_id=2359H8978023B3G

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A significant portion of U.S.-based asset managers think further Federal Reserve rate hikes would lead to a recession or some disruption in global financial markets, according to research last month by London-based CoreData Research.

The greatest anticipated risk of continued Federal Reserve rate hikes is a possible recession. Overall, 59% of survey respondents took a neutral look at a recession scenario, that there would be “a moderate recession in 2023, followed by a gradual recovery as central bank policies bring down inflation over time,” while 14% opted for a bull case, defined as “a mild recession in the first half of 2023, followed by a strong recovery, falling inflation and rising equity markets [in the second half of 2023],” and 27% said they agree with a bear case, defined as a scenario in which “stagflation and a deep recession [occur] in 2023, accompanied by a 10-20% fall in the equity markets, as central banks struggle to defeat inflation which remains high.”

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Within fixed income, 36% of respondents said they are increasing allocations to investment-grade corporate bonds, the most of any fixed-income subtype, and 33% are set to increase allocations to government bonds. A further 23% of respondents said they plan to cut their exposures to emerging-market debt as a consequence of higher yields domestically.

Author(s): Dusty Hagedorn

Publication Date: 24 Feb 2023

Publication Site: ai-CIO

What the Madoff Series Left Out

Mary Pat Campbell

Link: https://reason.com/video/2023/02/21/what-the-madoff-series-left-out/

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And yet, nothing in the series leads the viewer to the conclusion that the SEC needed a bigger budget to catch Madoff. In fact, outsiders were sounding the alarm without access to government funding or regulatory muscle. In 2001, Barron’s journalist Erin Arvedlund reported that many Wall Street investors were suspicious that Madoff was engaged in foul play.

And the SEC received its first complaint that Madoff was running “an unregistered investment company” “offering ‘100%’ safe investments” in 1992. In 1999, a derivatives expert named Harry Markopolos, who worked at a competing firm, started to alert the SEC that Madoff’s investment returns were virtually impossible. In 2005, Markopolos sent the agency an infamous 25-page memo explaining why “The World’s Largest Hedge Fund is a Fraud.” The SEC opened an investigation in 2006, and then closed it the following year because the “uncovered violations” were “remedied” and “those violations were not so serious as to warrant an enforcement action.”

So how is this tale of epic failure on the part of a government agency the fault of deregulation?

Instead of making lazy allusions to the evils of free market capitalism, to better understand the lessons of the Madoff saga, director Joe Berlinger should have consulted the work of the free market economist George Stigler, who won the Nobel Prize in part for his work on “regulatory capture.”

Author(s): ZACH WEISSMUELLER AND DANIELLE THOMPSON

Publication Date: 21 Feb 2023

Publication Site: Reason

EBSA Secretary Defends ESG Rule as Legislative, Litigation Battles Continue

Mary Pat Campbell

Link: https://www.ai-cio.com/news/ebsa-secretary-defends-esg-rule-as-legislative-litigation-battles-continue/

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The Department of Labor’s assistant secretary of labor for employee benefits security, Lisa Gomez, defended the DOL’s final rule allowing the consideration of ESG factors in retirement plan investments at a webinar hosted Monday by Ceres, a sustainability advocate.

The rule, which took effect on January 30, permits, but does not require, the use of ESG considerations in investment selection by retirement plan fiduciaries. There is a pending lawsuit in Texas challenging the legality of the rule.

Gomez explained that this rule is “not a per se requirement” to use ESG and clarifies that ESG factors may be considered as part of a fiduciary’s ordinary risk-return analysis. She also explained that this new rule does not allow fiduciaries to sacrifice the financial health of a plan to pursue other goals: A fiduciary may consider the risks and opportunities of climate change and other ESG factors.

Gomez dubbed the rule “a return to neutrality.”

According to Gomez, the previous rule, passed during the administration of President Donald Trump, which required only “pecuniary factors” to be used in investment selection, had a “chilling effect” on the consideration of ESG factors. Gomez said the word “pecuniary” neither appears in the text of the Employee Retirement Income Security Act, the governing statute for both rules, nor does it occupy a “long-standing place in employee benefits law.”

Gomez briefly discussed one of the more nebulous provisions of the new rule when she said participant preferences for investments can be considered in menu selection on the grounds that it can increase plan participation and deferral rates, thereby increasing retirement security. She did not comment on how fiduciaries should determine adequate participant interest or how much economic gain could be compromised in exchange for increased participation, if any.

Eric Pitt, a climate finance consultant at Ceres who moderated the webinar, asked Gomez how a fiduciary should consider a hypothetical ESG large-cap stock fund for a plan menu: Should the fiduciary compare it to other similar ESG funds or the entire universe of large-cap funds? Gomez answered that there is no special treatment for ESG funds, and a fiduciary should look generally at the risk and return for any and all large-cap equity funds available, whether they use ESG considerations or not.

Despite the branding of the rule as neutral, Republicans in Congress have increased their organized opposition to the use of ESG considerations in retirement-plan investing.

Representative Patrick McHenry, R-North Carolina, chairman of the House Financial Services Committee, announced the creation of a “Republican ESG working group” on Friday. The purpose of the working group is to “combat the threat to our capital markets posed by those on the far-left pushing environmental, social, and governance (ESG) proposals.”

Author(s): Paul Mullholland

Publication Date: 6 Feb 2023

Publication Site: ai-CIO

Public Pension Funding Status Rose in 2022, NCPERS Says

Mary Pat Campbell

Link: https://www.ai-cio.com/news/public-pension-funding-status-rose-in-2022-ncpers-says/

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Capital markets had a tough time in 2022, but public pension funds managed to increase their funded status, according to a report from the National Conference on Public Employee Retirement Systems

The funded ratio at public pension funds increased to 77.8% last year, compared with 74.7% in 2021, per a survey of almost 200 funds conducted by NCPERS, the largest trade association for public funds in the U.S. and Canada, in partnership with Cobalt Community Research.

The vast majority of survey respondents, 92%, represent defined benefit plans, 8% defined contribution plans, 10% combination plans and 5% cash balance plans. The total exceeds 100% because of multiple responses, according to NCPERS.

Public pension programs scored an average one-year return of around 11.4%. By contrast, the S&P 500 was down around 19% and the Bloomberg US Agg, which tracks bonds, was off 13% in 2022. Heavy concentration in real estate and private equity were the key to the funds’ outperformance, the report says.

The study’s findings highlight public pensions’ “resiliency in the face of volatile markets, rising interest rates, and disruption in the workforce during the COVID-19 pandemic,” said Hank Kim, NCPERS executive director and general counsel, in a statement. “It’s clear that public pensions remain dedicated to maximizing returns while managing risks in order to efficiently deliver retirement benefits to public servants all over the country.”

Higher contribution income helped. Investment returns were the largest component of the gains, accounting for slightly more than two-thirds of them, but the stronger average member and employer contributions also played a role. Each rose by one percentage point, to 9% and 24%, respectively.

Author(s): Larry Light

Publication Date: 6 Feb 2023

Publication Site: ai-CIO

Appeals panel agrees IL police and firefighter pension consolidation doesn’t violate state constitution

Mary Pat Campbell

Link: https://cookcountyrecord.com/stories/639342824-appeals-panel-agrees-il-police-and-firefighter-pension-consolidation-doesn-t-violate-state-constitution?utm_source=Wirepoints+Newsletter&utm_campaign=55b5f7633f-RSS_EMAIL_CAMPAIGN&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_895ee9abf9-55b5f7633f-30506353#new_tab

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A state appeals panel has affirmed a ruling that the Illinois state constitution holds no barrier to a law consolidating hundreds of local police and firefighter pension boards into two statewide funds.

In December 2019, Gov. JB Pritzker signed Senate Bill 1000, which amended the Illinois Pension Code to create the Police Officers’ Pension Investment Fund and the Firefighters’ Pension Investment Fund, built through the consolidation of more than 650 otherwise independent downstate and suburban funds.

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Although some union leaders supported the move, dozens of police and firefighter pension boards and individual members sued the state and the new funds to stop the consolidation. Kane County Circuit Court Judge Robert Villa granted summary judgement to the state, prompting an appeal to the Illinois Second District Appellate Court.

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Although the panel agreed the protection clause covers more than just the payment of pension money, it said past Illinois Supreme Court rulings invoking the clause involved benefits that “directly impacted the participants’ eventual pension benefit,” McLaren wrote. But being able to vote for board members, or have a local board control investments, he added, “is not of the same nature and essentiality as the ability to participate in the fund, accumulate credited time, or receive health care, disability and life insurance coverage.”

“Voting for the local board is, at best, ancillary to a participant’s receipt of the pension payment and other assets,” McLaren continued. “The local boards were entrusted with investing the contributions so that payments could be made to participants. However, choosing who invests funds does not guarantee a particular outcome for benefit payments. The local boards also did not have any say in the actual method of funding; contribution requirements were set in the Pension Code.”

Author(s): Scott Holland

Publication Date: 7 Feb 2023

Publication Site: Cook County Record