Category: Economic

Big Changes in Fed Interest Rate Cut Expectations This Year and Next

Mary Pat Campbell

Link: https://mishtalk.com/economics/big-changes-in-fed-interest-rate-cut-expectations-this-year-and-next/

Graphic:

Excerpt:

I captured rate cut expectations before and after the Friday jobs reports. Let’s take a look.

The current rate is 5.25%-5.50% effectively 5.37%.

  • Sep 2024: -0.13 PP to 4.94% (-0.43 PP from current) 1.7 quarter-point cuts
  • Nov 2024: -0.30 PP to 4.53% (-0.83 PP from current) 3.3 quarter-point cuts
  • Dec 2024: -0.34 PP to 4.21% (-1.16 PP from current) 4.6 quarter-point cuts
  • Jan 2025: -0.36 PP to 3.98% (-1.39 PP from current) 5.6 quarter-point cuts
  • Mar 2025: -0.38 PP to 3.71% (-1.66 PP from current) 6.6 quarter-point cuts

Those odds were smack in the middle of volatility.

The CME website now shows data as of August 1 (no change on Friday), so they have something messed up.

The chart above reflects the huge volatility we saw in bond yields on Friday.

….

Are too many cuts priced in or not enough?

That’s the question. I expect two cuts in September. Looking out to next year, I think too many cuts are priced in.

Author(s): Mike Shedlock

Publication Date: 3 Aug 2024

Publication Site: Mish Talk

The Housing Bubble Keeps Expanding, Case-Shiller Home Prices Hit New Record

Mary Pat Campbell

Link: https://mishtalk.com/economics/the-housing-bubble-keeps-expanding-case-shiller-home-prices-hit-new-record/

Graphic:

Excerpt:

Housing affordability continues to soar out of reach of most buyers. Not only are prices at a new record level, mortgage rates remain close to 7.0 percent.

Chart Notes

  • Case-Shiller measures repeat sales of the same price over time. It is the best measure of price, but it lags. Current data is as of May which reflects sales 1-3 months prior.
  • The CPI, OER, and Rent of Primary Residence are all from the BLS.
  • OER stands for Owners’ Equivalent Rent. It is the rent one would pay if someone was renting instead of paying a mortgage.

Author(s): Mike Shedlock (Mish)

Publication Date: 30 July 2024

Publication Site: MishTalk

IRS: ILLINOIS LOSES $9.9B IN INCOME AS 87,311 RESIDENTS MOVE OUT IN 2022

Mary Pat Campbell

Link: https://www.illinoispolicy.org/irs-illinois-loses-9-9b-in-income-as-87311-residents-move-out-in-2022/

Graphic:

Excerpt:

New data shows $9.9 billion flowed from Illinois to other states because people moved out in 2022. Most of those leaving earned $100,000 or more.

When Illinoisans move away, they take their money with them: $9.9 billion in 2022, according to new data from the Internal Revenue Service.

Tax returns for 2021 and 2022 show Illinois lost 86,693 individuals and $9.9 billion because of outmigration. Most of them were high-income Illinoisans.

Author(s): Bryce Hill

Publication Date: 1 July 2024

Publication Site: Illinois Policy Institute