Category: Credit risk

Bidenomics Takes Root in Europe’s Economically Fragile South

Mary Pat Campbell

Link: https://www.wsj.com/articles/bidenomics-takes-root-in-europes-economically-fragile-south-11620039617

Excerpt:

Since the 1990s, Italian leaders have tried to overhaul the sclerotic economy while also running tight budgets. Mr. Draghi is the first in decades who can deploy massive fiscal firepower to help.

Italy’s economy has rarely grown by more than 1% annually over the past quarter-century. The economy has never fully recovered from the global financial crisis and subsequent eurozone crisis, and slumped by another 9% in 2020 amid the pandemic and strict lockdowns.

Germany, France and other EU countries backed the recovery fund mainly for fear that Italy and Southern Europe could get stuck in another deep economic slump that once again tests the cohesion and survival of the eurozone.

….

Most of Greece’s debt is in bailout loans from the rest of the eurozone, with no repayments due for many years, making another Greek debt crisis unlikely for a long time.

Author(s): Giovanni Legorano

Publication Date: 3 May 2021

Publication Site: Wall Street Journal

Moody’s: New Chicago firefighter pension law is “credit negative”

Mary Pat Campbell

Link: https://capitolfax.com/2021/04/12/moodys-new-chicago-firefighter-pension-law-is-credit-negative/

Excerpt:

House Bill 2451 eliminates a formula based on birth date that provided lower pension COLAs to certain retired firefighters. As a result of the new law, all retirees that are considered “Tier 1” members of the FABF will now receive a 3% COLA annually on their pension, with no cumulative cap. Before House Bill 2451, retired firefighters in Tier 1 would have received a 1.5% COLA, subject to a 30% cumulative cap, if born on or after January 1, 1966. Members of the FABF receive Tier 1 benefits if hired before January 1, 2011, while those hired on or after January 1, 2011 receive less generous Tier 2 pension benefits.

One potentially advantageous effect of House Bill 2451 is that it forces immediate recognition of 3% COLAs for Tier 1 members. The state law governing Chicago firefighter pension COLAs has been amended on several occasions in the past to alter the birth date that would determine eligibility of a Tier 1 retiree for a 3% COLA versus a 1.5% COLA. The most recent such change occurred in 2016, when the law was updated to provide a 3% COLA to all Tier 1 firefighters born before January 1, 1966, compared to January 1, 1955, before the change. That change, in addition to several other provisions, triggered a roughly $227 million (4.5%) increase to the actuarial accrued liability reported by the FABF as of the December 2016 actuarial snapshot.

Author(s): Rich Miller

Publication Date: 12 April 2021

Publication Site: Capitol Fax

The End of Joe Biden’s Student Debt Prison May Be in Sight

Mary Pat Campbell

Link: https://jacobinmag.com/2021/04/biden-student-debt-loan-forgiveness-bankruptcy

Excerpt:

Bankruptcy courts have not been friendly to student borrowers. That’s at least partly attributable to Biden. In 2005, “the senator from MBNA,” so named for his close relationship with the credit card company that was also his largest donor, was one of eighteen Senate Democrats who backed a successful Republican-led bankruptcy reform bill that stripped private student loans of bankruptcy protection amid an explosion of private loan debt.

“He is a zealous advocate on behalf of one of his biggest contributors — the financial services industry,” Senator Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) said of Biden at the time.

For his part, Biden argued the law was necessary to prevent abuse of the system by borrowers who could afford to repay some of their debt. He and other supporters of the bankruptcy bill claimed the legislation would enable private lenders to lower costs for people seeking credit. But both arguments were ultimately proven wrong — abuse was minimal, and interest rates in general did not go down. Instead, the law resulted in a system that leaves borrowers with few options for relief.

Author(s): Walker Bragman

Publication Date: 8 April 2021

Publication Site: Jacobin Magazine

Bricks Without Straw?

Mary Pat Campbell

Link: https://www.rstreet.org/2021/03/30/bricks-without-straw/

Excerpt:

Credit analytics firm FICO posits that the reason for the correlation of credit history and claim probability is that “individuals who closely and cautiously monitor and manage their finances tend to also take better care of their cars and homes and are, generally, more diligent in their risk management habits.” Because such individuals are found across demographic classifications, the discrimination argument becomes hard to uphold.

If insurers find that credit scores have bearing on accident propensity, insurers should be allowed to use them. Preventing insurers from deploying basic tools required to generate appropriate risk-adjusted prices leads to mispricing of risk, harming insurance buyers as well as insurers. What is more, such deprivation leads to unintended negative consequences—an unfair socialization of risk, leaving customers either overcharged or undercharged. Executive fiat prohibiting insurers from accessing the tools of their trade is tantamount to Pharaoh ordering the Israelites of old to make bricks without straw. Bad business, bad policy.

Author(s): Jerry Theodorou

Publication Date: 30 March 2021

Publication Site: R Street

Moody’s warns pension benefit increase for Chicago firefighters a ‘credit negative’ – Quicktake

Mary Pat Campbell
Moody’s warns pension benefit increase for Chicago firefighters a ‘credit negative’ – Quicktake

Graphic:

Excerpt:

Anybody who’s been following Chicago knows the last thing the city needs is more debt. Chicagoans are being swamped by pension debts, already the biggest per-capita burden of any major city in the country. By signing the new legislation into law, Pritzker has shoved more debt onto ordinary Chicagoans.

Not surprisingly, Moody’s has called the action “credit negative…because it will cause the city’s reported unfunded pension liabilities, and thus its annual contribution requirements, to rise.”

…..

Two important facts to note about the city’s pension shortfalls. First, Chicago officially says its four city-run pension funds – police, fire, municipal and laborers – are short by some $31 billion. But Moody’s puts the number at nearly $47 billion using more realistic, market-based assumptions. 

Second, those debt numbers don’t include the Chicago Public Schools. When you add its $23 billion (Moody’s, 2018) pension shortfall, the total burden on Chicagoans for Chicago-only debts jumps to $70 billion. Divvy that between Chicago’s 1.04 million households and you’re talking about $67,000 in debt each. And that number far underestimates the real household burden considering nearly 20 percent of the city’s population don’t have the means to contribute a dime to that pension shortfall. 

Publication Date: 10 April 2021

Publication Site: Wirepoints

Office of Financial Research Annual Report to Congress, 2020

Mary Pat Campbell

Link: https://www.financialresearch.gov/annual-reports/files/OFR-Annual-Report-2020.pdf

Graphic:

Excerpt:

There remains a striking contrast between the quick recovery of financial markets and the slower recovery of the economy, which experienced the highest unemployment rate since World War II (see Figures 5 and 6). The possibility remains for heavy ongoing credit losses and failures. Consumer spending and business investment face pervasive uncertainty about the course of the pandemic and its consequences.

Date Accessed: 6 April 2021

Publication Site: Office of Financial Research

Federal Reserve to End Emergency Capital Relief for Big Banks

Mary Pat Campbell

Link: https://www.wsj.com/articles/federal-reserve-to-end-emergency-capital-relief-for-big-banks-11616158811

Excerpt:

The Federal Reserve said it was ending a yearlong reprieve that had eased capital requirements for big banks, disappointing Wall Street firms that had lobbied for an extension.

Friday’s decision means banks will lose the temporary ability to exclude Treasurys and deposits held at the central bank from lenders’ so-called supplementary leverage ratio. The ratio measures capital — funds that banks raise from investors, earn through profits and use to absorb losses — as a percentage of loans and other assets. Without the exclusion, Treasurys and deposits count as assets. That will likely force banks to hold more capital or reduce their holdings of those assets, both of which could ripple through markets.

Analysts have been keying on the issue, which is widely viewed on Wall Street as carrying potential implications for markets from bonds to stocks to commodities.

Author(s): Andrew Ackerman, David Benoit

Publication Date: 19 March 2021

Publication Site: Wall Street Journal

Aldermen Vow to Keep Pressure on Banks that Hold the City’s Cash to Lend Equitably

Mary Pat Campbell

Link: https://news.wttw.com/2021/03/22/aldermen-vow-keep-pressure-banks-hold-city-s-cash-lend-equitably#new_tab

Excerpt:

Aldermen endorsed a measure Monday that would allow the city to expand the number of banks authorized to hold its cash — even as city officials vowed to keep pressuring financial institutions to do a better job lending to Black and Latino Chicagoans.

Led by Ald. Harry Osterman (48th Ward), the chair of the City Council’s Housing Committee, and Treasurer Melissa Conyears-Ervin, city officials plan to form a task force and a working group to draft new requirements for banks to meet if they want to keep the city’s lucrative business.

Author(s): Heather Cherone

Publication Date: 22 March 2021

Publication Site: WTTW News

China’s Youthful, Debt-Fueled Spending Spree Sparks a Reckoning

Mary Pat Campbell

Link: https://www.wsj.com/articles/chinas-youthful-debt-fueled-spending-spree-sparks-a-reckoning-11615631400

Excerpt:

Chinese regulators attempting to rein in Ant Group Co. and a swelling online-lending industry have a target in their sights: the excessive, debt-fueled lifestyles of the country’s youth.

Leading up to last year’s coronavirus pandemic, a new generation of tech-savvy and free-spending citizens helped power rising consumption, a growing driver of China’s economy.

Many used short-term loans to pay for expenses such as prestige cosmetics, electronic gadgets and costly restaurant meals. They found credit easy to obtain, thanks to Ant and other Chinese financial-technology companies that provided unsecured loans to millions of people who didn’t have bank-issued credit cards. In 2019, online loans accounted for as much as half of short-term consumer loans in China, according to estimates from Fitch Ratings.

Now, new financial regulations are forcing lenders to reassess their business strategies and have sparked a reckoning about the American-style borrowing and spending habits of China’s younger population. Starting in 2022, Ant and its peers will have to fund at least 30% of the loans they make together with banks, a rule designed to make online lenders bear more risk.

Author(s): Xie Yu

Publication Date: 13 March 2021

Publication Site: Wall Street Journal

Behind Greensill’s Collapse: Detour Into Risky Loans

Mary Pat Campbell

Link: https://www.wsj.com/articles/behind-greensills-collapse-detour-into-risky-loans-11615611953

Excerpt:

Behind Mr. Greensill’s failure: The business went beyond the scope of what it initially set out to do. Many of Greensill’s loans went to a small circle of borrowers close to Mr. Greensill, as well as acquaintances and his biggest outside backers.

A Wall Street Journal review of internal Greensill records, including board minutes and emails, along with interviews with more than a dozen people familiar with Greensill’s business, reveals how the company obscured its riskier loans behind a safe but barely profitable supply-chain finance business.

Greensill took on bigger, riskier long-term loans. In some cases, the loans were given other names before they were sold on to investors in the Credit Suisse funds, obscuring who the borrower was or the type of loan, the Journal found.

Author(s): Duncan Mavin, Julie Steinberg

Publication Date: 13 March 2021

Publication Site: Wall Street Journal

Fed Policy Is Smothering Private Lending

Mary Pat Campbell

Link: https://www.wsj.com/articles/fed-policy-is-smothering-private-lending-11615250626

Excerpt:

The 25 largest U.S. banks currently hold 45.7% of their assets in loans and leases, according to Fed data released Friday, down from 54.1% this time last year. Meantime, their year-over-year holdings of Treasury and agency securities increased 33.5%. This reflects more-stringent borrowing standards and diminished loan demand. But it also reveals a subtle yet persistent change in how banks operate.

Banks have pulled back from making risky loans in favor of engaging more directly with the Fed — avoiding the type of lending that spawned stricter regulatory standards after 2008 while readily accommodating the Fed’s expressed satisfaction with an “ample reserves” regime. Bank lending to small businesses has remained low throughout the postcrisis years, with the largest declines in small-business lending at large banks, as shown in a 2018 report commissioned by the Small Business Administration.

The switch is understandable. The cost of regulatory compliance is a huge disincentive for banks, and selling government-backed securities to the Fed and piling up reserves can turn out to be a profitable business model.

Author(s): Judy Shelton

Publication Date: 8 March 2021

Publication Site: Wall Street Journal

America Went on a Borrowing Binge, but Banks Were Left Out

Mary Pat Campbell

Link: https://www.wsj.com/articles/america-went-on-a-borrowing-binge-but-banks-were-left-out-11612953008

Excerpt:

Large U.S. lenders saw their loan books shrink in 2020 for the first time in more than a decade, according to an analysis of Federal Reserve data by Jason Goldberg, a banking analyst at Barclays. The 0.5% drop was just the second decline in 28 years.

Bank of America Corp.’s loans and leases dropped by 5.7%. Citigroup Inc.’s loans dropped by 3.4% and Wells Fargo & Co.’s shrank by 7.8%. Among the biggest four banks, only JPMorgan Chase & Co. had more loans at the end of the year than the start.

Lenders are flush with cash that they want to put to use, and executives say they are hopeful loan growth will pick up in 2021. Brisk lending typically suggests there is enough momentum in the economy to give companies and consumers the confidence to borrow. But the current weakness suggests questions remain about the vigor of the economic recovery.

Author(s): Ben Eisen

Publication Date: 10 February 2021

Publication Site: WSJ