Link: https://www.brookings.edu/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/1c_Rauh.pdf
Graphic:
Excerpt:
Main Comments
• Stabilization goal is reasonable to consider
• However, public sector’s approach to funding with risk assets creates
additional issues for this type of debt (unfunded pension liabilities)
relative to government bonds
• Instability due to market risk isn’t in the model, because the model is
deterministic: no distribution of possible outcomes
➢ Higher expected return you target, the greater the distribution of outcomes
• Only meaningful scenario is r=d=0% → fiscal adjustment is 14.9% of
payroll vs. current 29%. So a 51% increase.
➢ I will provide some reasons I think this might still be too low
Author(s): Joshua Rauh
Publication Date: 25 March 2021
Publication Site: Brookings