A Tale of Data Visualization: Inspiration, Imitation, and Tribute

Link: https://jschwabish.substack.com/p/a-tale-of-data-visualization-inspiration

Graphic:

Excerpt:

Let’s look at another set of paired charts. These two graphs, one from the EC just last week and the other from Bloomberg in 2014, both use a series of tall and narrow slope charts to compare two values.

In this case, I wouldn’t argue that the EC should attribute Bloomberg’s—after all, they are just slope charts, the topics are different, and the overall design is different. As some other people pointed on out LinkedIn, a designer may begin creating with an echo of another design in their head but not be able pinpoint it (not to mention that some projects no longer live online).

The question remains: where do we draw the line between inspiration and recreation? Is 13 years long enough for a graphic to enter the “pantheon” of visualization techniques, thereby no longer requiring attribution? Or does the uniqueness of the Scarr piece mean that it should always be credited when reused or adapted?

It’s a tough question, and one without an easy answer. It’s clear from Sebastian’s response that he was inspired by Scarr’s original, so my preference would have been to include a citation or reference. But honestly, I’m not even sure where the attribution should go! Maybe under the Source line, or maybe in the Created by line that appears not in the graph but in the newsletter email itself? More questions without clear answers.

In the end, it’s about respecting the creative process. As creators, we all draw from what’s come before us—whether consciously or subconsciously. Acknowledging the work that inspires us not only gives credit where it’s due but also fosters a culture of openness and honesty. It shows respect for our peers and for the community as a whole.

I want to be very clear: this discussion in no way diminishes the fabulous work from The European Correspondent team. I have very much been enjoying their work and I love how they are taking chances with their design decisions, trying new designs and graph types, and being inspired by what people have created before! I’ve been impressed with their ability to distill complex data into short, engaging stories and the near-daily innovative and interesting graphs and charts. I find myself bookmarking two or three of their graphs each week, and adding them to my dataviz catalog. I highly recommend you subscribe to their newsletter. Even if you’re not keenly interested in European news, they are doing some great data visualization work on an almost daily basis, no small feat on its own.

Author(s): Jon Schwabish

Publication Date: 27 Aug 2024

Publication Site: PolicyViz newsletter at substack

Actuarial ChatBots

Link: https://riskviews.wordpress.com/actuarial-chatbots/

Graphic:

Excerpt:

Here are several examples of ChatBots and other AI applications for actuaries to try.

Answers that you might get from a general AI LLM such as ChatGPT may or may not correctly represent the latest thinking in actuarial science. These chatBots make an effort to educate the LLM with actuarial or other pertinent literature so that you can get better informed answers.

But, you need to be a critical user. Please be careful with the responses that you get from these ChatBots and let us know if you find any issues. This is still early days for the use of AI in actuarial practice and we need to learn from our experiences and move forward.

Note from meep: there are multiple Apps/Bots linked from the main site.

Author(s): David Ingram

Publication Date: accessed 28 Aug 2024

Publication Site: Risk Views

U.S. Deaths Still 7% Over Pre-COVID Norm in Q2

Link:https://www.thinkadvisor.com/2024/08/12/u-s-deaths-still-7-over-pre-covid-norm-in-q2/

Excerpt:

What You Need to Know

  • General-population mortality trends may differ from trends for people with life insurance and annuities.
  • The total number of first-half deaths was about 110,000 higher than the first six months of 2019.
  • One group would like to see life insurers use voluntary screening tests to learn more about mortality trends.

Author(s): Allison Bell

Publication Date: 12 Aug 2024

Publication Site: Think Advisor

Trends of Heat-Related Deaths in the US, 1999-2023

Link: https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2822854?guestAccessKey=53b50a89-0945-4117-a662-5e1e1484ebce&utm_source=For_The_Media&utm_medium=referral&utm_campaign=ftm_links&utm_content=tfl&utm_term=082624

Graphic:



Excerpt:

We analyzed all deaths from 1999 to 2023 in which the International Statistical Classification of Diseases and Related Health Problems, 10th Revision code was P81 (environmental hyperthermia of newborn), T67 (effects of heat and light), or X30 (exposure to excessive natural heat) as either the underlying cause or as a contributing cause of death, as recorded in the Multiple Cause of Death file. Data were accessed through the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s WONDER platform,5 which combines death counts with population estimates produced by the US Census Bureau to calculate mortality rates. For each year, we extracted age-adjusted mortality rates (AAMRs) per 100 000 person-years for heat-related deaths. The AAMR accounts for differences due to age structures, allowing direct comparisons across time. The approach of analyzing cause-specific mortality rates rather than excess mortality is warranted because the excess mortality methodology is subject to confounding from the COVID-19 pandemic from 2020 to 2023. This study used publicly available, deidentified aggregate data; thus, it was not considered human subjects research.

Joinpoint version 5.2.0 (National Cancer Institute) regression6 was used to analyze AAMRs to assess trends and determine elbow points where the trend began to shift to a new trajectory. Results of joinpoint analyses are reported as average annual percentage change (AAPC) in rates with 95% CIs. Statistical significance was defined as 2-sided P < .05. Data were visualized with R version 4.2.2 (R Foundation for Statistical Computing).

Results

From 1999 to 2023, 21 518 deaths were recorded as heat-related underlying or contributing cause of death, with an AAMR of 0.26 per 100 000 person-years (95% CI, 0.24-0.27) (Table). The number of heat-related deaths increased from 1069 (AAMR = 0.38; 95% CI, 0.36-0.40) in 1999 to 2325 (AAMR = 0.62; 95% CI, 0.60-0.65) in 2023, a 117% increase in the number of heat-related deaths and a 63% increase in the AAMR. The lowest number of heat-related deaths in the study period was 311 in 2004, whereas the highest, 2325, was in 2023.

Results of the joinpoint trend analysis showed that during the entire period, the AAMR increased by 3.6% per year (AAPC = 3.6%; 95% CI, 0.1%-7.2%; P = .04) from 1999 to 2023 (Figure). The number of heat-related deaths and AAMR showed year-to-year variability, with spikes in 2006 and 2011, before showing steady increases after 2016. Joinpoint results showed a nonsignificant decrease of 1.4% per year from 1999 to 2016 (AAPC = −1.4%; 95% CI, −4.7% to 2.1%; P = .42), followed by a significant increase of 16.8% per year in the AAMR from 2016 to 2023 (AAPC = 16.8%; 95% CI, 6.4%-28.2%; P = .002).

Author(s): Jeffrey T. Howard, PhD1; Nicole Androne, MS1; Karl C. Alcover, PhD2; et al

Publication Date:  Published online August 26, 2024
`
Publication Site: JAMA Network

doi:10.1001/jama.2024.16386

Heat killed a record number of Americans last year

Link: https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/health/2024/08/26/2023-heat-deaths-record-number/74937063007/

Excerpt:

More Americans died from heat in 2023 than any year in over two decades of records, according to the findings published Monday. Last year was also the globe’s hottest year on record, the latest grim milestone in a warming trend fueled by climate change.

The study, published in the American Medical Association journal JAMA, found that 2,325 people died from heat in 2023. Researchers admit that number is likely an undercount. The research adjusted for a growing and aging U.S. population, and found the death toll was still staggering.

….

Howard – along with researchers from the Uniformed Services University of the Health Sciences, in Maryland, and Pennsylvania State University – examined death certificate data between 1999 and 2023. Deaths were counted if heat was listed as an underlying or contributing cause of death.

Reported deaths remained relatively flat until around 2016, when the number of people dying began increasing, in what Howard, who studies health effects from extreme weather, calls a “hockey stick.” The hockey stick analogy has been used to describe warming global temperatures caused by climate change, where temperatures have swooped upward at alarming rates in recent years. 

Howard’s study suggests the human toll follows the same outline. An important indicator is age-adjusted deaths per 100,000 people. That heat-related death rate has increased dramatically compared to the early 2000s, regardless of age or population size.

The upward trajectory appears to be sharpening recently. In 2022, 1,722 people died at an adjusted rate of 0.47. But 2023 saw 603 more deaths than the previous year, with an adjusted rate of 0.63, the highest on record.

Deaths weren’t evenly spread nationally. In an interview, Howard said deaths were overwhelmingly concentrated in traditionally hot regions: Arizona, California, Nevada and Texas.

The study is limited in how local governments classify heat-related deaths, which could mean the actual number of deaths is an undercount. It’s also potentially skewed as more people become aware of the fatal risks of heat. The study didn’t break down vulnerable groups. For example, people without air conditioning, those who live or work outdoors, and people with underlying health conditions, are all at greater risk of serious illness or death from heat.

Author(s): Eduardo Cuevas and Dinah Voyles Pulver

Publication Date: 26 Aug 2024

Publication Site: USA Today

Comments on Request for Information on Uses, Opportunities, and Risks of Artificial Intelligence in the Financial Services Sector

Link: https://www.regulations.gov/document/TREAS-DO-2024-0011-0001/comment

Description:

Publicly available comments on Dept of Treasury’s request for information on AI use, opportunities & risk in financial services sector.

Example: https://www.regulations.gov/comment/TREAS-DO-2024-0011-0010 — comment from ACLI

The NAIC has developed its definition of AI, and the insurance industry has responded with
information in accordance with that definition. Any definition developed by Treasury should
align with, or at a minimum not conflict with, definitions of AI in existing regulatory
frameworks for financial institutions.

The Treasury definition of AI should reflect the following:
o Definitions should be tailored to the different types of AI and the use cases and
risks they pose. The definition used in this RFI is similar to an outdated definition put
forth by the Organization for Economic Coordination and Development (OECD),
which could be narrowed for specific use cases (e.g., tiering of risks under the EU
framework).
o There are also distinctions between generative AI used to make decisions, without
ultimately including human input or intervention, and AI used with human decisionmaking being absolute or the usage being solely for internal efficiencies and
therefore not impactful for customers.
o AI covers a broad range of predictive modeling techniques that would otherwise not
be considered Artificial Intelligence. A refinement to the definition that classifies AI
as machine learning systems that utilize artificial neural networks to make
predictions may be more appropriate.
o The definition of AI should exclude simpler computation tasks that companies have
been using for a long time.

Author(s): Various

Publication Date: accessed 9 Aug 2024

Publication Site: Regulations.gov

Mortality in the United States — Provisional Data, 2023

Link: https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/73/wr/mm7331a1.htm?s_cid=mm7331a1_w

Graphic:

FIGURE 1Provisional* number of COVID-19–associated deaths and other deaths and percentage of deaths associated with COVID-19, by week of death — National Vital Statistics System, United States, 2023

* National Vital Statistics System provisional data for 2023 are incomplete. Data from December 2023 are less complete because of reporting lags. These data exclude deaths that occurred in the United States among residents of U.S. territories and foreign countries.

 Deaths with confirmed or presumed COVID-19 as an underlying or contributing cause of death, with International Classification of Diseases, Tenth Revision code U07.1.

Excerpt:

Abstract

Final annual mortality data from the National Vital Statistics System for a given year are typically released 11 months after the end of the calendar year. Provisional data, which are based on preliminary death certificate data, provide an early estimate of deaths before the release of final data. In 2023, a provisional total of 3,090,582 deaths occurred in the United States. The age-adjusted death rate per 100,000 population was 884.2 among males and 632.8 among females; the overall rate, 750.4, was 6.1% lower than in 2022 (798.8). The overall rate decreased for all age groups. Overall age-adjusted death rates in 2023 were lowest among non-Hispanic multiracial (352.1) and highest among non-Hispanic Black or African American persons (924.3). The leading causes of death were heart disease, cancer, and unintentional injury. The number of deaths from COVID-19 (76,446) was 68.9% lower than in 2022 (245,614). Provisional death estimates provide an early signal about shifts in mortality trends. Timely and actionable data can guide public health policies and interventions for populations experiencing higher mortality.

Author(s): Farida B. Ahmad, MPH1; Jodi A. Cisewski, MPH1; Robert N. Anderson, PhD

Publication Date: 8 Aug 2024

Publication Site: CDC, MMWR Morbidity/Mortality Weekly Report

Suggested citation for this article: Ahmad FB, Cisewski JA, Anderson RN. Mortality in the United States — Provisional Data, 2023. MMWR Morb Mortal Wkly Rep 2024;73:677–681. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.15585/mmwr.mm7331a1