Month: February 2024

Eyes on the road: Automated speed cameras get a fresh look as traffic deaths mount

Mary Pat Campbell

Link:https://www.npr.org/2024/02/16/1231362802/automated-speed-cameras-traffic-fatalities

Excerpt:

Richmond joins a growing list of cities turning to speed cameras. New laws in California and Pennsylvania will allow them in major cities where they’ve long been blocked.

Traffic fatalities have risen sharply over the past decade, and safety advocates around the country are desperately searching for anything that will get drivers to slow down. But critics say speed cameras can be a financial burden on those who are least able to pay.

Still, they’ve earned the endorsement of prominent safety advocates, including Jonathan Adkins, the CEO of the Governors Highway Safety Association.

“Automated enforcement works,” Adkins said. “For lack of a better term, it sucks to get a ticket. It changes your behavior.”

….

No one likes getting a speeding ticket. But the objections to automated traffic enforcement go deeper than that.

“We are very skeptical that safety is the real goal,” says Jay Beeber, with the National Motorists Association, a driver advocacy group.

There are other ways to get drivers to slow down, Beeber argues, including speed feedback signs that show drivers how fast they’re going in real time.

Author(s): Joel Rose

Publication Date: 16 Feb 2024

Publication Site: NPR, All Things Considered

Problematic Paper Screener

Mary Pat Campbell

Link: https://dbrech.irit.fr/pls/apex/f?p=9999:1::::::

https://www.irit.fr/~Guillaume.Cabanac/problematic-paper-screener

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Excerpt:

🕵️ This website shows reports the daily screening of papers (partly) generated with:► Automatic SBIR Proposal Generator► Dada Engine► Mathgen► SCIgen► Tortured phrases… and Citejacked papers 🔥⚗️ Harvesting data from these APIs:► Crossref, now including the Retraction Watch Database► Dimensions► PubPeer

Explanation: https://www.irit.fr/~Guillaume.Cabanac/problematic-paper-screener/CLM_TorturedPhrases.pdf

Author(s): Guillaume Cabanac

Publication Date: accessed 16 Feb 2024

D.C. to Silicon Valley: Drop Dead

Mary Pat Campbell

Link: https://www.city-journal.org/article/d-c-to-silicon-valley-drop-dead

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Excerpt:

For venture capitalists and startup entrepreneurs, 2023 was a year dedicated to the destructive phase of Joseph Schumpeter’s notion of creative destruction. Silicon Valley Bank collapsed in the second-largest bank failure in American history, 400,000 tech jobs were eliminated in what Wired dubbed “The Great Tech Layoffs,” and dozens of high-potential startups transformed from unicorns into “zombies.”

…..

It’s no surprise that the startup industry needed to retrench—that’s been clear to observers for some time. What is surprising, however, is the reaction of policymakers in Washington, D.C., who apparently see this moment of tech-industry weakness as an opportune time to hobble the innovation economy. Take the mess that’s become of Section 174 of the Internal Revenue Code. For decades, this section has allowed companies to expense their research and development costs for software in the current year, which means that salaries paid to software engineers are entirely deductible upfront. That’s a critical calculation for early-stage tech startups, since development costs are high and revenues are low at inception.

But as negotiators were finalizing the 2017 tax reform, they ran into a quandary: they needed to find an accounting gimmick that would add revenue to the bill so that it would be budget-neutral in the ensuing decade and pass muster with Congress’s arcane budget reconciliation process. Among other components, negotiators settled on a poison pill: five years on, starting in 2023, Section 174 accounting benefits would radically shrink, suddenly choking off the cash flow for America’s most innovative companies.

No one considered that the punishing provision would arrive just when startup innovation is shriveling in the face of higher Fed interest rates after the inflation-stoking over-exuberance of the Covid-19 economy. Industry publications and commentators have warned about the impending doom for more than a year. This week, a bipartisan group of legislators offered a path forward, coupling an antidote to the R&D poison pill with an expansion of child tax credits. But with days to go before companies must start calculating their taxes, the prospects are dim that Congress will pass the fix.

Author(s): Danny Crichton

Publication Date: 18 Jan 2024

Publication Site: City Journal

The Little Book of Data 6

Mary Pat Campbell

Link: https://www.avivainvestors.com/en-gb/views/aiq-investment-thinking/little-book-of-data/

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Excerpt:

The sixth edition of The Little Book of Data presents original and curated visuals, charts and graphics to offer a fresh perspective on topics shaping our world, including climate change, artificial intelligence, inflation, economics and geopolitics.

Author(s): Aviva Investors

Publication Date: October 2023

Publication Site: Aviva

CDC Downplayed News of Vax Myocarditis

Mary Pat Campbell

Link: https://checkyourwork.kelleykga.com/p/cdc-downplayed-news-of-vax-myocarditis

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Excerpt:

With the recent discovery that the CDC drafted — but never sent — a Health Alert in May 2021 about myocarditis after mRNA vaccination, I put together this timeline about vaccine myocarditis news and updates from government officials. I include a combination of documents from CDC and FDA, as well as what was covered in the mainstream media.

I think this timeline shows a pattern in which CDC & FDA failed to adequately investigate and inform the public about the risks of myocarditis early in the vaccine rollout. However, there was public acknowledgement by the CDC, as early as May 20, 2021, about a potential pattern of myocarditis after the 2nd dose of mRNA vaccines, particularly in young men.

On June 1, 2021, the CDC confirmed that they had identified a higher than expected signal of myocarditis for young men after mRNA vaccination, but that they still recommended Covid vaccination for everyone in this age group. Despite a lot more analysis and discussion of myocarditis after that, and a changing landscape with widespread natural immunity, the CDC & FDA position has changed very little since that time.

Author(s): Kelley in Georgia

Publication Date: 19 Jan 2024

Publication Site: Check your Work on substack

I Am Afraid of Early Cancer Detection

Mary Pat Campbell

Link: https://www.sensible-med.com/p/i-am-afraid-of-early-cancer-detection?utm_source=post-email-title&publication_id=1000397&post_id=141592311&utm_campaign=email-post-title&isFreemail=true&r=15zk5&utm_medium=email

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Excerpt:

Looking a bit more closely you see why Grail’s test is actually useless, or dangerous, or both. Let’s start with the sensitivity of the test. For a cancer screening test to work, it must find disease before it has caused symptoms — when it is in an early or premalignant stage. Say what you want about lung cancer screening, mammography, PSA, and colonoscopy (I’m talking to you Drs. M and P) but at least they look for, and succeed at finding, early stage/premalignant disease. Here is the sensitivity of the Galleri test by stage: stage 1, 16.8%; stage 2, 40.4%; stage 3, 77%; stage 4, 90.1%.

The test is nearly worthless at finding stage 1 disease, the stage we would like to find with screening. The type of disease that is usually cured with surgery alone.

How about specificity? Let’s consider a fictional, 64-year-old male patient who presents to his internist worried about pancreatic cancer. I pick pancreatic not only because it is a scary cancer: we can’t screen for it, our treatments stink, and it seems to kill half the people in NYT obituary section. I also chose it because it is the anecdotal disease in the WSJ article.

….

Working through the math (prevalence 0.03%, sensitivity 61.9%, specificity 99.5%), this means our patient’s likelihood of having pancreatic cancer after a positive test is only 3.58%. For our patient, we have caused anxiety and the need for an MRI. You almost hope to find pancreatic cancer at this point to be able to say, “Well, it was all worth it.” If the MRI or ERCP is negative, the patient will live with fear and constant monitoring. (You will have to wait until next week to consider with me the impact of this test if we were to deploy it widely).

If the evaluation is positive, and you have managed to diagnose asymptomatic, pancreatic cancer, the likelihood of survival is probably, at best, 50%.

Let’s end this week with two thoughts. First the data for the Galleri test is not good, yet. The test characteristics are certainly not those we would like to see for a screening test. Even more importantly, good test characteristics are just the start. To know that a test is worthwhile, you would like to know that it does more good than harm. This has not even been tested. The WSJ article scoffs at the idea that we would want this data.5

Author(s): Adam Cifu, MD

Publication Date: 15 Feb 2024

Publication Site: Sensible Medicine, substack

Just 2% of Philadelphia’s pension fund could boost the local economy

Mary Pat Campbell

Link:https://www.inquirer.com/opinion/commentary/philadelphia-pension-fund-investments-20240214.html?utm_source=email&utm_campaign=edit_social_share_email_traffic&utm_medium=email&utm_content=&utm_term=&int_promo=

Excerpt:

The primary responsibility of the $8.4 billion Philadelphia pension fund is to assure the continuing financial security promised to city workers upon retirement. The welfare of city employees, along with all Philadelphians, depends on the economic and social well-being of the city itself. Therefore, the Philadelphia Public Banking Coalition has proposed that the city pension fund invest $168 million, 2% of its portfolio, in local economically targeted investments to fund projects that benefit Philadelphians.

These investments would address policy goals while achieving returns as high or higher than many of the fund’s current asset classes. Currently, the 2023 pension fund investment policy describes risky investments in options, futures, forwards, and swap agreements. And there’s a precedent for public policy considerations, for example, in limitations on investments in Russian companies, private prisons, and arms manufacturers. The current portfolio exhibits a strong real estate focus but without preference for Philadelphia projects.

Below are just a few of the possible opportunities for targeted investments that would strengthen the health of Philadelphia’s economy.

Author(s): Stan Shapiro and Peter Winslow, For The Inquirer

Publication Date: 14 Feb 2024

Publication Site: The Philadelphia Inquirer

Fed Rate Cut Expectations Drop on Unexpectedly Strong CPI Data

Mary Pat Campbell

Link:https://mishtalk.com/economics/fed-rate-cut-expectations-drop-on-unexpectedly-strong-cpi-data/

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Excerpt:

  • A month ago, the market thought there was no chance the Fed would hold pat through May.
  • A week ago, the odds were 33.4 percent.
  • Yesterday, the odds were 39.3 percent.
  • Today, the market says there is a 62.1 percent chance the Fed did not cut in March or May. There is no April meeting.

Author(s): Mike Shedlock

Publication Date: 13 Feb 2024

Publication Site: Mish Talk

Insurance Fraud on the March

Mary Pat Campbell

Link: https://www.insurancejournal.com/blogs/right-street/2024/02/12/760360.htm

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Excerpt:

Some of the most chilling examples of insurance fraud are grisly affairs revealing the darkest of humanity’s dark side:

  • John Gilbert Graham placed a time-release bomb on a plane in which his mother was traveling, for the life insurance payment. The bomb exploded. In addition to Graham’s mother all 43 other passengers and crew perished.
  • Utah physician Farid Fata administered chemotherapy to hundreds of women who did not have cancer. Fata submitted $34 million in fraudulent claims to Medicare and private insurance companies.
  • Ali Elmezayen staged a freak car accident which took the lives of his two autistic children and nearly drowned his wife. He collected a $260,000 insurance payout, but his crime was discovered. He was sentenced to 212 years in prison.
  • A Chicago federal grand jury charged 23 defendants with participating in a fraud scheme swindling $26 million from ten life insurers. The scheme featured submission of fraudulent applications to obtain policies, and misrepresenting the identity of the deceased.

There are thousands of other equally horrific insurance fraud stories. The annual Dirty Dozen Hall of Shame report describes some of the most egregious, and contributes to an understanding of how far fraudsters will go to cheat insurance companies.

….

Improvements in predictive modeling and the introduction of artificial intelligence (AI) have strengthened insurers abilities to identify, and ultimately investigate, submitted claims that may be fraudulent. At the same time, however, AI is also being used as a weapon to penetrate insurers’ fraud detection systems. Techniques being used include AI-created fake photographs of cars of a particular make and model showing damage that is not real, but used to extract a claims payment. Some insurers are no longer accepting photos because they may be doctored, and are returning to adjustors physically visiting the allegedly damaged car. A nefarious life insurance scam includes AI-enabled manipulation of ones voice so that a criminal third party gets past insurers’ voice recognition technology, and initiates a policy being surrendered to a non-policyholder, non-beneficiary. It seems that for every additional layer of protection insurers introduce, the criminals are keeping up, if not forging ahead.

Author(s): Jerry Theodorou, R Street

Publication Date: 12 Feb 2024

Publication Site: Insurance Journal