Month: June 2023

British marriage, zoomed out

Mary Pat Campbell

Link: https://blog.datawrapper.de/historical-marriage-age-britain/

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In the previous Weekly Chart, Elliot brought the data to confirm a commonsense impression: people these days are waiting later than their parents and grandparents did to get married and have children. The average age of a newlywed in the U.K. is 30.6 for women and 32.1 for men — about five years older than they would have been 1995, and nine years older than in 1964.

When we’re looking back in history, three generations is about as far as common sense can usually go. Those are the people whose lives we know firsthand. Many of us might have a general impression that women, especially, married young in the past, but we don’t actually have any 19th century friends or family to compare that impression against. Reading last week’s post, I was curious to see the older data that could fill in that gap.

Author(s): Rose Mintzer-Sweeney

Publication Date: 15 Jun 2023

Publication Site: Datawrapper

MBTA retirement fund is headed for a financial reckoning

Mary Pat Campbell

Link: https://www.bostonglobe.com/2023/06/19/opinion/mbta-retirement-fund-finances/

Excerpt:

The MBTA Retirement Fund is going over a cliff, and the reasons why are well known. But neither the T nor its unions are in a hurry to do anything about it.

The new MBTA Retirement Fund Actuarial Valuation Report shows the fund’s balance as of Dec. 31, 2022, was $1.62 billion — about $300 million less than what it was just 12 months earlier. Its liability — the amount it will owe current and future T retirees — is over $3.1 billion, meaning the fund is about 51 percent funded. In 2006, it was 94 percent funded. A “death spiral” generally accelerates when retirement system funding dips below 50 percent.

In April, the Pioneer Public Interest Law Center got the MBTA to hand over an August 2022 arbitration decision regarding a pension dispute between the T and its biggest union. It contained a critical win for the authority: Arbitrator Elizabeth Neumeier decided that most employees would have to work until age 65 to earn a full pension, saving the MBTA at least $12 million annually.

But the Carmen’s Union sued to invalidate that portion of the decision, and the parties returned to the bargaining table. The new pension agreement they hammered out doesn’t include the historic retirement age victory; T management negotiated it away.

….

As of Dec. 31, 2022, 5,555 active employees paid into the fund, but 6,783 retirees collected from it. The biggest reason for the mismatch is the age at which T employees retire. Those hired before December 2012 can retire with a full pension after 23 years of service, regardless of age. Those hired after December 2012 can retire with a full pension at age 55 after 25 years.

The arbitrator finally gave the MBTA the win it so desperately needed, and T management promptly gave it back. Many MBTA managers have long opposed changing the age at which employees can earn a full pension, fearing the reaction of T unions.

….

Hard as it may be to believe, the T retirement fund’s financial outlook is even worse than it appears. Financial projections assume the fund’s assets will earn 7.25 percent annually. Over time, actual returns have been more like 4 percent to 7 percent.

These misleading projections are based on other faulty assumptions. In her 2022 decision, Neumeier refused the MBTA’s request to use newer actuarial tables, ruling that changing would be costly and that there was no compelling reason to update the tables. The ones in place are from 1989 — so old that they assume all T employees are men. Since women tend to live longer, the tables materially understate the retirement fund liability.

Author(s): Mark T. Williams, Charles Chieppo 

Publication Date: 19 Jun 2023

Publication Site: Boston Globe

[109] Data Falsificada (Part 1): “Clusterfake”

Mary Pat Campbell

Link: https://datacolada.org/109

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Two summers ago, we published a post (Colada 98: .htm) about a study reported within a famous article on dishonesty (.htm). That study was a field experiment conducted at an auto insurance company (The Hartford). It was supervised by Dan Ariely, and it contains data that were fabricated. We don’t know for sure who fabricated those data, but we know for sure that none of Ariely’s co-authors – Shu, Gino, Mazar, or Bazerman – did it [1]. The paper has since been retracted (.htm).

That auto insurance field experiment was Study 3 in the paper.

It turns out that Study 1’s data were also tampered with…but by a different person.

That’s right:
Two different people independently faked data for two different studies in a paper about dishonesty.

The paper’s three studies allegedly show that people are less likely to act dishonestly when they sign an honesty pledge at the top of a form rather than at the bottom of a form. Study 1 was run at the University of North Carolina (UNC) in 2010. Gino, who was a professor at UNC prior to joining Harvard in 2010, was the only author involved in the data collection and analysis of Study 1 [2].

Author(s): Uri Simonsohn, Leif Nelson, and Joseph Simmons

Publication Date: 17 Jun 2023

Publication Site: Data Colada

The Fed’s Dot Plot of Interest Rate Projections Show It’s Totally Confused

Mary Pat Campbell

Link: https://mishtalk.com/economics/the-feds-dot-plot-of-interest-rate-projections-show-its-totally-confused

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The Fed’s Summary of Economic projections is far more interesting. I highlighted the median economic forecast in pink. Each dot represents the position of someone at the meeting.

Looking ahead to 2025, the Fed is clueless. 

Actually, that’s not a bad thing. Someone on the committee is likely to be correct.

Moreover, the results look like one of my favorite sayings: I don’t know and no one else does either, especially the Fed.

Author(s): Mike Shedlock

Publication Date: 14 Jun 2023

Publication Site: Mish Talk

Opinion  How much did Congress lose by defunding the IRS? Way more than we thought.

Mary Pat Campbell

Link: https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/interactive/2023/irs-enforcement-costs-congress-funding/

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The White House and Congress recently agreed to claw back more than $20 billion earmarked for the Internal Revenue Service. This deal was, ostensibly, part of a grand bargain to reduce budget deficits.

Unfortunately, it’s likely tohave the opposite effect. Every dollar available for auditing taxpayers generates many times that amount for government coffers — and the rate of return is especially astonishing for audits of the wealthiest Americans, according to new research shared exclusively with The Post.

A team of researchers at Harvard University, the University of Sydney and the Treasury Department examined internal IRS data for approximately 710,000 in-person audits from 2010 to 2014. Here’s what they found:

Wealthy people generally have more complex tax returns, so auditing them costs more. Internal government records show that the IRS employees auditing the rich earn higher wages and spend much more time per audit; overhead costs add up, too.

Now here’s the revenue collected per audit, from additional taxes, penalties and interest. The differential for low- vs. high-income taxpayers is even bigger.

This means that while the upfront costs of auditing the wealthy are usually higher — perhaps suggesting these taxpayers aren’t worth going after — the average return on investment is much better.

Author(s):

Opinion by Catherine Rampell and graphics by
Youyou Zhou

Publication Date: 14 Jun 2023

Publication Site: Washington Post

$50 Billion in Opioid Settlement Cash Is on the Way. We’re Tracking How It’s Spent.

Mary Pat Campbell

Link: https://kffhealthnews.org/news/article/opioid-drugmakers-settlement-funds-50-billion-dollars-khn-investigation-payback/

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More than $50 billion in settlement funds is being delivered to thousands of state and local governments from companies accused of flooding their communities with opioid painkillers that have left millions addicted or dead.

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Most of the settlements stipulate that states must spend at least 85% of the money they will receive over the next 15 years on addiction treatment and prevention. But defining those concepts depends on stakeholders’ views — and state politics. To some, it might mean opening more treatment sites. To others, buying police cruisers.

….

What’s more, many states are not being transparent about where the funds are going and who will benefit. An investigation by KHN and Christine Minhee, founder of OpioidSettlementTracker.com, concluded only 12 states have committed to detailed public reporting of all their spending.

The analysis involved scouring hundreds of legal documents, laws, and public statements to determine how each state is divvying up its settlement money among state agencies, city and county governments, and councils that oversee dedicated trusts. The next step was to determine the level and detail of public reporting required. The finding: Few states promise to report in ways that are accessible to the average person, and many are silent on the issue of transparency altogether.

More than $3 billion has gone out to state and local governments so far. KHN will be following how that cash — and the billions set to arrive in coming years — is used.

Author(s): Aneri Pattani

Publication Date: 30 March 2023

Publication Site: Kaiser Health News

Small Town and Rural Hospitals Are at Risk of Closing due to Funding

Mary Pat Campbell

Link: https://angrybearblog.com/2023/06/107367

pdf report: https://chqpr.org/downloads/Rural_Hospitals_at_Risk_of_Closing.pdf

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Things are changing more rapidly. Smaller hospitals are under an attack of high costs and less revenue. As a result, many are closing leaving the small town and rural residents without medical care or having to drive long distances in emergencies. As reported by Healthcare Quality and Payment Reform:

Many people across the country could not receive hospital care in their community when the pandemic began. Over 150 rural hospitals closed between 2005 and 2019. An additional 19 rural hospitals closed in 2020, more than any year in the previous decade. The closures are not resulting from the pandemic, but by financial losses in previous years. Ten more rural hospitals closed in 2021 and 2022. The closures decreased in 2019 due to the special financial assistance hospitals received during the pandemic. The pandemic aid has ended and closures are likely to increase.

Hundreds of Hospitals are at Risk of Closing

Six hundred rural hospitals or ~ 30% of all rural hospitals in the country are at risk of closing. At risk because of the serious financial problems, they are experiencing:

Author(s): Center for Healthcare Quality and Payment Reform

Publication Date: 7 Jun 2023 on blog, accessed 14 Jun 2023

Publication Site: Angry Bear Blog

Minority- and Women-Owned Business Enterprise: Asset Management and Financial Institution Strategy Report

Mary Pat Campbell

Link: https://www.osc.state.ny.us/files/reports/special-topics/pdf/mwbe-fiscal-2022-23.pdf?utm_content=20230610&utm_medium=email&utm_source=weekly+news

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In the 2022-23 fiscal year, the Fund recorded growth in its investments with MWBE managers. Despite increased market volatility from the banking disruptions to small financial institutions and the regional banking system and the rise in interest rates, the Fund has continued its steady deployment of capital to MWBE investment managers. As detailed in the tables below, total investments and commitments of Fund capital to MWBE partners for 2022-23 was $31.5 billion.

….

While Fund management is very pleased with these results, our team is committed to retaining our long-term focus on steady, incremental growth, partnering with successful MWBE managers. The 2022-23 results illustrate another important measure of the success of the Fund’s MWBE Strategy. Of the approximate $141 billion of the Fund’s assets that are actively and externally managed, 22.3 percent is managed by MWBEs.

Author(s): Comptroller Thomas P. DiNapoli

Publication Date: May 2023

Publication Site: Office of the New York State Comptroller

Biden Admin Implores States to Slow Medicaid Cuts After More Than 1M Enrollees Dropped

Mary Pat Campbell

Link: https://kffhealthnews.org/news/article/biden-administration-states-medicaid-cuts-million-dropped/

Excerpt:

Too many Americans are losing Medicaid coverage because of red tape, and states should do more to make sure eligible people keep their health insurance, the Biden administration said Monday.

More than a million Americans have lost coverage through the program for low-income and disabled Americans in the past several weeks, following the end of pandemic protections on April 1, according to the latest Medicaid renewal data from more than 20 states.

After a three-year pause, most states have now resumed checking which Medicaid recipients remain eligible and dropping those who no longer qualify or don’t complete required paperwork. About 4 in 5 people dropped so far either never returned the paperwork or omitted required documents, federal and state data show.

….

The Biden administration outlined several optional steps states can take to ensure everyone who still qualifies for the safety-net health insurance program stays covered. For instance, states can pause the cancellations to allow more time to reach people who haven’t responded. Health insurance companies that manage Medicaid plans can help their enrollees fill out the paperwork.

Author(s): Hannah Recht

Publication Date: 13 Jun 2023

Publication Site: Kaiser Health News