Month: March 2022

Alcohol-Related Deaths During the COVID-19 Pandemic

Mary Pat Campbell

Link: https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2790491

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The number of deaths involving alcohol increased between 2019 and 2020 (from 78 927 to 99 017 [relative change, 25.5%]), as did the age-adjusted rate (from 27.3 to 34.4 per 100 000 [relative change, 25.9%]) (Table). Comparatively, deaths from all causes had smaller relative increases in number (from 2 823 460 to 3 353 547 [18.8%]) and rate (from 938.3 to 1094.3 per 100 000 [16.6%]). Alcohol-related deaths accounted for 2.8% of all deaths in 2019 and 3.0% in 2020.

The Figure presents the number of alcohol-related deaths in 2019 and 2020 by month, with provisional data included for the first 6 months of 2021.

Rates increased for all age groups, with the largest increases occurring for people aged 35 to 44 years (from 22.9 to 32.0 per 100 000 [39.7%]) and 25 to 34 years (from 11.8 to 16.1 per 100 000 [37.0%]). Increases in rates were similar for females (from 13.7 to 17.5 per 100 000 [27.3%]) and males (from 42.1 to 52.6 per 100 000 [25.1%]) (Table).

The number of deaths with an underlying cause of alcohol-associated liver diseases increased from 24 106 to 29 504 (22.4%) and the number of deaths with an underlying cause of alcohol-related mental and behavioral disorders increased from 11 261 to 15 211 (35.1%). Opioid overdose deaths involving alcohol as a contributing cause increased from 8503 to 11 969 (40.8%). Deaths in which alcohol contributed to overdoses specifically on synthetic opioids other than methadone (eg, fentanyl) increased from 6302 to 10 032 (59.2%).

Author(s): Aaron M. White, PhD1; I-Jen P. Castle, PhD1; Patricia A. Powell, PhD1; et al

Publication Date: 18 Mar 2022

Publication Site: JAMA Network

THE FIRST ANNUAL CAS ACTUARIAL
TECHNOLOGY SURVEY

Mary Pat Campbell

Link: https://www.casact.org/sites/default/files/2022-03/CAS-RP_First_Annual_CAS_Actuarial_Technology_Survey.pdf

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Excel continues to be actuaries’ most widely used software tool, with more than
94.3% of respondents reporting that they use it at least once a day.
• With that understood, most actuaries (92.3%) use more than one tool.
• Actuaries want to increase their proficiency in R (47.2%), Python (39.1%), SQL
(30.8%), and Excel (26.0%).
• No tool had more than 50% of respondents indicating that they wanted to increase
their proficiency.
• Time is the greatest barrier to learning new technology. (80.5% of respondents felt
so.)
• Newer analysis methods such as tree-based algorithms and artificial intelligence (AI)
are not widely used (16.5% and 7.0%, respectively).

Author(s): Casualty Actuarial Society

Publication Date: March 2022

Publication Site: CAS Research Paper

More Americans 65 and Under Died from Alcohol-Related Causes Than Covid-19 in 2020, Study Finds

Mary Pat Campbell

Link: https://www.nationalreview.com/news/more-americans-65-and-under-died-from-alcohol-related-causes-than-covid-19-in-2020-study-finds/

Excerpt:

Alcohol-related deaths increased 25 percent from 2019 to 2020, with alcohol-related deaths among adults younger than 65 outnumbering deaths from Covid-19 in the same age group in 2020, a new study found.

Alcohol-related deaths, including from liver disease and accidents, increased to 99,017 in 2020, up from 78,927 the year prior, according to the study performed by researchers with the National Institute on Alcohol Abuse and Alcoholism, a division of the National Institutes of Health.

While 74,408 Americans ages 16 to 64 died of alcohol-related causes, 74,075 individuals under 65 died of Covid-19, the study found. The rate of increase for alcohol-related deaths in 2020 (25 percent) was greater than the rate of increase of deaths from all causes (16.6 percent).

The study shows just another unintended consequence of Covid-19 lockdowns and mitigation measures.

Author(s): Brittany Bernstein

Publication Date: 22 March 2022

Publication Site: National Review

The Labor Guide to Retirement Plans (I)

Mary Pat Campbell

Link: https://burypensions.wordpress.com/2022/03/22/the-labor-guide-to-retirement-plans-i/

Excerpt:

A book to educate labor people to argue for keeping their underfunded defined benefit plans with sprinklings of propaganda.

Yet pension plans cost governments less than 401(k)s for the same benefit amount. Most public pension plans are in sound financial shape despite media focus on the few that are not. (page 10)

At one point, I commented to a pension attorney that I didn’t think there were more than twenty-five people in the state who understood how the state employee pension plan worked. He agreed and then added that there were a lot more people who thought they did, especially politicians who were proposing reforms to it. (page 16)

Unless your doctor has told you you’re about to die, receiving a lump sum payment is almost always a terrible idea. (page 110)

Author(s): John Bury

Publication Date: 23 Mar 2022

Publication Site: Burypensions

Pray Hochul won’t cave to union calls for a big pension giveaway — at NY taxpayer expense

Mary Pat Campbell

Link: https://nypost.com/2022/03/11/pray-hochul-wont-cave-to-union-calls-for-a-big-pension-giveaway/

Excerpt:

Tuesday will be the 10th anniversary of a state legislative landmark: the creation of a new public-pension “tier” reining in the explosive cost of state- and local-government retirement benefits in New York.

While Tier 6 wasn’t the “bold and transformational” breakthrough touted by then-Gov. Andrew Cuomo in 2012, it was a solid net positive for taxpayers, building on incremental changes in the Tier 5 pension reform enacted two years earlier. (Tiers 5 and 6 cover most occupations other than police and firefighters, who belong to other pension plans modified in different ways by the same legislation.)

The reforms have saved billions of taxpayer dollars for the state and local governments over the past decade — including $1 billion this year alone — plus significant added savings for New York City’s separate pension systems.

The state’s well-fed public-sector unions tried to block pension changes at every turn. Now, under the slogan “Fix Tier 6,” they’re pushing the Legislature to roll back pension reform as part of the budget for the fiscal year that starts April 1.

The “fix” sought by the 200,000-member Civil Service Employees Association and other government unions is a return to the state’s enriched pre-2010 pension plans, which (among other sweeteners) required no employee pension-fund contributions after 10 years and allowed for early retirement on full pensions as early as age 55 after a minimum 30 years of service.

Author(s): E.J. McMahon

Publication Date: 11 Mar 2022

Publication Site: NY Post

Tesla eyes further US insurance expansion

Mary Pat Campbell

Link: https://www.insurancebusinessmag.com/us/news/breaking-news/tesla-eyes-further-us-insurance-expansion-398471.aspx?utm_medium=email&utm_source=rasa_io

Excerpt:

Tesla is looking to expand its auto insurance offering into two more states: Oregon and Virginia.

The electric vehicle manufacturer currently offers insurance products in Arizona, California, Illinois, Ohio, and Texas – where Tesla first launched its pilot insurance program which tracks policyholders’ driving behavior to set rates.

The “safety scores” generated by Tesla’s onboard telematics systems in its vehicles are available for drivers to view and use in insurance rate setting in Arizona, Illinois, Ohio and Texas – California regulations have not yet permitted the use of telematics data in insurance. Tesla claims that drivers with high safety scores can save 20% to 60% on their insurance costs.

Author(s): Lyle Adriano

Publication Date: 14 Mar 2022

Publication Site: Insurance Business America

Death the Dickensian Way

Mary Pat Campbell

Link: https://marypatcampbell.substack.com/p/death-the-dickensian-way?s=w

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As you can see, Bleak House is the dying-est novels for named characters.

Obviously, if you really go by what was going on in the novel in general, A Tale of Two Cities, which has a huge part of its action take place in the middle of The Terror, really was set in the most murderous time.

Looking at this body count, I’d say Bleak House is the one that comes closest to accurate Victorian UK mortality. It was brutal, y’all.

Author(s): Mary Pat Campbell

Publication Date: 16 Mar 2022

Publication Site: STUMP at substack

The broken federal budget process gets even worse with $1.5 trillion omnibus spending bill

Mary Pat Campbell

Link: https://reason.org/commentary/the-broken-federal-budget-process-gets-even-worse-with-1-5-trillion-omnibus-spending-bill/

Excerpt:

Tardy federal budgets are nothing new in Washington. According to the Tax Policy Center, Congress has only completed the budgetary process in a timely fashion, which requires passing all 12 appropriations bills prior to October 1, four times since fiscal year (FY) 1977. The last time Congress’ budgetary process worked as expected was FY 1997, more than two decades ago.

When the budget does not pass on time, Congress must pass a continuing resolution (CR) to avoid a government shutdown. Since continuing resolutions typically maintain departmental funding at prior-year levels, they do not signal the policy choices ultimately made in the budget process. As a result, federal managers must begin the fiscal year without a clear direction as to whether they should be increasing or decreasing staff and non-employee operational expenditures. If a federal agency or department ultimately receives a significant funding increase or funding cut in the final appropriations bill, managers may have insufficient time to respond efficiently.

While federal budgeting has been broken for some time, the situation in 2022 is especially bad. Over five months into the budgetary year, the House Rules Committee produced a 2,741-page omnibus budget bill in the wee hours of March 9, just hours before the bill’s scheduled vote on the House floor.

Author(s): Marc Joffe

Publication Date: 11 March 2022

Publication Site: Reason

The Most Detailed Map of Cancer-Causing Industrial Air Pollution in the U.S.

Mary Pat Campbell

Link: https://projects.propublica.org/toxmap/?utm_source=sailthru&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=datastore&utm_content=river

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ProPublica’s analysis of five years of modeled EPA data identified more than 1,000 toxic hot spots across the country and found that an estimated 250,000 people living in them may be exposed to levels of excess cancer risk that the EPA deems unacceptable.

The agency has long collected the information on which our analysis is based. Thousands of facilities nationwide that are considered large sources of toxic air pollution submit a report to the government each year on their chemical emissions.

But the agency has never released this data in a way that allows the public to understand the risks of breathing the air where they live. Using the reports submitted between 2014 and 2018, we calculated the estimated excess cancer risk from industrial sources across the entire country and mapped it all.

The EPA’s threshold for an acceptable level of cancer risk is 1 in 10,000, meaning that of 10,000 people living in an area, there would likely be one additional case of cancer over a lifetime of exposure. But the agency has also said that ideally, Americans’ added level of cancer risk from air pollution should be far lower, 1 in a million. Our map highlights areas where the additional cancer risk is greater than 1 in 100,000 — 10 times lower than the EPA’s threshold, but still high enough to be of concern, experts say.

Author(s): Al Shaw and Lylla Younes, Additional reporting by Ava Kofman

Publication Date: last updated 15 Mar 2022, accessed 16 Mar 2022

Publication Site: ProPublica

What’s New in Financial Reporting

Mary Pat Campbell

Link: https://cfany.gallery.video/fullconference/detail/videos/most-recent/video/6299420346001/what%E2%80%99s-new-in-financial-reporting?autoStart=true

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Program will bring you up to date with most recent and coming important financial reporting developments for 2022 from FASB. Speakers include two FASB Board members and SEC’s Senior Associate Chief Accountant.

Author(s): multiple presenters

Publication Date: 1 Mar 2022 originally presented, recording accessed 16 Mar 2022

Publication Site: CFA Society of New York

Big Four Accounting Firms Come Under Regulator’s Scrutiny

Mary Pat Campbell

Link: https://www.wsj.com/articles/big-four-accounting-firms-come-under-regulators-scrutiny-11647364574?st=e3o5412th5mqg7m&reflink=desktopwebshare_linkedin

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Regulators are carrying out a sweeping investigation of conflicts of interest at the nation’s largest accounting firms, asking whether consulting and other nonaudit services they sell undermine their ability to conduct independent reviews of public companies’ financials, according to people familiar with the matter.

The Securities and Exchange Commission probe highlights the agency’s new focus on financial-market gatekeepers such as accountants, bankers and lawyers. These firms help companies raise capital and communicate with shareholders, but also have duties under federal investor-protection laws. Auditors are a shareholder’s first line of defense against sloppy or dodgy accounting.

….

The Big Four audit 66% of all public companies with a market capitalization over $75 million, according to Audit Analytics. All four have paid fines to the SEC since 2014 to settle prior regulatory investigations of audit independence violations.

Author(s): Dave Michaels

Publication Date: 15 Mar 2022

Publication Site: WSJ

Mortality Monday: DEATH TO GEESE

Mary Pat Campbell

Link: https://stump.marypat.org/article/766/mortality-monday-death-to-geese

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ANIMAL ENCOUNTER DIAGNOSES

Going back to the mortality database from the U.S. in 2014, I needed to figure out what the relevant ICD-10 codes were.

….

That’s a total of 384 deaths, and it looks like the primary cause is being attacked by some non-dog mammal. I would assume the second cause is primarily people being thrown from or falling off horses. Alas, most of the vehicular accident codes do not distinguish between hitting a person and hitting an animal.

Author(s): Mary Pat Campbell

Publication Date: 3 July 2017

Publication Site: STUMP