Month: February 2022

Top Democrats challenge Janet Mills to give retired state workers a big pension boost

Mary Pat Campbell

Link: https://bangordailynews.com/2022/02/04/politics/top-democrats-challenge-janet-mills-to-give-retired-state-workers-a-big-pension-boost-xoasq1i29i/

Excerpt:

Top legislative Democrats joined a Thursday letter challenging Gov. Janet Mills to give state retirees a bigger cost-of-living increase to address inflation with the governor nearly ready to release a key spending plan.

People in the Maine Public Employee Retirement System, which includes retired state employees and teachers, were told last summer that they would receive a 3 percent increase to their benefits up to nearly $23,000. Inflation during that time was 5.4 percent.

A letter sent to the governor on Thursday by 59 lawmakers led by Sen. Joe Rafferty, D-Kennebunk, and joined by all Democratic leaders in both chambers, including Senate President Troy Jackson, D-Allagash, and House Speaker Ryan Fecteau, D-Biddeford, asks Mills to fund an increase commensurate with the level of inflation in her upcoming budget proposal.

Author(s): Caitlin Andrews

Publication Date: 4 Feb 2022

Publication Site: Bangor Daily News

Milwaukee’s pension spike is coming fast. Here’s how the mayoral candidates would deal with it.

Mary Pat Campbell

Link:https://www.jsonline.com/story/news/local/milwaukee/2022/02/04/how-milwaukees-mayoral-candidates-would-deal-pension-crisis/6608853001/

Excerpt:

The spike in Milwaukee’s annual pension contribution will be one of the top challenges facing the next mayor — and he or she won’t have much time in office before big decisions must be made.

Next year, current estimates predict the city’s annual pension contribution will increase from about $71 million to about $130 million, according to the city budget office. It is expected to remain elevated for years to come.

The projected increase is driven by factors including a drop in the anticipated future earnings on the city’s pension fund, from 8.24% to 7.5%.

With no solution, a quarter of the city’s workforce could be let go between 2023 and 2025, affecting services the city provides to residents, according to a report from the city’s Pension Task Force. 

Author(s): Alison Dirr

Publication Date: 4 Feb 2022

Publication Site: Milwaukee Journal Sentinel

USQS Roundtable—All About the Amended Standards

Mary Pat Campbell

Link:https://contingencies.org/usqs-roundtable-all-about-the-amended-standards/

Excerpt:

TC: The work of the actuary is evolving more and more toward big data and artificial intelligence. In addition, we are seeing evolving regulatory and societal requirements that will place new demands on the actuary’s work. These new areas involve working with more unknowns in the tools actuaries use—such as data, models, algorithms, and assumptions. In order to be effective in these new areas, and to continue to earn the public’s trust in our work, we need to better understand what can impact the appropriateness and effectiveness of these tools. As these areas evolve, it is important for actuaries to understand the potential limits of these tools. This is where obtaining continuing education on bias topics can help. As the USQS lay out, bias topics may include “content that provides knowledge and perspective that assist in identifying and assessing biases that may exist in data, assumptions, algorithms, and models that impact Actuarial Services. Biases may include but are not limited to statistical, cognitive, and social biases.” This is a broad topic, but I believe it will better equip the actuary in our role of maintaining the public’s trust in insurance and pension systems.

LS: Indeed, bias topics are broad. When performing actuarial services there are so many ways that bias impacts our work that we need to keep the topic broad in order that the range of continuing education will give us the appropriate tools. The obvious ways that bias may impact our work are in selection of data, as well as designing, developing, selecting, modifying, or using all types of models and algorithms. Even more important is how we communicate the results of our work. We also operate in a world where we can individually be blindsided by biases that we bring to our work and impact the transparency and validity of the actuarial services that we are providing. Because of our basic education, we know what bias is. That is something that we can continue to fine-tune and will have significant benefits to the reputation of actuaries and allow us to further differentiate our professionalism compared with others, particularly many data scientists.

Publication Date: Jan/Feb 2022

Publication Site: Contingencies

Soaring US road deaths reflect the same lawlessness as murder surge does

Mary Pat Campbell

Link:https://nypost.com/2022/02/06/soaring-road-deaths-reflect-lawlessness-in-the-us/

Excerpt:

Yet even as roads have grown more crowded, this trend has continued: 2020’s total 38,680 traffic deaths were 7.2% above 2019’s.

For the first nine months of 2021, road mileage driven wasn’t even 2% below 2019 levels. The 2020 reason for higher traffic deaths disappeared. People could no longer drive at 100 miles per hour because there was no one else around.

Yet traffic deaths were nearly 18% higher than two years before. The 12% increase between the first nine months of 2020 and 2021 was the highest hike in that period in recorded history, say federal regulators. 

When 2021’s full numbers are in, they’ll likely exceed 42,400 traffic deaths — the worst total in 16 years. Traffic deaths are supposed to fall every year, as road design and cars grow safer (although bigger cars are bad for pedestrians).

…..

This isn’t a universal phenomenon: Road deaths are down in France and Britain from 2019.

Author(s): Nicole Gelinas

Publication Date: 6 Feb 2022

Publication Site: NY Post

Why Interest Rates Could Drive a Debt Crisis

Mary Pat Campbell

Link:https://www.nationalreview.com/2022/02/why-interest-rates-could-drive-a-debt-crisis/

Excerpt:

The average interest rate paid by Washington on its debt has fallen from 8.4 percent to 1.5 percent over the past three decades. However, economic variables tend to fluctuate, and only a fool would assume that a current economic trend will last forever. In the past, economic forecasts and markets told us that high inflation and high unemployment cannot happen simultaneously, that the late-1990s tech-stock bubble wouldn’t burst, and that national housing prices can never fall. Just last year, the Federal Open Market Committee consistently underestimated current-year inflation by three full percentage points. Interest-rate forecasts have proven spectacularly wrong for 50 years.

But now, economic commentators assure us that soaring federal debt is affordable because interest rates will remain low forever.

By contrast, the Congressional Budget Office projects that rates will nudge up to 4.6 percent over three decades. That is easily possible. After all, a broad range of studies show that the projected 100 percent of GDP increase in federal debt over the next three decades should, by itself, add three percentage points to interest rates. Added federal debt over the past 15 years also put upward pressure on interest rates, but this was offset by low productivity, baby-boomer savings, and Federal Reserve policies that pushed rates downward. For interest rates to remain low, those offsetting factors would have to accelerate much further to counteract the three-percentage point effect of future debt.

Author(s): Brian Riedl

Publication Date: 4 Feb 2022

Publication Site: National Review

Keep fiscal responsibility in Illinois’ next budget

Mary Pat Campbell

Link:https://chicago.suntimes.com/2022/2/6/22917731/pritzker-budget-legislature-pensions-college-illinois-health-insurance-editorial

Excerpt:

For example, Pritzker wants to set aside $500 million to pre-pay pensions. To do that, he would take $300 million out of the unexpected extra revenue this year, and $200 millino will come out of the 2023 General Fund budget.

In Illinois politics, pension underfunding is like the weather. Everyone complains, but no one does anything about it. Why? It’s hard to do, and laboring to fix pensions doesn’t resonate with voters. There is little political bang for the buck. That’s why state pensions have been underfunded year after year for a century.

There is value in prepaying pension debt beyond what is required by the so-called ramp, as Pritzker proposes. Because of double compounding — less money must be borrowed to be repaid with interest and investments on the added money yield more returns — $500 million spent now will save the state $1.8 billion later.

Author(s): Editorial Board

Publication Date: 6 Feb 2022

Publication Site: Chicago Sun-Times

Why Coney Island and Brighton Beach were hit so hard by omicron

Mary Pat Campbell

Link:https://gothamist.com/news/why-coney-island-and-brighton-beach-were-hit-so-hard-omicron

Excerpt:

The two zip codes encompassing this region — 11224 and 11235 — have experienced 75 deaths per 100,000 people over the last month, a fatality rate nearly three times the citywide average. The pair of zip codes ranked only behind East New York when it came to the pace of COVID deaths between December 24th and January 20th, while their hospitalization rates were also among the highest in the city.

These two zip codes in southern Brooklyn also have lower vaccination coverage than the city as a whole, a common thread between most of the places hit hardest this winter. The area is averaging 66% full vaccination, compared with 75% citywide. In adjacent Gravesend, fewer than two-thirds of residents are fully vaccinated, and meanwhile, some parts of the city are approaching universal coverage.

….

Hospital leaders said undervaccination is having an outsized effect on these oceanside communities because the area’s demographics make residents prone to severe illness from COVID-19. In Brighton Beach and Coney Island, 26% of residents are over the age of 65, compared with about 14% in the borough as a whole. Many of those elderly residents also have underlying health conditions.

….

Citywide, 89% of New Yorkers between ages 65 to 74 are fully vaccinated, but the rate drops to 63% for people older than 85. Municipal data also show coverage varies by region and by other demographics. For instance, just 62% of white seniors in the Bronx are fully vaccinated, and only 65% of Black seniors in Brooklyn.

Author(s): Caroline Lewis

Publication Date: 7 Feb 2022

Publication Site: Gothamist

Men left behind

Mary Pat Campbell

Link:https://allisonschrager.substack.com/p/known-unknowns-27b

Excerpt:

The economy is still short 4.2 million jobs, but as the virus (hopefully) recedes and remaining restrictions are lifted, these trends should continue. The labor market is on the road to recovery—or the cyclical piece of it is, anyway. But during each recession we see many prime-age men leave the labor force and never come back. This was the case during the last recession, too. Prime male labor force participation is still down nearly 1 percentage point from pre-pandemic levels, and this poses huge costs to the economy because a large number of productive workers are simply sitting out. This is terrible for social reasons as well, because work is important to feeling productive, for increasing stability, for marriage, and being fully productive members of society.

This is a difficult economic problem that falls under the category of “structural,” which means that the Fed’s tools are not well-equipped to deal with it. Even with a tight labor market and rising wages, men are simply not working.

Instead, we need to think more creatively and just fix what’s broken. The common answer is that some of this is driven by a skill mismatch and that there just aren’t many good jobs for men without a college degree. I’m not sure that’s true, it’s very hard to find a good plumber or electrician, which are very well-paying jobs that don’t require a college degree. But they do require skills and training. Community college is often the answer we are given, but it has a terrible track record, primarily because it’s trying to paper over a bigger problem, namely the terrible quality of secondary school, which often fails to properly educate our teenagers. It seems like if we really wanted to keep men from leaving the labor market, this is the low-hanging fruit. Many people drop out of community college, but high school graduation rates are at record highs (or at least they were pre-pandemic). We can raise standards and accountability and fund more vocational high schools. However, tech education has become less popular from the 1980s to 2013, even if the skills are still in quite high demand.

Author(s): Allison Schrager

Publication Date: 7 Feb 2022

Publication Site: Known unknowns

Funding Public Pension Plans–Theory and Practice

Mary Pat Campbell

Link:https://www.actuary.org/node/14815

Excerpt:

The Pension Practice Council’s Jan. 25 webinar, “Funding Public Pension Plans—Theory and Practice,” highlighted the Academy’s issue brief The 80% Pension Funding Myth; explored prudent funding practices; and examined considerations being made in the management of “surplus” for state and local public employee pension plans.

Presenters were Academy Pension Vice President Sherry Chan; Paul Angelo, a member of the Public Plans Committee; and Academy member David Lamoureux. Public Plans Committee Chairperson Todd Tauzer moderated.

Using the issue brief as a starting point, Tauzer laid the groundwork of the discussion in going over the basics of pension funding and a funded ratio. Funded ratios move in economic cycles and can be affected by assumption changes, and are also subject to varying asset valuations and liability measurements, he said.

Plan projections go beyond a point in time measurement and can illustrate plan trajectory, which is a more robust indicator of plan health over time. Nevertheless, funded ratios continue to be used ubiquitously. Tauzer highlighted additional considerations to bring context, like financial health and investment strategy of plan sponsor, history of benefit changes, and adherence to funding policy.

Publication Date: 25 Jan 2022

Publication Site: American Academy of Actuaries

Maryland is wasting its pensioners’ money

Mary Pat Campbell

Link:https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2022/02/04/maryland-is-wasting-its-pensioners-money/

Excerpt:

Seven hundred and forty-four million dollars. That is the amount of Wall Street fees paid by the Maryland state pension plan for investment advice in fiscal 2021.

Over the past 10 years, the fees totaled roughly $4.5 billion, or about 15 percent of the plan’s earnings. For that kind of money, you would think the state gets only the prime stock and bond picks from its advisers, but, during that time, Maryland, as with most other states, failed to beat the returns of a simple 60 percent stocks/40 percent bonds index. Many large institutional investors, including public pension plans, use this 60/40 index as a barometer to gauge their portfolios’ results. They structure their portfolios to avoid a 100 percent exposure to the sometimes volatile stock market. If their results are better than the index for a given year, they claim success. Many mutual funds attract smaller individual retail and 401(k) retirement accounts by copying the index and charging low fees for passive management.

….

This drainage damages the financial security of public workers in Maryland and other states, and it forces greater taxpayer contributions to the plans. The ongoing situation has a secondary effect as well: The massive wealth transfer — from public workers and average taxpayers — to a small coterie of Wall Street money managers fosters a new plutocracy, successful at obscuring the problem and blocking reform.

The obvious fix for public plans is to shift from expensive fee investments to low-fee indexing, a tactic endorsed by none other than Warren Buffett, the noted value investor and philanthropist. For large public plans, including Maryland’s, this shift, if implemented, would be gradual. Extricating the fund from its long-term contractual commitments and replacing them with passive investments is going to take time.

Author(s): Jeff Hooke

Publication Date: 4 Feb 2022

Publication Site: Washington Post

Mortality Nuggets: Videos on Suicide Rate Trends, Society of Actuaries Report, and Fixing Their Graph

Mary Pat Campbell

Link:https://marypatcampbell.substack.com/p/mortality-nuggets-videos-on-suicide

Video:

Graphic:

Excerpt:

  • I highlighted a few of the cause-of-death trends. In particular, COVID (which, obviously, is biased more towards the old), and external causes of death: homicide, suicide, and accidents (which includes drug overdoses and motor vehicle accidents).
  • There are basically too many things going on in this graph, so there aren’t a lot of good choices for either me or the SOA. What I did was to pick four of the data series to highlight with data labels, as noted above (and I also slapped one data label on dementia for the oldest age group, just because). I am in the middle of a series going through how that external causes of death changed in 2020 — in particular, accidents and homicides went up, and really affected mortality for adults under age 45, plus male teens.
  • Yeah, check out heart disease and cancer (bottom of the graph). Ain’t old age great?

Author(s): Mary Pat Campbell

Publication Date: 6 Feb 2022

Publication Site: STUMP at substack

Pension Plan Actuarial Assumption Litigation: The End is Not Yet in Sight

Mary Pat Campbell

Link:https://www.jdsupra.com/legalnews/pension-plan-actuarial-assumption-5162449/

Excerpt:

One recent line of ERISA litigation involves the actuarial equivalence factors used by defined benefit pension plans.  The lawsuits apply both to active defined benefit pension plans and pension plans that have been “frozen” as to future benefit accruals.

….

Basically, the lawsuits allege that the plan, through the use of out-of-date and “unreasonable” actuarial assumptions and conversion factors, has “overcharged” participants when converting from the Life Annuity Benefit to payment in an alternate payment form. 

….

In many of the cases, the challenge focuses on allegedly outdated mortality tables that do not take improved life expectancy into account.  In some situations, the actuarial factors (including mortality table assumption) were established decades ago and have never been updated.  In essence, the lawsuits allege that the plan (by not using updated factors and tables) is not paying out the full value of the participant’s benefit when the participant has elected payment in an alternate payment form.

Author(s): Gregg Dooge

Publication Date: 20 Jan 2022

Publication Site: JD Supra