Month: February 2022

Developing Countries Brace for Impact From Fed Rate Increases

Mary Pat Campbell

Link:https://www.wsj.com/articles/developing-countries-brace-for-impact-from-fed-rate-increases-11644321780

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Excerpt:

Central bankers in developing countries have been ratcheting up interest rates for months, seeking to stay ahead of a rise in U.S. rates that could destabilize their economies by pushing up their own cost of debt, weakening their currencies and driving capital out of their markets and into higher-yielding U.S. securities.

Now, the Fed is expected to raise rates anywhere from four to seven times this year. If successful in taming inflation, the Fed could help central banks everywhere, because a turbocharged U.S. economy, huge government stimulus and a splurge by Americans on everything from toys and household appliances have snarled supply chains and driven inflation higher world-wide.

Until now, overseas central banks have found it difficult to get on top of the inflation surge withthe Fed sitting on the sidelines. But with the Fed now poised to join the battle, some say the prospects of success are greater.

Author(s): Paul Hannon

Publication Date: 8 Feb 2022

Publication Site: WSJ

Covid-19 Pandemic Led to Smaller-Than-Expected Baby Bust, New Data Suggest

Mary Pat Campbell

Link:https://www.wsj.com/articles/covid-19-pandemic-led-to-smaller-than-expected-baby-bust-new-data-suggest-11644328800

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New data on U.S. births suggest that the Covid-19 pandemic has led to a smaller-than-expected baby bust.

The U.S. saw about 7,000 fewer births through the first nine months of 2021 compared with the same period the year prior, according to provisional data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s National Center for Health Statistics. The numbers reflect conceptions that occurred roughly from April through December 2020, a period that includes the first part of last winter’s Covid-19 case surge, which started in October 2020 and waned by February 2021.

Author(s): Janet Adamy and Anthony DeBarros

Publication Date: 8 Feb 2022

Publication Site: WSJ

Increase in UK state pension age to 68 could come eight years early

Mary Pat Campbell

Link:https://www.theguardian.com/money/2021/dec/15/increase-uk-state-pension-age-68-could-come-eight-years-early-review

Excerpt:

Millions of people born in the 1970s may have to wait longer to collect their UK state pensions if a government review, which was announced this week, recommends bringing forward plans for a retirement age of 68.

The state pension age rose to 66 last year, with two further rises planned, meaning that by 2046 those born on or after April 1977 would need to wait until 68 before they can draw the benefit.

However, the review will look at bringing forward that change by eight years, so that the increase is phased in between 2037 and 2039.

Author(s): Hilary Osborne

Publication Date: 15 Dec 2021

Publication Site: The Guardian

Education advocates: Pension savings system reinforces inequities in CT’s schools

Mary Pat Campbell

Link:https://ctmirror.org/2021/12/16/education-advocates-pension-savings-system-reinforces-inequities-in-cts-schools/

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Two Connecticut governors have tried — and failed — to shift some of the massive cost of teacher pensions onto municipalities, arguing it’s inherently unfair for the state to foot the entire bill.
Education equity advocates hope to resurrect that debate this year — with a big twist.
Rather than trying to bolster the state’s coffers, the Connecticut chapter of Education Reform Now (ERN) wants the state to bill the wealthiest school districts and use at least some of those resources to help the poorest communities.

….

Connecticut’s second-largest education-related expenditure  — about 7% of the General Fund or $1.44 billion this fiscal year — is the required annual contribution to the teachers’ pension fund. That hefty pension contribution consumes resources that normally would be spent on school operations or other core programs in the state budget.
For most states, this pension expense is much less. According to ERN, Connecticut is one of only seven states that spare towns from contributing toward teacher pension costs.

Author(s): Keith Phaneuf

Publication Date: 16 Dec 2021

Publication Site: CT Mirror

Thomas Bond Sprague (1830-1920)

Mary Pat Campbell

Link:https://mathshistory.st-andrews.ac.uk/Biographies/Sprague/

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Dr Sprague was the main person behind a mortality study covering the experience of twenty U. K. life offices. This study resulted in the Institute of Actuaries Life Tables (the so-called Twenty Offices Table) which was published in 1869 [2]. From this study, he produced, in 1879, the first Select Tables of Mortality [3] which were the first two-dimensional mortality tables ever published (the two dimensions being ‘insured duration’ i.e. the ‘select period’ and ‘age attained’). The ‘select period’ was five years.

Dr Sprague pioneered the important 1870 Life Insurance Companies Act [4] which was introduced following the notorious insolvencies of both the Albert and the European life assurance companies. The 1870 Act required:-

… an investigation into the financial condition of a life insurance company to be made regularly by an actuary,

required a separate “long-term fund” and required the:-

… preparation of a revenue account and balance sheet every year in prescribed form to be filed with the Board of Trade,

the latter being a public document. Dr Sprague was one of the foremost advocates of the principle of ‘Freedom with Publicity’ (i.e. documents available to the public) and was opposed to there being any Government regulation prescribing the manner of valuation of policy liabilities. He wrote the major 19th century work on the preparation of life office accounts in conformity with the 1870 Act [5].

Author(s): David O Forfar

Publication Date: accessed 9 Feb 2022

Publication Site: MacTutor History of Math Archives

U.S. Pathology and Laboratory Society Endorses NKF-ASN Joint Task Force

Mary Pat Campbell

Link:https://www.kidney.org/news/u-s-pathology-and-laboratory-society-leadership-endorses-nkf-asn-joint-task-force

Excerpt:

The final NKF-ASN Task Force report recommends:

  • The use of the CKD-EPI 2021 eGFR creatinine equation for calculating eGFRcr in adults.2,3 This new equation is recommended because a race coefficient is not included in its computation and reporting.  The CKD-EPI 2021 eGFR creatinine equation included diversity in its development and does not disproportionately affect any one group.3
  • National efforts are also underway to facilitate increased, routine, and timely use of cystatin C (CPT 82610), especially to further evaluate eGFRcr in adults who are at risk for or have chronic kidney disease, or in individuals with abnormally high or low muscle mass.  The CKD-EPI 2021 eGFR using creatinine and cystatin C (eGFRcr-cys) is more accurate, more closely approximates measured GFR and supports better clinical decisions than either marker alone.2,3   

Publication Date: 8 Feb 2022

Publication Site: National Kidney Foundation

Supplements: COVID-19; Racial and Ethnic Disparities: Chapter 13

Mary Pat Campbell

Link:https://adr.usrds.org/2021/supplements-covid-19-disparities/13-covid-19-supplement

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Among beneficiaries with CKD, mortality during COVID-19 hospitalization was approximately 40% during the first wave of the pandemic but decreased thereafter, reaching an average of 18% from July to December (Figure 13.10).

During all of 2020, the incidence of in-hospital death during COVID-19 hospitalizations was 21.5% among older Medicare beneficiaries with CKD, 18.8% among beneficiaries undergoing dialysis, and 19.3% among beneficiaries with a kidney transplant.

Between epidemiologic week 13 of 2020 and epidemiologic week 8 of 2021, the number of prevalent dialysis patients fell from 567,303 to 555,264, an unprecedented decline of over 2% (Figure 13.11).

Among patients undergoing dialysis, mortality was consistently elevated, relative to recent historical norms, between epidemiologic week 12 of 2020 and week 10 of 2021. Among patients with a kidney transplant, excess mortality was persistent through the second quarter of 2021 (Figure 13.12a).

The cumulative number of deaths among dialysis patients in 2020 was 18% higher than in 2019, while the cumulative number of deaths among transplant patients in 2020 was 41% higher than in 2019 (Figure 13.12b).

Publication Date: accessed 9 Feb 2022

Publication Site: U.S. Renal Data System

COVID-19 and its Impact on Kidney Patients Utilizing U.S. Dialysis Centers

Mary Pat Campbell

Link:https://www.kidney.org/news/covid-19-and-its-impact-kidney-patients-utilizing-u-s-dialysis-centers

Excerpt:

The National Kidney Foundation (NKF) and the American Society of Nephrology (ASN) stress the precarious position people with kidney failure, who are immunocompromised, face as the recent Omicron wave continues to spread among patients and staff at dialysis facilities. Cases of COVID-19 are causing serious illness, forcing shortened treatment times for patients, and exacerbating shortages in staff and supplies that impede access to this life-sustaining treatment. COVID-19’s impact on people with kidney diseases has resulted in the first decline in the number of patients on dialysis in the United States in the 50-year history of the Medicare ESRD Program.

…..

There are 783,000 individuals in the United States who have kidney failure, and just under 500,000 of these individuals require life-sustaining dialysis delivered in a dialysis center three times a week, four hours a day. During dialysis treatments, patients typically sit near other patients and staff in facilities that are not always well ventilated. Many of these patients are older, low-income, and from historically disadvantaged communities, and most have underlying conditions like diabetes and cardiovascular diseases.

Despite concerted efforts by dialysis organizations, nephrologists, and other clinicians to slow its spread, COVID-19 continues to run rampant through dialysis facilities. According to data from the US Renal Data System, 15.8% of all patients on dialysis in the United States had contracted COVID-19 as of the end of 2020. During the winter 2020 wave, weekly deaths due to COVID-19 peaked at nearly 20% and annual mortality during 2020 was 18% higher than in 2019.[1]

Despite these high rates of infection and mortality, dialysis patients were not prioritized for access to immunization when the vaccines became available a year ago even though evidence shows that the immune response to vaccination is blunted in dialysis patients. Furthermore, although antibody levels decline more rapidly in dialysis patients than in the general population[i], dialysis patients were not prioritized by the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) or the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) when third doses of the vaccine were approved in August.[2] In addition, dialysis patients were also excluded from the groups eligible to receive prophylactic long-acting antibody therapy targeting the SARS-CoV-2 virus. Lastly, the National Institutes of Health did not receive funding for COVID-19 research to help people with kidney diseases or failure in any of last year’s relief packages.

[1] https://adr.usrds.org/2021/supplements-covid-19-disparities/13-covid-19-supplement

Publication Date: 18 Jan 2022

Publication Site: National Kidney Foundation

Despite Rising Bond Yields the Yield Curve is Still Flattening

Mary Pat Campbell

Link:https://mishtalk.com/economics/despite-rising-bond-yields-the-yield-curve-is-still-flattening

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Economists like to watch the 2-10 spread because that is one of the most reliable recession indicators.

Seemingly, inversions are far away, but that is mostly an illusion.

The 2-10 spread has been sinking like a rock. That spread was 1.58 percentage points on March 19, 2021 as shown in the lead chart. It’s now down to 0.61 percentage points.

If the Fed gets in as little as two hikes, the 2-10 spread will invert as it typically does before a recession. 

Of course, the 10-year yields may keep rising, but the problem is 2-year yields have risen faster. 

Author(s): Mike Shedlock

Publication Date: 8 Feb 2022

Publication Site: Mish Talk

California financial audit arrives a year late and raises flags about unemployment benefits paid

Mary Pat Campbell

Link:https://reason.org/commentary/california-financial-audit-arrives-a-year-late-and-raises-flags-about-unemployment-benefits-paid/

Excerpt:

On Feb. 3, 2022, the state of California finally produced its audited financial statements for its fiscal year that ended June 30, 2020. The filing, known as an annual comprehensive financial report, was over a year late and came with an unpleasant surprise in the form of a qualified audit opinion.

State and local governments are normally expected to produce financial statements within six-to-nine months of the fiscal year’s end. California has now missed the nine-month municipal bond market filing deadline for three consecutive years. And, with less than two months to the deadline for its fiscal year 2021 financial reports (for the fiscal year that ended June 30, 2021), another late filing seems inevitable.

California’s financial reporting performance compares poorly with most other states. According to data from Truth in Accounting, the median U.S. state produced its 2020 annual comprehensive financial report 184 days after the end of its fiscal year. By contrast, California took 583 days, nearly 20 months, to file its annual comprehensive financial report for fiscal year 2020. For added perspective, it is worth noting that the Securities and Exchange Commission gives large corporations just 60 days to produce their audited financials.

Author(s): Marc Joffe

Publication Date: 7 Feb 2022

Publication Site: Reason

COVID-19 pandemic causes ‘broken heart’ syndrome cases to surge: researchers

Mary Pat Campbell

Link: https://www.foxnews.com/health/broken-heart-cases-surge-covid-pandemic-especially-women-researchers?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter

Excerpt:

Research has reportedly identified a spike in cases of Takotsubo cardiomyopathy, or “broken heart syndrome,” over the course of the coronavirus pandemic. 

Experts said the potentially fatal stress-induced heart condition is disproportionately affecting women.

“I don’t know how much we can really blame COVID, or how much of this is that we’re just recognizing more of it,” Dr. Noel Bairey Merz, director of the Barbra Streisand Heart Center at Cedars-Sinai in Los Angeles, told “Good Morning America” on Monday. “But, heart disease is the leading killer of women and all ages, including teenagers, midlife women and older women. This is just a component of that major killer. So, it’s really something that needs to be addressed.”

Merz said one in five of those who suffer from the heart-brain disorder will have another attack within a decade.

In an October news release, Cedars-Sinai shared Smidt Heart Institute research published in the Journal of the American Heart Association, which suggests that middle-aged and older women are being diagnosed up to 10 times more often than younger women or men of any age.

The study suggested that the condition has become more common, with incidences rising since well before coronavirus swept the globe. 

Author(s): Julia Musto

Publication Date: 8 Feb 2022

Publication Site: Fox News

Battle lines drawn over the future of UK’s biggest pension fund

Mary Pat Campbell

Link:https://www.theguardian.com/business/2022/feb/05/battle-lines-drawn-over-the-future-of-uks-biggest-pension-fund

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The UK’s biggest private pension scheme, the Universities Superannuation Scheme (USS), was no different: the custodian of the retirement savings of 470,000 university and college workers lost billions of pounds.

At its latest valuation, actuaries came up with an alarming conclusion: the assets of USS were only worth £67bn, leaving a huge deficit of £18bn compared to the liabilities it has promised to pay out in the future.

Yet the recovery was almost as extraordinary as the decline. Central banks pumped money into the economy, and tech companies in the US recorded astonishing gains. That helped USS assets back to more than £90bn at the end of January.

That recovery – and the controversial question of how the fund accounts for it – has put USS at the centre of a row that could result in university staff occupying picket lines across the country. The scheme will also be at the centre of a legal battle this month, with academics asking a court for permission to sue directors for not performing their duties.

….

 In a paper published in September, David Miles, professor of economics at Imperial College London and a former Bank of England monetary policymaker, and James Sefton, also an Imperial economics professor, argued that the risk of USS having insufficient funds to pay promised pensions was between 20% and 40%.

Simon Pilcher, chief executive of USS Investment Management, is in charge of choosing the actual investments. “Sadly, one can’t project the past into the future,” he said.

“Today, we think it is reasonable to expect lower returns going forward than we’ve experienced in the past, because it’s those higher returns that have driven us to these high prices.”

Author(s): Jasper Jolly

Publication Date: 5 Feb 2022

Publication Site: The Guardian