Month: January 2022

Non-Linear Correlation Matrix — the much needed technique which nobody talks about

Mary Pat Campbell

Link: https://towardsdatascience.com/non-linear-correlation-matrix-the-much-needed-technique-which-nobody-talks-about-132bc02ce632

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Just looking at these dots, we see that for engine size between 60 and 200, there is a linear increase in the weight. However, after an engine size of 200, the weight does not increase linearly but is leveling. So, this means that the relation between engine size and weight is not strictly linear.

We can also confirm the non-linear nature by performing a linear curve fit as shown below with a blue line. You will observe that the points marked in the red circle are completely off the straight line indicating that a linear line does not correctly capture the pattern.

We started by looking at the color of the cell which indicated a strong correlation. However, we concluded that it is not true when we looked at the scatter plot. So where is the catch?

The problem is in the name of the technique. As it is titled a correlation matrix, we tend to use it to interpret all types of correlation. The technique is based on Pearson correlation, which is strictly measuring only linear correlation. So the more appropriate name of the technique should be linear correlation matrix.

Author(s): Pranay Dave

Publication Date: 4 Jan 2022

Publication Site: Towards Data Science

Fossil Fuel Investments Are Burning California Pensioners

Mary Pat Campbell

Link: https://www.dailyposter.com/fossil-fuel-investments-are-burning-california-pensioners/

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California’s two biggest pension funds have invested a staggering $43 billion in fossil fuel companies, and their opposition to divesting from the industry — including fighting legislation that would have stopped them investing in firms involved with the controversial Dakota Access Pipeline (DAPL) — has cost retirees and taxpayers billions, research shows.

The findings hammer home the fact that the divestment movement isn’t just about protecting the planet from the worst effects of climate change. With the oil, gas, and coal industries all on the decline, pension funds’ refusal to divest from fossil fuels is also endangering the retirement savings of teachers, government employees, and other rank-and-file public workers who have paid into these funds.

….

While it is common knowledge that fossil fuel stocks have underperformed the broader stock market, large bank stocks have been lackluster as well — including the banks that helped finance DAPL.

If CalPERS and CalSTRS had not opposed the original DAPL divestment legislation, they could have instead put pressure on the companies involved not to move forward with the pipeline, and such efforts might have been enough to stop the project, given the pipeline project’s turbulent history.

Author(s): MATTHEW CUNNINGHAM-COOK, ANDREW PEREZ

Publication Date: 11 Jan 2022

Publication Site: The Daily Poster

COVID-19 Hospital Squeeze May Have Killed More Than 7,500 Last Week

Mary Pat Campbell

Link:https://www.thinkadvisor.com/2022/01/03/covid-19-hospital-squeeze-may-have-killed-more-than-7500-last-week/

Excerpt:

The latest numbers in the early CDC death data are for the week ending Dec. 25.

The early data figures include information about fewer than one-third of the deaths occurring that week.

Those figures imply that the gap between the number of deaths caused directly by COVID-19 and the number caused by indirect pandemic effects narrowed.

Author(s): Allison Bell

Publication Date: 3 Jan 2022

Publication Site: Think Advisor

5 States Where Dying People Are Most Likely to Be Working Age

Mary Pat Campbell

Link: https://www.thinkadvisor.com/2021/12/21/5-states-where-dying-people-are-the-most-likely-to-be-working-age/

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Whatever the omicron variant of COVID-19 does to U.S. life insurance insurance claims, the delta variant and its siblings have been continuing to drive up the number of deaths of working-age Americans.

Some life and health insurers reported that an enormous surge of COVID-19 deaths appeared in September and then seemed to end quickly.

A look at weekly death count data from the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention shows that, from 2015 through 2019, about 12,900 people ages 25 through 64 died, from all causes, in a typical week.

In September, the number climbed more than 7,000, or more than 50%, over the median.

That total includes both people killed directly by COVID-19 and by the effects of the pandemic on the health care system, the economy and U.S. society as a whole.

Author(s): Allison Bell

Publication Date: 3 Jan 2022

Publication Site: Think Advisor

Bond Yields Surge to Start 2022, What’s Ahead?

Mary Pat Campbell

Link: https://mishtalk.com/economics/bond-yields-surge-to-start-2022-whats-ahead

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I find the prospect of 7 rate hikes in 2022 more than a bit amusing.  Here’s a good way of looking at things.

0 to 2 hikes: 33.8%

3 hikes: 30.2% 

4 or more hikes: 36.0%

The median projection is now a bit more than 3 hikes this year. 4 and 2 rate hikes are at nearly equal odds, but 5, 6, an 7 hikes rated a combined 13% vs 0 to 1 hike at a combined 10.8%

The change in rate hike odds today reflect the surge in yields that also happened today.

Author(s): Mike Shedlock

Publication Date: 3 Jan 2022

Publication Site: Mish Talk

Lightfoot messages indicate how flippantly state government stuck Chicago with higher pension cost – Wirepoints Quickpoint

Mary Pat Campbell

Link: https://wirepoints.org/lightfoot-messages-indicate-how-flippantly-state-government-stuck-chicago-with-higher-pension-cost-wirepoints-quicktake/

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You may recall earlier this year when the General Assembly passed a bill that Gov. JB Pritzker signed to increase certain pension benefits for Chicago firefighters. The new law is expected to cost Chicago some $850 million and could drop the funded status from what was an already abysmal 18% down to an even-worse 16%.

Well, it appears that Illinois Senate leadership didn’t even bother to talk to Chicago Mayor Lori Lightfoot before mandating that additional burden.

The Chicago Tribune has released Lightfoot email and text messages it obtained on a number of matters. One went from Lightfoot to Senate President Don Harmon. “A courtesy call regarding the fire pension bill would have been helpful, particularly since there is no funding for it,” Lightfoot said. “When that pension fund collapses, I will be talking a lot about this vote.”

Author(s): Mark Glennon

Publication Date: 31 Dec 2021

Publication Site: Wirepoints

Indiana life insurance CEO says deaths are up 40% among people ages 18-64

Mary Pat Campbell

Link:https://www.thecentersquare.com/indiana/indiana-life-insurance-ceo-says-deaths-are-up-40-among-people-ages-18-64/article_71473b12-6b1e-11ec-8641-5b2c06725e2c.html

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The head of Indianapolis-based insurance company OneAmerica said the death rate is up a stunning 40% from pre-pandemic levels among working-age people.

“We are seeing, right now, the highest death rates we have seen in the history of this business – not just at OneAmerica,” the company’s CEO Scott Davison said during an online news conference this week. “The data is consistent across every player in that business.”

OneAmerica is a $100 billion insurance company that has had its headquarters in Indianapolis since 1877. The company has approximately 2,400 employees and sells life insurance, including group life insurance to employers in the state.

Davison said the increase in deaths represents “huge, huge numbers,” and that’s it’s not elderly people who are dying, but “primarily working-age people 18 to 64” who are the employees of companies that have group life insurance plans through OneAmerica.

“And what we saw just in third quarter, we’re seeing it continue into fourth quarter, is that death rates are up 40% over what they were pre-pandemic,” he said.

Author(s): Margaret Menge

Publication Date: 1 Jan 2022

Publication Site: The Center Square

Comptroller Mendoza claims Illinois paying its bills but needs more federal bailout to avoid a big one – Wirepoints Quickpoint

Mary Pat Campbell

Link: https://wirepoints.org/comptroller-mendoza-claims-illinois-paying-its-bills-but-needs-more-federal-bailout-to-avoid-a-big-one-wirepoints-quickpoint/

Excerpt:

Most states have either repaid what they borrowed for their unemployment funds or never borrowed in the first place. Illinois is one of ten states with loans still outstanding. The other states that joined Mendoza’s request to the Treasury are, like Illinois, heavily Democratic — New York, Colorado, Pennsylvania, Connecticut, New Jersey, Massachusetts and Minnesota. A recent research report detailed how federal pandemic bailout money, in general, has gone disproportionately to Democratic states.

As for Mendoza’s claim that Illinois is paying its bill, that’s simply not true. The state entirely ignored the hole in its unemployment fund in its current budget and future budget forecasts. In reality, the state will not just have to repay the loan but must also restore the fund to a sound balance, which will probably take another $1.5 billion at least, which was the balance before the pandemic. Nor does Illinois pay its full bill for the 800-pound gorilla, pensions. Year after year it contributes far less to its pension funds than actuaries say is required to prevent unfunded liabilities from growing.

Author(s): Mark Glennon

Publication Date: 3 Jan 2022

Publication Site: Wirepoints

In the Next 10 Years, Nearly All the Population Increase Will Be Age Group 65+

Mary Pat Campbell

Link: https://mishtalk.com/economics/in-the-next-10-years-nearly-all-the-population-increase-will-be-age-group-65

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The above stats from Census Bureau Projects U.S. and World Populations on New Year’s Day.

Looking ahead to the next decade the percentage of those 60 and over will rise from 23.29% to 25.93%. 

Meanwhile, the prime working age population age 20-59 declines from 52.06% to 50.75%.

And this is happening with public union pension plans severely stressed despite huge stock market gains. 

Author(s): Mike Shedlock

Publication Date: 3 Jan 2022

Publication Site: Mish Talk

Revisiting The ‘Retirement Crisis’ And Retirement Legislation In 2022 – What’s In Store In The New Year?

Mary Pat Campbell

Link: https://www.forbes.com/sites/ebauer/2021/12/31/revisiting-the-retirement-crisis-and-retirement-legislation-in-2022whats-in-store-in-the-new-year/

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First, we need to keep a distinction in mind between efforts to ensure the elderly do not suffer actual material deprivation, whether that’s lack of nutritious food or adequate housing or medical needs, for instance, and efforts to help Americans plan for retirement and alleviate their expressed worries about the unknowns of retirement.

Second, issues of well-being, such as social isolation, and larger questions of the “right” form of provision of long-term care assistance, are not simple issues of finances but are nonetheless important as Americans age, and these topics should not be drowned out by a “retirement crisis” narrative. It should also go without saying that we will urgently need to turn our attention to the Medicare system as well.

And, third, in one crucial respect our models may fail us: experts have worked out a set of recommendations for asset allocation and income spend-down in retirement, and a set of projections for building those models, which fall apart if our new low-interest world continues, Japan-like, rather than being a temporary situation that resolves itself as we recover from the pandemic. Whether this is a result of government policies or an inevitable consequence of the changing economy, this could upend both Biggs’ projections of retiree well-being and the path to retirement security envisioned by legislation like the SECURE Act 2.0.

Author(s): Elizabeth Bauer

Publication Date: 31 Dec 2021

Publication Site: Forbes