Month: October 2021

Emerging Technologies and their Impact on Actuarial Science

Mary Pat Campbell

Link:https://www.soa.org/resources/research-reports/2021/emerging-technologies-and-their-impact-on-actuarial-science/

Full report: https://www.soa.org/globalassets/assets/files/resources/research-report/2021/2021-emerging-technologies-report.pdf

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Excerpt:

Technologies that have reached widespread adoption today:
o Dynamic Collaboration Tools – e.g., Microsoft Teams, Slack, Miro – Most companies are now using this
type of technology. Some are using the different functionalities (e.g., digital whiteboarding, project
management tools, etc.) more fully than others at this time.
• Technologies that are reaching early majority adoption today:
o Business Intelligence Tools (Data Visualization component) – e.g., Tableau, Power BI — Most
respondents have started their journey in using these tools, with many having implemented solutions.
While a few respondents are lagging in its adoption, some companies have scaled applications of this
technology to all actuaries. BI tools will change and accelerate the way actuaries diagnose results,
understand results, and communicate insights to stakeholders.
o ML/AI on structured data – e.g., R, Python – Most respondents have started their journey in using
these techniques, but the level of maturity varies widely. The average maturity is beyond the piloting
phase amongst our respondents. These are used for a wide range of applications in actuarial functions,
including pricing business, modeling demand, performing experience studies, predicting lapses to
support sales and marketing, producing individual claims reserves in P&C, supporting accelerated
underwriting and portfolio scoring on inforce blocks.
o Documentation Generators (Markdown) – e.g., R Markdown, Sphinx – Many respondents have started
using these tools, but maturity level varies widely. The average maturity for those who have started
amongst our respondents is beyond the piloting phase. As the use of R/Python becomes more prolific
amongst actuaries, the ability to simultaneously generate documentation and reports for developed
applications and processes will increase in importance.
o Low-Code ETL and Low-Code Programming — e.g., Alteryx, Azure Data Factory – Amongst respondents
who provided responses, most have started their journey in using these tools, but the level of maturity
varies widely. The average maturity is beyond the piloting phase with our respondents. Low-code ETL
tools will be useful where traditional ETL tools requiring IT support are not sufficient for business
needs (e.g., too difficult to learn quickly for users or reviewers, ad-hoc processes) or where IT is not
able to provision views of data quickly enough.
o Source Control Management – e.g., Git, SVN – A sizeable proportion of the respondents are currently
using these technologies. Amongst these respondents, solutions have already been implemented.
These technologies will become more important in the context of maintaining code quality for
programming-based models and tools such as those developed in R/Python. The value of the
technology will be further enhanced with the adoption of DevOps practices and tools, which blur the
lines between Development and Operations teams to accelerate the deployment of
applications/programs

Author(s):

Nicole Cervi, Deloitte
Arthur da Silva, FSA, ACIA, Deloitte
Paul Downes, FIA, FCIA, Deloitte
Marwah Khalid, Deloitte
Chenyi Liu, Deloitte
Prakash Rajgopal, Deloitte
Jean-Yves Rioux, FSA, CERA, FCIA, Deloitte
Thomas Smith, Deloitte
Yvonne Zhang, FSA, FCIA, Deloitte

Publication Date: SOA

Publication Site: October 2021

The 80% Pension Funding Myth

Mary Pat Campbell

Link:https://www.actuary.org/node/14645

Excerpt:

Using an 80% funded ratio as a benchmark for whether pension plans are healthy is inappropriate.

No single level of funding defines a line between a “healthy” and an “unhealthy” pension plan.

Pension plans are generally better evaluated on the strategy in place to attain a funded ratio of 100% within a reasonable period of time.

The financial health of a pension plan depends on many factors in addition to funded status— including the size of any shortfall compared with the resources of the plan sponsor.

Projections under a range of scenarios can be particularly useful in evaluating the plan’s expected funding trajectory and assessing plan health.

Author(s): Pension Practice Council

Publication Date: October 2021

Publication Site: American Academy of Actuaries

Introducing the UK Covid-19 Crowd Forecasting Challenge

Mary Pat Campbell

Link: https://www.crowdforecastr.org/2021/05/11/uk-challenge/

Twitter thread of results: https://twitter.com/nikosbosse/status/1449043922794188807

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Excerpt:

Let’s start with the data. The UK Forecasting Challenge spanned a long period of exponential growth as well as a sudden drop in cases at the end of July 3

Especially this peak was hard to predict and no forecaster really saw it coming. Red: aggregated forecast from different weeks, grey: individual participants. The second picture shows the range for which participants were 50% and 95% confident they would cover the true value

….

So what have we learned? – Human forecasts can be valuable to inform public health policy and can sometimes even beat computer models – Ensembles almost always perform better than individuals – Non-experts can be just as good as experts – recruiting participants is hard

Author(s): Nikos Bosse

Publication Date: Accessed 17 Oct 2021, twitter thread 15 Oct 21

Publication Site: Crowdforecastr

KFF COVID-19 Vaccine Monitor: September 2021

Mary Pat Campbell

Link:https://www.kff.org/coronavirus-covid-19/poll-finding/kff-covid-19-vaccine-monitor-september-2021/

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Excerpt:

In the midst of a “third wave” of the U.S. COVID-19 pandemic driven largely by the highly contagious Delta variant, more than seven in ten U.S. adults (72%) now report that they have received at least one dose of a COVID-19 vaccine, up from 67% in July. An additional 2% say they plan to get the vaccine as soon as possible. The share who say they want to “wait and see” how the vaccine works for others before getting it themselves dropped to 7% in September. Four percent of adults this month say they will get vaccinated only if required for work, school, or other activities and 12% say they will “definitely not” get the vaccine.

The largest increases in self-reported COVID-19 vaccination rates between July and September were among younger adults (up 11 percentage points among 18-29 year-olds) and Hispanic adults (up 12 percentage points). The largest remaining gap in vaccination rates is by partisanship, with 90% of Democrats saying they have gotten at least one dose compared to 68% of independents and 58% of Republicans. In addition, large differences in self-reported vaccination rates remain between older and younger adults, between those with and without college degrees, and between those with higher and lower incomes, while rural adults continue to lag behind those living in urban and suburban areas. Non-elderly adults without health insurance also continue to report one of the lowest COVID-19 vaccination rates of any group (54%).

Author(s): Liz Hamel Follow @lizhamel on Twitter , Lunna Lopes , Grace Sparks Follow @gracesparks on Twitter , Ashley Kirzinger Follow @AshleyKirzinger on Twitter , Audrey Kearney Follow @audrey__kearney on Twitter , Mellisha Stokes , and Mollyann Brodie Follow @Mollybrodie on Twitter

Publication Date: 28 Sept 2021

Publication Site: Kaiser Family Foundation

The Racial Gap Among the Vaccinated Has Essentially Disappeared

Mary Pat Campbell

Link:https://reason.com/2021/10/14/the-racial-gap-among-the-vaccinated-has-essentially-disappeared/

Excerpt:

According to a new survey from the Kaiser Family Foundation, as the rate of U.S. adults who report having received at least one dose of the COVID-19 vaccines continues to climb, the rates among racial groups are now basically identical, comprising 71 percent of white adults, 70 percent of black adults, and 73 percent of Hispanic adults. President Joe Biden’s proposed mandate for all private-sector employees to be vaccinated has yet to take effect, so this is a good sign for the efficacy of general persuasion over a top-down mandate.

Author(s): Joe Lancaster

Publication Date: 14 Oct 2021

Publication Site: Reason

Russia breaks record again for COVID-19 deaths, infections

Mary Pat Campbell

Link:https://apnews.com/article/coronavirus-pandemic-business-russia-pandemics-vladimir-putin-b9fcbf2f0391771c5248f67b6491804e?utm_medium=AP_Europe&utm_campaign=SocialFlow&utm_source=Twitter

Excerpt:

Russia’s daily tolls of coronavirus infections and deaths surged to another record on Friday, a quickly mounting figure that has put a severe strain on the country’s health care system.

The government’s coronavirus task force reported 32,196 new confirmed coronavirus cases and 999 deaths in the past 24 hours.

The record for daily COVID-19 deaths in Russia has been broken repeatedly over the past few weeks, as fatalities steadily approach 1,000 in a single day. It comes amid increasing infections and a reluctance by authorities to toughen restrictions that would further cripple the economy.

The government said this week that about 43 million Russians, or just about 29% of the country’s nearly 146 million people, are fully vaccinated. Authorities have tried to speed up the pace of vaccination with lotteries, bonuses and other incentives, but widespread vaccine skepticism and conflicting signals from officials stymied the efforts.

Author(s): VLADIMIR ISACHENKOV

Publication Date: 15 Oct 2021

Publication Site: AP

In one of the country’s most vaccinated places, masks were still key to slowing Covid-19

Mary Pat Campbell

Link:https://www.cnn.com/2021/10/01/health/covid-vaccine-colorado-tourist-town/

Excerpt:

San Juan County, Colorado, can boast that 99.9% of its eligible population has received at least one dose of covid-19 vaccine, putting it in the top 10 counties in the nation, according to data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

If vaccines were the singular armor against covid’s spread, then on paper, San Juan County, with its 730 or so residents on file, would be one of the most bulletproof places in the nation.

Yet the past few months have shown the complexity of this phase of the pandemic. Even in an extremely vaccinated place, the shots alone aren’t enough because geographic boundaries are porous, vaccine effectiveness may be waning over time and the delta variant is highly contagious. Infectious-disease experts say masks are still necessary to control the spread of the virus.

Author(s): Rae Ellen Bichell, KHN

Publication Date: 1 Oct 2021

Publication Site: CNN

Everyone Is Urging SEC To Stop Public Pension Mismanagement, Looting By Wall Street

Mary Pat Campbell

Link:https://www.forbes.com/sites/edwardsiedle/2021/10/07/everyone-is-urging-sec-to-stop-public-pension-mismanagement–looting-by-wall-street/

Excerpt:

An investigation of the Chicago Policemen Annuity and Benefit Fund was funded by members of the Chicago Police Department Pension Board Accountability Group. According to the report, the CPABF is one of the worst funded public pension plans in the U.S. today with a funding ratio at year-end of only 23%. According to the report, “The toxic mix of defunding the police pension, conflicted and high-risk investments, and poor management of the pension cry out for greater transparency and accountability.”

As Arthur Levitt, Chairman of the SEC stated back in 1999 in connection with the Commission’s review of pay-to-play practices at public pensions, “Today, public funds hold more than $2 trillion of assets. These assets do not belong to the elected officials, and they do not belong to the trustees. They belong to the tens of thousands of firefighters, ambulance drivers, city clerks, bus drivers and other public employees who make our communities work. “Their interests,” as my father said twenty years ago, “must be paramount in investment of that money.”

The tremendous importance of public funds demands that they be managed with complete honesty and integrity and for the sole benefit of their beneficiaries.”

Author(s): Edward Siedle

Publication Date: 7 October 2021

Publication Site: Forbes

No, Lightfoot’s Chicago Budget Does Not Make An ‘Actuarial’ Pension Contribution

Mary Pat Campbell

Link:https://www.forbes.com/sites/ebauer/2021/10/10/no-lightfoots-chicago-budget-does-not-make-an-actuarial-pension-contribution/

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Now, what she identifies as an “accomplishment,” having finished the climb up the pension ramp, is actually a state law that left her no choice in the matter. But that’s not the only incorrect part of her statement. Even having finally left the ramp behind, the plans are not funded on an “actuarially determined basis.” They are funded based on the Illinois legislature’s decision of a funding schedule which, for the police and fire plans, is sufficient to attain 90% funding in the year 2055, and for the Municipal and Laborers’ plan, not until 2058. Yes, if you do the math, that’s 34 and 37 years from now.

In fact, the plans’ actuarial valuations calculate a figure that’s labelled the Actuarially Determined Contribution. For the Fire plan (19% funded), the city’s contribution was only 79% of the ADC; for the Police plan (23% funded), the city’s contribution was only 75% of the ADC. And these are the two plans which reached the top of the ramp last year!

Author(s): Elizabeth Bauer

Publication Date: 10 Oct 2021

Publication Site: Forbes

Flood-Threat Assessment Finds Danger Goes Far Beyond U.S. Homes

Mary Pat Campbell

Link:https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2021-flood-risk-critical-infrastructure/

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Excerpt:

Nearly a quarter of U.S. critical infrastructure—utilities, airports, police stations and more—is at risk of being inundated by flooding, according to a new report by First Street Foundation, a Brooklyn nonprofit dedicated to making climate risk more visible to the public.

Roughly 14% of Americans’ properties face direct risk from major storms, but the study shows danger extends far from those property lines.

The authors say the report provides the first holistic understanding of flood risk beyond individual property level. In addition to critical infrastructure, the report assesses commercial buildings, millions of miles of roads and socially important institutions such as schools and museums.

“Even if your home is far from the risk of flooding or forest fires, you may not so easily escape the systemic impacts from vulnerable critical infrastructure that sometimes extends hundreds of miles,” said Jesse Keenan, a climate-change and real-estate expert at Tulane University in New Orleans.

Author(s): Leslie Kaufman, Rachael Dottle, Mira Rojanasakul

Publication Date: 11 October 2021

Publication Site: Bloomberg

California Extreme heat deaths show climate change risks

Mary Pat Campbell

Link:https://www.latimes.com/projects/california-extreme-heat-deaths-show-climate-change-risks/

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Excerpt:

Between 2010 and 2019, the hottest decade on record, California’s official data from death certificates attributed 599 deaths to heat exposure.

But a Times analysis found that the true toll is probably six times higher. An examination of mortality data from this period shows that thousands more people died on extremely hot days than would have been typical during milder weather. All told, the analysis estimates that extreme heat caused about 3,900 deaths.

….

California’s undercount is one of the ways it overlooks the threat posed by heat waves, even as climate change delivers them more frequently, more intensely and with deadlier consequences. Other states are moving with greater urgency to confront this public health challenge that disproportionately imperils the elderly and vulnerable.

Extreme heat did not suddenly become a threat to Californians’ lives. The Times found that state leaders have ignored years of warnings from within their own agencies that heat was becoming more dangerous. Data reviewed by The Times show heat-related hospital visits increasing in some parts of California, including Los Angeles County, for at least the last 15 years.

Github: https://github.com/datadesk/extreme-heat-excess-deaths-analysis

Author(s): Anna M. Phillips, Tony Barboza, Ruben Vives, Sean Greene

Publication Date: 7 Oct 2021

Publication Site: LA Times

Here’s the Gender Pay Gap at 10,000 U.K. Employers

Mary Pat Campbell

Link:https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2021-uk-gender-pay-gap/

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Excerpt:

Women in finance in the U.K. still make significantly less than men. While the gender pay gap at financial firms in the country narrowed slightly last year, overall the industry continues to have the biggest disparity.

Men working in finance and insurance made 25% more than women last year, down from 28% in 2019, a Bloomberg News analysis of government data shows. The pay gap is especially wide in investment banking, where some of the highest-paid employees work.

It is the fourth straight year that finance has led the industry rankings, showing that executives are finding it difficult to shrink the gap. Mining and quarrying had the second-biggest pay gap at 23% as the commodity boom boosted the income of workers, who are largely male.

Author(s): Neil Callahan

Publication Date: 6 Oct 2021

Publication Site: Bloomberg