Month: September 2021

How to Stop Politicians From Cooking the Books

Mary Pat Campbell

Link: https://www.wsj.com/articles/budget-reform-deficit-government-spending-3-5-trillion-reconciliation-bill-fasb-biden-11631465087

Excerpt:

The federal government ran budget surpluses from 1998 to 2001. Yet the national debt went up in every one of those four years. How can debt go up when you’re running surpluses? Easy, borrow the surpluses then flowing into the Social Security Trust Fund and call it income. Any corporate CEO who tried this stunt would go to jail. But no CEO would try because Wall Street made such boldface accounting fraud impossible more than a century ago.

…..

How can we stop politicians from so casually lying to their stockholders (you and me) for their own short-term political benefit and to the country’s long-term financial detriment? What’s needed is the equivalent of the reforms forced on corporations 140 years ago.

One justification for the Federal Reserve is to keep the power to print money out of the hands of politicians. A Federal Accounting Board would keep the power to cook the books out of their hands as well. Like the Fed, it would be run by a board of seven members, all professional accountants of long experience, serving 14-year terms. They could be removed only for cause. One member would be appointed chairman, serving a four-year term.

The board would take over the duties of the Congressional Budget Office, and the White House Office of Management and Budget would be reduced to formulating the annual budget. The board would estimate future revenue and the costs of all legislation. It would also set the rules for how the federal books must be kept (no calling borrowed money “income”), and would determine if they are accurate and complete, as a CPA does for corporate books.

Author(s): John Steele Gordon

Publication Date: 12 September 2021

Publication Site: Wall Street Journal

Guest Commentary | Politicians’ next pension ‘fix’: Gambling with your money

Mary Pat Campbell

Link: https://www.news-gazette.com/opinion/guest-commentary/guest-commentary-politicians-next-pension-fix-gambling-with-your-money/article_7865780f-7ed8-5c1e-8cc5-1ee4e43ca3cb.html#new_tab

Excerpt:

Gambling on the stock market to get out of financial troubles. It’s a fool’s game, but that’s exactly what some politicians in Illinois are considering now to address their cities’ growing pension crises. Lawmakers want to borrow money from the bond market to pay down pension debts by issuing what are known as pension-obligation bonds.

The borrowing scheme is a bit more complicated than the household example, but in essence, pension-obligation bonds are all about taking out a loan, then investing that money and hoping the returns beat out the costs of the loan.

It’s a lose-lose game for taxpayers. If politicians get it right, governments will have extra money to spend and grow even bigger. And if politicians get the bets wrong, they’ll come after taxpayers to pay off their gambling losses.

That’s one of the reasons why national organizations like the Government Finance Officers Association say “state and local governments should not issue POBs.”

Author(s): Ted Dabrowski and John Klingner

Publication Date: 12 September 2021

Publication Site: The News-Gazette

Jim Dey | After a year, Teachers’ Retirement System’s dirty laundry put on display

Mary Pat Campbell

Link: https://www.news-gazette.com/opinion/columns/jim-dey-after-a-year-teachers-retirement-systems-dirty-laundry-put-on-display/article_f9668f4b-1a9f-512f-b2b4-e04a58b7b08d.html#new_tab

Excerpt:

There was a personnel earthquake in the summer of 2020 at the Teachers’ Retirement System in Springfield.

Ultimately, five high-ranking employees were removed from their positions, including executive director Richard Ingram. The tumult generated clouds of uncertainly that only recently started to clear, revealing improper and possibly criminal behavior.

Although mum at first, TRS officials recently released their first lengthy statement about what occurred, disclosing that a new employee purposely maintained a conflict of interest that he falsely claimed to have ended.

…..

The OEIG report states the scandal dates back to 2018, when the TRS “began the process of constructing a new pension system that it called the Gemini Project.” Urbanek said the Gemini system recently went online.

That required hiring outside information technology professionals. Singh and his company — Singh 3 Consulting — were initially hired as a contractor. But in 2019, the TRS hired Singh as a permanent employee, the hiring predicated on Singh terminating his relationship with his company.

He told the TRS he had done so. But no one apparently ever checked, because subsequent investigations revealed Singh remained president and chief executive officer.

Author(s): Jim Dey

Publication Date: 12 September 2021

Publication Site: The News-Gazette

10 States Didn’t Pay Off Unemployment Loans Ahead of Interest Deadline

Mary Pat Campbell

Link: https://www.route-fifty.com/finance/2021/09/10-states-didnt-pay-unemployment-loans-ahead-interest-deadline/185172/

Graphic:

Excerpt:

At least four states paid back money in the last week they borrowed from the federal government to cover unemployment benefits—narrowly avoiding additional interest on the loans.

Hawaii, Nevada, Ohio and West Virginia announced the loan repayments within the last week. A remaining 10 states have a combined outstanding balance of more than $45 billion that they will now begin to accrue interest on, according to the Treasury Department.

When states exhaust their unemployment trust funds, they are allowed to borrow money from the federal government to ensure benefits continue to be paid. Twenty-two states took out what are referred to as Title XII advances during 2020. The loans were initially interest free, but starting Monday, states with outstanding loans began to accrue 2.3% interest on the borrowed sums.

Author(s): Andrea Noble

Publication Date: 7 September 2021

Publication Site: Route Fifty

Virginia Public Pensions Make a Direct Bet on Cryptocurrencies

Mary Pat Campbell

Link: https://finance.yahoo.com/news/virginia-public-pensions-direct-bet-163646280.html

Excerpt:

The Fairfax County Police Officers Retirement System and Fairfax County Employees’ Retirement System are planning to invest, pending board approvals, a total of $50 million in Parataxis Capital Management LLC’s main fund, which buys various digital tokens and cryptocurrency derivatives.

The outlays come on the heels of the Fairfax funds — which together manage about $7.15 billion — investing several times in Morgan Creek Asset Management funds, and, earlier this year, in crypto venture firm Blockchain Capital. While some of these investments ended up going into coins like Bitcoin, the majority was invested into technology startups, so Fairfax considered them venture-capital investments. Parataxis, with its focus on actual coins, is different.

….

But that same volatility can lead to outsized returns, which have been one reason for Fairfax’s expanded investment. Molnar’s $1.95 billion police retirement fund was planning for 2% exposure to crypto via Morgan Creek and Blockchain Capital, but at the end of June crypto accounted for 7% of assets, due to appreciation, she said. Although Molnar couldn’t discuss exact appreciation, crypto “was not an insignificant contributor to performance” in the second quarter, she said.

Author(s): Olga Kharif

Publication Date: 10 September 2021

Publication Site: Yahoo Finance

Libor Transition Stokes Sales of Risky Corporate Debt

Mary Pat Campbell

Link: https://www.wsj.com/articles/libor-transition-stokes-sales-of-risky-corporate-debt-11631451601

Excerpt:

Managers of collateralized loan obligations — securities made up of bundled loans with junk credit ratings — are rushing to close deals ahead of the year-end move away from the London interbank offered rate. The interest-rate benchmark underpins trillions of dollars of financial contracts but was scheduled for phaseout after a manipulation scandal.

That is helping push CLO sales to records. U.S. issuance topped $19.2 billion in August, a monthly record in data going back a decade, according to S&P Global Market Intelligence’s LCD.

…..

A wave of CLO refinancings this year allowed some managers to include fallback language shifting to SOFR in their documents, analysts said. But for other deals, CLO managers and investors must negotiate that changeover, which could create conflicts if they have different rate preferences.

Disruptions to the transition could increase the extra yield, or spread, that investors’ demand to hold triple-A rated CLO debt during the fourth quarter of this year, depending on how quickly the loan market transitions and how new CLO deals and investors position themselves, said Citi analysts in a June note.

SOFR is based on the cost of transactions in the market for overnight repurchase agreements, where large banks and hedge funds borrow or lend to one another using U.S. Treasurys as collateral. Unlike Libor, which tends to rise during periods of market stress, it doesn’t adjust for shifts in credit.

During last year’s spring selloff, the difference between three-month Libor and SOFR rose to 1.4 percentage points at its peak, according to BofA. That means CLO debtholders received a higher rate than what they would have if their bonds were linked to SOFR.

Author(s): Sebastian Pellejero

Publication Date: 12 September 2021

Publication Site: Wall Street Journal

Covid-19 Could Become Like the Flu if More People Get Vaccinated

Mary Pat Campbell

Link: https://www.wsj.com/articles/covid-19-could-become-like-the-flu-if-more-people-get-vaccinated-11631439002

Excerpt:

Covid-19 might become a routine illness like a common cold or the flu one day, virologists and epidemiologists say. But it will take a lot to get there, and the ferocious spread of the Delta variant that has filled hospitals again shows how challenging that path could be.

More than 20 months after the pandemic began, people around the world are having to change the way they think about a disease that many public-health authorities once believed they could conquer. A terrifying emergency has become a long, grinding haul.

The supercontagious Delta variant has made the virus virtually impossible to get rid of. It has fueled surges in cases across the globe, even in countries like Australia that had largely kept the pandemic out.

…..

For Covid-19 to become mild, most people will need some immunity, which studies have shown reduces the severity of the disease. Infections provide some immunity, but that comes with the risk of severe illness, death and further spread of the virus, compared with vaccines. People could become vulnerable to SARS-CoV-2 if that immunity erodes or is weak, or if the virus mutates.

….

A future Covid-19 could be less deadly than the flu, which kills up to a half-million people a year globally, because the most widely used Covid-19 vaccines are better than flu vaccines, said Dr. Garcia-Sastre, an influenza expert. The disease could still remain serious for people with weaker immune systems, doctors said.

Author(s): Betsy McKay

Publication Date: 12 September 2021

Publication Site: Wall Street Journal

Report Claims Taxpayers Are Paying Millions More Than Needed In Unnecessary Fees For Chicago Police Pension Fund

Mary Pat Campbell
Report Claims Taxpayers Are Paying Millions More Than Needed In Unnecessary Fees For Chicago Police Pension Fund

Link: https://chicago.cbslocal.com/2021/08/31/chicago-police-pension-fund-unncecessary-fees-underfunding-report/

Excerpt:

A scathing report has been issued about Chicago’s police pension fund, claiming taxpayers are paying millions of dollars more than needed in unnecessary fees.

Financial auditor Chris Tobe released a report Tuesday, three months after a group of retired officers hired him to review the management of the Policemen’s Annuity & Benefit Fund of Chicago.

….

Tobe said the police pension fund is one of the most underfunded in the country.

He said those hidden fees should set off alarms for taxpayers.

“The financials claim around $7 million a year, but I’ve estimated over $70 million – 10 times that amount – paid out in no-bid contracts to mostly what we call private equity hedge funds,” Tobe said.

Publication Date: 31 August 2021

Publication Site: CBS Chicago

Chicago Police Pension Forensic Audit Ends With Disturbing Findings

Mary Pat Campbell

Link: https://www.forbes.com/sites/edwardsiedle/2021/09/03/chicago-police-pension-forensic-audit-ends-with-disturbing-findings/

Excerpt:

This week, the Chicago Police Department Pension Board Accountability Group—comprised of retired and active Chicago police officers and their dependents— released the scathing findings of a forensic audit of the Chicago Policemen’s Annuity and Benefit Fund. The Group hired an outside expert to conduct the forensic audit after the pension refused their request to do so on its own.

In a September 2, 2021 statement on the police pension’s website it was stated:

“Recently, certain annuitants, without asserting any wrongdoing on the part of the Fund, any Fund employee, or any Board Trustee, past or current, and in fact repeatedly acknowledging no wrongdoing or fraudulent conduct has occurred, have demanded the Board contract with another entity to conduct a desired independent forensic audit. The purpose of a forensic audit is in substance to conduct an investigation as a means of discovering potential fraud, wrongdoing, or other financial crimes. Given that no legitimate cause for this type of audit exists, it is not a prudent use of Fund resources to engage with an additional auditor to perform a forensic audit.”

…..

According to the report, CPABF is one of the worst funded public pension plans in the U.S. today with a funding ratio at year-end of only 23%. That fact alone merits an independent investigation, in my opinion. And, by the way, forensic investigations of pensions are not necessarily focused upon “potential fraud, wrongdoing or financial crimes.”

Author(s): Edward Siedle

Publication Date: 3 September 2021

Publication Site: Forbes

Actuaries project future virus surges, end of regulatory flexibility key drivers in 2022 rates

Mary Pat Campbell

Link: https://www.fiercehealthcare.com/payer/actuaries-project-future-virus-surges-end-regulatory-flexibility-key-drivers-2022-rates

Excerpt:

Uncertainty over future surges of COVID-19 and the end of regulatory flexibilities are going to be major drivers for 2022 premiums on the individual and small group markets, a new actuary report finds.

The report, released Thursday (PDF) by the American Academy of Actuaries, finds insurers face major uncertainties like the end of the public health emergency and the fate of enhanced subsidies for coverage on the Affordable Care Act’s (ACA’s) insurance exchanges.

“Greater degrees of uncertainty could lead to more conservative assumptions and risk margins for some insurers,” the report said. “Alternatively, carriers might lower risk margins, seeing an opportunity to capitalize on the increased enrollment due to the [American Rescue Plan Act] subsidies.”

Author(s): Robert King

Publication Date: 2 September 2021

Publication Site: Fierce Healthcare

One Year After Teachers’ Retirement System Head’s Departure, Report Details More Turnover At Top

Mary Pat Campbell

Link: https://www.nprillinois.org/statehouse/2021-09-08/one-year-after-teachers-retirement-system-heads-departure-report-details-more-turnover-at-top-1

Excerpt:

One year after the head of Illinois’ largest public employee pension fund resigned due to what the fund has only described at “performance issues,” a recently published report by the state’s chief ethics officer reveals the circumstances behind the departures of two more former high-ranking officials at the pension fund in 2020.

The former chief information officer at the Illinois’ Teachers’ Retirement System repeatedly directed contracts toward the company he founded and also lied about having severed ties with the company, according to a report published last month by Illinois Executive Inspector General Susan Haling. TRS manages the pensions of more than 427,000 current and retired teachers as well as pension beneficiaries.

The report centers on former CIO Jay Singh’s conflicts of interest, but also brings to light the firing of TRS’ former chief financial officer, Jana Bergschneider, who was fired last July as the investigation unfolded. Singh resigned in April of last year, two months after he was interviewed as part of an internal investigation into his conflicts of interest.

….

Bergschneider was terminated from TRS on July 2, 2020 based upon her “work performance and conduct related to the procurement process on the Gemini Project,” the OEIG report said, apparently quoting from a reason given to investigators by the pension fund.

Ingram was placed on administrative leave at the end of that month — a result of the TRS board’s unanimous vote after an investigation into performance issued conducted by Chicago Law firms King and Spalding. He resigned a few days later and TRS remains tight-lipped about the exact reason for Ingram’s departure, calling it a personnel matter.

But Urbanek reiterated to NPR Illinois the same reasoning given every inquiring media outlet in the last year: that Ingram “had difficulties meeting performance metrics in his contract.”

Author(s): Hannah Meisel

Publication Date: 8 September 2021

Publication Site: NPR Illinois

Applying Predictive Analytics for Insurance Assumptions—Setting Practical Lessons

Mary Pat Campbell
Applying Predictive Analytics for Insurance Assumptions—Setting Practical Lessons

Graphic:

Excerpt:

3. Identify pockets of good and poor model performance. Even if you can’t fix it, you can use this info in future UW decisions. I really like one- and two-dimensional views (e.g., age x pension amount) and performance across 50 or 100 largest plans—this is the precision level at which plans are actually quoted. (See Figure 3.)

What size of unexplained A/E residual is satisfactory at pricing segment level? How often will it occur in your future pricing universe? For example, 1-2% residual is probably OK. Ten to 20% in a popular segment likely indicates you have a model specification issue to explore.

Positive residuals mean that actual mortality data is higher than the model predicts (A>E). If the model is used for pricing this case, longevity pricing will be lower than if you had just followed the data, leading to a possible risk of not being competitive. Negative residuals mean A<E, predicted mortality being too high versus historical data, and a possible risk of price being too low.

Author(s): Lenny Shteyman, MAAA, FSA, CFA

Publication Date: September/October 2021

Publication Site: Contingencies