Month: September 2021

Main Street Pensions Take Wall Street Gamble by Investing Borrowed Money

Mary Pat Campbell

Link: https://www.wsj.com/articles/main-street-pensions-take-wall-street-gamble-by-investing-borrowed-money-11630774800

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Excerpt:

Many U.S. towns and cities are years behind on their pension obligations. Now some are effectively planning to borrow money and put it into stocks and other investments in a bid to catch up.

State and local governments have borrowed about $10 billion for pension funding this year through the end of August, more than in any of the previous 15 full calendar years, according to an analysis of Bloomberg data by Municipal Market Analytics. The number of individual municipalities borrowing for pensions soared to 72 from a 15-year average of 25.

Among those considering what is known as pension obligation borrowing is Norwich, a city in southeastern Connecticut with a population of 40,000. Its yearly payment toward its old pension debts has climbed to $11 million in 2022—four times the annual retirement contribution for current workers and 8% of the city’s budget. The city will vote in November on whether to sell $145 million in 25-year bonds to cover the pensions of retired police officers, firefighters, city workers and school employees.

….

In 2009, Boston College’s Center for Retirement Research examined pension obligation bonds issued since 1986 and found that most of the borrowers had lost money because their pension-fund investments returned less than the amount of interest they were paying. A 2014 update found those losses had reversed and returns were exceeding borrowing costs by 1.5 percentage points.

Author(s): Heather Gillers

Publication Date: 4 September 2021

Publication Site: Wall Street Journal

ABO Blood Group and Outcomes in Patients with COVID-19 Admitted in the Intensive Care Unit (ICU): A Retrospective Study in a Tertiary-Level Hospital in Bangladesh

Mary Pat Campbell

Link: https://www.dovepress.com/abo-blood-group-and-outcomes-in-patients-with-covid-19-admitted-in-the-peer-reviewed-fulltext-article-JMDH?fbclid=IwAR1FnGnFZREIGviYPE0vurQgjtlKRKAM2_yEYycXyE5ObOInocFuxOXABDA

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Subjects and Methods: This retrospective cross-sectional study was conducted in the intensive care unit (ICU) of a tertiary-level COVID-dedicated hospital in Dhaka city, Bangladesh, between April 2020 and November 2020. Records from 771 critically ill patients were extracted who were confirmed for COVID-19 by reverse transcriptase-polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) assay, and blood grouping records were available in the health records.
Results: The blood groups were 37.35%, 17.38%, 26.46%, and 18.81% for A, B, AB, and O type, respectively. Clinical symptoms were significantly more common in patients with blood type A (p < 0.05). Patients with blood type A had higher WBC counts and peak serum ferritin levels and both were statistically significant (p < 0.001). Patients with blood type A had a greater need for supplemental oxygen, and they were more likely to die in comparison to the patients with other blood types (p < 0.05). In multivariable analysis, our primary outcome death was significantly associated with blood type A (AOR: 3.49, 95% CI: 1.57– 7.73) while adjusting for age, male gender, and non-communicable diseases.
Conclusion: Based on this study results, it can be concluded that the COVID-19 patients with blood type A have a higher chance of death and other complications. The authors recommend blood grouping before treating the COVID-19 patients, and healthcare workers should prioritize treating the patients based on that result.

Author(s): Mohammad Rabiul Halim,1,* Shuvajit Saha,2,* Injamam Ull Haque,1 Sadia Jesmin,1 Rahatul Jannat Nishat,3 ASMD Ashraful Islam,2 Seema Roy,4 Miah Md Akiful Haque,5 Md Motiul Islam,1 Tarikul Hamid,1 Kazi Nuruddin Ahmed,1 Md Azharul Islam Talukder,1 Arif Ahmed,1 Emran Hasan,2 Nurjahan Ananna,1 Faroque Md Mohsin,6 Mohammad Delwer Hossain Hawlader7

Publication Date: 2 September 2021

Publication Site: Dovepress

How your DNA may affect whether you get COVID-19 or become gravely ill

Mary Pat Campbell
How your DNA may affect whether you get COVID-19 or become gravely ill

Excerpt:

Some people can blame their DNA for making them more likely to get COVID-19 or becoming severely ill if they get infected.

A study of more than 45,000 people with COVID-19 has uncovered 13 genetic variants linked to an increased risk of infection with SARS-CoV-2 or a higher chance of developing severe illness, researchers report July 8 in Nature. The team includes more than 3,300 researchers in 25 countries.

Some of the variants had been uncovered in previous studies. For instance, researchers again confirmed a genetic link between blood type and the likelihood of getting infected, but don’t know why people with type O blood may be slightly protected. The study also verified that a variant that disables the TYK2 gene raises the risk of critical illness and hospitalization. That variant is known to protect against autoimmune disease, but leaves people more vulnerable to tuberculosis.   

Author(s): Tina Hesman Saey

Publication Date: 8 July 2021

Publication Site: Science News

Biden Lays Out Plan To Mandate Vaccines Or Testing For Millions Of Workers

Mary Pat Campbell

Link: https://www.npr.org/2021/09/09/1035149651/biden-will-require-vaccines-for-federal-workers-as-part-of-a-new-covid-strategy

Excerpt:

President Biden on Thursday unveiled a series of steps to combat the newly surging pandemic, including the announcement of a forthcoming federal rule that all businesses with 100 or more employees have to ensure that every worker is either vaccinated for COVID-19 or submit to weekly testing for the coronavirus.

….

Among the other steps, Biden also announced that federal workers and contractors will be required to be vaccinated for COVID-19, eliminating an option laid out in July for unvaccinated employees to be regularly tested instead.

White House press secretary Jen Psaki said federal workers would have about 75 days to become fully vaccinated, once Biden signed an executive order later Thursday. She said there would be limited exemptions for religious or medical reasons.

Some federal agencies will require proof of vaccination while others will accept attestations, Psaki said. Workers who fail to comply with the requirement will be counseled by their human resources departments, and then will face “progressive disciplinary action,” she said.

…..

Biden announced that 17 million health care workers at hospitals and other health care settings like dialysis clinics and home health agencies that receive Medicare or Medicaid funding will have to be vaccinated.

There will be similar requirements for teachers and staff at the Head Start early education program and other federally funded educational settings, such as schools on military bases.

Author(s): Alana Wise, Tamara Keith

Publication Date: 9 September 2021

Publication Site: NPR

Investigating the Mass Hysteria Over 1 Degree in Climate Change Since 1850

Mary Pat Campbell

Link: https://mishtalk.com/economics/investigating-the-mass-hysteria-over-1-degree-in-climate-change-since-1850

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Temperatures have risen a a best estimate of 1.07°C since 1850 due to man-made causes.

The sea rise between 1971 and 2006 was 1.3 mm per year. That’s 0.0511811 inches per year. 

The sea rise between 2006 and 2018 was 3.7 mm per year. That’s 0.145669 inches per year.

Under all emissions scenarios, global warming of 1.5°C and 2°C will be exceeded during the 21st century.

Author(s): Mike Shedlock

Publication Date: 5 September 2021

Publication Site: Mish Talk

Let’s Review 50 Years of Dire Climate Forecasts and What Actually Happened

Mary Pat Campbell

Link: https://mishtalk.com/economics/lets-review-50-years-of-dire-climate-forecasts-and-what-actually-happened

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1970 Boston Globe: Scientist Predicts New Ice Age by 21st Century said James P. Lodge, a scientist at the National Center for Atmospheric Research.
1971 Washington Post: Disastrous New Ice Age Coming says S.I. Rasool at NASA.
1972 Brown University Letter to President Nixon: Warning on Global Cooling
1974 The Guardian: Space Satellites Show Ice Age Coming Fast

…..

1989 Salon: New York City’s West Side Highway underwater by 2019 said Jim Hansen the scientist who lectured Congress in 1988 about the greenhouse effect.
2000 The Independent: “Snowfalls are a thing of the past. Our children will not know what snow is,” says senior climate researcher.
2004 The Guardian: The Pentagon Tells Bush Climate Change Will Destroy Us. “Britain will be Siberian in less than 20 years,” the Pentagon told Bush.

…..

2013 The Guardian: US Navy Predicts Ice Free Arctic by 2016. “The US Navy’s department of Oceanography uses complex modeling to makes its forecast more accurate than others.
2014 John Kerry: “We have 500 days to Avoid Climate Chaos” discussed Sec of State John Kerry and French Foreign Minister Laurent Fabious at a joint meeting.

Author(s): Mike Shedlock

Publication Date: 18 February 2021

Publication Site: Mish Talk

Data Shows Less Alarming Picture of Delta

Mary Pat Campbell
Link: https://www.nytimes.com/2021/09/07/briefing/risk-breakthrough-infections-delta.html

Excerpt:

How small are the chances of the average vaccinated American contracting Covid? Probably about one in 5,000 per day, and even lower for people who take precautions or live in a highly vaccinated community.

Or maybe one in 10,000

The estimates here are based on statistics from three places that have reported detailed data on Covid infections by vaccination status: Utah; Virginia; and King County, which includes Seattle, in Washington state. All three are consistent with the idea that about one in 5,000 vaccinated Americans have tested positive for Covid each day in recent weeks.

The chances are surely higher in the places with the worst Covid outbreaks, like the Southeast. And in places with many fewer cases — like the Northeast, as well as the Chicago, Los Angeles and San Francisco areas — the chances are lower, probably less than 1 in 10,000. That’s what the Seattle data shows, for example. (These numbers don’t include undiagnosed cases, which are often so mild that people do not notice them and do not pass the virus to anyone else.)

Here’s one way to think about a one-in-10,000 daily chance: It would take more than three months for the combined risk to reach just 1 percent.

Author(s): David Leonhardt

Publication Date: 7 September 2021

Publication Site: NY Times

New Study Shows Breakthrough Infection Risk Not All It’s Cracked Up to Be

Mary Pat Campbell

Link: https://pjmedia.com/news-and-politics/rick-moran/2021/09/07/new-study-shows-breakthrough-infection-risk-not-all-its-cracked-up-to-be-n1476621

Excerpt:

According to data compiled by the Centers For Disease Control, approximately one in every 5,000 vaccinated Americans has tested positive for the coronavirus. That number is probably much lower in places with significantly fewer cases — like the Northeast, Chicago, Los Angeles, and San Francisco areas, where it is probably fewer than one in 10,000.

This is the first detailed data about so-called “breakthrough” infections — positive tests from people fully vaccinated. The data suggests that politicians and public health officials are wildly overreacting to the delta variant’s effect on the already vaccinated.

Author(s): Rick Moran

Publication Date: 7 September 2021

Publication Site: PJ Media

Biden Could Share Vaccine Data With The World

Mary Pat Campbell

Link: https://www.dailyposter.com/biden-could-share-vaccine-data-with-the-world/

Excerpt:

Wealthy, vaccine manufacturing countries like Germany, France, and the U.S. have pledged to fully vaccinate their own populations while also sharing doses with the developing world. But it’s not clear that a sufficient number of doses currently exist for them to make good on this promise. The European Union, for example, is on track to fall far short of its goal of donating 200 million doses to non-member states by the end of the year. And as of August, COVAX, the World Health Organization’s (WHO) vaccine sharing initiative, had distributed 188 million vaccines worldwide, just 19 percent of the 1.1 billion that the WHO says are needed to end the pandemic.

The more people remain unvaccinated worldwide, the likelier it is that new variants will emerge, endangering vaccinated and unvaccinated alike.

The Biden administration’s strategy for expanding worldwide vaccine access has largely relied on pushing for vaccine patent waivers through negotiations at the World Trade Organization. But those negotiations have been stymied by strong opposition from member states of the European Union, meaning that unilateral American action may be necessary to expand vaccine access on the necessary scale.

Legally, the U.S. may already have the ability to do so. The terms between Moderna and the federal government specify that the government possesses rights to the vaccine technology developed under the contract, meaning that it can unilaterally publish or share the data with anyone. Furthermore, an essential component of the Moderna vaccine was invented and patented by U.S. government researchers, meaning that the government could threaten a patent infringement suit against Moderna if the company refuses to share its vaccine know-how.

Author(s): Sam Mellins

Publication Date: 7 September 2021

Publication Site: The Daily Poster

The Downton Abbey effect: British aristocratic matches with American business heiresses in the late 19th century

Mary Pat Campbell

Link: https://voxeu.org/article/downton-abbey-effect-british-aristocrats-american-brides

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The premise of my recent paper (Taylor 2021) is that the rapid decline in British agricultural prices in the last quarter of the 19th century, which shrank not only the income of aristocratic landed estates but also the income of ‘commoner’ (i.e. non-aristocratic) families who owned land, led to a significant proportion of male aristocrats marrying American heiresses with rich dowries as substitutes for the traditional source – namely, brides from British families with landed estates but no titles. 

British agricultural prices began their drop in the mid-1870s for several reasons, from the development of US railroads and prairies to the advent of steamships, all of which led to the UK market being flooded with cheap prairie wheat. Meanwhile, in the US, high society shunned the families of the newly rich businessmen making their fortunes during the Gilded Age. East Coast high society was the jealously guarded preserve of families who could trace their ancestry back to the earliest Dutch or English settlers, and who socially ostracised the nouveau riche business magnates and their families. So, what were these newly rich families to do? They married into the British aristocracy as a means of establishing a social pedigree, whatever the cost.

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Figure 1 shows the percentage of marriages between British aristocrats and non-aristocrats (‘out-marriages’) for British males born in 20-year cohorts between 1700 and 1899, as well as the 20-year average real price of wheat in London 33 years later (33 being the average age at which British aristocrats married during the 18th and 19th centuries). The positive correlation between the decline in the price of wheat and the percentage of brides from landed families marrying into the aristocracy is striking, as is the rise in the percentage of ‘out-marriages’ to foreigners as wheat prices fell.

Link to paper: https://cepr.org/active/publications/discussion_papers/dp.php?dpno=16209

Author(s): Mark Taylor

Publication Date: 5 September 2021

Publication Site: Vox EU

What explains the decline in r∗? Rising income inequality versus demographic shifts

Mary Pat Campbell

Link: https://www.kansascityfed.org/documents/8337/JH_paper_Sufi_3.pdf

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Downward pressure on the natural rate of interest (r∗) is often attributed to an increase in saving. This study uses microeconomic data from the SCF+ to explore the relative importance of demographic shifts versus rising income inequality on the evolution of saving behavior in the United States from 1950 to 2019. The evidence suggests that rising income inequality is the more important factor explaining the decline in r∗. Saving rates are significantly higher for high income households within a given birth cohort relative to middle and low income households in the same birth cohort, and there has been a large rise in income shares for high income households since the 1980s. The result has been a large rise in saving by high income earners since the 1980s, which is the exact same time period during which r∗ has fallen. Differences in saving rates across the working age distribution are smaller, and there has not been a consistent monotonic shift in income toward any given age group. Both findings challenge the view that demographic shifts due to the aging of the baby boom generation explain the decline in r∗.
.

Author(s): Atif Mian, Ludwig Straub, Amir Sufi

Publication Date: August 2021

Publication Site: Kansas City Federal Reserve

Inequality, not gerontocracy — Who killed interest rates?

Mary Pat Campbell

Link: https://doctorow.medium.com/inequality-not-gerontocracy-fbd7d012ba4a

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The received wisdom among economists is that the US’s historical low interests rates are driven by high savings by aging boomers who are getting ready for, or in, retirement.

The idea is boomers have salted away so much cash that banks don’t bid for their savings, so interest rates fall.

But at last week’s Jackson Hole conference, a trio of economists presented a very different explanation for low interest, one that better fits the facts.

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So we can’t really say that low interest rates are being caused by an aging population with high retirement savings, because while the US population is aging, it does not have high savings. Quite the contrary.

And, as Robert Armstrong points out in his analysis of the paper for the Financial Times, even in places like Japan, with large cohorts of retirees and near-retirees who do have adequate savings, rates are scraping bottom.

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So why are rates so low? Well, the paper says it is being caused by high levels of savings — just not aging boomers’ savings. Rather, it’s the savings of the ultra-wealthy, the 1%, who are sitting on mountains of unproductive capital, chasing returns.

Author(s): Cory Doctorow

Publication Date: 1 September 2021

Publication Site: Cory Doctorow at Medium.com