Month: July 2021

Comparing the COVID-19 Vaccines: How Are They Different?

Mary Pat Campbell

Link: https://www.yalemedicine.org/news/covid-19-vaccine-comparison

Excerpt:

In the United States, the number of cases and deaths that had been rising to a peak for almost a year have been flattening out, thanks, in large part, to COVID-19 vaccinations that began in December. As the weeks pass, more reports have been coming out about the effectiveness of the vaccines that are in use and the potential of those still in development. So, how do they differ? 

It’s important to keep up, but it’s also a daunting task, given the flood of information (and misinformation) coming at us from so many directions.

Vaccines from Pfizer-BioNTech, Moderna, and Johnson & Johnson are being administered in the U.S. right now, and others are on track to do the same. 

We mapped out a comparison of the most prominent COVID-19 vaccines.

Author(s): Kathy Katella

Publication Date: 1 July 2021 (originally published February 2021, updated)

Publication Site: Yale Medicine

Have Fun With Approximations!

Mary Pat Campbell

Link: https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/have-fun-approximations-mary-pat-campbell/

Graphic:

Pdf: https://drive.google.com/file/d/0ByabEDuWaN6FNmZhTDBYeEVrNVE/view?resourcekey=0-U4GI2_9zn4UQdWza1bq95w

Excerpt:

In the pre-computer days, people used these approximations due to having to do all calculations by hand or with the help of tables. Of course, many approximations are done by computers themselves — the way computers calculate functions such as sine() and exp() involves approaches like Taylor series expansions.

The specific approximation techniques I try (1 “exact” and 6 different approximation… including the final ones where I put approximations within approximations just because I can) are not important. But the concept that you should know how to try out and test approximation approaches in case you need them is important for those doing numerical computing.

Author(s): Mary Pat Campbell

Publication Date: 3 February 2016 (updated for links 2021)

Publication Site: LinkedIn, CompAct, Society of Actuaries

What is good tax policy?

Mary Pat Campbell

Link: https://allisonschrager.substack.com/p/known-unknowns-1c3?utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=cta

Excerpt:

So the goal of tax policy should be taking as much revenue as you can while trying to minimize distortions. Some kinds of taxes are more distortionary than others. In order of least to most harmful, it goes

1.     Consumption taxes

2.     Income taxes

3.     Wealth taxes

Cut to our current tax debate, where these concerns get no attention. The goal seems less about minimizing distortions/maximizing revenue and more about punishment, i.e., rich people for making too much in a zero-sum world and corporations for being greedy. Now, I think our tax system should be more progressive, too. But there are good and bad ways to achieve that goal.

Author(s): Allison Schrager

Publication Date: 6 July 2021

Publication Site: Known Unknowns at substack

Several Ways to Improve Your Use of Excel for Actuarial Production

Mary Pat Campbell

Link: https://www.soa.org/sections/small-insurance/small-insurance-newsletter/2021/june/stn-2021-06-mathys/

Graphic:

Excerpt:

Create a Consistent Structure for Calculations

When spreadsheets are created ad-hoc, the usage of time steps tends to be inconsistent: advancing by rows in one sheet, columns in another, and even a mix of the two in the same sheet. Sometimes steps will be weeks, other times months, quarters, or years. This is confusing for users and reviewers, leads to low trust, increases the time for updates and audits, and adds to the risks of the spreadsheet.

A better way is to make all calculations follow a consistent layout, either across rows or columns, and use that layout for all calculations, regardless if it requires a few more rows or columns. For example, one way to make calculations consistent is with time steps going across the columns and each individual calculation going down the rows:

Author(s): Stephan Mathys

Publication Date: June 2021

Publication Site: Small Talk at the Society of Actuaries

Note to Bernie: The 8 arguments for restoring the SALT deduction, and why they’re all wrong

Mary Pat Campbell
Note to Bernie: The 8 arguments for restoring the SALT deduction, and why they’re all wrong

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Excerpt:

We have argued against lifting the $10,000 cap in the New York Times, the Washington Post, and in a short analysis for Brookings. Our case is quite straightforward: the benefits of repeal would flow to the rich and affluent, who now have a disproportionate influence on the Democratic Party. To be specific, the top 1 percent would get an average tax cut of over $35,000. The middle class would get an average tax cut of about $37 (note that our analyses here relate to full repeal, since we do not know yet what alternative Sen. Sanders has in mind):

Author(s): Richard V. Reeves, Christopher Pulliam

Publication Date: 24 June 2021

Publication Site: Brookings

What’s the Impact of Early Retirements on Plans?

Mary Pat Campbell

Link: https://www.ai-cio.com/in-focus/shop-talk/whats-the-impact-of-early-retirements-on-plans/

Excerpt:

Take the California State Teachers’ Retirement System (CalSTRS), which in February reported that it had its second-highest year for retirements in 2020, behind the fallout from the Great Recession. The pension fund reported a steep 26% jump in the second half of 2020 from the same time a year before. 

When the pension fund for educators surveyed roughly 500 of these retirees, about 62% said they retired earlier than they planned. More than half said the challenges of teaching during the pandemic pushed them to seek an early out. Still, a CalSTRS spokesperson said this week that the fund does not expect the retirements to have a “material impact” on the funding levels.  

Broadly speaking, any damage from early retirements is going to be “fairly muted,” according to Kevin McLaughlin, head of liability risk management for North America at Insight Investment. 

Author(s): Sarah Min

Publication Date: 1 July 2021

Publication Site: ai-CIO

Visualizing U.S. Stock Ownership Over Time (1965-2019)

Mary Pat Campbell
Visualizing U.S. Stock Ownership Over Time (1965-2019)

Graphic:

Excerpt:

The U.S. stock market is the largest in the world, with total U.S. stock ownership amounting to almost $40 trillion in 2019. But who owns all these equities?

In this Markets in a Minute from New York Life Investments, we show the percentage of U.S. stock owned by various groups, and how the proportions have changed over time.

Author(s): Jenna Ross

Publication Date: 31 March 2021

Publication Site: Visual Capitalism

Treasurer Muoio Announces New Jersey Has Paid the Full State-Funded Portion of the Pension Contribution for the First Time in More than 25 Years

Mary Pat Campbell

Link: https://www.state.nj.us/treasury/news/2021/07012021.shtml

Excerpt:

State Treasurer Elizabeth Maher Muoio announced that the Treasury Department today kicked off the start of the new fiscal year by paying the full state-funded portion of the $6.9 billion pension contribution slated for Fiscal Year 2022 (FY 2022). This marks the first time in more than 25 years that New Jersey is making the full Actuarially Determined Contribution to the Pension Fund, plus an additional $505 million contribution, and also the first time in years that the state has made a lump sum payment, rather than quarterly payments.

The Treasurer also announced that by making the contribution in one lump sum, the State is now expected to save taxpayers roughly $2.2 billion over 30 years, rather than the $1.5 billion in savings initially anticipated if the state had made quarterly pension payments this year.

Publication Date: 1 July 2021

Publication Site: Dept of the Treasury, New Jersey state

Most New Jerseyans Are Fiscal Dullards

Mary Pat Campbell
Most New Jerseyans Are Fiscal Dullards

Excerpt:

That is what the Murphy administration has to believe for them to send out this piece of gripka:

….

treating $10.19 billion in Biden relief money as if it will never have to be repaid (one way or another).

Keep in mind when reading just this one excerpt below that $6.9 billion represents about six months worth of payments out of a pension system that is still accruing benefits at record levels and as of June 30, 2020 reported unfunded liabilities under GASB of $128 billion.

Author(s): John Bury

Publication Date: 2 July 2021

Publication Site: Burypensions

Op-ed: Illinois gets its first credit upgrade in 20 years, thanks to $138 billion in federal relief

Mary Pat Campbell

Link: https://www.chicagotribune.com/opinion/commentary/ct-edit-illinois-credit-upgrade-federal-bailout-20210701-mccvijig6fbuzpuhmc4eorkobm-story.html

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Excerpt:

The ratings firm Moody’s Investors Service this week upgraded Illinois’ credit rating one notch to Baa2, a level two notches above junk. It’s a major turnaround given that just one year ago Illinois faced the prospect of becoming the first state to ever be rated junk. In mid-2020, shutdowns ravaged the state’s tax base, Sen. Don Harmon asked for a $42 billion bailout from Congress and the state projected billions in multi-year budget shortfalls.

What changed so dramatically in such a short period of time? Ignore the claims by Illinois lawmakers of their heroic acts of “balanced budgets,” “fiscal discipline” and the like. Even if those claims were true – and they are not – they couldn’t by themselves create such a swing in Illinois’ short-term fortunes.

Credit, instead, the massive $138 billion in federal funds from the multiple COVID relief and stimulus packages – as compiled by the Committee for Responsible Federal Budget – that are now flooding Illinois’ public and private sectors. Those billions have significantly reduced the probability of a bond default – which is ultimately what Moody’s really cares about. 

Author(s): Ted Dabrowski, John Klingner

Publication Date: 1 July 2021

Publication Site: Chicago Tribune