Month: May 2021

DO MEN WHO WORK LONGER LIVE LONGER? EVIDENCE FROM THE NETHERLANDS

Mary Pat Campbell

Link: https://crr.bc.edu/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/IB-21-8.pdf

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Excerpt:

As expected, the raw data show that Dutch men who worked at ages 62-65 were less likely to die over the subsequent five years than men who were not working (see Figure 1). Importantly, Figure 1 shows that mortality decreased at nearly identical rates for working and non-working men between 1999 and 2008, before the policy became available. The fact that these trends are parallel provides more confidence in the policy experiment, indicating that whatever was happening to working men prior to the DWB was also happening to non-working men. In contrast, the mortality rate in 2009-2011 continued to improve somewhat for working men, who were benefiting from the DWB, while the mortality rate for non-working men plateaued.

Author(s): Alice Zulkarnain, Matthew S. Rutledge

Publication Date: May 2021

Publication Site: Center for Retirement Research at Boston College

A New Study Confirms That Reopening Texas ‘100 Percent’ Had No Discernible Impact on COVID-19 Cases or Deaths

Mary Pat Campbell
A New Study Confirms That Reopening Texas ‘100 Percent’ Had No Discernible Impact on COVID-19 Cases or Deaths

Excerpt:

More than two months later, the public health disaster predicted by Abbott’s critics has not materialized. A new analysis by three economists confirms that his decision had no discernible impact on COVID-19 cases or deaths in Texas.

“We find no evidence that the Texas reopening led to substantial changes in social mobility, including foot traffic at a wide set of business establishments in Texas,” Bentley University economist Dhaval Dave and his two co-authors report in a National Bureau of Economic Research working paper. “We find no evidence that the Texas reopening affected the rate of new COVID-19 cases during the five weeks following the reopening.” They say their findings “underscore the limits of late-pandemic era COVID-19 reopening policies to alter private behavior.”

Dave, San Diego State University economist Joseph Sabia, and SDSU graduate research fellow Samuel Safford looked at smartphone mobility data from SafeGraph and COVID-19 data collected by The New York Times. They compared trends in Texas before and after Abbott’s order took effect on March 10 to trends in a composite of data from other states that retained their COVID-19 restrictions but were otherwise similar.

Author(s): Jacob Sullum

Publication Date: 21 May 2021

Publication Site: Reason

Mortality with Meep: On Excess non-COVID Mortality in 2020

Mary Pat Campbell

Link: https://marypatcampbell.substack.com/p/mortality-with-meep-on-excess-non

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Excerpt:

All of the excess mortality for age 85+ can be explained by COVID, essentially

Very little of the excess mortality for those age 15-24 can be explained by COVID

There is a lot of excess mortality for those age 25-44 not explained by COVID

Author(s): Mary Pat Campbell

Publication Date: 22 May 2021

Publication Site: STUMP at substack

Puerto Rico’s Public Debts: Accumulation and Restructuring

Mary Pat Campbell

Link: https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/R/R46788https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/R/R46788

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Restructuring Puerto Rico’s finances has involved complex disputes among bondholders invested in different types of Puerto Rico’s public debt. This section outlines the structure of the island’s public debts. Since Puerto Rico lost access to credit markets in late 2014, its current debt structure has been largely unchanged, aside from the runoff of short-term notes, the 2018 wind-down of the GDB, and the 2019 restructuring of sales-tax-backed COFINA bonds (COFINA—an acronym for the Corporación del Fondo de Interés Apremiante—is also known as the Puerto Rico Sales Tax Financing Corporation). Figure 2 and Table A-1 show debt levels as of the end of July 2016.

Author(s): D. Andrew Austin

Publication Date: 18 May 2021

Publication Site: Congressional Research Service

Face masks effectively limit the probability of SARS-CoV-2 transmission

Mary Pat Campbell

Link: https://science.sciencemag.org/content/early/2021/05/19/science.abg6296

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Abstract:

Airborne transmission by droplets and aerosols is important for the spread of viruses. Face masks are a well-established preventive measure, but their effectiveness for mitigating SARS-CoV-2 transmission is still under debate. We show that variations in mask efficacy can be explained by different regimes of virus abundance and related to population-average infection probability and reproduction number. For SARS-CoV-2, the viral load of infectious individuals can vary by orders of magnitude. We find that most environments and contacts are under conditions of low virus abundance (virus-limited) where surgical masks are effective at preventing virus spread. More advanced masks and other protective equipment are required in potentially virus-rich indoor environments including medical centers and hospitals. Masks are particularly effective in combination with other preventive measures like ventilation and distancing.

Author(s): Yafang Cheng, Nan Ma, Christian Witt, Steffen Rapp, Philipp S. Wild, Meinrat O. Andreae, Ulrich Pöschl, Hang Su

Publication Date: 20 May 2021

Publication Site: Science

Mortality with Meep – U.S. Mortality Preliminary 2020 Experience

Mary Pat Campbell

Description:

Reviewing the recent Society of Actuaries report on preliminary mortality results in U.S. population, with a focus on increased mortality from non-COVID causes. U.S. Population Mortality

Observations, Preview of 2020 Experience Society of Actuaries research:

https://www.soa.org/resources/research-reports/2021/us-population-observations-preview/

https://www.soa.org/globalassets/assets/files/resources/research-report/2021/us-population-observations-preview.pdf

Author(s): Mary Pat Campbell

Publication Date: 21 May 2021

Publication Site: Meep’s Math Matters on YouTube

U.S. Population Mortality Observations Preview of 2020 Experience

Mary Pat Campbell

Report Link: https://www.soa.org/globalassets/assets/files/resources/research-report/2021/us-population-observations-preview.pdf

Link: https://www.soa.org/resources/research-reports/2021/us-population-observations-preview/

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Excerpt:

The overall age-adjusted mortality rate for 2020 was 828.7 deaths per 100,000 of population. This rate was 15.9% greater than the 2019 overall age-adjusted mortality rate. This high level of mortality has not been experienced in the U.S. since 2003.

If deaths coded as COVID (COVID deaths)3 were excluded, the overall age-adjusted 2020 mortality rate would have been 737.2 per 100,000 or 3.1% higher than the 2019 rate. This increase excluding COVID deaths is also noteworthy because it reverses the two previous calendar years of decreasing mortality; however, some or all of this may be due to the misclassification of CODs as discussed in Section 6.

2020 mortality rates increased in both sexes, with the male rates increasing more than the female rates. The differences in the increases between males and females were about 3% when all causes of death (CODs) are included and about 1% when COVID deaths are excluded.

The slope of the 2020 COVID mortality curve by age group is not as steep as the slope of the non-COVID deaths, indicating that COVID impacts younger ages more evenly across age groups that all other non-COVID CODs combined.

In the review of the 2020 mortality rates by age group, it is interesting to see that the highest percentage increases were in the younger adult ages, not at the very old ages. When COVID deaths were removed, ages 15-44 saw the largest increases in mortality rates.

Author(s): Cynthia MacDonald, FSA, MAAA

Publication Date: 20 May 2021

Publication Site: Society of Actuaries

ACLI Webinar Series: Navigating Credit Trends and Market Challenges

Mary Pat Campbell

Video:

ACLI learning link: https://learning.acli.com/product?p=acli-webinar-series-navigating-credit-trends-and-market-challenges

Description:

It seems that not a week goes by without an announcement of another merger/acquisition transaction in the life insurance industry. With an overlay of persistent capital market volatility and a sharply increased focus on ESG risk factors, life insurance executives will have their plates full of challenges for the balance of 2021. Whether large national carriers or smaller regional players, virtually every life company will experience changes in their operating environment. Our panelists will share their perspectives on how these trends will shape the insurance markets and discuss the implications for credit and risk management.

Author(s): Peter Giacone, KBRA; Celeste Guth, Erinn King, David Marcinek

Publication Date: 13 May 2021

Publication Site: ACLI on Vimeo

Ask the Experts Ep.12: Biden’s infrastructure plan and America’s largest cities

Mary Pat Campbell

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Description:

Watch a recording of Truth in Accounting’s virtual event with special guest Steve Malanga, senior editor at City Journal. In this episode, we discussed the financial troubles of America’s largest cities and the effects of Biden’s infrastructure plan.

Author(s): Bill Bergman, Sheila Weinberg, Steve Malanga

Publication Date: 14 May 2021

Publication Site: Truth in Accounting at YouTube

U.S. Retirees’ Experience Differs From Nonretirees’ Outlook

Mary Pat Campbell

Link: https://news.gallup.com/poll/350048/retirees-experience-differs-nonretirees-outlook.aspx

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Excerpt:

The differences in reliance on income sources between those who are already retired and those who are not yet retired are likely attributable, at least in part, to apprehension about the Social Security system, as well as the rise of 401(k)s accompanied by a decline in work-sponsored pension plans.

57% of retired U.S. adults say they rely on Social Security as a major income source, and 38% of nonretirees expect it to be a major source for them.

Likewise, 36% of retirees and 19% of nonretirees say a work-sponsored pension plan is or will be a major income source.

Nonretirees are most likely to say a 401(k) or other retirement savings account will fund their retirement (49%). Meanwhile, 35% of retirees mention 401(k)s as a major funding source of their retirement.

Author(s): Megan Brenan

Publication Date: 18 May 2021

Publication Site: Gallup

The Best Reason to Take Social Security Long Before Age 70

Mary Pat Campbell

Link: https://www.fool.com/retirement/2021/05/18/the-best-reason-to-take-social-security-long-befor/

Excerpt:

Delaying Social Security may mean scoring a higher monthly benefit — but it doesn’t necessarily mean snagging a higher lifetime benefit. In fact, if you pass away at a somewhat young age, you’ll actually lose out on lifetime income by delaying your filing until 70.

Let’s imagine you’re entitled to a monthly benefit of $1,500 at an FRA of 67. If you were to claim that benefit at age 62, it would shrink to $1,050, whereas delaying it until 70 would let it grow to $1,860.

But if you were to pass away at the age of 78, which is considered relatively young given today’s life expectancies, here’s what you’d be looking at in terms of lifetime income:

Filing at 62 would leave you with $201,600

Filing at 67 would leave you with $198,000

Filing at 70 would leave you with $178,560

Author(s): Maurie Backman (TMFBookNerd)

Publication Date: 18 May 2021

Publication Site: Motley Fool

Treasury Rescue Won’t Bail Out Chicago, New Jersey From Debt

Mary Pat Campbell

Link: https://news.yahoo.com/treasury-lifeline-won-t-bail-190632365.html

Excerpt:

(Bloomberg) — The U.S. Treasury Department is sending a message to states and cities that the billions in aid from the American Rescue Plan should provide relief to residents, not their governments’ debt burdens.

The department on Monday released guidance on how state and local governments can use $350 billion in funding from President Joe Biden’s $1.9 trillion rescue package. The funds are intended to help states and local governments make up for lost revenue, curb the pandemic, bolster economic recoveries, and support industries hit by Covid-19 restrictions. In a surprise to some, these funds can’t be used for debt payments, a potential complication for fiscally stressed governments that had already etched out plans to pay off loans.

…..

Illinois Governor J.B. Pritzker had suggested using some of the state’s $8.1 billion in aid to repay the outstanding $3.2 billion in debt from the Federal Reserve’s emergency lending facility and to reduce unpaid bills. Illinois was the only state to borrow from the Fed last year, tapping it twice. On Tuesday, Jordan Abudayyeh, a Pritzker spokesperson, said the administration is “seeking clarification” from the Treasury on whether Illinois can use the aid to pay back the loan from the Fed.

…..

The rule could also affect New Jersey, which sold nearly $3.7 billion of bonds last year to cover its shortfall during the pandemic. Assembly Republican Leader Jon Bramnick, a Republican, in April had called for Governor Phil Murphy, a Democrat, to use some of the federal aid to pay down the state’s debt.

Author(s): Shruti Date Singh, Amanda Albright

Publication Date: 11 May 2021

Publication Site: Yahoo Finance