Month: May 2021

Illinois looks to its own coffers to pay off MLF loan

Mary Pat Campbell

Link: https://fixedincome.fidelity.com/ftgw/fi/FINewsArticle?id=202105211243SM______BNDBUYER_00000179-8fa2-d80e-a97d-8fa3c5720001_110.1#new_tab

Excerpt:

Illinois will dip into its growing pot of tax revenues to pay off the remaining $2.175 billion of outstanding debt borrowed through the Federal Reserve?s Municipal Liquidity Facility to manage last year?s COVID-19 tax blows.

The Treasury Department?s interim guidance, released May 10, barring debt repayment as an eligible use of American Rescue Plan dollars threw a wrench ? at least temporarily ? into Chicago’s and Illinois? plans to pay down debt issued last year. Illinois borrowed through the MLF and Chicago issued notes ahead of a planned scoop-and-toss borrowing to stave off deep cuts and layoffs as tax revenues plummeted. Both planned to pay off the debt with ARP funds.

Both planned to lobby the Treasury Department for a guidance change during a 60-day comment period, but Illinois was under the gun to make repayment plans ahead of a May 31 deadline to pass a fiscal 2022 budget. The state is receiving $8.1 billion from the ARP.

Author(s): Yvette Shields

Publication Date: 21 May 2021

Publication Site: Fidelity Fixed Income

Long Slide Looms for World Population, With Sweeping Ramifications

Mary Pat Campbell

Link: https://www.nytimes.com/2021/05/22/world/global-population-shrinking.html

Excerpt:

Like an avalanche, the demographic forces — pushing toward more deaths than births — seem to be expanding and accelerating. Though some countries continue to see their populations grow, especially in Africa, fertility rates are falling nearly everywhere else. Demographers now predict that by the latter half of the century or possibly earlier, the global population will enter a sustained decline for the first time.

A planet with fewer people could ease pressure on resources, slow the destructive impact of climate change and reduce household burdens for women. But the census announcements this month from China and the United States, which showed the slowest rates of population growth in decades for both countries, also point to hard-to-fathom adjustments.

The strain of longer lives and low fertility, leading to fewer workers and more retirees, threatens to upend how societies are organized — around the notion that a surplus of young people will drive economies and help pay for the old. It may also require a reconceptualization of family and nation. Imagine entire regions where everyone is 70 or older. Imagine governments laying out huge bonuses for immigrants and mothers with lots of children. Imagine a gig economy filled with grandparents and Super Bowl ads promoting procreation.

“A paradigm shift is necessary,” said Frank Swiaczny, a German demographer who was the chief of population trends and analysis for the United Nations until last year. “Countries need to learn to live with and adapt to decline.”

Author(s): Damien Cave, Emma Bubola, Choe Sang-Hun.

Publication Date: 22 May 2021

Publication Site: New York Times

State sales tax collections rise sharply in April

Mary Pat Campbell

Link: https://news.wbfo.org/post/state-sales-tax-collections-rise-sharply-april

Excerpt:

In a review of the state’s economy, Comptroller Thomas DiNapoli’s office states that sales tax collections in April were more than forty-five percent higher than the same period last year.

Sales tax collections in 2021 totaled $1.5 billion. In Western New York, Erie County saw a nearly 50 percent increase this April over the previous year. The largest increases were seen in Niagara and Allegany Counties at 63 percent. The lowest growth was in Cattaraugus County at nearly 43 percent.


DiNapoli attributes the incredible growth to the re-opening of many businesses.

Author(s): CHRIS JAMELE

Publication Date: 15 May 2021

Publication Site: WBFO NPR

Mortality From Falls Among US Adults Aged 75 Years or Older, 2000-2016

Mary Pat Campbell

Link: https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2735063

Reference: JAMA. 2019;321(21):2131-2133. doi:10.1001/jama.2019.4185

Graphic:

Excerpt:

In the United States, an estimated 28.7% of adults aged 65 years or older fell in 2014.1 Falls result in increased morbidity, mortality, and health care costs.1,2 Risk factors for falls include age, medication use, poor balance, and chronic conditions (ie, depression, diabetes).1 Fall prevention strategies are typically recommended for adults older than 65 years. In several European countries, an increase in mortality from falls has been observed since 2000, particularly among adults older than 75 years.3,4 This age group has the highest fall risk and potential for cost-effective interventions. We report trends in mortality from falls for the US population aged 75 years or older from 2000 to 2016.

Author(s): Klaas A. Hartholt, MD, PhD1; Robin Lee, PhD, MPH2; Elizabeth R. Burns, MPH2; et al

Publication Date: 4 June 2019

Publication Site: JAMA

Mask Use and Ventilation Improvements to Reduce COVID-19 Incidence in Elementary Schools — Georgia, November 16–December 11, 2020

Mary Pat Campbell

Link: https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/70/wr/mm7021e1.htm

Graphic:

Excerpt:

Representatives from 169 (11.6%) of 1,461 schools in 51 (32.1%) of 159 Georgia counties (median = two schools per county) completed the survey and also had available COVID-19 case data (Figure).¶¶¶ Schools reporting 100% virtual learning were excluded. Among the 169 schools, 162 (95.9%) were public, representing 47 (26.0%) of 181 public school districts in Georgia (median = two schools per district). Schools had a median of 532 enrolled students (attending virtually and in-person), 91.1% were publicly funded, 71.0% were located in metropolitan areas, and 82.2% used hybrid learning (Table 1). Median class size was 19.0 students (interquartile range [IQR] = 15.0–21.0); median cohort size was 20.0 students (IQR = 15.0–21.0). Among all schools, the proportion of students receiving at least some in-person instruction ranged from 8.5% to 100% (median = 84.7%); 3.0%–100% (median = 64.0%) were eligible for free or reduced-cost meal plans, and approximately one half of students were White (median = 55.1%), followed by Black (median = 17.0%), Hispanic (median = 9.0%), multiracial (median = 4.5%), and Asian (median = 1.0%).****

Prevention strategies implemented at participating schools included requiring masks for teachers and staff members (65.1%) or students (51.5%), flexible medical leave for teachers (81.7%), improved ventilation (51.5%), spacing all desks ≥6 ft apart (18.9%), and using barriers on all desks (22.5%). Schools reported a median of 9.0 (IQR = 8.0–9.0) locations with handwashing stations (Table 1).

Author(s): Jenna Gettings, DVM1,2,3; Michaila Czarnik, MPH1,4; Elana Morris, MPH1; Elizabeth Haller, MEd1; Angela M. Thompson-Paul, PhD1; Catherine Rasberry, PhD1; Tatiana M. Lanzieri, MD1; Jennifer Smith-Grant, MSPH1; Tiffiany Michelle Aholou, PhD1; Ebony Thomas, MPH2; Cherie Drenzek, DVM2; Duncan MacKellar, DrPH1

Publication Date: 21 May 2021

Publication Site: CDC

Schools Are Dropping Mask Requirements, But A New CDC Study Suggests They Shouldn’t

Mary Pat Campbell

Link: https://www.npr.org/2021/05/21/999106426/schools-are-dropping-mask-requirements-but-new-cdc-study-suggests-they-shouldnt

Excerpt:

New research released Friday by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention reinforces an old message: COVID-19 spreads less in schools where teachers and staff wear masks. Yet the study arrives as states and school districts across the country have begun scaling back or simply dropping their masking requirements for staff and students alike.

….

The new study comes from Georgia and compares COVID-19 infection rates across 169 K-5 schools. Some schools required teachers, staff and sometimes students to wear masks; some did not.

Between Nov. 16 and Dec. 11, researchers found that infection rates were 37% lower in schools where teachers and staff members were required to wear masks. The difference between schools that did and did not require students to wear masks was not statistically significant.

Author(s): Cory Turner

Publication Date: 21 May 2021

Publication Site: NPR

Association of State-Issued Mask Mandates and Allowing On-Premises Restaurant Dining with County-Level COVID-19 Case and Death Growth Rates — United States, March 1–December 31, 2020

Mary Pat Campbell

Link: https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/70/wr/mm7010e3.htm?fbclid=IwAR3O5YrbN3joxCwg8trS8gLSXanQAGhCzfVG8rw0ajeatZXIoNcQRVdrmOE

Graphic:

Excerpt:

During March 1–December 31, 2020, state-issued mask mandates applied in 2,313 (73.6%) of the 3,142 U.S. counties. Mask mandates were associated with a 0.5 percentage point decrease (p = 0.02) in daily COVID-19 case growth rates 1–20 days after implementation and decreases of 1.1, 1.5, 1.7, and 1.8 percentage points 21–40, 41–60, 61–80, and 81–100 days, respectively, after implementation (p<0.01 for all) (Table 1) (Figure). Mask mandates were associated with a 0.7 percentage point decrease (p = 0.03) in daily COVID-19 death growth rates 1–20 days after implementation and decreases of 1.0, 1.4, 1.6, and 1.9 percentage points 21–40, 41–60, 61–80, and 81–100 days, respectively, after implementation (p<0.01 for all). Daily case and death growth rates before implementation of mask mandates were not statistically different from the reference period.

Author(s): Gery P. Guy Jr., PhD1; Florence C. Lee, MPH1; Gregory Sunshine, JD1; Russell McCord, JD1; Mara Howard-Williams, JD2; Lyudmyla Kompaniyets, PhD1; Christopher Dunphy, PhD1; Maxim Gakh, JD3; Regen Weber1; Erin Sauber-Schatz, PhD1; John D. Omura, MD1; Greta M. Massetti, PhD1; CDC COVID-19 Response Team, Mitigation Policy Analysis Unit; CDC Public Health Law Program

Publication Date: 12 March 2021

Publication Site: CDC

‘Unsustainable’ pension woes hang over Chicago, Lightfoot says: In a speech to potential investors, the mayor combines optimism about the city’s future with a dire warning

Mary Pat Campbell

Link: https://www.chicagobusiness.com/greg-hinz-politics/chicagos-recovery-clouded-unsustainable-pension-woes-lightfoot-tells-investors

Excerpt:

Coupling a boatload of optimism with a dire warning, Mayor Lori Lightfoot told investors from around the country that Chicago is well positioned to recover from the COVID-19 pandemic and is a good place for them to allocate their cash.

But her remarks May 6 were far different on the subject of underfunded city pension funds, a problem that has bedeviled mayors for the past two decades.

Though workers deserve what they’ve been promised, she said, “that promise will not be met” unless Springfield lawmakers come to the table with financial aid or other reforms.

….

Lightfoot did not use the word “default.” But some financial experts have warned that some of the city’s four pension funds, particularly those covering firefighters and police, may have trouble paying promised benefits within a few years if they don’t get help.

Author(s): Greg Hinz

Publication Date: 10 May 2021

Publication Site: Crain’s Chicago Business

Providence is ready to roll the dice on a pension bond

Mary Pat Campbell

Link: https://fixedincome.fidelity.com/ftgw/fi/FINewsArticle?id=202105211039SM______BNDBUYER_00000179-8608-ddb0-adf9-ff4cb4b00001_110.1

Excerpt:

Red flags waved as Providence Mayor Jorge Elorza proposed issuing $704 million in pension obligation bonds to deal with a pestering unfunded liability problem in Rhode Island’s capital city.

The amount exceeds the city’s annual operating budget. Bond markets often frown on such borrowing and sentiment among state officials who must sign off is uncertain. Skeptics also call the city’s fiscal management track record shaky, while memories linger of a fiasco in Woonsocket, which tried a similar move nearly 20 years ago.

Author(s): Paul Burton

Publication Date: 21 May 2021

Publication Site: Fidelity Fixed Income

Alternative Investment Looting Is Destroying Pension Funds

Mary Pat Campbell

Link: https://www.forbes.com/sites/edwardsiedle/2021/05/21/alternative-investment-looting-is-destroying-pension-funds/?sh=1e71137979c1

Excerpt:

Forensic investigations in Rhode Island, North Carolina, Kentucky and Ohio reveal that gambling 30 percent or more on high-cost, high-risk, secretive alternative investments has exposed pensions to massively greater risks and reduced net returns. The time is ripe for legislators, regulators, and law enforcement to act to stop the looting.

A recent New York Times NYT -3% article revealed that putting more than half of the $62 billion Pennsylvania state teachers’ retirement fund’s assets into risky alternative investments hadn’t worked out well for the pension and had spurred an investigation by the FBI. The FBI is investigating reporting fraud—returns allegedly falsified to avoid increased worker contributions to the pension.

Law enforcement investigations into public pension funds that lie about their returns are long, long overdue.

Author(s): Edward Siedle

Publication Date: 21 May 2021

Publication Site: Forbes

UPDATE 2-Canada Pension Plan Investment Board eyes assets in shift to clean energy

Mary Pat Campbell

Link: https://www.reuters.com/article/cppib-results/update-2-canada-pension-plan-investment-board-eyes-assets-in-shift-to-clean-energy-idUSL2N2N70WU

Excerpt:

The Canada Pension Plan Investment Board (CPPIB) is hunting for investments in the world’s transition to renewable energy as it aspires to be a global leader in sustainability, the head of the company told Reuters on Thursday.

…..

The pension manager last month announced it was creating a new investment group that would generate investment opportunities in renewables, conventional energy and new technology and service solutions.

CPPIB’s exposure to renewable energy producers rose to C$7.7 billion at March 31 2021, from C$6.6 billion at March 31, 2020, according to a spokesman for the firm.

Author(s): Maiya Keidan

Publication Date: 20 May 2021

Publication Site: Reuters

Teachers union demands leadership changes at embattled PSERS pension fund

Mary Pat Campbell

Link: https://www.post-gazette.com/news/state/2021/05/21/Teachers-union-demands-leadership-changes-at-embattled-PSERS-pension-fund/stories/202105210131

Excerpt:

A union that represents 61,000 schoolteachers statewide called on most of the board of the Pennsylvania State Employees’ Retirement System to resign amid an ongoing FBI investigation.

“Through alleged errors and omissions, and under a shroud of secrecy, this PSERS Board appears to have jeopardized the present and future financial security of our Commonwealth’s most dedicated public servants,” Arthur Steinberg, president of the Pennsylvania chapter of the American Federation of Teachers, wrote in a letter to PSERS board members.

In the letter, Mr. Steinberg called for every board member appointed prior to January 2021 to immediately resign. That would reduce the 15-member board to two: the newly elected State Treasurer Stacy Garrity, a Republican, and state Sen. Katie Muth, D-Montgomery County.

Author(s): WALLACE MCKELVEY, pennlive.com

Publication Date: 21 May 2021

Publication Site: Pittsburgh Post-Gazette