Month: May 2021

N.J. teachers need to be told the truth: Their pensions are in jeopardy | Opinion

Mary Pat Campbell

Link: https://www.nj.com/opinion/2021/05/nj-teachers-need-to-be-told-the-truth-their-pensions-are-in-jeopardy-opinion.html

Excerpt:

The very notable exception is New Jersey’s Teachers’ Pension and Annuity Fund (TPAF), which is by far the single-worst public pension in the Brookings study. TPAF is New Jersey’s largest public pension fund and covers all active and retired teachers. New Jersey’s Public Employees Retirement System (PERS), the pension plan for state and municipal workers, is second-worst but not nearly in the dire predicament of TPAF.

This is what Brookings had to say about TPAF: Under any of their investment return scenarios, TPAF is in “near-term trouble” — meaning near-term insolvency. Brookings projects that TPAF will run out of assets in 12-to-15 years, at which point the $4.5 billion-plus in benefits payments will have to be made from the New Jersey’s perpetually strained state budget. This would be a fiscal disaster for New Jersey and a retirement crisis for TPAF’s 262,000 beneficiaries.

Author(s): Mike Lilley

Publication Date: 5 May 2021

Publication Site: NJ.com

Pending bill opens door to pension corruption at CalPERS

Mary Pat Campbell

Link: https://calmatters.org/commentary/2021/05/california-pension-calpers-corruption-legislation/

Excerpt:

Assembly Bill 386 sailed through the Assembly Judiciary Committee last week on a unanimous vote with virtually no discussion about its provisions.

….

Potentially it opens the door to insider dealing and corruption in an agency that’s already experienced too many scandals, including a huge one that sent CalPERS’ top administrator to prison for accepting bribes.

CalPERS, which is sponsoring the bill with support from some unions and local governments, claims that the exemption is no big deal since the money it lends through “alternative investment vehicles” such as venture capital funds and hedge funds is already partially exempted from disclosure.

However, there is a big difference. Using outside entities to invest means they have skin in the game. Direct lending by CalPERS means that its board members, administrators and other insiders would be making lending decisions on their own without outside scrutiny.

Author(s): Dan Walters

Publication Date: 3 May 2021

Publication Site: CalMatters

Up For Grabs: The Best & Worst States For Business 2021

Mary Pat Campbell
Up For Grabs: The Best & Worst States For Business 2021

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Excerpt:

For the 17th year in a row, Texas tops Chief Executive’s Best and Worst States for Business list. Number two? Florida, once again. When it comes to the three criteria CEOs tell us they value most in site selection—tax policy (37 percent rank it first), regulatory climate (35 percent) and talent availability (25 percent)—Texas and Florida outclass all comers. (Find out why, despite the February storm and power collapse, businesses are still flocking to the Lone Star State.)

And once again—yawn—California, New York, Illinois and Massachusetts pile up at the bottom of our rankings (based entirely on polling of the nation’s CEOs) where they have dwelt for most of the list’s existence.

But while the names at the top and the bottom remain unchanged, what has changed— dramatically—are the stakes. Governors take note: Our survey—of 383 CEOs in March 2021— finds the nation’s business leaders an increasingly restless bunch thanks to Covid. They’re open to all kinds of new ideas about how—and, more to the point—where to do business.

Publication Date: 28 April 2021

Publication Site: Chief Executive

Covid-19 Vaccinations Are Slowing, So Officials Target Markets, Schools

Mary Pat Campbell

Link: https://www.wsj.com/articles/covid-19-vaccinations-are-slowing-so-officials-target-markets-schools-11620044791

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Excerpt:

As demand wanes, states, municipalities and healthcare providers are trying everything from one-on-one education in nontraditional locations to incentives including a free drink and cash.

West Virginia Gov. Jim Justice said recently the state would offer a $100 savings bond to residents aged 16 to 35 who receive a vaccination. The state had been an early leader in vaccinations.

In Detroit, $50 prepaid debit cards are being offered to drivers who take a city resident for a shot. In Connecticut, Gov. Ned Lamont rolled out a campaign where some restaurants will give a free drink to anyone who shows a vaccination card.

Author(s): Melanie Grayce West, Talal Ansari

Publication Date: 3 May 2021

Publication Site: Wall Street Journal

‘The Premonition’ Review: A Pandemic of Experts

Mary Pat Campbell

Link: https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-premonition-review-a-pandemic-of-experts-11620078624

Excerpt:

The article, in any case, doesn’t claim that 180,000 people could have been saved by more robust public-health interventions in early 2020 but that those deaths are mostly the result of Americans’ poor health. That the U.S. death rate, even so, is lower than that of the U.K. and Italy and nearly equal to that of France — all G7 nations — rather complicates Mr. Lewis’s breezy thesis.

It is amazing to me that intelligent people in 2021 can survey the past year and conclude that some alternative set of non-pharmaceutical interventions would have made an appreciable difference in the spread of this magnificently resilient virus. But many such people do believe that, including the author of this book and its ostensible heroes. One of those heroes, an accomplished hospital administrator named Carter Mecher, drew up a national pandemic response plan for the George W. Bush administration. The key to stopping dangerous pathogens, he came to believe as he studied pandemic modeling, was closing schools.

….

Here is a point that Mr. Lewis’s heroes show no awareness of grasping: that the United States is a big unruly country in which people are accustomed to going where they please and don’t care for government authorities telling them what to do based on poorly understood “data.” One of the Wolverines, a public-health official in Santa Barbara County named Charity Dean, appears to believe that any sign of a dangerous contagion permits health authorities to assume dictatorial powers. She tells Mr. Lewis that in early 2020 California should have closed its borders “until it figured out exactly how much virus was circulating, and where” and that the U.S. should follow Thailand’s example and require “anyone entering the country to wear a GPS wristband” and so enable the authorities to know who’s disobeying quarantine rules.

Author(s): Barton Swaim

Publication Date: 3 May 2021

Publication Site: Wall Street Journal

Book Link: https://amzn.to/3xLQZzS

Bidenomics Takes Root in Europe’s Economically Fragile South

Mary Pat Campbell

Link: https://www.wsj.com/articles/bidenomics-takes-root-in-europes-economically-fragile-south-11620039617

Excerpt:

Since the 1990s, Italian leaders have tried to overhaul the sclerotic economy while also running tight budgets. Mr. Draghi is the first in decades who can deploy massive fiscal firepower to help.

Italy’s economy has rarely grown by more than 1% annually over the past quarter-century. The economy has never fully recovered from the global financial crisis and subsequent eurozone crisis, and slumped by another 9% in 2020 amid the pandemic and strict lockdowns.

Germany, France and other EU countries backed the recovery fund mainly for fear that Italy and Southern Europe could get stuck in another deep economic slump that once again tests the cohesion and survival of the eurozone.

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Most of Greece’s debt is in bailout loans from the rest of the eurozone, with no repayments due for many years, making another Greek debt crisis unlikely for a long time.

Author(s): Giovanni Legorano

Publication Date: 3 May 2021

Publication Site: Wall Street Journal

Social Security Sees Slowdown in Retiree Rolls Amid Covid Deaths

Mary Pat Campbell

Link: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-05-03/social-security-sees-slowdown-in-retiree-rolls-amid-covid-deaths

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Excerpt:

The rate of growth in retired Americans who collect Social Security has slowed down sharply, and the drop may be due in part to the disproportionate number of deaths from Covid-19 among the elderly.

The number of people who received retirement benefits from the Social Security Administration rose 900,000 to 46.4 million in March, the smallest year-over-year gain since April 2009.

While the Office of the Chief Actuary at the government agency said it is still too early to assess the impact from Covid-19, the year-over-year change appears to reflect excess deaths. About 447,000 people who died from the virus were 65 or older, according to data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, or about 80% of total deaths.

Author(s): Alexandre Tanzi

Publication Date: 3 May 2021

Publication Site: Bloomberg

U.S. Household Income Surged by Record 21.1% in March

Mary Pat Campbell

Link: https://www.wsj.com/articles/consumer-spending-personal-income-march-2021-11619732790

Excerpt:

Household income rose at a record pace of 21.1% in March as federal stimulus checks helped fuel an economic revival.

The March surge in income was the largest monthly increase for government records tracing back to 1959, largely reflecting $1,400 stimulus checks included in President Biden’s fiscal relief package signed into law in March. The stimulus payments accounted for $3.948 trillion of the overall seasonally adjusted $4.213 trillion rise in March personal income.

Spending was also up sharply, increasing 4.2%, the Commerce Department said, the steepest month-over-month increase since last summer.

Consumers shelled out more on goods, particularly big-ticket items such as autos and furniture, compared with services in March. Economists expect that to change in the coming months due to widespread vaccinations and broader reopening of the economy.

Author(s): Sarah Chaney Cambon

Publication Date: 30 April 2021

Publication Site: Wall Street Journal

The Pandemic Hit Public Pension Funds Hard — But Now They’re Better Funded Than They’ve Been in Years

Mary Pat Campbell

Link: https://www.institutionalinvestor.com/article/b1rmn95n2tb93d/The-Pandemic-Hit-Public-Pension-Funds-Hard-But-Now-They-re-Better-Funded-Than-They-ve-Been-in-Years

Excerpt:

Plans that experienced larger declines in funded status may have “erased” losses and experienced “incrementally higher asset returns and funded status gains” as risk assets rallied through the latter half of the year, the report said.

“The same thing that caused volatility in their portfolios on the way down actually helped on the way back up,” said William Chang, pension strategist at GSAM.  “When the pandemic hit last year, it was one of the quickest drawdowns, one of the quickest declines in equity markets. And the subsequent recovery and exit out of that bear market was equally as quick.” 

At the end of March 2020, the top quartile of plan funded status was around 81 to 90 percent. By March 2021, that figure increased to 91 to 100 percent funded status, according to the report. GSAM attributed the improvement to the subsiding effects of the pandemic: rising vaccination numbers, declining initial jobless claims, and rising consumer confidence.

Author(s): Jessica Hamlin

Publication Date: 3 May 2021

Publication Site: Institutional Investor

Relaxing State and Local Tax Deduction Cap Would Make Tax Code Less Progressive

Mary Pat Campbell
Relaxing State and Local Tax Deduction Cap Would Make Tax Code Less Progressive

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Excerpt:

All three options would primarily benefit higher-earning tax filers, with repeal of the SALT cap increasing the after-tax income of the top 1 percent by about 2.8 percent; the bottom 80 percent would see minimal benefit.

Removing the marriage penalty and raising the SALT cap would also mostly benefit higher earners, though after-tax incomes of filers in the 95th to 99th income percentiles would rise the most. For example, raising the SALT cap to $15,000 single and $30,000 joint would result in a 0.8 percent increase in after-tax income for the 95th to 99th income percentiles and a 0.4 percent increase for the top 1 percent.

The top 1 percent benefits less because the SALT cap remains in place, so there is less of a benefit as a portion of their incomes when slightly increasing the cap. For example, a joint filer with $5 million in after-tax income could receive an additional $7,400 in reduced tax liability ($20,000 in increased SALT deductions times the 37 percent top individual income tax rate), which is a 0.1 percent increase in after-tax income.

Author(s): Garrett Watson

Publication Date: 3 May 2021

Publication Site: Tax Foundation

What NJ Tells Creditors On Benefits

Mary Pat Campbell
What NJ Tells Creditors On Benefits

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Excerpt:

According to the EMMA website New Jersey borrowed another $400 million last week for which they had to provide an Official Statement which included 20 pages on the situation with public pensions and benefits. Excerpts follow.

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The contribution of the Lottery Enterprise is valued as of June 30, 2020 at $12.569 billion, based on a 30-year straight line amortization. However, the first reevaluation of the value of the Lottery Enterprise required by LECA has not yet been performed. If the contribution of the Lottery Enterprise were not taken into consideration in calculating the funded ratio of the Pension Plans, the funded ratio of the Pension Plans as of June 30, 2020 would have been 37.6% instead of 49.8%. (page I-60)

Author(s): John Bury

Publication Date: 3 May 2021

Publication Site: Burypensions

NY State Pension Commits to $400 Million in Sustainable Investments

Mary Pat Campbell

Link: https://www.ai-cio.com/news/ny-state-pension-commits-400-million-sustainable-investments/

Excerpt:

The $247.7 billion New York State Common Retirement Fund has committed approximately $400 million to two funds as part of its Sustainable Investments and Climate Solutions (SICS) Program.

The commitments are part of New York State Comptroller Thomas DiNapoli’s climate action plan to lower investment risks from climate change and help shift the pension fund to net-zero greenhouse gas emissions within the next 20 years.

Author(s): Michael Katz

Publication Date: 26 April 2021

Publication Site: ai-CIO