Month: April 2021

Vaccine Efficacy and the Immunity Time Spans

Mary Pat Campbell

Link: https://polimath.substack.com/p/vaccine-efficacy-and-the-immunity

Graphic:

Excerpt:

Let’s refer back to the Pfizer study submitted to the FDA. In that study, 18,555 people were vaccinated and 18,533 people received the placebo injection. In these groups, 7 days after the second dose was administered, we saw that the vaccinated group got infected at only 5% the rate that the placebo group was infected.

Furthermore, this is the number of cases we see over the course of a two month study. So those 9 people out of 18,555 were not symptomatic and infectious that whole time, but only for a few weeks.

So, to take CNN’s example and re-imagine it for the reality we have with this data.

Let’s say 1 million people are travelling. If everyone is unvaccinated (and the window of infection is roughly one week), there will be about 1,100 infected travelers.

If, however, everyone is vaccinated, there will be about 60 infected travelers and their chance of infecting you (my dear vaccinated friend) is reduced substantially.

Author(s): PoliMath

Publication Date: 13 April 2021

Publication Site: Marginally Compelling on substack

J&J Covid-19 Vaccine Pause Driven by Risk of Mistreating Blood Clots

Mary Pat Campbell

Link: https://www.wsj.com/articles/j-j-covid-19-vaccine-was-paused-over-blood-clot-treatment-concerns-11618777554

Excerpt:

U.S. health authorities came close to simply warning about a blood-clotting risk from Johnson & Johnson’s Covid-19 vaccine, but they decided to recommend pausing use out of concern doctors would improperly treat the condition, people familiar with the matter said.

Over the previous four weeks, U.S. health officials had become alarmed about similar blood-clotting conditions in Europe involving a Covid-19 vaccine from AstraZeneca PLC, the people said. The officials dug into a U.S. vaccine safety database and identified the cases of great concern, but they debated what action to take.

By the night of April 12, the officials resolved that urgent action was needed, the people said. Four of six women in the U.S. who developed the clots days after vaccination had initially been given blood thinner heparin, according to the federal Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Its use could have worsened the patients’ condition, the people said.

Author(s): Thomas M. Burton and Betsy McKay

Publication Date: 18 April 2021

Publication Site: Wall Street Journal

Cerebral venous thrombosis: a retrospective cohort study of 513,284 confirmed COVID-19 cases and a comparison with 489,871 people receiving a COVID-19 mRNA vaccine

Mary Pat Campbell

Link: https://osf.io/a9jdq/

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Abstract:

Using an electronic health records network we estimated the absolute incidence of cerebral venous thrombosis (CVT) in the two weeks following COVID-19 diagnosis(N=513,284), or influenza (N=172,742), or receipt of the BNT162b2 or mRNA-1273 COVID-19 vaccines(N=489,871). The incidence of portal vein thrombosis (PVT) was also assessed in these groups, as well as the baselineCVTincidence over a two-week period. The incidence of CVT after COVID-19 diagnosis was 39.0 per million people (95% CI, 25.2–60.2). This was higher than the CVT incidence after influenza (0.0 per million people, 95% CI 0.0–22.2, adjusted RR=6.73, P=.003) or after receiving BNT162b2 or mRNA-1273 vaccine (4.1 per million people, 95% CI 1.1–14.9, adjusted RR=6.36, P<.001). The relative risks were similar if a broader definition of CVT was used. For PVT, the incidence was 436.4 per million people (382.9-497.4) after COVID-19, 98.4 (61.4-157.6) after influenza, and 44.9 (29.7-68.0) after BNT162b2 or mRNA-1273. The incidence of CVT following COVID-19 was higher than the incidence observed across the entire health records network (0.41 per million people over any 2-week period). Laboratory test results, available in a subset of the COVID-19 patients, provide preliminary evidence suggestive of raised D-dimer, lowered fibrinogen, and an increased rate of thrombocytopenia in the CVT and PVT groups. Mortality was 20% and 18.8% respectively. These data show that the incidence of CVT is significantly increased after COVID-19, and greater than that observed with BNT162b2 and mRNA-1273 COVID-19 vaccines. The risk of CVT following COVID-19 is also higher than the latest estimate from the European Medicines Agency for the incidence associated withChAdOx1 nCoV-19 vaccine (5.0 per million people, 95% CI 4.3–5.8). Although requiring replication and corroboration, the present data highlight the risk of serious thrombotic events in COVID-19, and can help contextualize the risks and benefits of vaccination in this regard.

Author(s): Maxime Taquet, Masud Husain, John R Geddes, Sierra Luciano, Paul J Harrison

Date Accessed: 19 April 2021

Publication Site: OSFHOME

Blood clots as prevalent with Pfizer and Moderna vaccine as with AstraZeneca’s: study

Mary Pat Campbell

Link: https://www.marketwatch.com/story/blood-clots-as-prevalent-with-pfizer-and-moderna-vaccine-as-with-astrazenecas-report-2021-04-15

Excerpt:

A study by Oxford University found the number of people who receive blood clots after getting vaccinated with a coronavirus vaccine are about the same for those who get Pfizer PFE, 2.43% and Moderna MRNA, 6.67% vaccines as they are for the AstraZeneca AZN, -0.16% vaccine that was produced with the university’s help. According to the study, 4 in 1 million people experience cerebral venous thrombosis after getting the Pfizer or Moderna vaccine, versus 5 in 1 million people for the AstraZeneca vaccine. The risk of getting CVT is much higher for those who get COVID-19 — 39 in a million patients — than it is for those who get vaccinated. AstraZeneca’s vaccine use has been halted or limited in many countries on blood clot concerns.

Author(s): Steve Goldstein

Publication Date: 15 April 2021

Publication Site: Marketwatch

Don Turner: The Vt. legislature’s irresponsibility on pensions

Mary Pat Campbell

Link: https://www.benningtonbanner.com/opinion/columnists/don-turner-the-vt-legislatures-irresponsibility-on-pensions/article_2def298e-9d2d-11eb-8652-6349f8c9cf60.html

Excerpt:

The last thing you do in the middle of a crisis is kick the can down the road. Yet, that’s exactly what the legislature just did on Vermont’s mounting pension liabilities.

Earlier this year, State Treasurer Beth Pearce delivered a long overdue message to the legislature — calling for painful cuts in order to keep the state employees’ and state teachers’ pensions operation. This comes years after resisting calls for structural reform to the pension system.

However, the treasurer deserves recognition for having the courage to at least present a plan. The legislature did too — with leadership in the House Government Operations Committee unveiling its own similar plan.

Author(s): Don Turner

Publication Date: 14 April 2021

Publication Site: Bennington Banner

SALT Cap Tussle: NY Democrats Have an Ultimatum

Mary Pat Campbell

Link: https://marypatcampbell.substack.com/p/salt-cap-tussle-ny-democrats-have

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Excerpt:

It’s not just a matter of the state/local tax levels for each state, but also what income levels are like for the state.

In any case, the pattern of which states’ taxpayers get the biggest boost from SALT deductibility might surprise you a little, such as with Utah and Georgia. But many aren’t surprising at all, such as New York and New Jersey.

But even without considering the geographical footprint, obviously high-income folks get the biggest boost from removing the SALT cap. This has been known since the TCJA back in 2017 when they imposed the cap to begin with. It’s partly why it was done.

Author(s): Mary Pat Campbell

Publication Date: 15 April 2021

Publication Site: STUMP at substack

Why some of the most liberal Democrats in Congress want to bring back a tax break for the rich

Mary Pat Campbell

Link: https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2021/4/14/22375306/salt-tax-deduction-repeal

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Excerpt:

The debate over Democrats’ next move on infrastructure, which Biden has put forth as part of his American Jobs Plan, and whether and how to pay for it through taxes, is just getting started. Plenty of proposals are going to be on the table, including SALT. The White House has signaled some openness to it, but the matter is far from settled.

“If Democrats want to propose a way to eliminate SALT — which is not a revenue raiser, as you know; it would cost more money — and they want to propose a way to pay for it, and they want to put that forward, we’re happy to hear their ideas,” White House press secretary Jen Psaki said at a press briefing on April 1.

….

According to estimates from the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities, if the SALT cap — which is set to expire in 2025 — were to be repealed earlier, it would overwhelmingly benefit those at the higher end of the income scale — the ones who were hurt by the bill back in 2017. The CBPP estimates that more than half of the benefit would go to the top 1 percent, and over 80 percent would go to the top 5 percent, of earners.

Author(s): Emily Stewart

Publication Date: 14 April 2021

Publication Site: Vox

NY House Democrats demand repeal of SALT cap

Mary Pat Campbell

Link: https://thehill.com/policy/finance/548046-ny-house-democrats-demand-repeal-of-salt-cap

Excerpt:

House Democrats from New York on Tuesday escalated their push for the repeal of the cap on the state and local tax deduction, threatening to oppose future tax legislation that doesn’t fully undo the $10,000 limit.

“As members of the New York Congressional Delegation, we urge you to insist on full repeal of the limitation on the State and Local Tax (SALT) deduction passed by Congress in 2017 and signed into law by former President Trump,” the lawmakers wrote in a letter to House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) and House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer (D-Md.). “This issue is so critical to our state and our constituents that we will reserve the right to oppose any tax legislation that does not include a full repeal of the SALT limitation.”

Every Democrat in New York’s House delegation signed the letter except Reps. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and Kathleen Rice.

Author(s): Naomi Jagoda

Publication Date: 13 April 2021

Publication Site: The Hill

U.S. Calls for Pause on Johnson & Johnson Vaccine After Clotting Cases

Mary Pat Campbell

Link: https://www.nytimes.com/2021/04/13/us/politics/johnson-johnson-vaccine-blood-clots-fda-cdc.html

Excerpt:

Federal health agencies on Tuesday called for an immediate pause in use of Johnson & Johnson’s single-dose coronavirus vaccine after six recipients in the United States developed a rare disorder involving blood clots within about two weeks of vaccination.

All six recipients were women between the ages of 18 and 48. One woman died and a second woman in Nebraska has been hospitalized in critical condition.

Nearly seven million people in the United States have received Johnson & Johnson shots so far, and roughly nine million more doses have been shipped out to the states, according to data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

Author(s): Noah Weiland, Sharon LaFraniere, Carl Zimmer

Publication Date: 13 April 2021

Publication Site: New York Times

Singing River retirees file new lawsuit over failed pension. ‘It’s not fair,’ nurse says

Mary Pat Campbell

Link: https://www.sunherald.com/news/local/counties/jackson-county/article250528304.html

Excerpt:

Singing River Health System retirees are learning to live on lower pensions than they expected as attorneys continue to press for financial damages from companies they believe are responsible.

A new lawsuit has been filed over the 2014 failure of the SRHS retirement plan, which caught hundreds of retirees and employees by surprise. Biloxi attorney Jim Reeves is suing accounting firm KPMG LLC and Transamerica Retirement Solutions on behalf of 272 members of the retirement plan.

Reeves said in a news release that the companies were paid “hundreds of thousands of dollars to help manage and audit the pension plan and to accurately communicate the status of the plan to members.”

Author(s): Anita Lee

Publication Date: 12 April 2021

Publication Site: SunHerald

Detroit’s Black Wealth Tax

Mary Pat Campbell

Link: https://www.city-journal.org/detroit-racial-wealth-gap-property-tax-policy

Excerpt:

But this is Detroit, which has the highest effective property tax rate of any major city in America, at 3.58 percent of market value. If the tax man assesses your house at its full renovation cost, this would add $537 to your monthly mortgage bill, bringing it to $1,295.

That hefty charge might not look too bad if the quality of local government services is top shelf. As Charles Tiebout observed in his classic 1956 article on local public finance, people “vote with their feet” and shop for their preferred combination of services and prices among various localities. Some happily buy at the public services equivalent of Neiman Marcus, others at Walmart.

From public safety to education to infrastructure, however, Detroit is no Neiman Marcus. To be charitable, let’s suppose the city’s services are on par with those of other Michigan cities, where the average property tax rate is 1.54 percent. Elsewhere, then, a comparable $180,000 investment comes with a monthly mortgage bill of just $989, or $306 a month less than in Detroit.

Author(s): Stephen J. K. Walters

Publication Date: 9 April 2021

Publication Site: City Journal

How States Can Gird for the Coming Fights Over Taxing Digital Ads

Mary Pat Campbell

Link: https://www.governing.com/finance/How-States-Can-Gird-for-the-Coming-Fights-Over-Taxing-Digital-Ads.html

Excerpt:

Maryland’s Legislature recently overrode a gubernatorial veto and enacted a new tax on digital advertising — the first of its kind among the states. It was inevitable that somebody would break the ice. Last August, I explored the revenue implications for states and localities of a federal tax on interstate digital commerce. Globally, the COVID-19 pandemic has accelerated business migration to Internet platforms, making this the new frontier for tax policy.

Maryland legislators deserve credit for planting their semi-checkered state flag first, to stake their claim, but they are still far from the finish line. Anti-tax wonks point to a host of possible legal snags that could tie up the Maryland tax for some time. They complain that it’s unduly vague, imprecisely crafted, and invites double taxation. The social media goliaths are already protesting that it’s unconstitutional under the commerce clause, which gives Congress supreme authority to regulate interstate business. To salvage its tax, Maryland may find it necessary to make defensible amendments that can withstand judicial scrutiny. But rather than going it alone, the state could use some help from its peers eyeing digital ad taxes of their own.

States have been called the laboratories of democracy, and rightfully so. However, when it comes to national and international commercial activity that sweeps across state lines through complex multi-party transactions, let’s face it: Heterogeneity and administrative complexity are not desirable outcomes. Fifty separate labs tinkering with different tax formulas will drive companies nuts.

Author(s): Girard Miller

Publication Date: 13 April 2021

Publication Site: Governing