Month: April 2021

Mortality with Meep: Location of Death Data for 1999-2020, Entire United States

Mary Pat Campbell

Link: https://marypatcampbell.substack.com/p/mortality-with-meep-looking-at-location

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Excerpt:

For a few locations, it’s pretty clear that COVID explains almost all their excess deaths: inpatient healthcare facilities and nursing homes. Indeed, it looks like over 100% of the nursing home excess mortality came from COVID, which accords with what I see with excess mortality for older people.

However, there is a lot of excess mortality for people who died at home, and most of that is currently unexplained by COVID.

I don’t think it will be — I think we will find those excess diabetes, heart attack, and ‘unintentional injury’ deaths will have been at home, and because of lockdowns there weren’t other people around to get these people to treatment before they died. This accords with what Emma Woodhouse saw for Illinois – that pattern holds for the entire U.S., it seems.

Author(s): Mary Pat Campbell

Publication Date: 20 April 2021

Publication Site: STUMP at substack

Deaths in Vehicle Crashes Up 38% in South Dakota in 2020

Mary Pat Campbell

Link: https://www.insurancejournal.com/news/midwest/2021/04/16/610222.htm

Excerpt:

The number of traffic crash fatalities in South Dakota rose to 141 last year — an increase of 38% over the previous year.

The South Dakota Department of Public Safety said in 2020, there were 132 crashes in which the fatalities occurred.

In 2019, 102 people were killed in motor vehicle crashes, the lowest in state history since records have been kept beginning in 1947. The number of fatal crashes in 2019 was 88, also a record low.

Publication Date: 16 April 2021

Publication Site: Insurance Journal

Milliman analysis: Public pensions’ funded ratio hits new high at 79.0% in Q1 2021

Mary Pat Campbell

Link: https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/milliman-analysis-public-pensions-funded-ratio-hits-new-high-at-79-0-in-q1-2021–301271688.html

Excerpt:

In 2021, public pensions have continued their strong recovery from a year prior, with the funded status of the Milliman 100 plans increasing to 79.0% as of March 31, up from 78.6% at the end of December 2020 and 66.0% in Q1 2020. The Q1 2021 funded ratio is the highest recorded in the history of Milliman’s Public Pension Funding Study.

“While 2021 has proven to be a strong year for public pensions so far, there are still lingering questions around the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on these plans,” said Becky Sielman, author of Milliman’s Public Pension Funding Study. “The past year has seen workforce volatility and strain on state budgets which could put downward pressure on funding in the future.”

Author(s): Milliman

Publication Date: 19 April 2021

Publication Site: PRNewswire

Continuing COVID hangover would see pension liabilities drop

Mary Pat Campbell

Link: https://www.actuarialpost.co.uk/article/continuing-covid-hangover-would-see-pension-liabilities-drop-19483.htm

Excerpt:

Only in the event of a tragic Covid-19 scenario, seeing continued substantial additional deaths for many years would there be a significant reduction in UK DB scheme liabilities, according to a new report from LCP.


While LCP believes that the financial impact on DB schemes of direct deaths from the first two Covid-19 waves is likely to be marginal, it outlines several other scenarios around the pandemic’s longer-term impact on mortality rates and scheme labilities. The range of outcomes illustrates the challenges of choosing an appropriate mortality assumption at the current time, with much uncertainty over how Covid-19 will play out.

Author(s): Chris Tavener

Date Accessed: 20 April 2021

Publication Site: Actuarial Post (UK)

Massachusetts COVID-19 Vaccine Tracker

Mary Pat Campbell
COVID-19 Vaccine Tracker

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Excerpt:

COVID-19 vaccination, particularly the disparity of rates between racial and ethnic groups, takes up much of the current talk about the pandemic. The Massachusetts Department of Public Health (DPH) publishes vaccination data every day, for municipalities, tracking rates by age group, racial and ethnic groups, and by gender.

Pioneer is proud to present a new vaccine tracker, the newest tool in our COVID-19 tracking project. Pioneer distilled the vaccination data down to those who are either fully vaccinated or partially vaccinated, by all the demographic categories published by the DPH. Use the new tool below to compare rates among groups, by municipality and by county. We will update the data every week.

Date Accessed: 20 April 2021

Publication Site: Pioneer Institute

The SALT Subsidy

Mary Pat Campbell

Link: https://www.nationalreview.com/corner/the-salt-subsidy/

Excerpt:

“Taxed twice on the same income”: This is an argument sometimes brought out in favor of the state and local tax deduction, or SALT. But it doesn’t really hold water.

It’s not problematic for different taxes, funding different services, to use the same denominator. County and municipal governments often tax the same property, for instance, and local and state governments often impose sales taxes on the same transactions. In these cases, requiring one tax to be deducted before the other was calculated would just be silly, because legislators would simply increase the second tax’s rate enough to offset the loss, leaving everything back where it started.

With SALT, though, there’s no simple solution like that — federal tax rates apply across the entire nation, while state and local taxes vary from place to place. A federal deduction subsidizes places with high taxes by collecting less federal revenue from those places, while any overall rate increase will hit the whole country. Blue-state lawmakers like Nadler like SALT, and want to get rid of the cap on it, because they want that subsidy, not because it’s fair tax policy.

Author(s): Robert Verbruggen

Publication Date: 15 April 2021

Publication Site: National Review

Cell Maps – Critical Comments

Mary Pat Campbell

Link: https://logiccomppeople.blogspot.com/2021/04/cell-maps-critical-comments.html

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Excerpt:

Cell maps are intended as tools for reviewing spreadsheets. If you spot an error or an inconsistency in the cell map this should be recorded and, if practicable, corrected.

The cell mapping software provides a method for recording a reviewer’s comments. All comments are linked to a specific map (or data table), The comments for a workbook under review are collated in a single worksheet.

Publication Date: 18 April 2021

Publication Site: Logic, Computing, and People

What Makes You More Likely to Get Side Effects From COVID Vaccine?

Mary Pat Campbell
What Makes You More Likely to Get Side Effects From COVID Vaccine?

Excerpt:

Chicago’s top doctor, Chicago Department of Public Health Commissioner Dr. Allison Arwady, broke it down Thursday, saying in Facebook Live that younger people are more likely to experience side effects “because younger people have more robust immune system broadly.”

And, according to Loafman, the body’s immune system is what creates the symptoms.

“That’s simply a reflection of the immune response, just the way we have when we get ill,” he said.

Publication Date: 13 April 2021

Publication Site: NBC Chicago

Applications for New Businesses Have a Double-WTF Moment

Mary Pat Campbell
Applications for New Businesses Have a Double-WTF Moment

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Excerpt:

I don’t remember anything that has ever drawn so much fraud to itself, like an industrial magnet attracting ferrous scrap metal, as the federal government programs to support the unemployed and struggling businesses.

When it comes to this twin-spike in business applications, the forgivable Payroll Protection Program (PPP) loans and Economic Injury Disaster loans come to mind immediately – especially since the spike into July, and then the renewed spike this year, are timed with the two PPP generations.

Businesses that applied for the PPP loans had to submit documentation of wages paid over specified periods. The first-generation PPP program ended on August 8, 2020. The second-generation PPP program started this year and remains open.

The dates were structured so that it would be impossible by honest people to create a business entity after the announcement, pay wages for long enough to qualify for a PPP loan, and then apply for a PPP loan. Applicants had to submit historical wage documentation to the lenders whose job it was to check all this out.

Author(s): Wolf Richter

Publication Date: 16 April 2021

Publication Site: Wolf Street

Prolonged brain dysfunction in COVID-19 survivors: A pandemic in its own right?

Mary Pat Campbell

Link: https://theconversation.com/prolonged-brain-dysfunction-in-covid-19-survivors-a-pandemic-in-its-own-right-158743

Excerpt:

One in three survivors of COVID-19, those more commonly referred to as COVID-19 long-haulers, suffered from neurologic or psychiatric disability six months after infection, a recent landmark study of more than 200,000 post-COVID-19 patients showed.

Researchers looked at 236,379 British patients diagnosed with COVID-19 over six months, analyzing neurologic and psychiatric complications during that time period. They compared those individuals to others who had experienced similar respiratory illnesses that were not COVID-19.

They found a significant increase in several medical conditions among the COVID-19 group, including memory loss, nerve disorders, anxiety, depression, substance abuse and insomnia. Additionally, the symptoms were present among all age groups and in patients who were asymptomatic, isolating in home quarantine, and those admitted to hospitals.

Author(s): Chris Robinson

Publication Date: 15 April 2021

Publication Site: The Conversation

Ukraine raises retirement age for women to 60 years old

Mary Pat Campbell

Link: http://www.xinhuanet.com/english/europe/2021-04/02/c_139854924.htm

Excerpt:

The Ukrainian government has raised the age of retirement for women to 60 years old since April 1 this year.

The change was due to the law on raising the retirement age for women from 55 to 60 years old, which was passed by the Ukrainian Parliament in 2011.

Now in Ukraine men and women retire at the same age.

The Ukrainian authorities explained that the increase in the retirement age for women was to mitigate the negative consequences of the aging population, and reduce the deficit of the Pension Fund of Ukraine, which at the end of 2020 reached 13.2 billion hryvnia (474.5 million U.S. dollars).

Publication Date: 2 April 2021

Publication Site: Xinhua

The Average Retirement Age in Every State

Mary Pat Campbell

Link: https://finance.yahoo.com/news/average-retirement-age-every-state-150000450.html

Excerpt:

Retiring early seems to be on everyone’s minds these days. The growing popularity of the so-called FIRE movement — short for financial independence, retire early — is a testament to how much everyone seems to be craving a slice of “the easy life.” The good news is that in many U.S. states, what most people would call an “early” retirement is within reach. Although “full retirement age” for Social Security purposes isn’t until age 67, the average retirement age in every single state — with the exception of the District of Columbia — is below 67. On average, retirees in the U.S. hang up their work boots at age 64, according to Money Talks News.

Of course, to truly live a comfortable retirement takes more than desire — it also takes a large chunk of cash.

If nothing else, this study proves two things. First, the state in which you live can play a big role in how early you can retire, as evidenced by the low average retirement ages across wide swaths of the South and Midwest. Next, it takes more than $1 million to have a comfortable retirement in any state in America — or over $2 million in the case of Hawaii and the District of Columbia — so it’s important to work with a retirement advisor or the best 401(k) providers to help boost your savings as much as possible.

Author(s): John Csiszar

Publication Date: 11 March 2021

Publication Site: Yahoo Finance