Red Jahncke: A study’s error distorts debate on state pensions

Link: https://www.journalinquirer.com/opinion/other_commentary/red-jahncke-a-study-s-error-distorts-debate-on-state-pensions/article_498958aa-9872-11eb-bc83-837e67f2c17c.html

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Because Connecticut employees contributed so little to their own pensions, the cost to the state was actually higher than the average cost of pension benefits in the 50 states,  Here are the numbers from the center’s study (page 17). In 2014, Connecticut contributed 8.0% to SERS, while the 50-state average contribution was 7.0%. These percentages are pension cost as a percent of payroll cost.

The higher level in Connecticut was necessary because state employees contributed only 2.2% to their own pensions, while the 50-state average employee contribution was triple that amount, or 6.6%.

The differential between Connecticut’s 8% and the national average of 7% amounted to a 14.3% higher level in Connecticut. Either way you look at the extra 14.3% – as a higher state cost or as a larger employee benefit – it was overly generous. So how did the center make its mistake? Instead of recognizing the impact of the level of employee contributions, the center glossed over them and only looked at the gross unallocated cost of pension benefits, namely 10.2% in Connecticut versus an average of 13.6% in the 50 states. This creates an illusion opposite to reality. The fair and accurate measure is net cost for the state and net benefit for employees, which, in Connecticut, was 8%. The gross cost of the benefit of 10.2% was offset by the employee contributions of 2.2%, leaving both the state’s net cost and the employee’s net benefit at 8%. Nationally, a gross cost of 13.6% was offset by employee contributions of 6.6%, leaving a lower net cost/benefit of 7%.

Author(s): Red Jahncke

Publication Date: 8 April 2021

Publication Site: Journal Inquirer

Florida Senate OKs not offering state pension to many new workers, including teachers

Link: https://www.miamiherald.com/news/politics-government/state-politics/article250520864.html

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Amid fierce opposition from Democrats, the Florida Senate on Thursday approved a proposal that would block future teachers and other government workers from enrolling in the state’s traditional pension plan.

The Senate voted 24-16 to back the change, which would take effect with employees hired as of July 1, 2022. Those workers would be required to enroll in a 401(k)-style plan — though what are known as “special risk” employees, such as law-enforcement officers, correctional officers and firefighters, would still be able to take part in the traditional pension system.

Lawmakers have debated such a move for years, as private employers have largely moved away from traditional pensions and shifted to 401(k) retirement plans. Currently, government employees can decide whether to enroll in the state pension plan or a 401(k)-style plan.

Author(s): JIM SAUNDERS NEWS SERVICE OF FLORIDA

Publication Date: 8 April 2021

Publication Site: Miami Herald

Ahead of the curve: Modelling the unmodellable

Link: https://www.ipe.com/home/ahead-of-the-curve-modelling-the-unmodellable/10051869.article

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In his youth, the economist Kenneth Arrow analysed weather forecasts for the US Army. When he found that the predictions were as reliable as historical averages, he suggested reallocating manpower. The response from the army general’s office? “The general is well aware that your division’s forecasts are worthless. However, they are required for planning purposes.”

Even before COVID-19, many shared that scepticism of forecasts. The failure to foresee the 2008-09 financial crisis started a debate on economic modelling. Over the past year, the performance of epidemiological models has not resolved this quandary.

Investors have long known that “all models are wrong, but some are useful,” to use the statistician George Box’s pithy idiom. But, there are modellers who use this defence to preserve models beyond usefulness. Meanwhile, there are unrealistic expectations from consumers of models including investors, policymakers and society. They assume that complex issues are easy to forecast, when some things are just unknowable. This gap begs the question of what investors should do.

Author(s): Sahil Mahtani

Publication Date: April 2021

Publication Site: Investments & Pensions Europe

San Diego’s pension payment spiking $50M, worsening budget crisis during pandemic

Link: https://www.sandiegouniontribune.com/news/politics/story/2021-01-17/san-diegos-pension-payment-spiking-50m-worsening-budget-crisis-during-pandemic

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San Diego’s annual pension payment will rise by nearly $50 million this June, making it much harder for the tourism-reliant city to balance its budget while tax revenues continue their sharp slide due to the COVID-19 pandemic.

The city’s pension board is requiring a $49.3 million spike in the annual pension payment — from $365.6 million a year to $414.9 million — because estimates of long-term pension debt rose this year from just over $3 billion to $3.34 billion.

Author(s): David Garrick

Publication Date: 17 January 2021

Publication Site: San Diego Union-Tribune

NJ Pension Palaver

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Public employees and their unions are certainly to blame for allowing promises made to not be fully funded,

Those contributions that public employees make are negotiated at levels they have input into (nothing to do with funding benefits honestly); and

What worthwhile programs for New Jerseyans did those tens of billions of dollars in missed payments fund and, if that money was invested wisely, shouldn’t New Jerseyans be reaping some benefits around now? If the money was not invested wisely then why begrudge not having more of it to waste?

Author(s): John Bury

Publication Date: 11 April 2021

Publication Site: Burypensions

Think Twice Before Paying Off Your Mortgage Early

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The concern with this exercise is its reliance on past returns. With interest rates near zero, significant economic growth is needed to generate market returns close to those experienced over the last 100 years – approximately 11% per annum. To explore the implications of different future investment performance, let’s repeat the process above by reducing the average return of historical stock returns while maintaining the same risk (i.e., volatility).

Panel A shows that as the return on Lena’s savings increases, i.e., we move from left to right along the horizontal axis, the value of investing the money relative to paying off the mortgage early increases. At a 3% savings return, the cost of her mortgage, Lena would be indifferent between saving extra money and paying down her mortgage early because both options lead to similar average savings balances after 30 years. Savings rates higher (lower) than 3% lead to higher (lower) savings for Lena if she invests her money as opposed to paying down her mortgage early. For example, a 5.5% average return on savings, half that of the historical return, leads to an extra $57,000 in after-tax savings if Lena invests the $210 per month as opposed to using it to pay down her mortgage more quickly.

Panel B illustrates the relative risk of the investment strategy. When the return on savings is 3%, the same as the cost of the mortgage, the choice between investing the money and paying down the mortgage comes down to a coin flip; there is a 50-50 chance that either option will lead to a better outcome. However, if future average market returns are 5.5%, for example, the probability that investing extra money leads to less savings than paying down the mortgage early is only 26%. For average returns above 6.5%, the probability that investing the extra money is a bad choice is zero. In other words, there hasn’t been a 30-year historical period in which the average stock market return was below 3%, even when the average return for the 100-year period was only 6.5%.

Author(s): Michael R. Roberts

Publication Date: 15 March 2021

Publication Site: Knowledge @ Wharton

Peter Roff: Beware the Pension Bailout Hidden Inside COVID-19 Relief Bill

Link: https://www.noozhawk.com/article/peter_roff_beware_pension_bailout_hidden_inside_covid_19_bill_20210403

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California’s total estimated pension liability is something like $1 trillion. To balance its books, Sacramento had to get money from taxpayers in Florida, South Dakota, Utah and, other, better-managed states (through the COVID-19 stimulus) to close the gap.

Whether it will be enough to stop municipal fire departments from bringing private ambulance and medical services “in-house” is yet to be seen. Hopefully, it will — which would be a good thing for taxpayers and people in need.

Otherwise, the pattern of using federal reimbursements for services provided to cover the losses in underfunded public employee pension plans will continue, much to the determinant of taxpayers.

Author(s): Peter Roff

Publication Date: 3 April 2021

Publication Site: Noozhawk

Private Equity and Hedge Funds Survived the 2008 Crisis. Now They’re Making a Killing Off COVID-19.

Link: https://jacobinmag.com/2021/04/private-equity-hedge-funds-covid-profits

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What is a shadow bank?

The term shadow bank refers to things like hedge funds, venture capital firms, and private equity, which all have relatively less oversight than traditional financial institutions. These are all lending intermediaries, or institutions that lend money that fall outside of the mainstream regulatory structure of finance. They’re either situated outside of investment banks, or they exist in less regulated arenas of investment banks, perhaps in offshore settings. One example you might be familiar with is the big private equity firm Blackstone. Another is the big hedge fund Bridgewater.

The “shadow” label implies a degree of opacity, because frequently they make investments that are harder to understand, often in private markets rather than public markets. But it also refers to the fact that they’re lending in the shadow of larger institutions. This partially because they’re deemed to have sophisticated investors by the Securities and Exchange Commission and are therefore designated as subject to less oversight.

Author(s): Megan Tobias Neely interviewed by Meagan Day

Publication Date: 8 April 2021

Publication Site: Jacobin Magazine

Sorry, the Economic Crisis Is Over

Link: https://www.wsj.com/articles/sorry-the-economic-crisis-is-over-11617662226?mod=opinion_lead_pos2

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It’s getting harder for the Biden Administration to claim we’re in an economic crisis that demands more spending. It’s closer to the truth to say the economy is growing in a way that calls for spending and monetary restraint.

The latest evidence arrived Monday with the Institute for Supply Management’s news that its March survey for service businesses hit 63.7. That’s an all-time high, and it signifies rapid growth and optimism. The only problem is that many businesses say they can’t find enough workers or supplies to meet their order books.

That follows Friday’s blowout employment report for March, with a net total of 1.07 million new jobs including revisions from the previous two months. Wage gains were bigger than they looked at first glance, given that many returning workers were those in lower-wage services jobs hurt by the pandemic.

Author(s): Editorial Board

Publication Date: 6 April 2021

Publication Site: Wall Street Journal

The End of Joe Biden’s Student Debt Prison May Be in Sight

Link: https://jacobinmag.com/2021/04/biden-student-debt-loan-forgiveness-bankruptcy

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Bankruptcy courts have not been friendly to student borrowers. That’s at least partly attributable to Biden. In 2005, “the senator from MBNA,” so named for his close relationship with the credit card company that was also his largest donor, was one of eighteen Senate Democrats who backed a successful Republican-led bankruptcy reform bill that stripped private student loans of bankruptcy protection amid an explosion of private loan debt.

“He is a zealous advocate on behalf of one of his biggest contributors — the financial services industry,” Senator Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) said of Biden at the time.

For his part, Biden argued the law was necessary to prevent abuse of the system by borrowers who could afford to repay some of their debt. He and other supporters of the bankruptcy bill claimed the legislation would enable private lenders to lower costs for people seeking credit. But both arguments were ultimately proven wrong — abuse was minimal, and interest rates in general did not go down. Instead, the law resulted in a system that leaves borrowers with few options for relief.

Author(s): Walker Bragman

Publication Date: 8 April 2021

Publication Site: Jacobin Magazine

Pritzker Lobbies For Huge Federal Tax Cut For The Rich With Dishonest Letter To Biden – Wirepoints

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The SALT cap increased “taxes on hardworking families,” says the letter. That’s “untenable given the dire economic conditions caused by the pandemic.” It goes on to say, “In short, middle-class Americans are struggling under this federal tax burden, while corporations – which are still able to fully deduct SALT as business expenses – are profiting because of the same law. The negative impacts of the SALT cap on middle class families are particularly egregious when you consider that in the states most affected by this cap, the federal government already takes more in federal taxes than the states receive in federal support, effectively subsidizing federal payments to other states.”

Tax analysts on the right and the left have documented why that’s completely false. The cap on SALT deductions was a windfall for the middle class and hammered high income taxpayers. The conservative Tax Foundation explained why here, and the liberal Institute on Taxation and Economic Policy, ITEP, wrote this in an article opposing elimination of the cap:

ITEP estimated that this would cost more than $90 billion in a single year. We found that 62 percent of the benefits would go to the richest 1 percent and 86 percent would go to the richest 5 percent. There is no state where this is a primarily middle-class issue. In every state and the District of Columbia, more than half of the benefits would go to the richest 5 percent of taxpayers. In all but six states, more than half of the benefits would go to the richest 1 percent. 

Author(s): Mark Glennon

Publication Date: 5 April 2021

Publication Site: Wirepoints

The older you get, the higher your life expectancy

Link: https://blog.datawrapper.de/the-older-you-get-the-higher-your-life-expectancy/

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But here’s what I only started to understand last week (and I was kind of mind-blown by that, so I’m thrilled to share it with you): Our life expectancy increases with every minute we live. When I turned 30, my life expectancy got up to 90.37 years. Once I turn 80, it’ll be 93.76 years.

Author(s): Lisa Charlotte Rost

Publication Date: 25 March 2021

Publication Site: Datawrapper