Month: March 2021

Washington helped Illinois kick the can again, rating agencies affirm, so expect no fiscal reforms – Wirepoints

Mary Pat Campbell
Washington helped Illinois kick the can again, rating agencies affirm, so expect no fiscal reforms – Wirepoints

Excerpt:

The recently signed American Rescue Plan designated about $7.5 billion of new money directly for the state’s government. Tens of billions of more federal dollars indirectly help the Illinois budget by assisting higher education, K-12 schools and municipalities. Direct aid to people and businesses also kept tax revenue flowing at far higher rates than initially projected.

In fact, federal money from the American Rescue Plan alone dwarfs the revenue lost to the state because of COVID and the lockdowns by a stunning 1665%, according to a Tax Foundation estimate.

It should be noted, however, that federal cash has been showered on the entire nation, where it needs it and not. The State of Wisconsin, for example, is getting $3.2 billion in direct money from the American Rescue Plan even though the state has a budget surplus. We are still waiting for a comprehensive analysis of all recent federal aid to determine whether Illinois got more than its fair share. Surprisingly, nobody seems to have offered one yet that includes all units of government and private sector assistance.

Author(s): Mark Glennon

Publication Date: 17 March 2021

Publication Site: Wirepoints

Actuarial Standards Board 2020 Annual Report

Mary Pat Campbell

Link: http://www.actuarialstandardsboard.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/asb2020Annual.pdf

Excerpt:

The Pension Committee, chaired by David Kausch, continued work on ASOP No. 27,
Selection of Economic Assumptions for Measuring Pension Obligations, and ASOP No. 35,
Selection of Demographic and Other Noneconomic Assumptions for Measuring Pension
Obligations. The ASB adopted both revisions in June.


The Pension Committee also continued its work on ASOP No. 4, Measuring Pension
Obligations and Determining Pension Plan Costs or Contributions.

Date Accessed: 27 March 2021

Publication Site: Actuarial Standards Board

No one can find the animal that gave people covid-19

Mary Pat Campbell

Link: https://www.technologyreview.com/2021/03/26/1021263/bat-covid-coronavirus-cause-origin-wuhan/

Excerpt:

That’s a reasonable theory: other bat coronaviruses have jumped to humans the same way. In fact, it was the origin of SARS, a similar coronavirus that panicked the world in 2003 when it spread out of southern China and sickened 8,000 people. With SARS, researchers tested caged market animals and quickly found a nearly identical virus in Himalayan palm civet cats and raccoon dogs, which are also eaten locally.

This time, though, the intermediate-host hypothesis has one big problem. More than a year after covid-19 began, no food animal has been identified as a reservoir for the pandemic virus. That’s despite efforts by China to test tens of thousands of animals, including pigs, goats, and geese, according to Liang Wannian, who leads the Chinese side of the research team. No one has found a “direct progenitor” of the virus, he says, and therefore the pandemic “remains an unsolved mystery.”

Author(s): Antonio Regalado

Publication Date: 16 March 2021

Publication Site: MIT Technology Review

How a Software Error Made Spain’s Child COVID-19 Mortality Rate Skyrocket

Mary Pat Campbell

Link: https://slate.com/technology/2021/03/excel-error-spain-child-covid-death-rate.html

Excerpt:

“Even though I didn’t know what the problem was, I knew it wasn’t the right data,” Soler realized once he got his hands on the Lancet paper. “Our data is not worse than other countries. I would say it is even better,” he says. Pediatricians across the nation contacted Spain’s main research institutes, as well as hospitals and regional governments. Eventually, they discovered that the national government somehow misreported the data. It’s hard to pinpoint exactly what went wrong, but Soler says the main issue is that patient deaths for those over 100 were recorded as children. He believes that the system couldn’t record three-digit numbers, and so instead registered them as one-digit. For example, a 102-year-old was registered as a 2-year-old in the system. Soler notes that not all centenarian deaths were misreported as children, but at least 47 were. This inflated the child mortality rate so much, Soler explains, because the number of children who had died was so small. Any tiny mistake causes a huge change in the data.

Author(s): ELENA DEBRÉ

Publication Date: 25 March 2021

Publication Site: Slate

Actuarial Board for Counseling and Discipline: 2020 Annual Report

Mary Pat Campbell

Link: http://www.abcdboard.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/ABCD-Annual-2020.pdf

Excerpt:

There were 47 inquiries in process with the ABCD during 2020, based on either complaints or adverse information.
Twenty-four of these were disposed of during 2020.

….

The ABCD members responded to 127 requests for guidance during 2020.

Publication Date: February 2021

Publication Site: Actuarial Board for Counseling and Discipline

The EU Vaccine Debacle

Mary Pat Campbell

Link: https://www.nationalreview.com/2021/03/the-eu-vaccine-debacle/

Excerpt:

Supported by Angela Merkel, the German chancellor, the EU Commission (its administrative arm) took over the negotiations with vaccine manufacturers on behalf of all EU member-states last June. This was designed both as a declaration of EU “solidarity” and because of the belief that bargaining on behalf of the whole bloc could secure the vaccine at a cheaper price, a calculation that appeared to take little account of the economic costs of any delays, and delay was what — for a variety of reasons — Brussels delivered.

The U.K. came to its deal with AstraZeneca (the manufacturer of the Oxford vaccine) three months earlier than the EU, and its contract came with sharper teeth. The EU also took four months longer than the U.K. and U.S. to sign up with Pfizer.

Making matters worse, the EU’s FDA, the European Medicines Agency (EMA), a body by definition particularly receptive to the precautionary principle that plays such a dominant role in EU policy-making (except when it comes to setting up a new currency), took its time to approve the first vaccines. Its first approval came some weeks after the U.K. and ten days or so after the U.S.

Author(s): Editorial Board

Publication Date: 25 March 2021

Publication Site: National Review

Patterns of COVID-19 pandemic dynamics following deployment of a broad national immunization program

Mary Pat Campbell

Link: https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.02.08.21251325v2.full-text

Graphic:

Abstract:

Studies on the real-life impact of the BNT162b2 vaccine, recently authorized for the prevention of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), are urgently needed. Here, we analysed the temporal dynamics of the number of new COVID-19 cases and hospitalization in Israel following a rapid vaccination campaign initiated on December 20th, 2020. We conducted a retrospective descriptive analysis of data originating from the Israeli Ministry of Health (MOH) from March 2020 to February 2021. In order to distill the possible effect of the vaccinations from other factors, including a third lockdown imposed in Israel on January 2021, we compared the time-dependent changes in number of COVID-19 cases and hospitalizations between (1) individuals aged 60 years and older, eligible to receive the vaccine earlier, and younger age groups; (2) the latest lockdown (which was imposed in parallel to the vaccine rollout) versus the previous lockdown, imposed on September 2020; (3) early-vaccinated cities compared to late-vaccinated cities; and (4) early-vaccinated geographical statistical areas (GSAs) compared to late-vaccinated GSAs. In mid-January, the number of COVID-19 cases and hospitalization started to decline, with a larger and earlier decrease among older individuals, followed by younger age groups, by the order in which they were prioritized for vaccination. This fast and early decline in older individuals was more evident in early-vaccinated compared to late-vaccinated cities. Such a pattern was not observed in the previous lockdown. Our analysis demonstrates evidence for the real-life impact of a national vaccination campaign in Israel on the pandemic dynamics. We believe that our findings have major public health implications in the struggle against the COVID-19 pandemic, including the public ’s perception of the need for and benefit of nationwide vaccination campaigns. More studies aimed at assessing the effectiveness and impact of vaccination both on the individual and on the population level, with longer followup, are needed.

Author(s): Hagai Rossman, Smadar Shilo, Tomer Meir, Malka Gorfine, Uri Shalit, Eran Segal

Publication Date: 8 March 2021

Publication Site: MedRXiV

The Coming Demand Surge Brings Back Memories of 1970s Inflation

Mary Pat Campbell

Link: https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-coming-demand-surge-brings-back-memories-of-1970s-inflation-11616624489

Excerpt:

There are eerie parallels today. In 1973, the U.S. was coming off a two-year experiment in wage and price controls, which artificially depressed prices and muted signals that the economy was overheating. Then, too, the Fed pursued an easy-money policy, keeping interest rates low — though considerably higher than now, and without today’s purchases of bonds and mortgage securities.

By the end of 1972, before the inflationary jump, the U.S. economy seemed even stronger than it is now, growing at an annual rate of more than 8%. Unemployment was down to 3.4%, and inflation was a seemingly manageable 5.6%. The pre-pandemic 2020 U.S. economy was also very strong, growing at a 3% annual rate, with historically low unemployment of under 4% and inflation hovering around only 1%.

In 2021 we’re emerging from the pandemic shutdown, which cratered growth and slammed the economy — depressing price pressures, not unlike what the price-control program did 50 years ago. Today’s Fed policies are even more expansive. And Congress has just enacted a $1.9 trillion stimulus bill — on top of earlier relief bills costing another nearly $2 trillion, a lot of which remains unspent and will continue to fuel demand this year and beyond.

Author(s): William N. Walker

Publication Date: 24 March 2021

Publication Site: Wall Street Journal

AstraZeneca Releases Updated Covid-19 Vaccine Data Showing 76% Efficacy

Mary Pat Campbell

Link: https://www.wsj.com/articles/astrazeneca-releases-more-data-on-its-covid-19-vaccine-11616637984

Excerpt:

Aside from finding the vaccine 79% effective, the preliminary results indicated the vaccine was even more effective in study subjects ages 65 years and older, and the shot was safe.

The late-stage, or Phase 3, trial had 32,449 subjects in the U.S., Peru and Chile. About 20% of them were 65 years or older.

The fuller data showed the vaccine to be 85% effective in the older age group. Older adults are considered more vulnerable to serious Covid-19, making them a high-priority group in vaccinations globally.

Though AstraZeneca’s latest release involved more cases, the company’s analysis might still be incomplete. AstraZeneca said it was reviewing an additional 14 cases to see if they should be added to the final tally.

Author(s): Jenny Strasburg, Joseph Walker

Publication Date: 24 March 2021

Publication Site: Wall Street Journal

The Spike in Drug Overdose Deaths During the COVID-19 Pandemic and Policy Options to Move Forward

Mary Pat Campbell

Link: https://www.commonwealthfund.org/blog/2021/spike-drug-overdose-deaths-during-covid-19-pandemic-and-policy-options-move-forward

Graphic:

Excerpt:

The CDC’s National Vital Statistics System (NVSS) provides monthly provisional data on predicted total drug overdose deaths during the preceding 12 months. The most recent data reflect September 2019 through August 2020. During that period, there were 88,295 predicted deaths, a record high that is almost 19,000 more deaths (27%) than the prior 12-month period.

Using these predicted data in combination with final data from 2019, we estimated monthly overdose deaths from January to August 2020. Our estimates show that total overdose deaths spiked to record levels in March 2020 after the pandemic hit. Monthly deaths grew by about 50 percent between February and May to more than 9,000; they were likely still around 8,000 in August. Prior to 2020, U.S. monthly overdose deaths had never risen above 6,300.

Author(s): Jesse C. Baumgartner, David C. Radley

Publication Date: 25 March 2021

Publication Site: The Commonwealth Fund

Firearm Mortality Rate, Deaths by State: Map

Mary Pat Campbell

Link: https://www.governing.com/now/Firearm-Mortality-Rate-Deaths-by-State-Map.html

Graphic:

Excerpt:

But when firearm mortality is viewed state by state, a strong variation emerges. Using data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Massachusetts had the lowest death rate of just 3.4 per 100,000 in 2019, the latest year data is available. Alaska and Mississippi are tied for the highest: 24 deaths per 100,000. The following map and table provide specific numbers for each state.

Publication Date: 24 March 2021

Publication Site: Governing

Vaccines are making some long Covid sufferers feel better

Mary Pat Campbell

Link: https://www.wired.co.uk/article/covid-19-long-haulers-vaccine?mc_cid=4922be2694&mc_eid=983bcf5922

Excerpt:

Brown’s story isn’t unusual. Around the world, many members of the long Covid community are reporting a remarkable improvement after receiving the vaccine. Although there is no definitive data on how many are experiencing this, informal surveys report up to 30 per cent of long-haulers whose symptoms have improved following vaccination. The majority report feeling the same, with fewer reporting a worsening of symptoms after receiving the vaccine.

Many long-haulers had initially expressed apprehension about the vaccine, for fear it would exacerbate their condition. But the opposite appears to be the case for some. Figuring out why could be the key to finally understanding what causes the mysterious ailment, once and for all.

Author(s): Grace Browne

Publication Date: 25 March 2021

Publication Site: Wired UK