Month: March 2021

Is the lot of female executives improving?

Mary Pat Campbell

Link: https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2021/03/04/is-the-lot-of-female-executives-improving

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WALL STREET’S glass ceiling cracked at last on March 1st, as Jane Fraser took charge of Citigroup, becoming the first woman to head a big American bank. That cracking sound has also been echoing across the rest of America Inc. Last year Carol Tomé became boss of UPS, a package-delivery giant. In January Rosalind Brewer became only the third black woman ever to run a Fortune 500 company (Walgreens Boots Alliance, a pharmacy chain). A month later Thasunda Brown Duckett was picked to run TIAA, a big pension fund.

Yet despite progress for women in the workplace, America still has a long way to go according to The Economist’s latest glass-ceiling index, which ranks conditions for working women across 29 countries. As usual, Nordic countries performed best overall in our ranking, with Sweden, Iceland, Finland and Norway taking the top four spots. At the bottom is South Korea, which scored just 25 out of 100 on our index, less than half the average for the OECD club of industrialised countries.

Publication Date: 4 March 2021

Publication Site: The Economist

How covid-19 triggered America’s first female recession in 50 years

Mary Pat Campbell

Link: https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2021/03/08/how-covid-19-triggered-americas-first-female-recession-in-50-years

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RECESSIONS TYPICALLY hit men harder than women, not least because they tend to disproportionately affect male-dominated industries, such as construction and manufacturing. In the recession of 2008-09, for example, men accounted for some three-quarters of American job losses. The most recent downturn, by contrast, has weighed on female-dominated sectors, such as retail and hospitality. Last year the share of women on American payrolls fell from 50% in March 2020 to 49.1% two months later, before inching back up to 49.8% today.

A recent paper by three economists at the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco suggests that some of the disparity can be explained by differences in parental responsibilities. Using monthly data from the Census Bureau’s Current Population Survey, the researchers analysed the labour-market outcomes of four groups of prime-age workers (those aged from 25 to 54): mothers; fathers; women without children; and men without children. They found that women suffered more than men in the wake of the pandemic but mothers fared worst of all. Between February and December the employment rate of mums dropped by 7% and their labour-force participation rate fell by 4%. Fathers, by comparison, suffered the least among the four groups—even less than childless men. Their employment and labour-force participation rates fell by 4% and 1%, respectively. Another recent study from the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis found that that the effect was biggest for mothers with children under five.

Publication Date: 8 March 2021

Publication Site: The Economist

31.2% of Households Receiving Unemployment Insurance Report Having a Very Difficult Time Paying for Food, Rent, Other Household Expenses

Mary Pat Campbell

Link: https://www.census.gov/library/stories/2021/03/despite-unemployment-insurance-many-households-struggle-to-meet-basic-needs.html?

Excerpt:

From Feb. 3- 15, about one in 10 (9.4%) U.S. households reported using unemployment insurance to meet spending needs.

About 16.0% of households that used unemployment insurance and had a mortgage or were renting reported having no confidence in their ability to meet their next month’s rent or mortgage payment — higher than the 6.2% of households that had a mortgage or were renting that did not use unemployment insurance.

In addition, about one in six households (16.1%) that used unemployment insurance reported that it was very likely that they would experience eviction or foreclosure in the next two months.

Author(s): ABINASH MOHANTY 

Publication Date: 9 March 2021

Publication Site: U.S. Census Bureau

The Lost Year: What the Pandemic Cost Teenagers

Mary Pat Campbell

Link: https://www.propublica.org/article/the-lost-year-what-the-pandemic-cost-teenagers

Excerpt:

As many of these experts have noted, the cost of restrictions on youth has gone beyond academics. The CDC found that the proportion of visits to the emergency room by adolescents between ages 12 and 17 that were mental-health-related increased 31% during the span of March to October 2020, compared with the same months in 2019.A study in the March 2021 issue of Pediatrics, the journal of the American Academy of Pediatrics, of people aged 11 to 21 visiting emergency rooms found “significantly higher” rates of “suicidal ideation” during the first half of 2020 (compared to 2019), as well as higher rates of suicide attempts, though the actual number of suicides remained flat.

….

Even with fall sports canceled, the Hobbs school district, with almost 10,000 students, was still hoping to open the new school year for as much in-person instruction as possible. More than just scholastic considerations were driving this. In late April, six weeks into the spring’s pandemic lockdowns, the community had been stunned by the suicide of an 11-year-old boy, Landon Fuller, an outgoing kid who loved going to school and had, his mother said, struggled with the initial lockdowns.

New Mexico has consistently had one of the highest youth suicide rates in the country — it’s roughly twice the national average — and preliminary state statistics would later show the 2020 rate as unchanged. Nationwide, deaths by suicide in the 10-to-24 age group increased by half between 2007 and 2018, a trend that has been linked to multiple factors, from the growing availability of guns to the spread of smartphones and social media. In New Mexico, mental health experts say, the factors also include high rates of depression on Native American reservations, and rural isolation in general.

Author(s): Alec MacGillis

Publication Date: 8 March 2021

Publication Site: ProPublica

Early Warning Systems Can Help States Identify Signs of Fiscal Distress

Mary Pat Campbell

Link: https://www.pewtrusts.org/en/research-and-analysis/articles/2021/03/04/early-warning-systems-can-help-states-identify-signs-of-fiscal-distress?utm_campaign=2021-03-09+Squeeze+map&utm_medium=email&utm_source=Pew

Excerpt:

In a white paper for The Pew Charitable Trusts, Eric Scorsone and Natalie Pruett of the Michigan State University Extension’s Michigan Center for Local Government Finance & Policy assessed local government early warning systems through case studies in Colorado, Louisiana, Ohio, and Pennsylvania. Each of these states applies various financial ratios—an approach known as ratio analysis—and other indicators to identify signs of local fiscal distress. Ratio analysis uses fractions that capture financial or economic activity within a locality—such as total expenditures over total revenues—to measure solvency, the ability to pay debts and liabilities over the short or long term. Ultimately, the authors determined that there isn’t one optimal system and instead offer several recommendations for states to build or improve their early warning systems.

The authors present detailed descriptions of the four states’ systems and analyze trade-offs and implications of the indicators employed to measure different types of solvency. They offer a variety of recommendations for states to consider, including use of indicators for four types of solvency:

Author(s): Jeff Chapman

Publication Date: 4 March 2021

Publication Site: Pew Trusts

Schumer spokesman: Federal pandemic relief eliminates NYS deficit

Mary Pat Campbell

Link: https://nypost.com/2021/03/08/schumer-federal-pandemic-relief-eliminates-nys-deficit/

Excerpt:

The American Rescue Plan provides state government coffers with $12.6 billion in unrestricted aid, a measure championed by Schumer, the New York senior senator. The measure passed the Senate in a 50-49 vote and is expected to clear the Democratic-led House of Representatives on Tuesday and delivered to President Biden for approval.

Asked if the geyser of pandemic relief eliminates the needs for tax hikes or spending cuts, Roefaro told The Post, “the statement speaks for itself.”

Roefaro continued, “How NY decides its budgetary policy is a matter for the state legislature and the administration. Our job was to deliver resources to help NY confront and overcome Covid and it’s impacts, including the fiscal impact. And we did that fully and completely.”

Author(s): Carl Campanile, Bernadette Hogan

Publication Date: 8 March 2021

Publication Site: NY Post

The American Rescue Plan’s Money Cannon Is Great, But Not Enough

Mary Pat Campbell

Link: https://www.dailyposter.com/p/the-american-rescue-plans-money-cannon

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As a spending bill, the ARP’s impact cannot be overstated. It is the mirror opposite of the Trump tax cuts, targeting most of its benefits to the bottom end of the income ladder, rather than the top. It will send stimulus checks up to $1,400 to an estimated 280 million Americans, continue additional $300 weekly unemployment benefits until the end of August, and distribute up $3,600 to families per child through monthly payments over one year beginning on July 1.

These three measures are expected to increase the incomes of the poorest 20 percent of Americans by an average of 33 percent, while the poorest 60 percent could see their incomes increase by an average of 11 percent, according to estimates from the Institute on Taxation and Economic Policy. One estimate suggests that the legislation will slash child poverty in half.

Author(s): David Sirota, Julia Rock, Andrew Perez

Publication Date: 11 March 2021

Publication Site: The Daily Poster

Russia’s Covid-19 Vaccine Is Embraced Abroad, Snubbed at Home

Mary Pat Campbell

Link: https://www.wsj.com/articles/russias-covid-19-vaccine-is-embraced-abroad-snubbed-at-home-11615200713

Excerpt:

Last summer, Russia was the first nation to announce its approval of a Covid-19 vaccine. Dozens of countries from Mexico to Iran have since ordered millions of doses of the shot, known as Sputnik V.

But at home, Russia’s vaccination campaign has sputtered in the midst of one of the world’s highest levels of vaccine hesitancy. While the vaccine is free and widely available, only 3.5% of Russians have received at least one shot, compared with 32.1% in the U.K., according to Our World in Data, a project based at Oxford University that tracks the global vaccine rollout. In the U.S., it’s about 18%. Recent surveys show that less than a third of Russians are willing to get the Sputnik V vaccine.

Behind the skepticism are lingering doubts about Sputnik V’s rapid development and an ingrained distrust of authority stemming from the country’s Soviet past. Polls show many Russians believe the coronavirus is a man-made biological weapon. At the same time, surveys indicate a strong current of Covid-19 disbelief in Russia.

Author(s): Georgi Kantchev

Publication Date: 8 March 2021

Publication Site: Wall Street Journal

Warren’s Wealth Tax Enriches Foreign Billionaires

Mary Pat Campbell

Link: https://www.wsj.com/articles/warrens-wealth-tax-enriches-foreign-billionaires-11615227317

Excerpt:

According to estimates conducted for Ms. Warren by University of California-Berkeley economists Emmanuel Saez and Gabriel Zucman, only about 100,000 families, or “less than 1 out of 1,000,” would pay the tax, which they estimate would raise “around $3 trillion over the ten-year budget window 2023-2032, of which $0.4 trillion would come from the billionaire 1% surtax.”

Yet Tax Foundation economists discovered a surprising consequence when we ran the proposal through our general equilibrium tax model last year. The model showed that despite being a massive tax, raising nearly $300 billion a year, the tax had only a modest impact on gross domestic product. How can that be?

The model predicted that wealthy U.S. citizens would sell their assets at fire-sale prices to pay the tax. Because the U.S. is an open economy, many of these assets would be bought by foreign investors at the discounted prices. Thus, while a wealth tax wouldn’t shrink the U.S. economy much, it would change who owns U.S. assets. What Jeff Bezos, Warren Buffett and Mark Zuckerberg sell, Jack Ma, Carlos Slim and the sultan of Brunei might buy — and they’d be exempt from the U.S. wealth tax.

Author(s): Scott A. Hodge

Publication Date: 8 March 2021

Publication Site: Wall Street Journal

Finding ‘Anomalies’ Illustrates 2020 Census Quality Checks Are Working

Mary Pat Campbell

Link: https://www.census.gov/newsroom/blogs/random-samplings/2021/03/finding_anomalies.html?utm_campaign=20210309msc20s1ccpuprs&utm_medium=email&utm_source=govdelivery

Excerpt:

So far in 2020 Census processing, 27 of the 33 anomalies we’ve found are of this type. Let me give a couple of examples.

Miscalculating age for missing birthdays. We found that our system was miscalculating ages for people who included their year of birth but left their birthday and month blank. We fixed this with a simple code correction. Making sure ages calculate correctly helps us with other data processing steps for matching and removing duplicate responses.

Incorrectly sorting out self-responses from group quarters residents. The 2020 Census allowed people to respond online or by phone without using the pre-assigned Census ID that links their response to their address. As a result, some people who live in group quarters facilities, such as nursing homes, were able to respond on their own even though they were also counted through the separate Group Quarters Enumeration operation. This also makes their address show up as a duplicate — as both a group quarters facility and a housing unit. Our business rules sort out these duplicate responses and addresses by accepting the response coming from the group quarters operation and removing the response and address appearing as a housing unit. We found an error in how this rule was being carried out. The code was correctly removing the duplicate address but wasn’t removing the duplicate response. We fixed this with another code correction, which enables us to avoid overcounting these residents. 

Author(s): MICHAEL THIEME, ASSISTANT DIRECTOR FOR DECENNIAL CENSUS PROGRAMS, SYSTEMS AND CONTRACTS

Publication Date: 9 March 2021

Publication Site: U.S. Census Bureau

Keeping Workers Safe: What Do the Numbers Say?

Mary Pat Campbell

Link: https://knowledge.wharton.upenn.edu/article/keeping-workers-safe-what-do-the-numbers-say/?utm_source=kw_newsletter&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=2021-03-09

Excerpt:

Smith-McLallen: In a broad sense, what the nonessential business closure policy did was to create a situation that limited interpersonal contact for nonessential workers who were staying at home. But it also limited contact for essential workers who were perhaps commuting with fewer people, for example, and not necessarily exposed to all of the people who were staying at home. That secondary protective effect was very effective at reducing cases.

Another thing about that secondary protective effect is we might think that if there would have been no nonessential business closure — if the nonessential workers had gone out to work — their infection rates would have been the same as we observed among the essential workers. There would be no difference. That’s what the results of our study speak to. However, there is a real possibility that the rates for everyone would have been considerably higher, even higher than what we observed in the essential worker population, just because of the increased contact and exposure across the board.

What I think policymakers should take from this research is that with new strains of the virus being discovered, if we reach a point where we need to aggressively limit contact and transmission, nonessential business closure policies can be effective. And now we can quantify just how effective they can be.

Author(s): Hummy Song, Aaron Smith-McLallen

Publication Date: 9 March 2021

Publication Site: Knowledge @ Wharton

How Economic Recovery Hinges on the Vaccine Rollout

Mary Pat Campbell

Link: https://knowledge.wharton.upenn.edu/article/how-economic-recovery-hinges-on-the-vaccine-rollout/?utm_source=kw_newsletter&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=2021-03-09

Excerpt:

At the current pace of around 1.5 million doses per day, PWBM said it expects economic recovery “to continue but proceed gradually through the middle of year,” with employment rising to nearly 152 million in July and four-quarter real GDP growth of around 5% in the third quarter. Averaging over the full year of 2021, PWBM projected that raising the rate of daily vaccinations to 3 million or more would increase employment by nearly 1 million and real GDP growth by about a third of a percentage point.

The effects on the labor market that PWBM projected are largest in the summer, “which is when how quickly you’re able to vaccinate people makes the biggest difference,” said Arnon. At 2 million vaccinations a day, say, by the end of the year, most of the people who want it would have been vaccinated, he noted.

Author(s): Alex Arnon

Publication Date: 9 March 2021

Publication Site: Knowledge @ Wharton