Month: March 2021

Infection fatality rate of COVID-19 inferred from seroprevalence data

Mary Pat Campbell

Link: https://www.who.int/bulletin/online_first/BLT.20.265892.pdf

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Results I included 61 studies (74 estimates) and eight preliminary national estimates. Seroprevalence estimates ranged from 0.02% to 53.40%. Infection fatality rates ranged from 0.00% to 1.63%, corrected values from 0.00% to 1.54%. Across 51 locations, the median COVID-19 infection fatality rate was 0.27% (corrected 0.23%): the rate was 0.09% in locations with COVID-19 population mortality rates less than the global average (< 118 deaths/million), 0.20% in locations with 118–500 COVID-19 deaths/million people and 0.57% in locations with > 500 COVID-19 deaths/million people. In people < 70 years, infection fatality rates ranged from 0.00% to 0.31% with crude and corrected medians of 0.05%.

Author(s): John P A Ioannidis

Publication Date: 14 September 2020

Publication Site: Bulletin of the World Health Organization

Cuomo and the Covid Death Count

Mary Pat Campbell

Link: https://www.wsj.com/articles/cuomo-and-the-covid-death-count-11615590254

Excerpt:

Far from the cable studios, happily, researchers are seeking a more serious understanding of the pandemic’s toll. One study finds that those who died of Covid-19 lost on average 9.3 years of life, equal to the remaining life expectancy of a 78-year-old.

The highest-cost deaths, it follows, were likely those not directly caused by the illness. In separate studies, U.S. government and Virginia Commonwealth University researchers say a third of “excess deaths” might fall into this category — delayed medical care, unemployment stress, substance abuse, suicide, depression, etc. One study looked at the effect of unemployment and predicted 30,231 additional deaths over a 12-month period.

What does this mean? Suppose half of these were unrecognized Covid deaths. Even so, the remaining half — accounting for 15% of excess deaths — would have to be no younger than 53 on average for fully one-third of the years lost in the pandemic to have been lost by somebody who didn’t die of Covid.

Author(s): Holman W. Jenkins, Jr.

Publication Date: 12 March 2021

Publication Site: Wall Street Journal

Public Health Lessons Learned From Biases in Coronavirus Mortality Overestimation

Mary Pat Campbell

Link: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7511835/

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In testimony before US Congress on March 11, 2020, members of the House Oversight and Reform Committee were informed that estimated mortality for the novel coronavirus was 10-times higher than for seasonal influenza. Additional evidence, however, suggests the validity of this estimation could benefit from vetting for biases and miscalculations. The main objective of this article is to critically appraise the coronavirus mortality estimation presented to Congress. Informational texts from the World Health Organization and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention are compared with coronavirus mortality calculations in Congressional testimony. Results of this critical appraisal reveal information bias and selection bias in coronavirus mortality overestimation, most likely caused by misclassifying an influenza infection fatality rate as a case fatality rate. Public health lessons learned for future infectious disease pandemics include: safeguarding against research biases that may underestimate or overestimate an associated risk of disease and mortality; reassessing the ethics of fear-based public health campaigns; and providing full public disclosure of adverse effects from severe mitigation measures to contain viral transmission.

Author(s): Ronald B. Brown

Publication Date: 12 August 2020

Publication Site: Cambridge University Press Public Health Emergency Collection

Bipartisan Opportunism Is to Blame for California’s High Tax Rate

Mary Pat Campbell

Link: https://www.hoover.org/research/bipartisan-opportunism-blame-californias-high-tax-rate

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A current example of California’s bipartisan capitulation to public employees is OPEB—formally, “Other Post-Employment Benefits”—chiefly, health insurance for retired employees and their dependents costing the state $10 billion per year. Those benefits are provided even when the retiree or dependent has another job that offers insurance, is covered by Medicare, or is entitled to premium support from the Affordable Care Act.

No other state in America showers such subsidies on retired employees, who are already entitled to the highest pensions in the land. But both parties have been obstacles to OPEB reform because both fear retribution from government employee unions. If you have any doubt about that, check out donations to legislators on both sides of the aisle.

Author(s): David Crane

Publication Date: 12 March 2021

Publication Site: Hoover Institution at Stanford University

The impact of COVID-19 on capital markets, one year in

Mary Pat Campbell

Link: https://www.mckinsey.com/business-functions/strategy-and-corporate-finance/our-insights/the-impact-of-covid-19-on-capital-markets-one-year-in?cid=other-eml-alt-mip-mck&hdpid=4b564a38-09f9-4528-824d-dee252ee7885&hctky=9138280&hlkid=e8b6bdb00522438aa9fd35e51c54635b#

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The same forces widening the gap between sectors are also amplifying differences within sectors, mostly because the winners are pulling ahead. In every single sector, including those facing significant industry headwinds, some companies increased their market value during the course of the crisis (Exhibit 4).

For example, while the restaurant industry has struggled mightily during the pandemic, Domino’s Pizza delivered total returns to shareholders (TRS) of 26 percent, thanks to its technologically advanced business model and its ability to quickly ramp up delivery. Likewise, Peloton, maker of internet-enabled exercise bikes, saw its shares’ value increase more than fivefold even as most traditional gyms have struggled under lockdowns. And while it may not be surprising that many online-first retailers did very well over the past year, some traditionally brick-and-mortar operators such as Target (TRS of 64 percent) managed to adapt and outperform even as the pandemic hammered the retail sector.

Author(s): Chris Bradley, Peter Stumpner

Publication Date: 10 March 2021

Publication Site: McKinsey

Memo to Dems: Don’t Lift SALT Cap to Help the Rich, Help States Directly Instead

Mary Pat Campbell

Link: https://www.realclearpolicy.com/articles/2021/03/01/memo_to_dems_dont_lift_salt_cap_to_help_the_rich_help_states_directly_instead_685729.html

Excerpt:

But at a national level, it is much less clear that the SALT deduction makes for good politics. Most of the key swing states, including Georgia, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, New Hampshire, and Arizona were below the national average in the value of the SALT deduction as a percent of adjusted gross income before the new cap. Florida and Nevada were in the bottom seven states.  

Of course, states and local governments do need help from the Federal government. In fact, more help is needed now more than ever. The pandemic is hurting state and local government revenues, to the tune of around $350 billion over the next three years. Now is the time to enact a better federal support system for states and localities, and to replace the SALT deduction, rather than revert to the previous system. 

The good news is that there are a number of good policy options available to legislators, many of which were outlined at a recent Brookings event on this subject, and any of which would be much fairer and more effective than lifting the SALT deduction cap. The key point is that Congress should help states directly, rather than through the long, roundabout route of a regressive tax break to individuals.  

Author(s): Richard V. Reeves, Christopher Pulliam

Publication Date: 1 March 2021

Publication Site: Real Clear Policy

Florence Nightingale is a Design Hero

Mary Pat Campbell

Link: https://medium.com/nightingale/florence-nightingale-is-a-design-hero-8bf6e5f2147

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On trips through Europe, Nightingale displayed a natural inclination to record data: distance and times traveled were neatly cataloged in her journal. She hoarded information pamphlets, especially those concerning laws, social conditions, and benevolent institutions. In a Parisian salon, Mary Clarke showed Nightingale how bold, independent, intelligent, and equal to men a woman can be.

In Egypt, Nightingale cruised the Nile and discovered ancient mysticism. Near Thebes, God called Florence Nightingale to nursing. God called me in the morning and asked me would I do good for him alone without reputation. But rich kids do not become nurses. Nursing was below Nightingale’s class. Her family disapproved.

Author(s): RJ Andrews

Publication Date: 15 July 2019

Publication Site: Nightingale at Medium

China’s Youthful, Debt-Fueled Spending Spree Sparks a Reckoning

Mary Pat Campbell

Link: https://www.wsj.com/articles/chinas-youthful-debt-fueled-spending-spree-sparks-a-reckoning-11615631400

Excerpt:

Chinese regulators attempting to rein in Ant Group Co. and a swelling online-lending industry have a target in their sights: the excessive, debt-fueled lifestyles of the country’s youth.

Leading up to last year’s coronavirus pandemic, a new generation of tech-savvy and free-spending citizens helped power rising consumption, a growing driver of China’s economy.

Many used short-term loans to pay for expenses such as prestige cosmetics, electronic gadgets and costly restaurant meals. They found credit easy to obtain, thanks to Ant and other Chinese financial-technology companies that provided unsecured loans to millions of people who didn’t have bank-issued credit cards. In 2019, online loans accounted for as much as half of short-term consumer loans in China, according to estimates from Fitch Ratings.

Now, new financial regulations are forcing lenders to reassess their business strategies and have sparked a reckoning about the American-style borrowing and spending habits of China’s younger population. Starting in 2022, Ant and its peers will have to fund at least 30% of the loans they make together with banks, a rule designed to make online lenders bear more risk.

Author(s): Xie Yu

Publication Date: 13 March 2021

Publication Site: Wall Street Journal

Drop in South Africa Cases Fuels Queries — Steep decline remains a mystery in country that hasn’t ramped up vaccines or lockdowns

Mary Pat Campbell

Link: https://www.wsj.com/articles/south-africas-drop-in-covid-19-cases-adds-to-questions-about-waves-of-infections-11615734003

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Since mid-January, confirmed Covid-19 infections in South Africa have fallen from a record of nearly 22,000 a day to around 1,000, without a large-scale vaccination campaign or stringent lockdown. Fewer than 5% of Covid-19 tests are finding traces of the virus, a sign health agencies are missing fewer cases. The government has lifted most remaining restrictions for the country of 60 million people.

The cause of this steep decline in cases remains somewhat of a mystery. As in other countries that have at some point experienced surprising drops in Covid-19 cases — such as India, Pakistan and some parts of Brazil — epidemiologists and virologists are piecing together different explanations for why the outbreak in South Africa isn’t following patterns set elsewhere.

Those include important population groups reaching sufficient levels of immunity to slow transmission, people sticking more closely to social-distancing rules, such as wearing masks and voluntarily reducing contacts, when deaths were mounting before the decline.

Author(s): Gabriele Steinhauser

Publication Date: 14 March 2021

Publication Site: Wall Street Journal

States Are Finding More Unreported Covid-19 Deaths

Mary Pat Campbell

Link: https://www.wsj.com/articles/states-are-finding-more-unreported-covid-19-deaths-11615730402

Excerpt:

Ohio in February announced more than 4,000 additional deaths while reconciling its data, and Indiana added about 1,500. Smaller revisions have also recently come from Virginia, Minnesota and Rhode Island. On Thursday, authorities in West Virginia said medical providers hadn’t properly reported 168 deaths to the state’s public-health department.

“Nobody likes surprises, and nobody likes data that’s wrong because that’s what drives decisions,” said Ayne Amjad, West Virginia’s state health officer.

Like many countries, the U.S. is trying to track pandemic events nearly as they happen, and a big part of this effort has required speeding up how deaths are reported.

Author(s): Jon Kamp

Publication Date: 14 March 2015

Publication Site: Wall Street Journal

Behind Greensill’s Collapse: Detour Into Risky Loans

Mary Pat Campbell

Link: https://www.wsj.com/articles/behind-greensills-collapse-detour-into-risky-loans-11615611953

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Behind Mr. Greensill’s failure: The business went beyond the scope of what it initially set out to do. Many of Greensill’s loans went to a small circle of borrowers close to Mr. Greensill, as well as acquaintances and his biggest outside backers.

A Wall Street Journal review of internal Greensill records, including board minutes and emails, along with interviews with more than a dozen people familiar with Greensill’s business, reveals how the company obscured its riskier loans behind a safe but barely profitable supply-chain finance business.

Greensill took on bigger, riskier long-term loans. In some cases, the loans were given other names before they were sold on to investors in the Credit Suisse funds, obscuring who the borrower was or the type of loan, the Journal found.

Author(s): Duncan Mavin, Julie Steinberg

Publication Date: 13 March 2021

Publication Site: Wall Street Journal

Europe Confronts a Covid-19 Rebound as Vaccine Hopes Recede

Mary Pat Campbell

Link: https://www.wsj.com/articles/europe-confronts-a-covid-19-rebound-as-vaccine-hopes-recede-11615558520

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The European Union’s fight against Covid-19 is stuck in midwinter, even as spring and vaccinations spur hope of improvement in the U.S. and U.K.

Despite months of restrictions on daily life, new Covid-19 cases have been rising again in the EU since mid-February, as more-virulent virus strains outpace vaccinations.

By contrast, virus infections and deaths have been falling rapidly in the U.S. and U.K. since January as inoculations take off among the elderly and other vulnerable groups. U.S. infections and deaths, which were higher on a per capita basis for most of 2020, have fallen below the EU’s.

Author(s): Marcus Walker in Rome, Bertrand Benoit in Berlin and Stacy Meichtry in Paris

Publication Date: 12 March 2021

Publication Site: Wall Street Journal